MLB Draft preview: Eyeing talent, not need, at No. 6
The Pirates are unsure of how they'll utilize their sixth-overall pick in the Major League Baseball Draft on Sunday night in Atlanta. But, they do say they have a plan.
Ben Cherington and his front office haven't drafted based on needs at the major-league level in recent years because, unlike other professional sports leagues, most players won't see the field at that level for at least two years, with Paul Skenes being an exception. So, they've targeted the best player available on their draft board.
"The way that we view it is, taking the best player available is the best way to having long-term, sustainable success, ultimately, in the big leagues," director of amateur scouting Justin Horowitz said. "... At the end of the day, we're just trying to get as much impact talent as possible through the draft."
Skenes and Konnor Griffin, who recently surpassed Bubba Chandler as the Pirates' top overall prospect, according to Baseball America, are the Pirates' last two first-round picks. They selected 10 position players and 11 pitchers last season after using 14 of their 21 picks on pitchers the year prior. Approaches can change yearly, depending on the players available, according to Horowitz.
MLB Pipeline's Top 10 list of draft prospects is split between pitchers and position players. Ethan Holliday (Stillwater, Okla.) -- the brother of Orioles' Jackson Holliday and son of Matt Holliday -- is seen as the top prospect, but the consensus is that this year's draft is loaded with college pitching, led by Louisiana State University's Kade Anderson and Florida State's Jamie Arnold.
"We're confident in our ability to draft and develop pitching, certainly. If that's the way it falls and it's a pitcher, we'll be excited about that," Cherington said. "But, we have to create more offense too, we know that, as an organization. It's going to come down to the best player."
The Pirates will see how the board falls before selecting their next first-round pick. Until then, here's what we know.
FIRST-ROUND TARGETS
The Pirates have one pick on Day 1 and the first five picks could get interesting. Holliday and Anderson are at the top of most draft boards. From there, it seems to be a crapshoot. These are five players I'd keep an eye on.
1.Shortstop Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Arquette, 21, is ranked as the fifth-best prospect by Baseball America and sixth-best by MLB Pipeline. He's one of the best college hitters in this year's draft after slashing .354/.461/.654 with 19 home runs. He transferred from Washington to Oregon State this past season, moving from second base to shortstop. At 6-4, 220 pounds, he has the frame to stay there but could potentially move to third with a 60-grade arm.
With 55-grade power, Arquette sprays the balls to all fields and recorded a career-low 16.5% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate this season. The Diamondbacks drafted him in the 18th round of the 2022 draft.
2. Right-handed pitcher Seth Hernandez, Corona High School (Calif.)
This might be where "best player available" is best utilized. Hernandez is 6-4, 190 pounds and is ranked as the second-best prospect by Baseball America and third-best by MLB Pipeline. He's projected to go somewhere in the first eight picks and could go as high as No. 3 to the Mariners. He's considered the top high school pitcher in the draft and has been compared to Reds star Hunter Greene.
Hernandez's fastball can reach 100 mph but sits in the mid-90s as part of a four-pitch arsenal that includes a changeup, slider and curveball. He produced a 0.39 ERA this season, according to his high school's MaxPreps page, and struck out 105 batters while walking seven. He's committed to Vanderbilt and has two high school teammates -- shortstop Billy Carlson (No. 7) and third baseman Brady Ebel (No. 64) -- in the Top 100. The Pirates went the high-school route last year. Could they do it again with Hernandez?
3. Shortstop Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton High School (Okla.)
Willits is an intriguing high school shortstop, something the Pirates have always valued as they are normally the best athletes on the field at that level. Willits is no different. He comes from a baseball family. His dad, Reggie, played in the major-leagues and coached in the Yankees organization. He is currently the associate head coach at Oklahoma, where Eli is committed, and his brother Jaxon is a sophomore.
Willits, 17, is a switch-hitter who makes consistent linedrive contact. He has a 60-grade hit tool with average raw power. He could stick at shortstop as he has a 55-grade arm and field tools. However, his high motor and plus speed could allow him to move to center field. He's ranked as the third-best prospect by Baseball America and fifth-best by MLB Pipeline.
4. Catcher/outfield Ike Irish, Auburn
Irish and Arquette are considered the top two college hitters in this class, but some might consider Irish a reach at No. 6. He slashed .364/.469/.710 for the Tigers this year with 19 home runs and 58 RBIs. He's played catcher and right field for Auburn, but moves and throws well enough to profile as a corner outfielder at the next level.
He can hit to all fields, but there are questions about his 55-grade power tool. He hit two home runs in 62 games with wood bats over two summers in the Cape Cod League.
5. Left-handed pitcher Jamie Arnold, Florida State
Arnold, 21, is one of the top-ranked college pitchers and could be gone by the time the Pirates are on the clock. He's listed as the fourth-best prospect by MLB Pipeline and sixth-best by Baseball America. He'd provide the Pirates with an opportunity to bolster the organization's pitching depth and the freedom to move other prospects for offense.
Arnold produced a 2.98 ERA over 84 2/3 innings for the Seminoles this season while striking out 119 and walking 27. His fastball sits between 94-95 mph and he works in a changeup and sweeping slider that produced a 41% miss rate a season ago. He has a funky arm slot that has been compared to Chris Sale's, which keeps hitters off balance.
HOW THE DRAFT WORKS
Teams are assigned a bonus pool each year, which is the amount of money they can spend on that year's draft class. Each pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a slot value, which adds up to the team's total bonus pool. The Pirates have $14,088,400 this year, the eighth-highest amount.
Teams and players will often negotiate terms and agree on a signing bonus that often differs from the slot value, so they can leverage their allotted money in the best way possible. For example, the Pirates selected Henry Davis first overall in 2021 and signed him for $6.5 million, which was considerably lower than his $8.42 million slot value. The Pirates used that extra bonus pool money to persuade Chandler to forego college, signing him for about $2.1 million above his slot value.
It's something teams have to take into consideration when negotiating with players. High school players have leverage and often sign for above their slot value because they can decide to go to college. College players with eligibility remaining are in the same type of situation. The Pirates signed 19 of their 21 draft picks last year. Pitcher Brian Curley, their 16th-round pick, returned to college and transferred from VCU to Georgia. He's ranked 102nd by MLB Pipeline. High school pitcher Taylor Penn, the Pirates' last pick, also didn't sign and posted a 3.48 ERA in 14 appearances for Western Kentucky.
"Some kids are more signable and are ready to start their pro careers than others," Horowitz said. "Some kids in high school want to go straight to the pros, some decide that they want a massive financial investment to consider foregoing the opportunity to play in college. Then, even at the college level now, NIL deals are starting to impact the ability of pro teams to leverage the bonus pools that we have available. So it's a significant undertaking to figure out how best to deploy the bonus pool money that we have available to us."
After the 10th round, teams can spend a maximum of $150,000 to sign a draft pick without a penalty. If a team does, that extra amount is deducted from the bonus pool. Teams can spend 0-5% over their allotment, but have to pay a 75% tax on the overage. If a team surpasses its allotment by more than 5% and up to 10%, it loses a future first-round pick and must pay the 75% tax. An overage of 10% and up to 15% costs a first- and second-round pick, along with paying a 100% tax. If a team spends 15% more than its bonus pool, it loses two first-round picks and must pay a 100% tax, which is the steepest penalty.
In rounds 11-20, the Pirates will pick at Nos. 323, 353, 383, 413, 443, 473, 503, 533, 563, and 593.
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THE ASYLUM
MLB Draft preview: Eyeing talent, not need, at No. 6
The Pirates are unsure of how they'll utilize their sixth-overall pick in the Major League Baseball Draft on Sunday night in Atlanta. But, they do say they have a plan.
Ben Cherington and his front office haven't drafted based on needs at the major-league level in recent years because, unlike other professional sports leagues, most players won't see the field at that level for at least two years, with Paul Skenes being an exception. So, they've targeted the best player available on their draft board.
"The way that we view it is, taking the best player available is the best way to having long-term, sustainable success, ultimately, in the big leagues," director of amateur scouting Justin Horowitz said. "... At the end of the day, we're just trying to get as much impact talent as possible through the draft."
Skenes and Konnor Griffin, who recently surpassed Bubba Chandler as the Pirates' top overall prospect, according to Baseball America, are the Pirates' last two first-round picks. They selected 10 position players and 11 pitchers last season after using 14 of their 21 picks on pitchers the year prior. Approaches can change yearly, depending on the players available, according to Horowitz.
MLB Pipeline's Top 10 list of draft prospects is split between pitchers and position players. Ethan Holliday (Stillwater, Okla.) -- the brother of Orioles' Jackson Holliday and son of Matt Holliday -- is seen as the top prospect, but the consensus is that this year's draft is loaded with college pitching, led by Louisiana State University's Kade Anderson and Florida State's Jamie Arnold.
"We're confident in our ability to draft and develop pitching, certainly. If that's the way it falls and it's a pitcher, we'll be excited about that," Cherington said. "But, we have to create more offense too, we know that, as an organization. It's going to come down to the best player."
The Pirates will see how the board falls before selecting their next first-round pick. Until then, here's what we know.
FIRST-ROUND TARGETS
The Pirates have one pick on Day 1 and the first five picks could get interesting. Holliday and Anderson are at the top of most draft boards. From there, it seems to be a crapshoot. These are five players I'd keep an eye on.
1. Shortstop Aiva Arquette, Oregon State
Arquette, 21, is ranked as the fifth-best prospect by Baseball America and sixth-best by MLB Pipeline. He's one of the best college hitters in this year's draft after slashing .354/.461/.654 with 19 home runs. He transferred from Washington to Oregon State this past season, moving from second base to shortstop. At 6-4, 220 pounds, he has the frame to stay there but could potentially move to third with a 60-grade arm.
With 55-grade power, Arquette sprays the balls to all fields and recorded a career-low 16.5% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate this season. The Diamondbacks drafted him in the 18th round of the 2022 draft.
2. Right-handed pitcher Seth Hernandez, Corona High School (Calif.)
This might be where "best player available" is best utilized. Hernandez is 6-4, 190 pounds and is ranked as the second-best prospect by Baseball America and third-best by MLB Pipeline. He's projected to go somewhere in the first eight picks and could go as high as No. 3 to the Mariners. He's considered the top high school pitcher in the draft and has been compared to Reds star Hunter Greene.
Hernandez's fastball can reach 100 mph but sits in the mid-90s as part of a four-pitch arsenal that includes a changeup, slider and curveball. He produced a 0.39 ERA this season, according to his high school's MaxPreps page, and struck out 105 batters while walking seven. He's committed to Vanderbilt and has two high school teammates -- shortstop Billy Carlson (No. 7) and third baseman Brady Ebel (No. 64) -- in the Top 100. The Pirates went the high-school route last year. Could they do it again with Hernandez?
3. Shortstop Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton High School (Okla.)
Willits is an intriguing high school shortstop, something the Pirates have always valued as they are normally the best athletes on the field at that level. Willits is no different. He comes from a baseball family. His dad, Reggie, played in the major-leagues and coached in the Yankees organization. He is currently the associate head coach at Oklahoma, where Eli is committed, and his brother Jaxon is a sophomore.
Willits, 17, is a switch-hitter who makes consistent linedrive contact. He has a 60-grade hit tool with average raw power. He could stick at shortstop as he has a 55-grade arm and field tools. However, his high motor and plus speed could allow him to move to center field. He's ranked as the third-best prospect by Baseball America and fifth-best by MLB Pipeline.
4. Catcher/outfield Ike Irish, Auburn
Irish and Arquette are considered the top two college hitters in this class, but some might consider Irish a reach at No. 6. He slashed .364/.469/.710 for the Tigers this year with 19 home runs and 58 RBIs. He's played catcher and right field for Auburn, but moves and throws well enough to profile as a corner outfielder at the next level.
He can hit to all fields, but there are questions about his 55-grade power tool. He hit two home runs in 62 games with wood bats over two summers in the Cape Cod League.
5. Left-handed pitcher Jamie Arnold, Florida State
Arnold, 21, is one of the top-ranked college pitchers and could be gone by the time the Pirates are on the clock. He's listed as the fourth-best prospect by MLB Pipeline and sixth-best by Baseball America. He'd provide the Pirates with an opportunity to bolster the organization's pitching depth and the freedom to move other prospects for offense.
Arnold produced a 2.98 ERA over 84 2/3 innings for the Seminoles this season while striking out 119 and walking 27. His fastball sits between 94-95 mph and he works in a changeup and sweeping slider that produced a 41% miss rate a season ago. He has a funky arm slot that has been compared to Chris Sale's, which keeps hitters off balance.
HOW THE DRAFT WORKS
Teams are assigned a bonus pool each year, which is the amount of money they can spend on that year's draft class. Each pick in the first 10 rounds is assigned a slot value, which adds up to the team's total bonus pool. The Pirates have $14,088,400 this year, the eighth-highest amount.
Teams and players will often negotiate terms and agree on a signing bonus that often differs from the slot value, so they can leverage their allotted money in the best way possible. For example, the Pirates selected Henry Davis first overall in 2021 and signed him for $6.5 million, which was considerably lower than his $8.42 million slot value. The Pirates used that extra bonus pool money to persuade Chandler to forego college, signing him for about $2.1 million above his slot value.
It's something teams have to take into consideration when negotiating with players. High school players have leverage and often sign for above their slot value because they can decide to go to college. College players with eligibility remaining are in the same type of situation. The Pirates signed 19 of their 21 draft picks last year. Pitcher Brian Curley, their 16th-round pick, returned to college and transferred from VCU to Georgia. He's ranked 102nd by MLB Pipeline. High school pitcher Taylor Penn, the Pirates' last pick, also didn't sign and posted a 3.48 ERA in 14 appearances for Western Kentucky.
"Some kids are more signable and are ready to start their pro careers than others," Horowitz said. "Some kids in high school want to go straight to the pros, some decide that they want a massive financial investment to consider foregoing the opportunity to play in college. Then, even at the college level now, NIL deals are starting to impact the ability of pro teams to leverage the bonus pools that we have available. So it's a significant undertaking to figure out how best to deploy the bonus pool money that we have available to us."
After the 10th round, teams can spend a maximum of $150,000 to sign a draft pick without a penalty. If a team does, that extra amount is deducted from the bonus pool. Teams can spend 0-5% over their allotment, but have to pay a 75% tax on the overage. If a team surpasses its allotment by more than 5% and up to 10%, it loses a future first-round pick and must pay the 75% tax. An overage of 10% and up to 15% costs a first- and second-round pick, along with paying a 100% tax. If a team spends 15% more than its bonus pool, it loses two first-round picks and must pay a 100% tax, which is the steepest penalty.
PICKS AND SLOT VALUES
Here are the Pirates' picks and slot values:
• 1st: No. 6 ($7,558,600)
• 2nd: No. 50 ($1,934,700)
• Comp. B: No. 73 ($1,128,400)
• 3rd: No. 82 ($979, 500)
• 4th: No. 113 ($674,300)
• 5th: No. 144 ($499,000)
• 6th: No. 173 ($380,500)
• 7th: No. 203 ($297,400)
• 8th: No. 233 ($236,800)
• 9th: No. 263 ($206,100)
• 10th: No. 293 ($193,100)
In rounds 11-20, the Pirates will pick at Nos. 323, 353, 383, 413, 443, 473, 503, 533, 563, and 593.
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