DK: Do Tomlin's Steelers really play down to bad opponents?
Oh, they exist. I'd never argue that.
I've seen them up close and personal, from the Cleveland tie, to the back-to-back blown tires against the 1-6 Patriots and 2-7 Cardinals a couple years ago, to Ben Roethlisberger being unable to find a functioning X-ray machine in the bowels of Oakland's old Coliseum.
Mike Tomlin's Steelers unequivocally have underperformed against underdog opponents.
Sometimes.
Not often.
But still, maybe, a little too often?
With the two Ohio teams on the schedule these next two weeks, and with the entirety of the Nation poised to pour down endless pleas for their team to avoid 'the classic Tomlin trap game' or 'Tomlin coaching down to another bad team' or 'Tomlin not having his players ready to play,' I thought it'd be a fine time to dig deeper, with help from our own research ace Eric Bowser, into the actual data available on this topic.
The criteria we set was simple: A bad team would be defined as one that finished a season with six or fewer wins. As a result, nothing in 2025 would impact this data. (Nor would it, anyway, since these Steelers' only loss so far was to the 3-2 Seahawks.)
And so ...
• Since Tomlin became head coach in 2007 and running through the end of the 2024 season, his overall record was 183-107-2 for a .627 winning percentage. When facing teams that finished with six or fewer wins, he was -- and remains -- 71-23 for a .755 winning percentage.
Thus, I'd think we can all agree he's way better at beating bad teams than good teams, contrary to what your Uncle Billy, with the Iron pushed back against the belly, will shout at the TV the first time Myles Garrett gets a sack this weekend.
Yeah?
Cool, let's proceed ...
• It's reasonable, I'd suggest, to compare Tomlin in this context not to every NFL head coach in this span but, instead, to some of the other more prominent names. And we came up, semi-arbitrarily, with Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Sean McDermott, Sean McVay and, of course, John Harbaugh. And these were the records of all six coaches against opponents that finished with six or fewer wins:
Tomlin, obviously, lags behind our handpicked handful. Not by a ton, but by some. And although it's eminently fair to emphasize here that any coach who lasts as long as Tomlin is far more likely to run into valleys that offset the peaks of a franchise, so I'd affix at least a small asterisk next the figures for McVay and McDermott.
But against the rest, Tomlin's at the back of our small pack.
• Now, if accounting for every NFL head coach in this span -- and we did -- the expected winning percentage against bad teams, per a program we concocted through Microsoft's Copilot tool, was .809. But again, that's taking into account every head coach, even those with a single-game tenure.
Has Tomlin been great in these games?
Nope. That couldn't be clearer.
Is this really the mega-deal that most portray it to be?
Also nope. Also couldn't be clearer.
Bottom line: Beat the Browns, beat the Bengals, and no one really remembers it. Just like they won't remember that Tomlin, Arthur Smith and Teryl Austin grossly outcoached the Vikings' much more acclaimed staff over in Ireland and, the next time the Steelers are facing a top-tier opponent, they'll declare that the Steelers never outcoach anyone.
THE ASYLUM
DK: Do Tomlin's Steelers really play down to bad opponents?
Oh, they exist. I'd never argue that.
I've seen them up close and personal, from the Cleveland tie, to the back-to-back blown tires against the 1-6 Patriots and 2-7 Cardinals a couple years ago, to Ben Roethlisberger being unable to find a functioning X-ray machine in the bowels of Oakland's old Coliseum.
Mike Tomlin's Steelers unequivocally have underperformed against underdog opponents.
Sometimes.
Not often.
But still, maybe, a little too often?
With the two Ohio teams on the schedule these next two weeks, and with the entirety of the Nation poised to pour down endless pleas for their team to avoid 'the classic Tomlin trap game' or 'Tomlin coaching down to another bad team' or 'Tomlin not having his players ready to play,' I thought it'd be a fine time to dig deeper, with help from our own research ace Eric Bowser, into the actual data available on this topic.
The criteria we set was simple: A bad team would be defined as one that finished a season with six or fewer wins. As a result, nothing in 2025 would impact this data. (Nor would it, anyway, since these Steelers' only loss so far was to the 3-2 Seahawks.)
And so ...
• Since Tomlin became head coach in 2007 and running through the end of the 2024 season, his overall record was 183-107-2 for a .627 winning percentage. When facing teams that finished with six or fewer wins, he was -- and remains -- 71-23 for a .755 winning percentage.
Thus, I'd think we can all agree he's way better at beating bad teams than good teams, contrary to what your Uncle Billy, with the Iron pushed back against the belly, will shout at the TV the first time Myles Garrett gets a sack this weekend.
Yeah?
Cool, let's proceed ...
• It's reasonable, I'd suggest, to compare Tomlin in this context not to every NFL head coach in this span but, instead, to some of the other more prominent names. And we came up, semi-arbitrarily, with Bill Belichick, Andy Reid, Sean McDermott, Sean McVay and, of course, John Harbaugh. And these were the records of all six coaches against opponents that finished with six or fewer wins:
• McVay: 35-6, .854
• Reid: 77-15-1, .828
• Belichick: 75-16, .824
• McDermott: 32-8, .800
• Harbaugh: 67-17, .798
• Tomlin, 71-22-1, .755
You go, Uncle Billy! Woo!
Tomlin, obviously, lags behind our handpicked handful. Not by a ton, but by some. And although it's eminently fair to emphasize here that any coach who lasts as long as Tomlin is far more likely to run into valleys that offset the peaks of a franchise, so I'd affix at least a small asterisk next the figures for McVay and McDermott.
But against the rest, Tomlin's at the back of our small pack.
• Now, if accounting for every NFL head coach in this span -- and we did -- the expected winning percentage against bad teams, per a program we concocted through Microsoft's Copilot tool, was .809. But again, that's taking into account every head coach, even those with a single-game tenure.
Has Tomlin been great in these games?
Nope. That couldn't be clearer.
Is this really the mega-deal that most portray it to be?
Also nope. Also couldn't be clearer.
Bottom line: Beat the Browns, beat the Bengals, and no one really remembers it. Just like they won't remember that Tomlin, Arthur Smith and Teryl Austin grossly outcoached the Vikings' much more acclaimed staff over in Ireland and, the next time the Steelers are facing a top-tier opponent, they'll declare that the Steelers never outcoach anyone.
Reality's infinitely more interesting.
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