Halicke: Breaking down schedule, record prediction
This is it -- the last Sunday without NFL football this year.
The Steelers' season gets underway next Sunday against the Jets at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. It marks the start of a season filled with optimism, given the amount of roster turnover, but also just as much uncertainty. Finding sure footing for predicting the team's record by season's end is difficult.
There's no perfect science to predicting records. Last year, I opted to predict how the Steelers would fare month to month, given the way the schedule flowed. This season, I'm going back to game by game.
WEEK 1: at JETS
Prediction: Win (1-0)
Aaron Rodgers facing the team that made him fly across the country just to tell him in person they didn't want him playing for them anymore. And, while I have a ton of respect for new head coach Aaron Glenn and I like some of the players on defense, the Jets are going to be far too inconsistent, perhaps even volatile, on offense.
WEEK 2: vs. SEAHAWKS
Prediction: Win (2-0)
Revenge game for DK Metcalf, though I don't believe there's a ton of hard feelings there. I think the Seahawks have a very good defense, but I'm skeptical of their weapons on offense. I also fear Sam Darnold might have benefited more from Kevin O'Connell more than we saw a true breakout last season. Tough game, but the Steelers are good enough to win this at home.
WEEK 3: at PATRIOTS
Prediction: Loss (2-1)
The Patriots could be this year's 2023 Texans or 2024 Commanders, but more of a lite version. Mike Vrabel will establish a professional culture, and the Patriots have added a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. I don't know if they're a playoff team just yet, but enough to make a game in Foxborough a shaky place to win a game, especially since the Steelers historically haven't fared very well there.
WEEK 4: vs. VIKINGS
Prediction: Win (3-1)
While I believe O'Connell will still have a good offense and believe Brian Flores might be the best defensive coordinator in the game, the Vikings are bound for some sort of regression. This'll be tough for either side, but a game in Dublin means a whole lot more to the Rooney family than a game in London. I believe this team, in spite of the time change, will be as wired as can be for a historic game and find a way to come out victorious.
WEEK 5: Bye
WEEK 6: vs. BROWNS
Prediction: Win (4-1)
Not only are the Steelers facing the Browns at home, but under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 14-4 with a +124 point differential following a bye week. No need to overthink this one.
WEEK 7: at BENGALS (Thursday Night Football)
Prediction: Loss (4-2)
Just as Tomlin is great coming off a bye week, his teams are just as terrible on a short week. Despite the Bengals having arguably the worst defense in the league, a short week and the trio of Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is enough for me to chalk this up as a loss.
WEEK 8: vs. PACKERS (Sunday Night Football)
Prediction: Loss (4-3)
This could be a really, really great game. Steelers often play very well at home in primetime. I just think the Packers are a phenomenal football team. I thought they were one before they acquired Micah Parsons. Now, look out. This could still be a game the Steelers pull out a win, though. Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 14-7 with a +74 point differential following a mini bye (10 days or more of rest). Even so, I'm picking the Packers in a close game.
WEEK 9: vs. COLTS
Prediction: Win (5-3)
I have a ton of respect for head coach Shane Steichen. I think the Colts are one good quarterback away from being a playoff team. Whether it's Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson, either one is going to have a difficult time against the Steelers' defense.
WEEK 10: at CHARGERS (Sunday Night Football)
Prediction: Loss (5-4)
The Chargers are a very good team. They have a great defense. They have a great quarterback in Justin Herbert, who's among the very best in the second tier of quarterbacks in the league right now. I do, however, think they are beatable. Variables often play crucial roles in these games. Though it's not been an issue as much in recent years, flying out to the West Coast for a primetime game is never easy, so I'm giving the Chargers a slight edge here, though the Steelers could feasibly win this game.
WEEK 11: vs. BENGALS
Prediction: Win (6-4)
The Steelers have an automatic disadvantage in both matchups against the Bengals. The first game is on the road on a short week. And though this one is at home, the Bengals will be coming off a bye. So, it's not unreasonable to think the Bengals could sweep the season series. I just have such disrespect for their defense that I believe they'll be bad enough in one of the two matchups for the Steelers to pull out a win.
WEEK 12: at BEARS
Prediction: Win (7-4)
I don't want to hear anything about how the Steelers can't win at Soldier Field. Yeah, they haven't won a game there since 1995 (Norm Johnson game-winning field goal in overtime), but the Steelers have played there a grand total of two times since then. One of them was a three-point loss in 2009, and the other was the Al Villanueva game in 2017. I think the Bears will be better than last season under new head coach Ben Johnson, but the Steelers are still the better team. Plus, Rodgers is 24-5 with a 109.0 passer rating against the Bears in his career.
WEEK 13: vs. BILLS
Prediction: Loss (7-5)
The only advantage for the Steelers in this game is playing it at Acrisure Stadium. The Bills are the superior team with a superior quarterback. Not overthinking this one.
WEEK 14: at RAVENS
Prediction: Loss (7-6)
This rivalry is unpredictable, but I do believe the success the Ravens had playing the two games in Baltimore last year wasn't a fluke. And given the way Lamar Jackson played in those games, I don't think fans can cling to the narrative that the Steelers own him. These two teams have similar rosters, but the Ravens have a clear advantage at running back and quarterback. I'll go with the home team here.
WEEK 15: vs. DOLPHINS (Monday Night Football)
Prediction: Win (8-6)
The Dolphins are a pretty terrible football team. And despite the whole Tomlin-always-plays-down-to-the-competition narrative, he's actually 80-39-1 (.671 win percentage) in his career heading into a game against a team with a losing record. That even includes four losses to 0-1 teams in Week 2 since those opponents technically had a losing record at the time. Bottom line: It's Monday Night Football at home against a bad opponent. Oh yeah, and the Steelers haven't lost a home game on a Monday night since 1991 when Chuck Noll was head coach. Give me the Steelers this week.
WEEK 16: at LIONS
Prediction: Loss (8-7)
The Lions will likely regress a little bit, but they are still a very good team. They'll be in the thick of the race in the NFC. This being a road game while the Lions are fighting for a division crown in a loaded NFC North, I don't like the Steelers' chances.
WEEK 17: at BROWNS
Prediction: Win (9-7)
As long as this isn't another snow globe game, the Steelers should be able to pull out a win here. At least they are finally playing in Cleveland on a Sunday afternoon and not a Thursday night.
WEEK 18: vs. RAVENS
Prediction: Win (10-7)
Yeah, the Ravens are the better team. But, this rivalry doesn't always care for that. The Steelers will be fighting like crazy for a playoff spot and they'll be at home. I don't foresee a series sweep for either side.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I believe this team is better than last year's group. Their floor is always floating around .500, but this team's ceiling is much higher than the 2024 squad. Rodgers could have one more magical season up his sleeve, and this defense has the potential to be one of the very best in the league. If a lot of things go right, this team could win 12 games and win the AFC North, especially if the Ravens get off to a rough start (five of their first six games are brutal). However, there are too many unknowns to declare they are on the same level as the Bills, Chiefs or Ravens, the class of the AFC. Thus, a wild-card berth is the most likely outcome. 10-7 might not even be good enough to make the playoffs in a loaded conference.
Should the Steelers find themselves in a wild-card matchup against the Broncos, Chargers, Texans or whoever wins the AFC South, they could very well win a playoff game. However, I'm still very skeptical if the Steelers have to face Jackson, Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, regardless of what round.
THE ASYLUM
Halicke: Breaking down schedule, record prediction
This is it -- the last Sunday without NFL football this year.
The Steelers' season gets underway next Sunday against the Jets at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. It marks the start of a season filled with optimism, given the amount of roster turnover, but also just as much uncertainty. Finding sure footing for predicting the team's record by season's end is difficult.
There's no perfect science to predicting records. Last year, I opted to predict how the Steelers would fare month to month, given the way the schedule flowed. This season, I'm going back to game by game.
WEEK 1: at JETS
Prediction: Win (1-0)
Aaron Rodgers facing the team that made him fly across the country just to tell him in person they didn't want him playing for them anymore. And, while I have a ton of respect for new head coach Aaron Glenn and I like some of the players on defense, the Jets are going to be far too inconsistent, perhaps even volatile, on offense.
WEEK 2: vs. SEAHAWKS
Prediction: Win (2-0)
Revenge game for DK Metcalf, though I don't believe there's a ton of hard feelings there. I think the Seahawks have a very good defense, but I'm skeptical of their weapons on offense. I also fear Sam Darnold might have benefited more from Kevin O'Connell more than we saw a true breakout last season. Tough game, but the Steelers are good enough to win this at home.
WEEK 3: at PATRIOTS
Prediction: Loss (2-1)
The Patriots could be this year's 2023 Texans or 2024 Commanders, but more of a lite version. Mike Vrabel will establish a professional culture, and the Patriots have added a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. I don't know if they're a playoff team just yet, but enough to make a game in Foxborough a shaky place to win a game, especially since the Steelers historically haven't fared very well there.
WEEK 4: vs. VIKINGS
Prediction: Win (3-1)
While I believe O'Connell will still have a good offense and believe Brian Flores might be the best defensive coordinator in the game, the Vikings are bound for some sort of regression. This'll be tough for either side, but a game in Dublin means a whole lot more to the Rooney family than a game in London. I believe this team, in spite of the time change, will be as wired as can be for a historic game and find a way to come out victorious.
WEEK 5: Bye
WEEK 6: vs. BROWNS
Prediction: Win (4-1)
Not only are the Steelers facing the Browns at home, but under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 14-4 with a +124 point differential following a bye week. No need to overthink this one.
WEEK 7: at BENGALS (Thursday Night Football)
Prediction: Loss (4-2)
Just as Tomlin is great coming off a bye week, his teams are just as terrible on a short week. Despite the Bengals having arguably the worst defense in the league, a short week and the trio of Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is enough for me to chalk this up as a loss.
WEEK 8: vs. PACKERS (Sunday Night Football)
Prediction: Loss (4-3)
This could be a really, really great game. Steelers often play very well at home in primetime. I just think the Packers are a phenomenal football team. I thought they were one before they acquired Micah Parsons. Now, look out. This could still be a game the Steelers pull out a win, though. Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 14-7 with a +74 point differential following a mini bye (10 days or more of rest). Even so, I'm picking the Packers in a close game.
WEEK 9: vs. COLTS
Prediction: Win (5-3)
I have a ton of respect for head coach Shane Steichen. I think the Colts are one good quarterback away from being a playoff team. Whether it's Daniel Jones or Anthony Richardson, either one is going to have a difficult time against the Steelers' defense.
WEEK 10: at CHARGERS (Sunday Night Football)
Prediction: Loss (5-4)
The Chargers are a very good team. They have a great defense. They have a great quarterback in Justin Herbert, who's among the very best in the second tier of quarterbacks in the league right now. I do, however, think they are beatable. Variables often play crucial roles in these games. Though it's not been an issue as much in recent years, flying out to the West Coast for a primetime game is never easy, so I'm giving the Chargers a slight edge here, though the Steelers could feasibly win this game.
WEEK 11: vs. BENGALS
Prediction: Win (6-4)
The Steelers have an automatic disadvantage in both matchups against the Bengals. The first game is on the road on a short week. And though this one is at home, the Bengals will be coming off a bye. So, it's not unreasonable to think the Bengals could sweep the season series. I just have such disrespect for their defense that I believe they'll be bad enough in one of the two matchups for the Steelers to pull out a win.
WEEK 12: at BEARS
Prediction: Win (7-4)
I don't want to hear anything about how the Steelers can't win at Soldier Field. Yeah, they haven't won a game there since 1995 (Norm Johnson game-winning field goal in overtime), but the Steelers have played there a grand total of two times since then. One of them was a three-point loss in 2009, and the other was the Al Villanueva game in 2017. I think the Bears will be better than last season under new head coach Ben Johnson, but the Steelers are still the better team. Plus, Rodgers is 24-5 with a 109.0 passer rating against the Bears in his career.
WEEK 13: vs. BILLS
Prediction: Loss (7-5)
The only advantage for the Steelers in this game is playing it at Acrisure Stadium. The Bills are the superior team with a superior quarterback. Not overthinking this one.
WEEK 14: at RAVENS
Prediction: Loss (7-6)
This rivalry is unpredictable, but I do believe the success the Ravens had playing the two games in Baltimore last year wasn't a fluke. And given the way Lamar Jackson played in those games, I don't think fans can cling to the narrative that the Steelers own him. These two teams have similar rosters, but the Ravens have a clear advantage at running back and quarterback. I'll go with the home team here.
WEEK 15: vs. DOLPHINS (Monday Night Football)
Prediction: Win (8-6)
The Dolphins are a pretty terrible football team. And despite the whole Tomlin-always-plays-down-to-the-competition narrative, he's actually 80-39-1 (.671 win percentage) in his career heading into a game against a team with a losing record. That even includes four losses to 0-1 teams in Week 2 since those opponents technically had a losing record at the time. Bottom line: It's Monday Night Football at home against a bad opponent. Oh yeah, and the Steelers haven't lost a home game on a Monday night since 1991 when Chuck Noll was head coach. Give me the Steelers this week.
WEEK 16: at LIONS
Prediction: Loss (8-7)
The Lions will likely regress a little bit, but they are still a very good team. They'll be in the thick of the race in the NFC. This being a road game while the Lions are fighting for a division crown in a loaded NFC North, I don't like the Steelers' chances.
WEEK 17: at BROWNS
Prediction: Win (9-7)
As long as this isn't another snow globe game, the Steelers should be able to pull out a win here. At least they are finally playing in Cleveland on a Sunday afternoon and not a Thursday night.
WEEK 18: vs. RAVENS
Prediction: Win (10-7)
Yeah, the Ravens are the better team. But, this rivalry doesn't always care for that. The Steelers will be fighting like crazy for a playoff spot and they'll be at home. I don't foresee a series sweep for either side.
FINAL THOUGHTS
I believe this team is better than last year's group. Their floor is always floating around .500, but this team's ceiling is much higher than the 2024 squad. Rodgers could have one more magical season up his sleeve, and this defense has the potential to be one of the very best in the league. If a lot of things go right, this team could win 12 games and win the AFC North, especially if the Ravens get off to a rough start (five of their first six games are brutal). However, there are too many unknowns to declare they are on the same level as the Bills, Chiefs or Ravens, the class of the AFC. Thus, a wild-card berth is the most likely outcome. 10-7 might not even be good enough to make the playoffs in a loaded conference.
Should the Steelers find themselves in a wild-card matchup against the Broncos, Chargers, Texans or whoever wins the AFC South, they could very well win a playoff game. However, I'm still very skeptical if the Steelers have to face Jackson, Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes, regardless of what round.
NFL 2025 SEASON PREDICTION
AFC NORTH
1. (3)Ravens (11-6)
2. (6)Steelers (10-7)
3. Bengals (8-9)
4. Browns (3-14)
AFC SOUTH
1. (4)Texans (10-7)
2. Jaguars (9-8)
3. Colts (7-10)
4. Titans (4-13)
AFC EAST
1. (1)Bills (13-4)
2. Patriots (9-8)
3. Jets (7-10)
4. Dolphins (5-12)
AFC WEST
1. (2)Chiefs (11-6)
2. (5)Broncos (10-7)
3. (7)Chargers (9-8)
4. Raiders (8-9)
NFC NORTH
1. (1)Packers (14-3)
2. (5)Lions (12-5)
3. Vikings (9-8)
4. Bears (6-11)
NFC SOUTH
1. (4)Buccaneers (9-8)
2. Falcons (7-10)
3. Panthers (6-11)
4. Saints (3-14)
NFC EAST
1. (2)Eagles (13-4)
2. (6)Commanders (10-7)
3. Cowboys (9-8)
4. Giants (4-13)
NFC WEST
1. (3)Rams (12-5)
2. (7)49ers (9-8)
3. Seahawks (8-9)
4. Cardinals (7-10)
WILD-CARD ROUND
• Broncos over Texans
• Ravens over Steelers
• Chiefs over Chargers
• Lions over Buccaneers
• Rams over Commanders
• Eagles over 49ers
DIVISIONAL ROUND
• Bills over Broncos
• Chiefs over Ravens
• Packers over Lions
• Rams over Eagles
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
• Bills over Chiefs
• Packers over Rams
SUPER BOWL LX
• Bills over Packers
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