He seemed human.
He arrived at PNC Park on Tuesday afternoon by riding the Cubs' team bus rather than walking across the Allegheny. Although there's no photographic evidence, it's safe to presume he put on his socks and spikes one leg at a time. He then set one foot in front of the other as he strode to the podium in the press conference room. And when he spoke for the cameras and microphones, he did so without a thunderous boom, nor any halo about his head. He even misspoke once, giggling a bit before retracing his remark.
Hey, it happens, right?
I'm not a betting man, but I'd put down big bucks on Jake Arrieta being mortal.
For that matter, I'd also wager there's a reasonable chance he'll lose when pitching to the Pirates in the National League Wild Card on this Wednesday night. It might even be 50/50, if one weighs that his counterpart will be Gerrit Cole, holder of 19 wins to Arrieta's 22.
Not many locals would buy this, of course. To hear the skepticism -- check that, fatalism -- surrounding the most common forecasts for this game ... my goodness, it's a wonder that the Pirates will even show up for the socks and spikes part, much less compete.
"We're here, and we're ready," outfielder and powerful clubhouse presence Travis Snider was telling me on this Wild Card workout day. "Anybody can say and predict whatever they want. We know what we have. You can deal with the rest."
OK, I will, then. Ever the contrarian, right here in this column, I'll list my 1,908 reasons that the Pirates actually will advance to St. Louis.
And don't overthink that number ...
1. BECAUSE THEY'RE GOOD
Seems like this shouldn't require any reminder after 98 wins -- one more than their opponent, by the way -- but this is one of the greatest editions of the Pittsburgh Baseball Club in a 129-year history, and it didn't arrive at that by accident.
They aren't better than the Cubs at everything, but they are better:
As Joe Maddon himself put it Tuesday, "They have 98 wins, and we have 97 wins."
Yep. And if you're into this sort of thing, the Pirates were nothing less than Major League Baseball's best team after May 9, going 84-48, a far more accurate reflection of who they really are than the month that preceded it, when Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison both nosedived below Mendoza. It's also a group that got strong as the summer progressed, not least of which was with the deadline acquisitions of J.A. Happ, Aramis Ramirez and Michael Morse.
Add that up, and you're probably talking about the best team in the sport, especially when considering the Cardinals' late-season leveling and injury issues.
Pitching is the dominant element. It isn't the only one.
2. @JARRIETA34 SEEMS ... NERVOUS?
This is nothing more but one individual's observation, but Arrieta's strange, if wholly harmless, popping off at Pittsburgh fans on social media struck me as ... uncomfortable might be the word:
Now, maybe that's just his thing. Which is cool. No complaints here. It's a free world and a mostly free Twitter. Despite my inclusion on the second of the above tweets, I don't follow Arrieta's timeline, and I don't know much about his personality.
But I do believe this, from the general perspective: If you've got to constantly keep telling people how tough you are, you probably aren't that tough.
And I know this: The Pirates' players with whom I spoke about this Tuesday weren't at all appreciative of the language in that first tweet.
"Keeping hope alive?" one reliever said. "What's that mean, that we have no hope?"
Baseball isn't a sport fueled by emotion, so I wouldn't expect this to have any positive impact on the Pirates. It's not like they lack motivation in this setting. But it is a sport in which its participants can be undone by excessive emotion.
And arrogance. That also tends not to mesh well with baseball.
3. EXHIBIT A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcLUw3_oN1g
Just for fun, I retold the above tale to relative newcomers Arquimedes Caminero and Joakim Soria, neither of whom could believe it.
"Johnny Cueto dropped the ball?" Soria asked.
"And the home run was the next pitch?" Caminero followed up. Wow."
Believe what you will about a crowd's ability to impact sporting events, but there's a reason that home records are better than road records for nearly all teams in all sports. And in the Pirates' case, there's a reason they went 16-4 in front of sellouts this summer.
PNC Park hasn't been sold out since Aug. 22, but it will be overflowing -- with people and passion -- for this one. And these players sure sound like they feel it will matter:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NUeyKsleJ0
Arrieta was adamant, of course, that he sees the crowd as a positive, as well.
"I think the noise is something that you just have to deal with," he said. "Obviously, tomorrow night is going to be magnified more than most games, but it's expected. It's something I'm comfortable dealing with, and it's exciting. To be in an atmosphere where you've got 38,000-plus opposing fans ... it makes those moments enjoyable for me."
He bases that on zero precedent, it should be noted.
4. VIGORISH OVERLOAD
Before proceeding with actual analysis, I feel compelled to interrupt myself and remind that the baseball gods never take a vacation. In the season that saw the Pirates win 98 times, they still lost their last six at Miller Park.
And the only thing in this realm that the baseball gods hate more than the Pirates in Milwaukee is the Cubs on Planet Earth.
Sorry. Back to the mature stuff ...
5. JAKE CAN BE RAKED
Arrieta has pitched like a cyborg in his past 20 starts, recording an 0.86 ERA that's the second-lowest in any 20-start span -- only the legendary Bob Gibson was better, in 1968 -- since the stat was first kept in 1912. And that just begins to tell the tale: He's allowed only 1.5 hard-hit balls per game. He's induced as many ground-ball double plays as he's allowed extra-base hits. He's hit as many home runs -- two -- as he's given up.
In five starts against the Pirates this season, he has a 0.75 ERA and .151 opponents' batting average to go with 33 strikeouts and five walks.
There's nowhere to run from that.
"The guy's good," McCutchen said. "No question."
Cutch has a .348 lifetime batting average against him, 8 for 23 with two doubles and three walks, but the rest of such figures are terrifying: Neil Walker is 4 for 25, Aramis Ramirez 2 for 19, Pedro Alvarez 2 for 17, Francisco Cervelli 2 for 13, Gregory Polanco 3 for 16, Starling Marte 4 for 17, Josh Harrison 1 for 10, Jordy Mercer 0 for 4.
And yet, factor in that the Pirates will be seeing Arrieta for the third time in as many weeks, and some of his advantages -- in particular, his cross-body delivery that disguises the ball almost unfairly -- are sure to be lessened.
"The more you see a pitcher, the more comfortable you feel," Polanco said. "That's true for Arrieta and every pitcher."
Pirates
Kovacevic: 1,908 reasons Pirates can beat Cubs
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