How former star prospects do in NFL

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. – Much like the NFL Draft, looking back at previous NCAA recruiting classes can highlight several hits and misses that could’ve changed the direction of any team.

It’s never a given that a first-round pick won’t become a bust or that a five-star signee will go on to shatter NCAA records. College coaching staffs scour the country for the best fits for their program, recording measurements at camps much like scouts do when NFL prospects are sized up at the Senior Bowl and the combine. But, when it’s all said and done inevitably players slip through the cracks at both levels, either sliding out of the first round – or farther – during the draft, or maybe settling for a lesser star ranking on the recruiting trail.



Wednesday, as high school football players sign their national letter of intent, there will be one final class ranking – where Penn State figures to be around the top-15 – and individual rankings for several elite prospects in the class. As the recruiting circuit expands with camps across the country and showcases like the Rivals 5-star challenge and The Opening/Elite 11, plus all of their regional events, there’s more information and highlight packages available than ever before for college coaches to sift through.

Just as four- and five-star prospects headline recruiting classes, a big chunk of NFL teams' future success also comes down to hitting on middle to late-round picks, or in this case the two and three stars. Sending a former walk-on to the NFL like Penn State did last spring with Carl Nassib is an added bonus.

“You want to do a great job through your evaluation process, but then you'd love to get lucky on a few,” James Franklin said earlier this month. “You'd love to get a guy late in the process that commits to you that was a zero-star or one-star or two-star and goes on and is a college football Hall of Famer and a pro football player. That would be great.”

While Ezekiel Elliott was ranked by Rivals as the 15th best running back in the 2013 class – complete with a 4-star ranking as the 84th best prospect in the class – the 14 backs ahead of Elliott didn’t help turn around an NFL team like he did this season in Dallas. Many didn’t even thrive in college.

The running backs who were ranked ahead of him on signing day four years ago?

•Derrick Green: Signed with Michigan, transferred to TCU. College career: 1,039 yards, 9 TD.
•Thomas Tyner: Retired last February after missing his 2015 college season at Oregon with a shoulder injury.
•Greg Bryant: Signed with Notre Dame, transferred to a junior college, passed away May 21 after being shot while driving.
•Ty Isaac: Signed with USC, transferred to Michigan, 74 carries/417 yards/5 TDs last season.
•Taquan Mizzell: Signed with Virginia, 1,344 all-purpose yards, 7 TDs last season.
•Derrick Henry: 2015 Heisman Trophy winner out of Alabama, 2016 second-round pick by the Titans.
•Kelvin Taylor: Signed with Florida, 6th-round pick by the 49ers
•Alvin Kamara: Signed with Alabama, transferred to a community college, transferred to Tennessee where he played two seasons. Declared for NFL Draft after 596 rushing, 392 receiving yards and 13 total touchdowns this past season.
•Keith Ford: Signed with Oklahoma, transferred to Texas A&M, 126 carries/669 rushing yards/6 TDs last season
•Altee Tenpenny: Signed with Alabama and played for the Crimson Tide in 2013 and 2014. Transferred to UNLV and then Nicholls State. Passed away in a car wreck in 2015.
•Justin Davis: Signed with USC and had 110 carries/607 rushing yards/2 TDs last season.
•Ryan Green: Signed with Florida State, played RB and DB. Will play redshirt senior season next year.
•Terrell Newby: Signed with Nebraska, 190 carries/879 yards/8 total TDs last season.
•Tyren Jones: Signed with Alabama, was dismissed from the team in 2015, transferred to a community college and was arrested earlier this month.

Who else was in that 2013 Rivals 100 ranked ahead of Elliott? Former Bill O’Brien pledges and Nittany Lion quarterback Christian Hackenberg (24th), Penn State offensive lineman Brendan Mahon (58th) and former Penn State tight end Adam Breneman (78th) were among the selections.

“I always looked at the recruiting process a lot like the draft,” Franklin said. “If the guys that we recruit can turn out the way that we thought they would, kind of through our evaluation, all those kind of things, and then if you can get lucky on a few — Tom Brady. … Taking Tom Brady in the sixth round may be the best draft choice in the history of the NFL. And let's be honest, they didn't know.”

Bodies transform while players are in college, leaving some like former Penn State 3-star signee Allen Robinson breaking school records and exceeding their ranking. There’s no guarantee that the four- or five-star signees will turn into NFL stars.

Odell Beckham Jr., ranked as the 43rd overall prospect in the 2011 recruiting class by Rivals, had six receivers slotted ahead of him coming out of high school. Those players included George Farmer, Trey Metoyer, Sammy Watkins, Jarvis Landry, Colt Lyerla and Devon Blackmon.

How'd they do?

• Farmer signed as an undrafted free agent with the Cowboys and then landed with the Seattle Seahawks where he changed positions to cornerback and then running back. He signed a reserve/futures contract with Seattle earlier this month.

• Metoyr was suspended indefinitely in 2013 at Oklahoma and later was dismissed from the team. He's now out of football and serving eight years probation.

• Watkins, the fourth overall pick in the 2014 NFL draft, dealt with injuries and during his three seasons in the NFL had his most productive season in 2015 when he posted 60 catches for 1,047 yards and 9 touchdowns.

• Landry was selected in the second round (63rd overall) of the 2014 NFL Draft. He posted back-to-back 1,100-plus yard seasons and already eclipsed 3,000 receiving yards during his young NFL career.

• Lyerla was suspended and then quit football at Oregon. He later pled guilty to the possession of cocaine, went undrafted and signed with the Packers, but more legal trouble, including a 2014 DUI and a 2016 arrest for possession of heroine, have him out of football.

• Blackmon transfered from Oregon to BYU and went undrafted in the 2016 NFL draft.

The lists go on and on with college hits and misses and like the NFL the success or failure of a prospect is largely dictated by coaching and coordinator changes, injuries and discipline issues. Whether or not a top college player at any position translates to the NFL often is a mystery.

“We're not really trying to break the record of the most guys drafted,” Franklin said. “We're trying to graduate our players and go out and recruit the best college players we possibly can. If those guys end up turning into great NFL players, awesome. That's wonderful. … We're not really building this thing to be a feeder system to the NFL.”

While everyone looks like a star on signing day, how do some of these rankings play out in the NFL? Here’s a look, according to the 247Sports rankings, at how many former two, three, four, five-star and unranked prospects are on the Steelers’ roster.

Keep in mind the ranking system didn’t come into play until 2002 and even then there wasn’t nearly as much information available as there is now. This lack of rankings impacts some of the veterans on the roster, including Ben Roethlisberger who didn’t quarterback his team until his senior year of high school.

TWO STARS (8)
• B.J. Finney
• Ladarius Green
• David Johnson
• Tyler Matakevich
• Ricardo Mathews
• Mike Mitchell
• Roosevelt Nix
• Shamarko Thomas

THREE STARS (24)
• DaMarcus Ayers
• Le'Veon Bell
• Chris Boswell
• Sammie Coates
• Ross Cockrell
• Sean Davis
• David DeCastro
• Bud Dupree
• Ramon Foster
• William Gay
• Justin Gilbert
• Senquez Golson
• Cobi Hamilton
• Jerald Hawkins
• Darrius Heyward-Bey
• Chris Hubbard
• Jesse James
• Daniel McCullers
• Brian Mihalik
• Canaan Severin
• Fitzgerald Toussaint
• Cody Wallace
• Markus Wheaton
• Vince Williams

FOUR STARS (15)
• Artie Burns
• Marcus Gilbert
• Robert Golden
• Ryan Harris
• Cameron Heyward
• Jarvis Jones
• Landry Jones
• Zach Mettenberger
• Maurkice Pouncey
• Eli Rogers
• Ryan Shazier
• Lawrence Timmons
• Stephon Tuitt
• DeAngelo Williams
• Martavis Bryant*

FIVE STARS (2)
• Anthony Chickillo
• Xavier Grimble

UNRANKED (For some, rankings didn’t exist at the time) (14)
• Jordan Berry
• Antonio Brown
• Jordan Dangerfield
• L.J. Fort
• Javon Hargrave
• James Harrison
• Steven Johnson
• Johnny Maxey
• Arthur Moats
• Ben Roethlisberger
• Al-Hajj Shabazz
• Alejandro Villanueva
• L.T. Walton
• Greg Warren

Here's a look at notable high school players from the Rivals 100 since their first recruiting class in 2002:

2002
1) Vince Young
2) Haloti Ngata
3) Lorenzo Booker
4) Ben Olson
5) Reggie McNeal
8) Marcus Vick
28) Devin Hester
37) Maurice Clarett
59) Tamba Hali

2003
1) Ernie Sims
2) Reggie Bush
3) Whitney Lewis
4) Andre Caldwell
5) Kyle Wright
10) Greg Olsen
14) LaMarr Woodley
27) Donte Whitner
79) JaMarcus Russell

2004
1) Adrian Peterson
2) Ted Ginn Jr.
3) Early Doucet
4) Rhett Bomar
5) Keith Rivers
12) Anthony Morelli; Penn State
13) Chad Henne
24) Dan Connor; Penn State
28) Marshawn Lynch
37) Calvin Johnson

2005
1) Derrick Williams; Penn State
2) Patrick Turner
3) Eugene Monroe
4) Melvin Alaeze
5) Rey Maualuga
7) Mark Sanchez
10) Jonathan Stewart
18) DeSean Jackson
19) Justin King; Penn State
51) Ndamukong Suh
53) Brian Cushing
57) Jamaal Charles
90) Rashard Mendenhall

2006
1) Percy Harvin
2) Andre Smith
3) Chris Wells
4) Gerald McCoy
5) Sergio Kindle
6) Matthew Stafford
19) A.J. Wallace; Penn State
22) Tim Tebow
31) Jared Odrick
43) LeSean McCoy

2007
1) Jimmy Clausen
2) Joe McKnight (deceased)
3) Eric Berry
4) Ryan Mallett
5) Carlos Dunlap
27) Tyrod Taylor
28) Cam Newton
54) Dez Bryant
66) Aaron Hernandez (in prison for murder)
70) Bryan Bulaga
79) Chaz Powell; Penn State

2008
1) Terrelle Pryor
2) DaQuan Bowers
3) Mike Adams
4) Julio Jones
5) Patrick Johnson
9) A.J. Green
14) Blaine Gabbert
27) Jonathan Baldwin
68) Andrew Luck
81) Brandon Beachum; Penn State

2009
1) Bryce Brown
2) Rueben Randle
3) D.J. Fluker
4) Sheldon Richardson
5) Matt Barkley
6) Trent Richardson
9) Vontaze Burfict
10) Jelani Jenkins
12) Manti Te’o
51) Tajh Boyd
80) Lamar Miller
88) Eric Shrive; Penn State
94) Fletcher Cox
99) Alshon Jeffery

2010
1) Ronald Powell
2) Seantrel Henderson
3) Kyle Prater
4) Sharrif Floyd
5) Keenan Allen
39) Luke Joeckel
44) Silas Redd; Penn State
47) Jaylen Watkins
49) Khairi Fortt; Penn State
56) C.J. Mosley
84) Martavis Bryant

2011
1) Jadeveon Clowney
2) Curtis Grant
3) George Farmer
4) Cyrus Kouandijo
5) De’Anthony Thomas
6) Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
8) Karlos Williams
15) Sammy Watkins
18) Jarvis Landry
22) Stephon Tuitt
34) Braxton Miller
43) Odell Beckham Jr.
44) Anthony Chickillo
60) Kelvin Benjamin
65) Anthony Zettel; Penn State

2012
1) Dorial Green-Beckham
2) D.J. Humphries
3) Mario Edwards
4) Shaq Thompson
5) Johnathan Gray
8) Stefon Diggs
9) Noah Spence
10) Jameis Winston
12) T.J. Yeldon
17) Landon Collins
18) Nelson Agholor
42) Todd Gurley
45) Amari Cooper
55) Rushel Shell

2013
1) Robert Nkemdiche
2) Vernon Hargreaves III
3) Jaylon Smith
4) Carl Lawson
5) Laquon Treadwell
10) Jalen Ramsey
14) Laremy Tunsil
24) Christian Hackenberg; Penn State
31) Dorian Johnson
36) Derrick Henry
47) Joey Bosa
58) Brendan Mahon; Penn State
78) Adam Breneman; Penn State
82) Patrick Kugler
84) Ezekiel Elliott
89) Eli Apple

2014
1) Da’Shawn Hand
2) Myles Garrett
3) Jabrill Peppers
4) Leonard Fournette
5) Quin Blanding
6) Adoree’ Jackson

2015
1) Byron Cowart
2) Josh Rosen
3) Iman Marshall
4) Martez Ivey
5) Derwin James
75) Jordan Whitehead

2016
1) Rashan Gary
2) Dexter Lawrence
3) Shea Patterson
4) Gregory Little
5) Ben Davis
39) Miles Sanders
87) Michal Menet

2017
1) Najee Harris
2) Marvin Wilson
3) Cam Akers
4) Alex Leatherwood
5) Josh Kaindoh
11) Lamont Wade
51) Paris Ford
78) CJ Thorpe