If recent history is any indication, we should see another Penguins-Capitals playoff series sometime in late April.
Pittsburgh better hope so. They've never won any of their five Stanley Cups without facing Washington in the postseason.
For now, Game 53 will have to do and it should be a good one.
Here are the Penguins' three keys to victory:
1. Stay disciplined.
For a regular season game in the first week of February, it doesn't get much better than Penguins v. Capitals. And on a Friday night, too. Uptown figures to be amped.
“It’s going to be a great atmosphere here," Tom Kuhnhackl said Friday morning. "Especially on those rivalry nights, the fans are going to be in it, not just the players.”
The Penguins have won six in a row at PPG Paints Arena, where they've outscored opponents 29-14. Clearly they can feed off the crowd, but they can't get carried away with playing to the crowd's base instincts.
That means Ryan Reaves, too. Reaves has shown remarkable restraint in his first 49 games in black and gold, but after being a healthy scratch the last three games you can bet the big guy is feeling a little restless and might be tempted to leave an impression on the coaching staff, as well as Tom Wilson's face.
Reaves said that keeping his composure, for the most part, has been a big factor in keeping him in the NHL. It hasn't gone unnoticed.
"I think it's important when you play a role like Ryan plays that he stay on the right side of the line and he's done that for us all year," Mike Sullivan said. "He has an influence on the game, no question. Ryan's done a really good job in the discipline area because players that play that physical role, that play with an edge, so to speak, you always run the risk of toiling on that line all the time. I think Ryan has done a good job of staying on the right side."
When you have the NHL's top power play and just scored on over a third of your power play chances, composure is a necessity. The Capitals have the NHL's 18th-ranked penalty kill. That's an advantage the Penguins need to capitalize on.
2. Dimming the stars.
It'll be a night of stars when the Capitals and Penguins meet. It always is.
The Capitals may have shed some depth in the off-season, but they still bring it offensively every night. Alex Ovechkin. Nicklas Backstrom. T.J. Oshie. John Carlson. Evgeny Kuznetsov. Those are some good reasons why the Capitals are leading the division in the standings and in goals for. But they've also been able to incorporate a lot of new faces and have kept on winning. Tom Wilson credits Barry Trotz and his system for that.
"The young guys have bought in and there's a bit of an adjustment period, but when you learn the system, learn the ins-and-outs of this team, there's an adjustment that needs to be made and everyone's done that and stayed fairly consistent," Wilson said.
Still, the Penguins have to be aware of the Capitals' stars. Ovechkin has 53 points (31 goals) in 50 career games against the Penguins, including a goal and assist this season.
“You definitely have to be aware for those guys, know when they’re on the ice," Jamie Oleksiak said of the Capitals. "You can’t give them too much room. You have to really respect them but, at the same time, you can’t give them a lot of ice because that’s when they do a lot of stuff. Just make the game hard for them and not give them a lot of room to work with. Just try to shoot down their play with body position or stick position. Its going to be a challenge."
Of course, the best defense the Penguins can play is to play offense. If the Penguins can play their preferred puck possession game, which they've been quite good at for most of their 9-3 run, they should be good.
3. Got to get to Holtby early.
Listen closely, and you can still hear the "Hooooool-tby! Hooooool-tby!" chants that reigned down from the upper level at PPG each of the past two springs.
The regular season might be a different, kinder, animal but it hasn't been too kind to Holtby against the Penguins. Holtby is winless in his last three regular-season starts in Pittsburgh after giving up 12 goals. In his last start against the Penguins on Jan. 16, 2017, he was pulled after giving up five goals on 26 shots (.808 save percentage)
Holtby is arguably the best goalie in the league, but he's average at best when trailing. The Capitals are 5-8-0 when trailing after 20 minutes.
