BRADENTON, Fla. — When Clint Hurdle sat in front of a dozen reporters at the Winter Meetings in December, the Pirates' manager expressed confidence that his club could return to the postseason if his core players stayed healthy in 2018.
However, his best position player and best pitcher have since been traded. With Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole gone, Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections have the Pirates winning 77 games and finishing fourth in the National League Central.
Hurdle will use such low expectations as a motivational tool for a roster with both new and familiar faces. The 60-year-old employed a similar message during his first season in 2011 when he inherited a club that won only 57 games the previous year, but he and his coaching staff will face a number of unique challenges this time.
Here are five that will be worth monitoring as pitchers and catchers officially report for spring training at Pirate City on Monday:
1. Maintaining clubhouse chemistry with McCutchen, Cole gone.
When the McCutchen and Cole trade rumors were in their infancy, Hurdle was asked at PiratesFest how losing a member of the core can affect clubhouse chemistry. He emphasized that talent does not always coincide with leadership, but McCutchen and Cole were both vocal and emotional leaders on the roster.
Losing such leadership following a 98-win season in 2015 had a negative impact on the field, according to Sean Rodriguez.
“It definitely played a factor in 2016,” Rodriguez said at PiratesFest. “There were some moves made in ’16 that kind of hurt. A big piece of the core was chipped off. I get it, I know there’s a business side to it. I don’t know who’s at the forefront of it … well, I kind of do. I’m not taking shots at Neal [Huntington], because it wasn’t necessarily him. It plays a huge factor. You can’t eliminate something that’s moving in a certain direction and take a big piece off of it. Can it work? Sometimes, but it’s a low percentage. That’s just the way it is. That’s the game, that’s the business. Hopefully, we’ve got enough building up that core that it doesn’t matter. That’s what my mindset is — to keep that core strong under any circumstances, those pillars that are holding everything up.”
Although Rodriguez did not specifically name the player, surely he was referring to Neil Walker. Trading away McCutchen and Cole may very well have angered some players on the roster. Those moves signaled a possible rebuild, prompting Josh Harrison to release a statement to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports saying that if the Pirates did not intend to compete in 2018 then Harrison would prefer to be traded, too.
Hurdle will be tasked with selling returning players such as Rodriguez, Harrison and Josh Bell on the idea that the Pirates can indeed win without McCutchen and Cole. Surely the process began once the trades were completed, as Hurdle often calls players during the offseason to check in.
Hurdle is known as the ultimate motivator. But how will the returners respond if newly-acquired players such as Colin Moran prove incapable of replacing the talent lost?
2. Replacing McCutchen, Cole on the field.
The Pirates can't replace McCutchen. He symbolized the franchise's return to prominence, winning the National League MVP in 2013 and finishing his time in Pittsburgh as one of the franchise's greats.
Despite a sluggish first six weeks of 2017, McCutchen hit a team-high 28 home runs and was one of the better hitters in the National League during stretches of the season. However, the Pirates dealt him to the Giants for reliever Kyle Crick and minor-league outfielder Bryan Reynolds.
Both could prove to be valuable pieces in time, but neither will address the club's need for immediate offensive production. There isn't a clear favorite to take over the vacancy created in left with Marte moving back to center field, but Rodriguez or Adam Frazier, who was impressive in the outfield last season, are Hurdle's best options.
Neither is likely to hit for much power, leaving Bell and Gregory Polanco with little protection in the lineup. Huntington brought in veteran Daniel Nava as a possible platoon, but the 34-year-old hasn't been an everyday player since 2014.
The rotation is intriguing with Ivan Nova, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams and Chad Kuhl back. Also, Joe Musgrove, acquired from the Astros in the five-player trade for Cole, is the likely favorite to be the No. 5 starter. But Cole started a career-high 33 games last season, eating up 203 innings, and is worth 3.4 wins above replacement in 2018, according to FanGraphs' ZiPS projections.
Competing in what now appears to be the best division in Major League Baseball, the Pirates are taking a gamble that Nova can return to form and young starters such as Taillon can build upon lessons learned in the major leagues last season.
3. Helping Polanco, Marte fulfill potential.
Huntington made it clear at the Winter Meetings that his offseason strategy revolved around the Pirates' optimism that Polanco and Starling Marte will rebound in 2018. Polanco was limited last season because of a recurring hamstring injury, and Marte was suspended 80 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.
“Absolutely (they are what we need). With the way they can impact the game on offense or on defense,” Huntington said. “To have them on the field on a consistent basis, doing what they are capable of doing, they absolutely are. On any given night, either of those guys can be the best player on the field. It’s just a matter of how often they can be the best player on the field.”
According to ZiPS projections for 2018, Marte will slash .278/.334/.412 with 11 home runs, 52 RBI and 28 stolen bases for a zWAR of 2.6, which is now the highest on the roster with McCutchen gone.
Polanco, meanwhile, is projected to produce .268/.328/.437 with 16 home runs, 64 RBI and 15 stolen bases for a zWAR of 2.3.
Sure, hitting coach Jeff Branson will spend the most time with both players in the cage, but Hurdle is also very involved in the process. Both men will work throughout the spring to try to get Marte and Polanco in position to lead the offense.
After all, both players will likely have to exceed their projected performances for the Pirates to have a shot at the postseason, as I wrote during the Winter Meetings last month.
4. Construct a plan to get the most out of both catchers.
Francisco Cervelli is the starting catcher. Not only is the 31-year-old the club's highest paid player for 2018 but his defensive work will be critical to this young rotation's success or lack thereof.
Cervelli was limited to only 81 games last season because of various injuries. Additionally, the broken hamate bone that limited him to 101 games in 2016 negatively impacted one of his greatest strengths: pitch framing.
Hurdle will likely use something of a platoon at the position to keep Cervelli healthy and to attempt to get more out of him offensively. Elias Diaz, 27, batted just .223 in 200 plate appearances for the Pirates last season, but Hurdle was thrilled with Diaz's improvement behind the plate, particularly his work with this young rotation.
Diaz caught Taillon, Kuhl and Williams throughout the minor leagues, so he's keenly aware of their strengths and weaknesses. Plus, Diaz isn't afraid to be authoritative with his pitchers.
"I think he learned some things offensively but he never let his bat leak into his glove," Hurdle said of Diaz. "And the relationship development he was able to build with our entire staff, from Nova to (Felipe) Rivero, with everybody in between, could be invaluable moving forward for him as well. So I do have a lot of confidence. I have every confidence in him being able to be a guy, if need be, to be an everyday Big League catcher."
5. Handling the new additions, particularly Moran.
Of the six players acquired in the McCutchen and Cole trades, four are expected to be on the Pirates' opening day roster. With that opportunity comes high expectations, as each player will forever be known by fans as part of a trade that sent the club's two best players out of town.
Musgrove is expected to be used as a starter, despite having a 6.15 ERA in 15 starts for the Astros last season. Moran is penciled in as the starting third baseman, although he has only 16 games of major league experience. Each of the six players has his share of question marks, but Hurdle will be put in an awkward position if any of them fail early.
Sure, he has insurance for Moran with David Freese still on the roster, but Moran does not have positional flexibility to be a bench bat and already has 161 games played at Triple-A. Musgrove, meanwhile, can shift back to the bullpen — he excelled in a late-inning role last season — but the Pirates already have a number of relievers on the 40-man roster.
Moran is the most important of the group. He could provide the power this lineup lacks and would allow Freese to serve as a backup at third and first.