Kovacevic: Even facing elimination, precedent favors Penguins taken at PPG Paints Arena (Penguins)

Jake Guentzel enjoys a loud laugh Saturday morning in Washington. - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

The Penguins will beat the Capitals in Game 6.

They will also win Game 7.

I hate making predictions, as longtime readers will attest. They don't mean anything. None among us can forecast the future and, thus, predictions are pointless even when they're proven correct.

But I'm completely comfortable sharing opinions. And that's what those two sentences up there constitute. They're opinions, as with any that I'll offer in any form, based on much more than some random gut feeling. They're based on experience and evidence and, ideally, precedent.

So someone tell me, please, where's the precedent for Mike Sullivan's Penguins losing a Stanley Cup playoff series?

Mike Sullivan in Game 5 in D.C. - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

That record's currently 9-0, by my count. And within that, any decision, small or large, that's come under scrutiny has bloomed in his favor. Jim Rutherford calls Sullivan "the best coach I've ever been around," and that's not just to be nice. The man's done nothing but win.

Where's the precedent for losing elimination games?

That record's 4-0 over the past three playoffs, including Game 7 a year ago in Washington and a comeback from a 3-2 series deficit two years against the Lightning.

Where's the precedent for losing a Game 7?

That's 3-0 with only three total goals allowed over those 10-plus periods, including the double-OT triumph over the Senators a year ago. Because this offense-first team has gotten it done defensively when most needed.

Where's the precedent for Matt Murray losing a playoff series, never mind being outplayed by his counterpart in every game?

That's currently the case, with Braden Holtby out of his mind at the other end. But Murray's never lost a playoff series, and that's in large part because he's 11-2 after a playoff loss. And if anyone's wondering why, enjoy the shortest interview in hockey history, this being my question and his answer Saturday night in D.C.:

Where's the precedent for Sidney Crosby at the wrong end of any team competition involving Alexander Ovechkin?

All three meetings in the NHL have gone to Pittsburgh. Both meetings in the Olympics have gone to Canada. In the second occurrence of the latter, 2014 in Sochi, Russia, Ovechkin's homeland, after Crosby was draped again with gold, Mike Babcock called Crosby "a serial winner." He's been all that and more in this postseason, and he doesn't exactly look like he's ready to stop.

The handshake line, 2017. - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

Where's the precedent for Ovechkin advancing beyond the second round?

Not once in a dozen seasons of an otherwise brilliant NHL career.

Where's the precedent for Barry Trotz advancing beyond the second round?

Not once, amazingly, in 20 consecutive years as an NHL head coach. That's surreal.

Evgeni Malkin in Game 5 in D.C. - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

Where's the precedent for Evgeni Malkin performing at anything less than a superhuman level when he's angry?

He's bona fide angry. He was minus-4 in Game 5, in part because of his own carelessness in allowing Evgeny Kuznetsov to slip behind him for the tying breakaway. Also, he hates Kuznetsov. Not an act. Not manufactured. He'd hate having to shake Kuznetsov's hand tonight.

Where's the precedent for Patric Hornqvist not being among the most visible players in the biggest of games?

Ask Pekka Rinne how that storyline ends:

Where's the precedent for Phil Kessel struggling through an entire playoff?

He sure is now, no question. And he's hurting. And frustrated. But aside from the one bonehead deke attempt on T.J. Oshie in the waning minutes of Game 5, there was a lot more of the old Phil back in his game. Hard skating. Claiming 50/50 battles. Shooting the puck. Couple assists. And the broader precedent is that he's been a superlative big-game performer, both in the NHL and when representing the United States.

On that same note, where's the precedent for Derick Brassard struggling through an entire playoff?

In five previous postseasons, with the Rangers and Senators, he had 59 points in 78 games. It wasn't until this run — one goal, three assists in 11 games — that he's been anything less than superb. "Eventually, it's going to go in," he was telling us in D.C. before Game 5, and he just might have been foretelling his assist on Jamie Oleksiak's icebreaker:

Where's the precedent for Bryan Rust, 'Mr. Game 7,' as his teammates not-at-all-jokingly call him, staying this silent for so long?

It's gotten a little lost in the fuss over other non-scoring forwards, but Rust has zero points in the series and, in half of the six games, he's gone without a shot. Maybe he's just biding his time again. Because over his career, in the final two games of any given series, he's delivered a total of 11 goals in those 16 games.

Where's the precedent for Kris Letang to hurt the championship cause?

He made two terrible mistakes in the third period of Game 5. Not just the one most people are lamenting, but also on the winning goal. He deserves all the criticism that comes with those. But he's also been principally responsible for dramatically limiting Ovechkin's five-on-five chances — three shots in the past two games! — and his history in the two Finals in which he participated, 2009 and 2016, show that he was among the team's very best players. The 2016 clincher in San Jose was nothing less than the greatest performance by a defenseman in franchise history.

Where's the precedent for Brian Dumoulin losing ... at anything?

At Biddeford High School in Maine, he won two Class A state championships. As a senior with the New Hampshire Junior Monarchs, he won a Tier III Junior A national championship. At Boston College, he won the NCAA championship in 2012. In Pittsburgh ... you know. And even a couple nights ago, he nearly backhanded that partial break behind Holtby.

Am I missing anyone? Or anything?

Oh, yeah, that guy: Where's the precedent for Jake Guentzel being held scoreless in back-to-back games?

Happened in Game 5 of this series, as well as Game 2 against the Flyers, and that was it. Here's guessing he's not done.

And here's guessing they're not done, either. Meaning the Penguins. Because it just doesn't feel that way.

That's not based on precedent, of course, since no team has three-peated since the Islanders of 1980-83, but it is based on how I'd always pictured this remarkable run someday ending. It should have been fatigue. Or injury. Or lousy luck. Or a genuinely superior opponent, such as the Tampa Bay team that awaits in the Eastern final. But not like this. Certainly not to a Washington team that isn't anywhere near as good as its own two previous editions.

I could extend this exercise all day, from both the Pittsburgh and Washington perspectives, and the sum will still powerfully suggest that these Penguins are the defending champions until they aren't. They've got the tangibles, the intangibles and everything else, including some of the most voluminous precedent of team-on-team crime in hockey history — that's needed to take Game 6 tonight.

Which they will.

And then, that little asterisk down there can get erased:

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