Welcome to the second edition of Stats ‘N’ At, a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define the Pittsburgh sports scene.
Trevor Williams shambled off the mound at PNC Park on July 6, having just been shelled by the Phillies for five runs in 2 1/3 innings. His ERA was a season-worst 4.60, and some fans were calling for the former Marlins prospect — essentially traded to Pittsburgh in the fall of 2015 for a pitching coach — to be removed from the rotation.
Nine starts later, Williams is firmly entrenched in the Pirates’ plans and ranks in the top 20 among qualified MLB starters in ERA (3.15). In those nine starts, spanning 54.2 innings, he has surrendered just 41 hits while posting a 0.66 ERA. He’s earning rave reviews from the Old School ... but there might also be a case for skepticism.
What’s working so well for Williams?
And can he remain a high-quality starter?
First, the good ...
• Hitters aren’t squaring him up. Opponents have made hard contact against 30.2% of Williams’ pitches this season, well below the 35.8% MLB average for starting pitchers. He has limited hitters to an average exit velocity of 85.6 mph, which is better than the 87.3-mph league average. He ranks in the top 20 among all pitchers (relievers included) in average exit velocity. He gives up a lot of contact, but it’s often weak grounders and can-of-corn flyouts rather than scorching line drives.
• He stays strong throughout the game. Typically, starting pitchers perform worse as the game progresses. Starters fatigue, batters adjust, and the extra-base hits pile up. This season, starters have given up a .702 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) against batters the first time through the line, a .731 OPS the second time, and a .790 OPS the third time. But Williams has a .570 OPS while battling hitters for the third time.
• He found a secondary pitch. He throws his 90-ish mph fastball more often (70% of total pitches) than any other National League pitcher. It’s an effective offering, despite its modest velocity, but the problem was he didn’t have much else in his arsenal. In 2018, using Fangraphs' pitch value, Williams’ low-80s slider has progressed from a liability to a modestly above-average pitch:
Now, the bad ...
Williams has struck out just 16.7% of batters faced — a far cry from the 21.4% average for MLB starters. He has one of the ten lowest strikeout rates among all qualified starters. That might be palatable if he had great control and generated a lot of ground balls, but his walk rate is right around average (8.2%) and he induces few grounders (40.4%, compared to the 43.1% average). An ultra-low strikeout rate, so-so control, allowing fly balls that are more likely to lead to runs … that’s not a great pitcher profile.
Williams has also benefited from some favorable bounces. We’ve established that he induces pretty weak contact, but you should still expect his ridiculously low batting average on balls in play (.251, about 40 points below the MLB average) to rise. He also might not wiggle out of quite so many jams. He has stranded 77.2% of baserunners, compared to the 72.6% MLB average. Over time, pitchers tend to hover around the league average in strand rate.
Judging by ERA, Williams looks like a stud. His Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) — a more accurate long-term way of evaluating pitchers which accounts for strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed — paints a more modest picture. He has a 4.16 FIP, which is a bit better than the 4.20 MLB average for starters.
Even if Williams is just a league-average starter, that’s valuable to the Pirates — particularly in those pre-arbitration and arbitration years where players earn a fraction of what they’d command in free agency. Just don’t expect him to pitch like an ace in 2019 and beyond.
MORE PIRATES
• Frazier packs a punch: A couple months ago, Adam Frazier was toiling in Triple-A Indianapolis. Now, he’s doing his best vintage Chase Utley impression. Frazier has unexpectedly added power to his offensive game while trying to make the case that he should be an everyday player in 2019. He has raised his slugging percentage from .399 to a more robust .455, and already has seven home runs, surpassing his total from 2017 by one in 167 fewer at-bats.
Frazier has become much more of a threat versus sliders and changeups. In 2017, he slugged .322 against sliders. In 2018, that's .794, according to Fangraphs. Against changeups, it's risen from .267 to .444. Assuming that the Pirates decline Josh Harrison’s $10.5 million club option for next year, Frazier figures to battle prospect Kevin Newman for playing time at second base, while also dabbling in the outfield. At bare minimum, he shouldn’t have to worry about being shuttled back to Indianapolis.
• Baserunning blunders: Baserunning doesn’t contribute to wins and losses nearly as much as hitting, pitching and fielding, but it’s hard to ignore just how bad the Pirates have been on the basepaths in 2018. Fangraphs keeps track of an all-encompassing Baserunning (BsR) stat, which measures stolen bases, caught stealings, and other baserunning plays such as taking an extra bag or running into outs. Collectively, the Pirates’ baserunning has been minus-11.5 runs worse than that of an average MLB team. That ranks 28th among all teams. The biggest culprits are the piano-on-his-back-slow Colin Moran (-3.4 BsR), Corey Dickerson (-3.3), Josh Bell (-2) and Gregory Polanco (-1.4).
STEELERS
• A return game upgrade: Continuing the franchise’s recent run of acquiring players who tortured Pitt on Saturdays, the Steelers picked up return man/wide receiver Ryan Switzer (along with a 2019 sixth-round draft selection) from the Raiders for a 2019 fifth-rounder. The 5-foot-8 former Tar Heels star doesn’t offer much in the receiving department (he hauled in six passes as a rookie with the Cowboys), but he presents an upgrade over the Steelers’ incumbent return options — and gets Antonio Brown out of special teams peril. Switzer ranked third in the NFL in kickoff return average (25 yards per return) in 2017, and placed 13th in punt return average (8.8). For comparison's sake, the Steelers averaged just 19.1 yards per kickoff return (20th among NFL teams) and 6.9 yards per punt return (23rd) last season.
• Foster or Finney?: Left guard Ramon Foster has recovered from what initially appeared to be a serious knee injury suffered during training camp, but his long-term job security is still in peril. The 32-year-old is entering the final year of his contract. His hard-charging backup, B.J. Finney, who’s six years younger than Foster and can also play center, can become a restricted free agent next offseason. It seems to be a question of when, not if, Finney unseats Foster. Neither lineman is a road-grader, but Finney had a better run-blocking grade from Pro Football Focus in 2017 (59.8 out of 100, compared to Foster’s 48.3) while posting an elite pass-blocking grade (89.6, versus 75.4 for Foster). As an undrafted free agent, Foster has forged an impressive, decade-long career. Ironically, he may get replaced by a guy following the same career path.
• Undrafted linebackers excelling: The Steelers’ linebacker depth chart doesn’t look as dire with the emergence of undrafted rookie free agents Matthew Thomas of Florida State and Ola Adeniyi of Toledo. Thomas, a former blue-chip recruit who racked up 25.5 tackles for a loss for the Seminoles, has shown impressive range and pass-rushing prowess. Adeniyi also made splash plays during the preseason. During the post-merger era, the Steelers have only had one undrafted linebacker make a huge impact—all-time sacks leader James Harrison. But they have gotten plenty of value from unheralded linebackers like Greg Lloyd (a sixth-round pick in 1987), Hardy Nickerson (fifth-rounder in 1987), Clark Haggans (fifth round in 2000), Jerry Olsavsky (tenth round in 1989) and Vince Williams (sixth round in 2013).
PENGUINS
• Connor over Crosby? Pittsburgh is outraged — outraged! — that Oilers star Connor McDavid has a higher player rating than Sidney Crosby in the soon-to-be-released NHL 19 video game (McDavid is a 94, Sid a 93). Let’s continue to take this debate entirely too seriously by breaking down who was the superior player last year.
Puck possession: When McDavid was on the ice, the Oilers generated 3.3% more shots than their opponents. Sid, meanwhile, helped the Penguins outshoot opponents by 5.9% when he took the ice. Advantage Sid.
Scoring: McDavid compiled an NHL-leading 108 points last season, compared to 89 for Crosby. Advantage McDavid.
Defense: McDavid arguably shouldered a little more defensive responsibility than Crosby, as 44.4% of his faceoffs came in the defensive zone in 2017-18 compared to 41.3% for Sid. With McDavid on the ice, the Oilers surrendered 2.72 goals against per 60 minutes. With Crosby, the Penguins gave up 2.61 goals against per 60 minutes. This one’s basically a wash.
In conclusion … they’re both amazing. Historically, bet on the 21-year-old prodigy over the 31-year-old prodigy.
• In defense of Letang: Kris Letang, coming off major neck surgery, had an uneven 2017-18. After some high-profile playoff gaffes, the Penguins’ $7.25 million defenseman is being scrutinized more than ever. Is the criticism that Letang’s facing warranted, though? During his commonly described down season, he ranked 17th among NHL defensemen in points (51) and 11th in Corsi For Percentage (CF%), which is a measure of how much a player influences his team’s puck possession. A CF% over 50 means that a player’s team is controlling the puck more often than the opponent with that player on the ice. His 2017-18 CF% (55) was his highest since 2014-15, and above his career average of 53.8%.
As for Letang’s reputation as a turnover machine, it’s a matter of perspective. Part of the reason that he has a higher number of turnovers than most is because 1.) He logs an insane amount of ice time, including 25:20 per game last year, and 2.) He possesses the puck so much. Last year, he had 2.45 giveaways per 60 minutes of ice time. Among the 195 NHL defensemen who had 600-plus minutes of ice time, he had the 55th-highest giveaway rate. Is he more turnover-prone than most? Yes. But his playmaking skills still make the total package valuable.
• Crashing the net, cashing in: Patric Hornqvist didn’t earn a five-year, $26.5 million contract extension with finesse. The last overall pick in the 2005 draft has garnered a reputation for being a psychopath (in a good way) in front of the net. Just ask Cam Ward. According to the website IcyData, Hornqvist took 43% of his total shots directly in front of the crease (in the area between the two faceoff circles). The average NHL player takes just 23% of his total shots from that area. Nineteen percent of Hornqvist’s shots came from inside the crease—nearly double the 11% NHL average. He takes a lot of abuse in those battle areas, but he and the Penguins reap the rewards.
COLLEGES
• These (App State) Mountaineers mean business: Eleven years to the day after the upset that rocked college football, Penn State narrowly avoided joining the 2007 Michigan Wolverines as a traditional powerhouse program that got knocked off by the Appalachian State Mountaineers at home. While it will hardly assuage Nittany Lions fans who have designs on a national title, these Mountaineers aren't just some tomato can. In 2017, Appalachian State ranked 53rd in the nation in Football Outsiders' offensive efficiency stat, which is the value generated per offensive drive while adjusting for field position and quality of competition. The Mountaineers' defense placed an impressive 23rd in defensive efficiency.
• Panthers show bite defensively: During its first game under new coordinator Randy Bates, the Panthers' defense scarcely resembled the 2017 unit that ranked 11th in the Atlantic Coast Conference in sacks. Granted, the Great Danes won't be mistaken for Clemson or Miami, but Pitt managed five sacks against Albany while generating consistent pressure and making life easier for the secondary. Keyshon Camp (two sacks), Anthony McKee Jr., Rashad Weaver and Rashad Wheeler all managed to bring down Vincent Testaverde. (Bonus fun fact: Vincent's father, Vinny Testaverde, is tied for tenth in NFL history with 417 sacks taken. Vincent is a chip off the old block!)
• The ground game shines: Offensively, Pitt gashed Albany for 238 yards total and an average of 6.4 yards per carry. That total included some quick bursts from Qadree Ollison, Kenny Pickett scrambling, and a few Pitt receivers doing their best Jordan Whitehead or Quadree Henderson impression on misdirection plays. Pitt's ground game was largely MIA last year, when the Panthers placed 12th in the ACC in rushing yards per game (148.5) and yards per carry (3.9).
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Who's on first? Not a power bat: The Pirates' fans are surely disappointed in the 2018 season of Josh Bell, who has gone from setting a new National League rookie record for home runs by a switch-hitter (26) to barely out-homering Frazier. But the Pirates are hardly the only team experiencing a power outage at first base. In fact, first basemen have practically never hit the ball with less authority than they have in 2018.
When you adjust for park factors and the league-wide run-scoring environment, first basemen have hit about six percent better than the overall MLB average this year. That’s the second-worst offensive performance for first basemen during the Expansion Era (1960-present). Only in 1963 did hitters at the traditional power position contribute less at the plate (they were just four percent above the MLB average that year).
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