Welcome to the third edition of Stats ‘N’ At, a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define the Pittsburgh sports scene.
Over the years, some top-notch catchers have crouched behind home plate for the Pirates. There was Manny Sanguillen, a three-time All-Star and down-ballot MVP candidate for the 1970s Bucs. Perennial Gold Glove winner Tony Pena in the ‘80s. On-base machine Jason Kendall in the ‘90s. And, more recently, Russell Martin, who earned a special place in Pirates fans’ hearts — and stole a piece of Johnny Cueto’s soul — during the 2013 Wild Card game.
Add to that list the 2018 tandem of Francisco Cervelli and Elias Diaz. They have arguably been the best catching combo in the major leagues, and one of the best in franchise history.
Entering the season, both warranted skepticism. Cervelli played in just 81 games in 2017 while dealing with a litany of injuries. Diaz, meanwhile, had a poor season at Triple-A Indianapolis with a .638 On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS), and a nightmarish debut in the majors (.579 OPS). At 27 years old, he looked like an MLB backup at best. Combined, Cervelli and Diaz were worth just 0.7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a measure of a player’s total value compared to a Quad-A type player that accounts for offensive, defensive and base running production.
As 2018 comes to a close, though, the catching position looks like it’s in good hands. Let’s take a closer look at how Cervelli and Diaz have turned in career years.
Offense: Last year, Cervelli’s OPS+, or On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage adjusted for park factors and league-wide run scoring, was ten percent worse than the MLB average (90 OPS+). This year, he’s rocking a 126 OPS+ (26 percent above average). That’s the second-best mark among all catchers with 350+ plate appearances, trailing only the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto. Cervelli is hitting the ball in the air far more often (42.5 percent fly ball rate in 2018, compared to 27.1 percent in 2017), and with more authority (his average exit velocity has increased to 89.1 mph from 87 mph last year; the MLB average is 87.3 mph). Diaz has also been a stud, with a 116 OPS+. He’s hitting the ball even harder than Cervelli (89.5 mph exit velocity), while doing serious damage against breaking and off-speed stuff (a combined slugging percentage around .500).
Defense: Both of these guys are legit catchers. Baseball Prospectus has a stat called Fielding Runs Above Average, which measures a backstop’s value in framing pitches (getting extra called strikes on borderline pitches), blocking would-be passed balls and wild pitches, and controlling the running game. Cervelli has been +1.5 runs better than the average MLB catcher defensively, while Diaz sits at +1.4.
When you combine their stellar hitting and steady fielding, Cervelli and Diaz have given the Pirates a decided advantage behind the dish in 2018:
With 5 WAR, the Cervelli/Diaz tandem already has the sixth-best single-season WAR total for Pirates catchers. Only in 1960 (5.2 WAR), 2000 (5.3), 1998 (5.6), 2014 (6) and 1971 (6.5) did the Bucs get more production at arguably the game’s most valuable position.
Moving forward, there are still questions. Cervelli’s troubling concussion history could lead to a position switch, or at least fewer starts at catcher. Diaz needs to prove that his 2018 power surge is real, and that he can handle a full-time job after Cervelli likely departs (he’s under contract for $11.5 million for 2019 and then can hit free agency). But at the very least, upgrading the catching position is no longer on GM Neal Huntington’s offseason to-do list.
MORE PIRATES
• Polanco’s pull-side power: In 2018, Gregory Polanco continued to excite and infuriate anyone with a vested interest in the Pirates—though he did more of the former before recently suffering season-ending knee and shoulder injuries during an awkward slide into second base. After nearly earning a demotion to Triple-A Indianapolis while approaching the Mendoza Line earlier this summer, Polanco rebounded to set a new career high in home runs (23). His OPS was 28 percent above the overall MLB average (128 OPS+). For comparison’s sake, Polanco’s career OPS+ is 101 (1 percent above average), and his OPS+ last season was a paltry 83 (17 percent below average).
Polanco altered his batting stance during the 2018 season, moving farther away from the plate so he would be able to extend his arms and better handle pitches thrown inside. That looks like a winning approach. Polanco’s struggles with inside pitches last season were reflected by his .454 slugging percentage and 55 percent ground ball rate when pulling the ball (the MLB averages are .648 and 59 percent, respectively). Inside pitches are most often pulled, and when Polanco pulled, he rolled over or otherwise made weak contact. In 2018, though, Polanco slugged .876 on pitches hit to right field—a top-15 mark among all MLB batters—while hitting ground balls just 43.5 percent of the time.
• Taillon’s new weapon: While he’s not generating headlines like rotation mate Trevor Williams, Jameson Taillon is quietly having a high-quality, healthy 2018 season. Taillon has cut his walk rate from 2017 (3.1 per nine innings pitched) to 2018 (2.2 per nine innings), while maintaining similar strikeout and ground ball totals. One reason for Taillon’s breakout? He discovered a new out pitch. Taillon’s 12-to-6 curveball has been his calling card since the Pirates selected him second overall in the 2010 draft, but his new slider just might be the better pitch. He has thrown his near-90-mph slider about 17 percent of the time this season, with superb results. Taillon’s slider has been worth +1.2 runs above the MLB average, per 100 pitches thrown. That makes Taillon’s new weapon one of the 20 most effective sliders among all MLB starters.
STEELERS
•Le’Veon who? Costly fourth-quarter fumble aside, James Conner impressed during his first career NFL start. Conner rushed for 135 yards on 31 carries (a 4.4 yard average) with two touchdowns, and hauled in five passes (out of six targets) for 57 yards. His 192 combined yards from scrimmage are the third-most for a Steeler during Week 1 during the Post-Merger Era (1970-present), trailing only Willie Parker (209 yards from scrimmage versus the Titans in 2005) and Le'Veon Bell (197 yards versus the Browns in 2014). Conner was at his best when running between the center and left guard (six attempts for 33 yards, according to NFL Next Gen Stats), and the left guard and left tackle (six attempts for 38 yards). He also showed another gear by reaching a top speed of 21 mph during his 22-yard rushing touchdown. That was the third-highest speed of any player during Sunday's afternoon games. Conner's fumble, which set up a quick Cleveland touchdown, will overshadow some of his quality work. But his first audition as Bell's long-term replacement went well overall.
•Anatomy of a squandered game: In a soggy, macabre contest between mistake-prone teams that not even a mother could love, the Steelers committed six turnovers, took 12 penalties for 116 yards, and played to a tie for the first time since November of 2002 (when they matched the Falcons 34-34). Given those circumstances, some might consider it a minor miracle that the Steelers avoided an outright loss. But that clearly won't be the local sentiment, given how in-the-bag a win over the Browns looked even deep into the fourth quarter. According to ESPN's win probability tool--which calculates a team's odds of victory in-game based on the score, down, field position, and team talent levels--the Steelers had a 97.5% chance of winning with eight minutes left if the fourth quarter. After Conner's fumble and Cleveland's subsequent touchdown to make the score 21-14, the Steelers still had a 91% chance of winning. After the Browns tied it 21-21, Pittsburgh's win probability was at 60%. Those odds dipped all the way to 10% as Cleveland kicker Zane Gonzalez lined up for an overtime, game-winning field goal attempt, which T.J. Watt blocked. Odds of Steelers fans wanting to forget this game ever happened? 100%.
• The $17 million (plus) question: Bell wants to get paid like he’s the best running back in the NFL, and a top-notch receiver—combined. Should he be? Football Outsiders keeps track of a stat called Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), which calculates the per-play value of a player after accounting for the game situation (down and distance) and the quality of the opposing team. Bell ranked first among NFL running backs in rushing DVOA in 2015, fifth in 2016 and 11th in 2017. In terms of his receiving value, Bell ranked 49th among running backs in 2015, 12th in 2016 and 29th in 2017. He is undoubtedly an elite talent. But should Bell—who also has the ninth-most touches by a running back in NFL history through his age-25 season—really get a contract worthy of a Todd Gurley-Antonio Brown hybrid?
PENGUINS
• How Sid stacks up through age 30: By NHL standards, Sidney Crosby is hardly The Kid anymore. Crosby celebrated his 31st birthday this summer, which makes him three years older than the average NHL player. How does Sid compare to the game’s all-time greats through age 30?
If you’re comparing players across eras, you can’t just look at the raw counting stats. The NHL has experienced times when goals flowed more freely than the glorious mullets that Jaromir Jagr and Mario Lemieux sported in the early ‘90s. During other eras, like the one we’re currently in, scoring is at a premium. To adjust for those differences, Hockey Reference created a stat called Adjusted Points. Adjusted Points accounts for differences in the league-wide scoring environment, and allows us to make more of an apples-to-apples comparison between players from different eras.
Through age 30, Crosby ranks third in NHL history with 1,234 Adjusted Points. That’s more than 100 points above his actual total (1,116), and speaks to the low-scoring era in which he has played. The only players above Crosby in adjusted points through age 30 are Wayne Gretzky (1,742) and Jagr (1,317). Gordie Howe (1,192) ranks fourth and Lemieux places fifth (1,163), through Mario racked up that total in far fewer games than the men above him while battling injury and illness.
• Rust keeps getting better: Bryan Rust, recently signed to a four-year contract extension worth $14 million, continues to elevate his game. The former third-round pick out of Notre Dame has increased his average points per game total and ice time every season in the NHL, topping out at 0.55 PPG and 16 minutes, 3 seconds during the 2017-18 campaign. Rust is among the Penguins’ most defensively responsible wingers, too, as the team surrendered just 25.9 shots against per 60 minutes when he was on the ice last year. That was the lowest total among all Penguins regulars, and ranked 14th-lowest in the NHL among skaters who took the ice for at least 500 minutes.
With an improving two-way game, Rust has turned into a puck-possession dynamo. When Rust was on the ice last year, the Penguins attempted 5.5 percent more shots than the opposition. Among regulars, only Sidney Crosby (5.9 percent) tilted the ice more in the Penguins’ favor.
• With or without you: With the Jack Johnson signing, the Penguins’ defensive parings will have a different look in 2018-19. Coach Mike Sullivan likely won’t mess with his top pairing of Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin, but it’s possible that Justin Schultz and Olli Maatta go their separate ways. If those two get less ice time together, how might that affect them? The Lineup Tool on the Natural Stat Trick website, which allows you to compare a player’s stats with and without other skaters, offers a clue.
When Schultz was on the ice with Maatta last season, the Penguins outscored the opposition by about nine percent. When he was paired with another defenseman, the split was about the same (eight percent more goals than opponents). Maatta, though, was much better with Schultz than without him (the Penguins were outscored by 10 percent when Maatta took the ice with another D-man). If this high-performing duo is split up, it’s important that Maatta finds a rhythm with a new partner.
COLLEGES
• A worthy successor to Saquon: Former Woodland Hills standout and five-star recruit Miles Sanders made a triumphant return to Heinz Field, rushing for a career-best 118 yards on 16 carries against the Panthers. Sanders, given the opportunity to replace number two overall NFL draft pick Saquon Barkley, has been up to the task so far. He has a long way to go to be mentioned in the same company as Barkley, but Sanders has averaged 6.4 yards per carry during his college career. Barkley ripped off an average of 5.7 yards per carry during his days with the Nittany Lions.
• Nittany Lions deliver knockout blows: Penn State's 51-6 mauling of the Panthers represents the third-most lopsided win in the 99-game, 125-year history of this rivalry. And whenever things get out of hand, it tends to be the Nittany Lions delivering the punishment. Penn State's 45-point margin of victory this season was topped only by the team's 65-9 win over the Panthers in 1968 (an undefeated season for the Nittany Lions), and its 59-0 triumph over Pitt in 1903.
• Pitt, Penn State both NFL factories: The Pitt-Penn State rivalry doesn’t end on Saturdays—fans also talk smack about which school has produced more top-flight NFL players. So, who has the advantage? Pitt players have produced 123 Pro Bowl seasons, led by Larry Fitzgerald (11 so far), Joe Schmidt (10), Ruben Brown and Dan Marino (nine apiece). The Panthers have produced eight Hall of Famers: Mike Ditka, Chris Doleman, Tony Dorsett, Russ Grimm, Rickey Jackson, Marino, Curtis Martin and Schmidt. Penn State, meanwhile, has a collective 108 Pro Bowl seasons, with Franco Harris (9), Mike Munchak (9), Jack Ham (8) and Steve Wisniewski (8) leading the way. The Nittany Lions have five players enshrined in Canton, including Ham, Harris, Lenny Moore, Munchak and Dave Robinson. Advantage, Pitt.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• When the base defense, well, isn't: In case you’ve been under a rock since the early Bill Cowher days (or just enjoyed a few too many Rolling Rocks), the NFL is a passing league. Last year, 58 percent of total offensive snaps were passes. Many teams—the Steelers included—have responded to this new era of ultra-athletic tight ends and sure-handed, explosive running backs by investing more in defensive backs who are nimble enough to defend against the pass, but also stout enough to stop the run. According to Football Outsiders, NFL teams played their “base” defense just one-third of the time in 2017. They took the field with five defensive backs about 52 percent of the time, and deployed six or more defensive backs about 13 percent of the time.
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