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When the Penguins acquired Derick Brassard from the Senators last February as part of a three-team trade, they parted with major assets that included a 2018 first-round pick, a top goaltender prospect (Filip Gustavsson) and defenseman Ian Cole. Nonetheless, the move was hailed as giving the Penguins depth at the center position not enjoyed since Jordan Staal complemented Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Early returns on the deal, suffice it to say, weren’t great. In Pittsburgh, Brassard didn’t score much. He was a turnover machine. He uncharacteristically disappeared in the playoffs. He was, to a degree that we may never quite know, hampered by injury. And now, as the Penguins set their sights on a third Stanley Cup in four seasons, Brassard might be the player with the most questions to answer.
Is he a fit for the Penguins’ turbo-charged style? Can he find chemistry with his wingers? Is he, himself, going to be a winger instead of a center?
Some fans might be ready to declare the Brassard deal a failed experiment and hope that the Penguins recoup some value by trading him. But that would be premature. A healthy Brassard has plenty to offer the Penguins in 2018-19:
• He’ll have a full season to acclimate to the Penguins’ system. In Ottawa, Brassard played in a low-octane system that generated few shot attempts (the Senators ranked 22nd in the NHL in shots per 60 minutes of ice time, while the Penguins ranked first) or scoring chances (Ottawa placed 28th, and Pittsburgh ranked fifth). Give Brassard a little more time, and he should start to mesh with his new teammates.
• He helps generate scoring opportunities. When Brassard was on the ice last season, his teams generated 11.5% more scoring chances compared to when he was on the bench. That ranked in the top 25 among all NHL centers, despite including his wretched stretch in Pittsburgh. In Ottawa alone, Brassard helped generate 15.5% more scoring chances while on the ice.
• He drives puck possession. Over the last two seasons, Brassard ranks second among all centers in a stat called Relative Corsi For Percentage. Basically, it shows how a player influences his team’s ability to generate and suppress shot attempts. A positive number means that when a player is on the ice, his team generates a larger percentage of total shot attempts than opponents compared to when that player isn’t skating. The guys on this list really help tilt the ice in their team’s favor. You may recognize the guy who’s directly behind Brassard, too.
There’s no getting around it: Brassard played poorly as a Penguin. But there were some important mitigating factors—transitioning to a markedly different playing style, combating injury—that help account for those struggles. I’m guessing that fans will be satisfied with the long-term return on Brassard.
MORE PENGUINS
• Oleksiak a new man in Pittsburgh: The Penguins have a well-deserved reputation for revitalizing the careers of once-promising defensemen who have fallen on hard times. Jamie Oleksiak, acquired from the Stars last December for a conditional fourth-round pick in the 2019 draft, could be the latest example. A towering, 6-foot-7 D-man who was selected with the 14th overall pick in the 2011 draft, Oleksiak was a serious drag on his team’s puck possession numbers with Dallas. When he was on the ice during the 2017-18 season, the Stars generated 0.9% fewer shots than the opposition. With the Penguins, however, Oleksiak helped his new club generate 1.2% more shots than opponents. He became more assertive offensively, taking an average of 1.36 shots per game with the Pens (compared to 0.81 in Dallas) and doubling his point-per-game average to 0.3 (0.14 with the Stars). Oleksiak is still just 25, and the Penguins locked him up over the summer with a three-year, $6.4 million extension. Not a bad return for a middle-round draft pick.
• Who should back up Murray? Turbulent 2017-18 season aside, Matt Murray is still a franchise goaltender. But Murray has also never played in more than 49 regular-season games, which makes it vital for the Penguins to have a quality backup instead of an Antti Niemi-like nightmare. The contenders are Casey DeSmith and Tristan Jarry. The consensus seems to be that DeSmith, 27, will land the job. Jarry signed a two-way contract for 2018-19 with the Penguins, meaning that he can be sent to Wilkes-Barre/Scranton without having to pass through waivers. He’s also younger (23) than DeSmith and considered a potential long-term starter (or trade chip), so the Penguins want him to play regularly and continue his development. In this case, what’s good for the franchise long-term may also be good for 2018-19.
According to Corsica Hockey, DeSmith had an expected save percentage of .900 last season. Expected save percentage is calculated based on shot difficulty, including shot location and angle as well as odd-man rush situations. His actual save percentage was .921, meaning he stopped considerably more pucks than you’d expect from an average goalie. Jarry, meanwhile, was around average (.907 expected save percentage, .908 actual save percentage). DeSmith gives the Penguins a solid, more polished backup. Jarry gets more time to hone his craft in the AHL. It’s a win-win.
STEELERS
• Yeah, he's better than Alex Smith: Patrick Mahomes, son of former Pirates pitcher Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs' first-round pick in the 2017 draft, practically tossed a perfect game against the Steelers. Mahomes completed 23 of 28 passes for 326 yards, with six touchdowns and zero picks. During the post-merger era (1970-present), the Steelers have only given up six passing touchdowns in a single game one other time: Buffalo's Jim Kelly threw a half-dozen TDs while defeating the black and gold on September 8, 1991. The younger Mahomes might not remember that, considering that he wasn't born until four years later. Mahomes' 82.1% completion rate is also the highest that the Steelers have allowed in a single game during the post-merger era (minimum 25 pass attempts).
• Steelers can't limit splash plays: The 2017 Steelers defense was notorious for surrendering game-changing, big-yardage plays. The 2018 D isn't faring much better. The Steelers coughed up a 40-yard reception to Sammy Watkins, a 36-yarder to Tyreek Hill and a 31-yarder to Travis Kelce. Watkins ripped off a 31-yard run, too. Pittsburgh's defense couldn't even get in the same zip code as Watkins, a big-money free-agent pickup from the Rams. At the time of his six receptions, Watkins had an average of 4.5 yards of separation from the nearest Steelers defender, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. The league average is just 2.7 yards of separation.
• A new-age outlaw: Jesse James -- seemingly never the Steelers' preferred option at tight end, but always the guy who actually takes the field -- had an historic day in defeat. The former Penn State standout had 138 receiving yards versus the Chiefs, which is the second-highest single-game mark by a Steelers tight end in franchise history. Only Eric Green (158 receiving yards in 1991 at Philadelphia) had a more productive receiving day. Rounding out the top five are Green again (119 yards in 1993 at Seattle), Heath Miller (118 yards in 2009 versus Green Bay) and Randy Grossman (116 yards in 1978 versus Houston)
PIRATES
• Frazier’s got leather: A few weeks ago, we documented how Adam Frazier has unexpectedly added power in 2018. That’s not the only improvement that he has made, though. While Frazier was once considered a potential defensive liability, he has played well both at second base and in left field. In a little more than 700 career innings at second base, Frazier has saved his team two runs more than an average defensive second baseman would have, according to Fangraphs’ Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric. DRS rates a player’s fielding ability compared to an average defender at his position, accounting for play difficulty, range and throwing arm. In slightly less than 600 innings as a left fielder, Frazier has been eight runs better than an average defender. Frazier once looked like a singles-hitting utility player with limited defensive value. Now, he’s looking like a multi-position weapon and is making the case that he should be in the lineup every day in 2019.
•Musgrove brings better heat: It’s hard to feel totally enthusiastic about the Gerrit Cole trade — not with Cole punching out more than 12 batters per nine innings in Houston while contending for a Cy Young — but the development of Joe Musgrove takes away some of the sting. Last season, Musgrove bombed as a starting pitcher for the Astros before dominating out of the bullpen. He has proven capable of starting in 2018, logging a 3.87 ERA with a 3.65 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). FIP is a more accurate measure of a pitcher’s performance that accounts for strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed.
Musgrove has made especially large strides with his four-seam fastball. In 2017, opposing hitters had a .641 slugging percentage versus Musgrove’s four-seamer. This year, they’re slugging just .360. According to MLB Statcast data, Musgrove is throwing the pitch in the strike zone more often (55.7% in 2018, compared to 51.9% last year and the 48.6% MLB average), and he’s spotting it at the corners of the zone, where hitters make less powerful contact (33.8% of his four-seamers have been thrown to the edges, up from 31.4% last year and above the 30.5% MLB average).
• Shifty business: In the comments section of last week’s Stats ‘N’ At, reader “amishmafia” asked about how the Pirates' hitters perform against defensive shifts. Bucs batters have faced a defensive shift in 1,135 plate appearances in 2018—which sounds like a lot, until you consider how often teams play their fielders out of traditional positions these days. That’s actually just the 20th-highest number of shifts faced by an MLB team. When the Pirates do face a shift, they’re batting a collective .318. That’s the tenth-best average against the shift among big league clubs, and above the .304 overall MLB average in such situations.
Not surprisingly, lefty-swinging batters have seen the most shifts. Gregory Polanco faced a shift in 209 plate appearances, while batting .322. Colin Moran’s hitting .308 against the shift, which he has seen 199 times. Switch-hitting Josh Bell (.326 average) and lefty Corey Dickerson (.373) are also finding holes against non-traditional defensive alignments.
COLLEGES
• Best offense of the millennium? One week after pulverizing in-state rival Pitt, Penn State steamrolled Kent State while posting 63 points. In the process, the Nittany Lions racked up 643 total yards. That's the highest single-game total for Penn State dating back to at least the year 2000, according to Sports-Reference's College Football Play Index Tool. Since 2000, the only other times that Penn State has come close to being so prolific offensively were in 2017 versus Nebraska (609 total yards), 2016 versus Iowa (599), 2008 versus Coastal Carolina (594) and 2017 at Iowa (579). Naturally, the Nittany Lions got the W in all of those games.
• New game-breakers on both sides of PA: Both Pitt and Penn State have discovered new players who are a threat to score every time they touch the ball: Taysir Mack for the Panthers, and KJ Hamler for the Nittany Lions. Mack, a transfer from Indiana, enjoyed a breakout game versus Georgia Tech (four receptions for 95 yards) and is averaging 18.5 yards per reception in 2018. Hamler, a touted recruit whose college career was delayed by a torn ACL, is a multi-faceted weapon. Hamler has logged 371 all-purpose yards this season, while scoring three touchdowns (two receiving, one rushing) and proving to be a menace in the return game.
• Pitt contains the triple-option: While the Yellow Jackets made the game a little too interesting late, the Panthers' defense did a nice job overall in handling Georgia Tech's triple-option offense. Pitt surrendered 320 total rushing yards, which is the second-lowest total allowed against that team during the Pat Narduzzi era (the Panthers held the Yellow Jackets to just 241 yards rushing in 2016). Last year, the Panthers were smoked for 436 rushing yards and 6.5 yards per attempt (compared to 5.7 per attempt on Saturday).
THE NATIONAL TREND
• NHL scoring on the rise: While nobody will mistake today’s NHL for the free-flowing game that produced arcade-like scores in the 1980s and early ‘90s, there was a noticeable uptick in lamp-lighting last season. NHL teams scored an average of 2.97 goals per game in 2017-18, up from 2.77 during the 2016-17 campaign. Last year’s scoring rate was the highest since 2005-06, a season that followed a strike and featured a variety of rule changes that boosted offense. The power play was key in the scoring uptick. Teams scored on the power play 20.2% of the time last year, the highest league-wide rate since 1989-90.
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