Welcome to Stats ‘N’ At, a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
Fresh off another late-game gutting of the Bengals, the Steelers enter a bye week. Ordinarily, a bye provides some extra time to rest, reflect, and study film. But these are the 2018 Steelers we're talking about, so there will be no reprieve from the daily (hourly?) drama surrounding this team. Will Le'Veon Bell report this week? How will his teammates react? And here's the most important--and once-improbable--question of all: If Bell returns, will he actually get his job back?
James Conner, Bell's erstwhile backup, has long since left the realm of great human interest story and entered that of the NFL's best running backs.
Six games into the 2018 season, Conner ranks fifth in rushing yards (453). Among running backs with at least 75 carries, the former Pitt star places seventh in rushing yards per attempt (4.4). He's trucking people, as Cincinnati's Shawn Williams and Vontaze Burfict can attest (Conner leads the NFL in forced missed tackles), and he's breaking off more big plays than anyone could have imagined. Heading into the 2017 NFL Draft, scouts were skeptical that Conner possessed the speed and athleticism to gain more than three or four hard-fought yards at a time. Yet, Conner has already ripped off five runs of more than 20 yards. That's tied with the Jets' Isaiah Crowell, the Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott, and the Rams' Todd Gurley for the third-most 20+ yard rushes in 2018. Only the Giants' Saquon Barkley (seven 20+ yard runs), the number two overall pick in the '18 draft, and the 49ers' Matt Breida (six) have been more explosive out of the backfield.
Scouts also questioned Conner's hands, a reasonable critique considering that today's running backs catch more passes and that Conner had just 412 combined receiving yards at Pitt. Consider this another challenge accepted: Conner has 257 receiving yards, a 74.3% catch rate, and an average of 9.9 yards per reception. He ranks eighth among NFL running backs in receiving yards per game (42.8) and third in yards per reception, behind only the Bears' Tarik Cohen and Gurley. Bell's career averages as a pass-catcher? 42.9 yards per game and 8.5 yards per reception.
Put it all together, and Conner has produced 710 yards from scrimmage -- a total that trails only that of Gurley (870), Barkley (811), Elliott (752), and the Chargers' Melvin Gordon (745). If Conner managed to keep up this pace through the end of the 2018 season (which, of course, is only possible if Bell's extended vacation continues), he would finish with 1,893 total yards from scrimmage. That would be one of the five-highest single-season marks for a Steelers running back in franchise history:
Maybe Conner isn't this good long-term, but he's clearly no longer regarded as a backup RB and short-yardage battering ram. Bell's holdout provided a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for Conner, and he has balled out. With Bell seeking $17 million or more per season and Conner making under a million on a rookie contract, you don't have to be a scout or a salary cap guru to see who will be the Steelers' feature back over the long haul.
MORE STEELERS
• Dual threat at tight end: For the first time since Heath Miller retired, the Steelers have a play-making receiver at tight end. Two of them, actually. Both Jesse James (274) and Vance McDonald (274) rank in the top ten among NFL tight ends in receiving yards. James ranks in the top five in both yards per reception (16.1) and catch rate (81%), while McDonald cracks the top ten at his position in yards per reception (13.7) and top five in catch rate (80%). McDonald has a history of making big plays when healthy enough to take the field (career 13.6 yards per reception), but James' game-breaking ability is newly discovered (career 9.7 yards per catch). Suddenly, the Steelers look loaded at the position.
• Watch your back, Baker: After the bye week, the Steelers will look to avenge a season-opening tie when they host the Browns. Rookie Baker Mayfield and the Browns' offensive line will have to avoid the wrath of the Steelers' pass rush, which ranks second in the NFL with 22 sacks. Cleveland's line, sans Joe Thomas, has struggled to protect the first overall pick in the 2018 draft. The Browns have surrendered a sack on 9.9% of passing attempts, which is the sixth-highest rate among NFL teams. Part of that total could be on Mayfield, though. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Mayfield has taken an average of 2.9 seconds to throw a pass from the time that the ball was snapped. That's one of the five highest times to throw among NFL QBs.
PENGUINS
• Nice guy. Tries hard. Has wicked Shot. Phil Kessel has quickly put to rest any lingering concern over last year's postseason struggles. He's not shooting the puck a lot in 2018-19 (2.25 shots per game so far), but he's blowing pucks past goalies on breakaways and even face offs. One key to his success is that he can rip off a shot in record time. Since the beginning of the 2017-18 season, Kessel leads all NHL players in goals scored off of snap shots, according to NHL.com. With 15 such goals, Kessel edges out the likes of Patrik Laine (14), Taylor Hall (13), teammate Evgeni Malkin (11) and Claude Giroux (10). With his quick release in fine form, Kessel could make a run at topping his career-best point total of 92 established last season.
• Sprong still scuffling: Daniel Sprong scored a point per game last season with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins. Jim Rutherford named him a potential breakout star, and Mike Sullivan gave Sprong an opportunity to play on the Penguins' top line on Sidney Crosby's wing. But, after an uneven preseason and start to the 2018-19 campaign, the 21-year-old is now averaging single-digit minutes per game as a fourth-line afterthought. In limited ice time, Sprong has among the worst puck possession metrics on a team that has struggled overall to control the game. His Corsi For Percentage, a measure of a player's ability to generate shots for his team and suppress them for the opponent, is a team-worst 33.9%. With Sprong on the ice, the Penguins have allowed more than twice as many shots as they have taken, and have generated just over 30% of total scoring chances. Sprong likely isn't going anywhere -- he would have to clear waivers to return to the American Hockey League -- but his current situation certainly doesn't help his long-term development.
• A little help here? By committing frequent turnovers and fueling the opponent's transition game, the Penguins have hardly put their goaltenders in an ideal spot. But even so, they could stand to make a few more saves in crucial situations. Penguins goalies have the lowest high-danger save percentage (.697) among all NHL teams, according to Natural Stat Trick. High-danger saves are stops made on scoring chances for the opposition that have a high probability of ending up as a goal, based on shot location, shot angle, and odd-man rush opportunities.
PIRATES
• Archer gets better, luckier in September: In the inaugural edition of Stats 'N'At, we broke down why newly-acquired starter Chris Archer was due for a turnaround after a few early, awful starts for the Pirates. That turnaround came, as the former Ray reduced his ERA from 6.45 in August to 2.70 in September. Archer, who was incredibly unlucky in August (his .377 batting average on balls in play was nearly 80 points above his career average), was much more fortunate during the season's last month (.279 batting average on balls in play). It wasn't all luck, though. Archer raised his game. He racked up more strikeouts (30.5% of batters faced in September, compared to 22.4% in August), issued fewer walks (7.6%, 8.4% in August) and induced weaker contact (36.1% of balls put in play against him in September were classified as hard-hit, down from 39.7% the previous month).
• Baserunning blunders: As Neal Huntington and the Pirates' search for that extra monthly win that separates the franchise from the playoffs, the focus is understandably on beefing up a low-power offense and shoring up the defense. But heading into 2019, the Pirates should also strive to be better on the base paths. This past season, the Pirates ran into the fifth most outs on the bases (62) among all MLB teams. And many of those outs came at a high cost: Baserunners were gunned out at the plate 23 times, which tied the Rays for the second-highest total among all clubs. Josh Bell (thrown out on the bases nine times), Gregory Polanco (8) and Starling Marte (8) were the most egregious offenders.
• Replacing Santana's high-leverage innings: Overall, the Pirates' bullpen was a strength in 2018. Pittsburgh's relievers ranked seventh in the majors in Fielding Independent ERA (FIP), a more reliable estimate of pitching talent than ERA which accounts for strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. Many of last year's high-performing arms--Felipe Vazquez, Kyle Crick, Keone Kela and Richard Rodriguez among them--figure to return next season. Unfortunately, Edgar Santana will be on the shelf after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Manager Clint Hurdle displayed ample trust in Santana, routinely deploying him in high-pressure situations. Santana tied with Crick for the second-highest Leverage Index (LI) among Pirates relievers, at 1.2. LI measures the importance of the game situation in which a player pitches, including the score, inning, and base/out state. An average LI is 1, and a total above 1 means that a pitcher is taking the mound in higher-pressure situations where his performance can swing the outcome of the game. Kela and Crick figure to handle important innings in front of Vazquez, but Hurdle might have to trust Rodriguez (0.85 LI) in more tense situations without Santana available.
COLLEGES
• Congrats, Trace: No one at Penn State is in the mood to party--not after consecutive close, heart-wrenching losses have stamped out hopes of making the College Football Playoff--but we should still celebrate QB Trace McSorley's continued re-writing of the Nittany Lions' record book. During the Michigan State game, McSorley became Penn State's all-time passing yards leader (8,611), topping previous record holder Christian Hackenberg (8,457). McSorley is also the Nittany Lions' all-time leader in passing touchdowns (70), total touchdowns (94), and total offensive yards (9,956). With a few more big games on the ground, McSorley (1,346 career rushing yards) could overtake Michael Robinson (1,637) as Penn State's all-time rushing leader among QBs, too.
• Pitt's passing attack MIA: The Panthers nearly knocked off undefeated Notre Dame, thanks to a quality defensive effort and explosive special teams play. The passing game, however, remains anemic. QB Kenny Pickett completed 19 of 28 passes against the Fighting Irish, but finished with just 126 yards through the air (a mere 4.5 passing yards per attempt). So far in 2018, Pitt ranks 120th among FBS teams in average passing yards per game (145.9). Essentially, they're better than only a small handful of schools outside of those that run a triple-option offense. Among QBs who have averaged at least 14 passes per game, Pickett ranks 102nd out of 112 players in average passing yards per attempt (5.9). If the Panthers are going to have a prayer of reaching a bowl game, they'll have to find some semblance of balance on offense and manage to connect on more than a few check-down passes.
• New special teams ace: With Quadree Henderson declaring early for the NFL Draft, Pitt's return game figured to suffer a major drop-off in 2018. That hasn't happened, thanks to a breakout performance by Maurice Ffrench. The junior receiver zipped 99 yards down the sideline against Notre Dame to start the second half, topping his 91-yard kick return TD versus Albany during the season opener. Buoyed by Ffrench's huge plays, the Panthers rank fifth among FBS schools in kick return average (28.9 yards).
THE NATIONAL TREND
• All-time passing leader .. for now: Kudos to Drew Brees, who recently became the NFL's all-time leader in career passing yards (72,103). Brees now sits atop the list ahead of Peyton Manning (71,940), Brett Favre (71,838), Tom Brady (67,418) and Dan Marino (61,361). It's a remarkable accomplishment for a former second-round pick who once lost his job in San Diego and suffered a devastating shoulder injury that nearly ended his career in his mid-to-late twenties. That said, Brees shouldn't get too attached to that record. Given the state of the NFL--in which passing is king, receivers can't be jammed much, and so much as thinking about hitting the QB might draw a penalty (looking at you, T.J. Watt) -- it's a matter of when, not if, someone breaks Brees' mark. In 2018, NFL teams are on pace to set new records in terms of passing attempts per game (36.2), passing yards per game (256.3) completion rate (65%) and touchdowns thrown per game (1.8).
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