Welcome to Stats ‘N’ At, a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define the Pittsburgh sports scene.
Finally!
That undoubtedly was the sentiment of many fans after the Steelers selected Artie Burns with the 25th pick in the 2016 draft. Despite the NFL becoming more of a passing-oriented league with each new season, they hadn't invested a first-round pick in a corner since taking Chad Scott in the 1997 draft. Burns, though, brought size, speed, and swagger with him from the U. Finally, Pittsburgh had a corner capable of containing the game's ever-growing cadre of big-play receivers.
"Finally" was also the sentiment of many Steelers fans after Burns was yanked from the field, mid-series, against the Cincinnati Bengals on October 14. After two seasons during which he flashed elite talent but also endured lapses in his play, Burns has lost his grip on a starting job. The Steelers' presumed shutdown corner has instead become a favorite target of opposing quarterbacks.
Burns has been targeted by the quarterback on 16% of his defensive snaps played this year, according to playerprofiler.com. That's the sixth-highest target rate among all NFL cornerbacks. Burns was challenged often last year, too (16.6% of defensive snaps), but his performance has nosedived in 2018. After allowing 37 receptions for 466 yards last season, Burns has already given up 15 catches for 231 yards despite seeing his playing time dwindle in recent weeks (he played 88 snaps in Week 1, 58 in Week 2, 25 in Week 3, 52 in Week 4, 41 in Week 5, and 29 in Week 6). Compared to 2017, Burns is allowing a higher catch rate and more yards per catch, and he's already responsible for twice as many touchdowns as he was all of last season:
In 2017, quarterbacks had a 65.6 passer rating when targeting Burns (11th-best among corners). Basically, QBs were about as effective as Buffalo rookie Josh Allen when challenging Burns (which is to say, not effective at all). In 2018, though? QBs have a 126.8 passer rating against Burns. That's Drew Brees territory.
Burns is still just 23, but his time as a Steeler could be winding down heading into 2019 unless he forges a massive turnaround. Next spring, GM Kevin Colbert and company will have to decide whether they want to pick up the fifth-year player option on Burns' contract--which could be a $10 million proposition (albeit a non-guaranteed one, and he'll almost assuredly remain with the team through 2019 even if they decline the option). If you thought that picking up Bud Dupree's option was a stretch, that would have nothing on picking up the option on Burns in his present, scorched state. There's a lot at stake for the player and the team in the weeks to come. Burns has much to prove--starting with reclaiming his job from journeyman Coty Sensabaugh.
MORE STEELERS
• Mayfield off the mark: Browns QB Baker Mayfield was exceptionally accurate during his college career, completing 68.5% of his passes. During his first taste of the NFL, however, the first overall pick in the draft has connected on a mere 57.8% of his passes. Is this a case of Mayfield being off target, or are the Browns' receivers letting him down? NFL's Next Gen Stats provide some insight. According to Next Gen Stats, Mayfield's expected completion percentage--calculated based on a variety of factors that include the pass air distance, air yards, the distance between a receiver and the nearest defender, the distance between the QB and the nearest pass-rusher, and the speed of the QB's throw--is 63.2%. That means that Mayfield is completing -5.4% fewer passes than expected, based on the difficulty of the throws that he has made. The Steelers' tortured DBs have to hope that the prized rookie continues to struggle with his accuracy.
• Washington's disappearing act: Rookie wide receiver James Washington hasn't made the combat catches or game-shifting plays that made him legendary at Oklahoma State, notorious at Pitt, and worthy of a second-round pick in the eyes of Steelers brass. Among all wideouts taken in the top three rounds of the 2018 draft, Washington ranks last in receiving yards (49), yards per reception (9.8), and catch percentage (35.7). In fact, if he doesn't pick up as the season progresses, Washington will turn in one of the most quiet rookie seasons for a receiver in recent history. Among all rookie receivers selected in the top three rounds of the 2008-2018 drafts, Washington would have the second-lowest yards per game total, third-lowest catch rate, and eighth-lowest yards per reception total. It's far too early to call Washington a bust, and the Steelers' lack of a third wide receiver hasn't been much of a problem with Vance McDonald and Jesse James thriving at tight end. But it's fair to say that Oklahoma State's all-time leading receiver hasn't acclimated to the NFL as quickly as many pundits thought.
PENGUINS
• Letang in fine form: Now 18 months removed from major neck surgery, Kris Letang looks poised to have one of the best seasons of his distinguished career. With Letang on the ice, the Penguins are dominating puck possession. His Corsi For percentage--a measure of possession that looks at the share of shots that a team takes and gives up with a particular player on the ice--is 57.5. That's the second-best mark among all Penguins players (Brian Dumoulin is the surprising leader there), and it would be the highest Corsi For rate of Letang's career. With Letang, the Penguins are getting 58.5% of scoring chances (tops on the team) and 64% of high-danger scoring chances (second-best, again behind Dumoulin). His early-season work looks even more impressive when you consider how much the Penguins have struggled to possess the puck and create offense when he isn't on the ice. With Letang skating, the Penguins generate 16.7% more of the total shots taken in a game compared to when he's on the bench.
• Hornqvist isn't keeping office hours: Patric Hornqvist ascended from being the NHL's version of Mr. Irrelevant (last pick in the 2005 NHL draft, number 230 overall) to earning a five-year, $26.5 million contract extension by crashing the net like few others in recent memory. But early in the 2018-19 season, Hornqvist's shot selection looks more like that of the long-distance sniper for whom he was traded, James Neal. According to the Icy Data website, he has taken 27% of his total shots from near the neutral zone (compared to 3% last season), and 20% from outside of the offensive faceoff circles (6% in 2017-18). Twenty-six percent of Hornqvist's shots have come from within the faceoff circles (18% last year). Only 27% of his shots have come from the area inside the faceoff circles that is in front of the net (54% last year), and he has yet to attempt a shot from within the goalie crease after doing do so 19% of the time in 2017-18.
Part of the problem could be lineup shuffling. Hornqvist thrives on Sidney Crosby's wing, but might struggle to generate as much offense when he doesn't have Sid also driving toward the net and creating juicy rebounds and deflection opportunities. When Hornqvist is on the ice with Crosby in 2018-19, The Penguins have generated about 62.7% of the total shots taken. When Hornqvist is playing on a line centered by someone else, the Penguins have taken only 39.6% of total shots.
• Riikola, Maatta coughing up: The Penguins' pair of Finnish blue liners, Juuso Riikola and Olli Maatta, have both turned over the puck at alarming rates during the early part of the season. Riikola, a 24-year-old rookie who played his way from the Liiga to the NHL, has committed 4.8 giveaways per 60 minutes of ice time. Maatta, a healthy scratch earlier this year before Justin Schultz suffered a gruesome leg injury, has 4.3 giveaways per 60 minutes--more than double his rate from last year (2.0). Both Riikola and Maatta rank in the top 20 among all NHL defensemen in giveaways per 60 minutes of ice time. The Penguins want their defensemen to create offense and play aggressively, but these two are fueling the other team's attack far too often, thus far.
PIRATES
• Handle the heat? As the Pirates search for a new hitting coach, they might want to consider someone with expertise in crushing fastballs. Last year, Pittsburgh saw the tenth-highest percentage of fastballs (55.7% of total pitches) among all MLB teams and ranked 22nd in Fangraphs' Runs/100 value against the pitch. Runs/100 compares a player's performance against a certain pitch to that of the MLB average, per 100 pitches seen. A positive number means that a hitter was above average against that type of pitch, and a negative number means he was below-average. Overall, the Pirates had a -0.1 Runs/100 value versus the heat. Three of the batters who struggled the most were recent Indianapolis Indians call-ups Kevin Newman (-2.1 Runs/100), Jordan Luplow (-0.4) and Jose Osuna (-0.2).
• Musgrove battles back: While his season ended prematurely due to an injury that recently required core muscle surgery, Joe Musgrove established himself as an important piece of the Pirates' starting rotation. One of the key reasons for the former Astro's success? He learned to limit damage during at-bats where he fell behind the opposing batter. In 2017, opponents had a 1.244 On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) against Musgrove when he fell behind in the count. Basically, any batter who worked his way into a favorable ball-strike situation morphed into Barry Bonds circa 2001. In 2018, however, Musgrove limited batters to an .801 OPS when he fell behind in the count. That was more than 160 points below the overall MLB average for pitchers in ABs where they fell behind the hitter.
• Diaz vs. slow stuff: Once regarded as a defense-first backup, Elias Diaz displayed unexpected pop in 2018 while making the case that he should be the Pirates' long-term starter behind the plate. Diaz made huge strides in handling breaking pitches (he slugged .515 against them in 2018, after slugging .286 in 2017) and off-speed stuff (.500 slugging percentage in 2017, .310 in 2017). After failing to hit a single home run against a curveball, slider, changeup or a splitter in 2017, he launched seven bombs against those pitch types this past season.
COLLEGES
• Pitt's power run: While the Panthers' passing game is practically nonexistent (they rank 120th among FBS schools in passing yards per game), Pitt is churning out yards on the ground with ease. Pitt ranks 35th in the FBS in rushing yards per attempt (5.0) and 47th in yards per game (191.3). While plenty of credit should go to running backs Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall, don't forget about the big uglies up front. The Panthers' offensive line ranks 21st in the FBS in Adjusted Line Yards (ALY), a Football Outsiders stat that attempts to separate the performance of a running back from his linemen. ALY primarily focuses on the yardage gained closer to the line of scrimmage--the yards that a runner tends to gain because his linemen cleared a path for him. Pitt's O-line has been especially productive in short-yardage situations: they lead the nation in Power Success Rate, which is the percentage of runs on third or fourth down with less than two yards to go that are converted into first downs.
• In a tight (end) spot: How depleted is Pitt's depth at the tight end position following the departures of Chris Clark and Tyler Sear? They were forced to deploy offensive lineman Carson Van Lynn, a redshirt freshman, at tight end against Notre Dame. Collectively, Pitt's tight ends have caught just seven passes for 52 yards during the 2018 season. Maybe redshirt freshman Grant Carrigan, a former Pine-Richland standout who rated as the top TE in the state a couple of years ago, or converted D-lineman Kaymar Mimes can offer some long-term hope. But for now, Mike Ditka's alma mater might be down to Arkansas graduate transfer Will Gragg or a glorified sixth lineman at the tight end spot.
• Winning ugly: Penn State did end a two-game losing streak by defeating Indiana, 33-28, but it was hardly the kind of decisive victory that the Nittany Lions need in order to play in a prestigious bowl game at the end of the year. The Hoosiers badly outgained Penn State in total yards (554 to 417), but some kickoff return magic from Jonathan Thomas and KJ Hamler coupled with timely turnovers bailed out the Nittany Lions. According to Sports-Reference, the 554 yards that Penn State allowed are the fifth-most that the school has surrendered since the turn of the new millennium. The other four games in which they gave up 550+ yards (686 against Ohio State in 2013, 602 versus Miami in 2001, 600 versus Houston in 2012 and 575 versus USC in the 2017 Rose Bowl) all ended in defeat.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Why starting pitchers as we know them are going away: Openers, out-getters...whatever you want to call them, it's clear that relief pitchers are taking on more of a prominent role in today's MLB. During the regular season, starters averaged just 5.4 innings pitched per outing--down considerably from a decade ago (5.8 in 2008). That trend is on full display during the postseason, when teams have extra built-in off days and can play matchups and lean on their relief aces more than ever. Why are starting pitchers getting yanked earlier these days? Through some combination of hitters making adjustments, pitcher fatigue, and just overall pitcher development, starters lose steam as the game progresses. And more analytically-inclined teams have taken notice, adjusting their strategy in response. Overall in 2018, MLB starters have limited opponents to a .700 OPS the first time through the lineup. That figures climbs to .731 the second time through the lineup, and .784 when facing batters for a third time. For comparison's sake, relievers limit hitters to a .720 OPS when facing opponents for the first time.
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