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During the first game of the 2018 season, Ben Roethlisberger looked old. The two-time Super Bowl champion and future Hall of Famer threw three interceptions in a mystifying, rain-soaked game against the Browns that ended in a tie. He was sacked four times, his deep ball wobbled, and he seemed to miss some of the tight throwing windows that he had typically hit with ease. With their star QB looking diminished, the Steelers' window appeared to be closing.
Two months later, Roethlisberger was on the sideline. Not because he lost his job or got hurt, but rather because he had just clowned the Panthers so badly that the fourth quarter of the Steelers' eventual 52-21 victory was rendered meaningless. He posted a perfect quarterback rating (158.3) and tossed five touchdown passes to five different receivers, leading the Steelers to their highest single-game point total in Heinz Field history and their fourth-highest point total in franchise history.
At age 36, and with his likely eventual successor on the roster, Big Ben is turning back the clock.
Overall in 2018, Roethlisberger has thrown 21 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He ranks second among NFL QBs in passing yards per game (320.9), behind only Matt Ryan, and his projected full-season total of 5,134 would be the eighth-highest total in NFL history. Roethlisberger's 100.9 quarterback rating is the third-best single-season mark in Steelers history, behind his own performances 2007 (104.1) and 2014 (103.3). The only players to post a higher QB rating at age 35 or older are Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Brett Favre, Randall Cunningham, Y.A. Tittle, Steve Young, Carson Palmer, Dave Krieg, and Vinny Testaverde.
While Ben's deep passes often missed the mark early in the season, he's back to being a gunslinger. During the first four games of the 2018 season, Roethlisberger gained an average of seven yards per pass when he attempted a throw that traveled at least 20 yards downfield, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Since then, Roethlisberger has gained an average of 17.5 yards per pass when attempting a throw of 20+ yards.
Roethlisberger hasn't been sharp when throwing deep passes to the middle of the field, but he has been superb when going deep down the sidelines. Take a look at his QB Rating Above Average (QBRAA) by throwing location in 2018. QBRAA, made up just now by your Stats 'N'At author, compares a player's QB rating while throwing to a particular zone on the field to that of the average NFL QB. A number of 100 is league average. A number below 100 means that a QB is worse than average when throwing to a particular spot on the field, while a number above 100 means that he's better than average.
Roethlisberger no longer hints at retirement, and for good reason. He has a plethora of playmakers at his disposal, and an offensive line that pass blocks like the fate of Western civilization rests upon the outcome. Plus, the NFL is doing everything possible to protect QBs short of covering them in bubble wrap. With Roethlisberger's skills intact and a Super Bowl-contending team surrounding him, Mason Rudolph is gonna be on clipboard duty for a while.
MORE STEELERS
• Linebackers back in Blitzburgh: After hounding Cam Newton all night long, the Steelers' defense is tied for first with 31 sacks on the season. Pittsburgh is on pace for 55 sacks, which would tie for the second-highest single-season mark in franchise history. The Steelers set a new record with 56 QB take downs in 2017, and racked up 55 sacks in both 1994 and 2001.
While the Steelers are crushing QBs at a similarly torrid pace as last season, the type of player doing the damage has changed. In 2017, 10.7% of the team's sacks came from defensive backs, 41.1% came from defensive lineman, and 48.2% came from linebackers. This season, the secondary has yet to record a sack. The D-line has 37.1% of the sacks (led by Cameron Heyward's 4.5), and the linebackers are responsible for 62.9% of the Steelers' total. T.J. Watt leads the linebackers and the team overall with eight sacks. He's on pace for 14 take downs in 2018, which would tie him with Kevin Greene (1994) and Keith Willis (1983) for the third-best single-season mark in team history. James Harrison recorded 16 sacks in 2008, and Mike Merriweather had 15 back in 1984.
• In the zone: The Steelers' next opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, enter Week 11 with their playoff hopes practically nonexistent. While the Jaguars' defense is still dominant (third in yards allowed per game and tenth in points allowed), the offense (17th in yards per game and 29th in points) is downright wretched. Jacksonville had been without running back Leonard Fournette (hamstring injury) for much of the season, and his absence has been felt most in the red zone. In 2017, the Jaguars led all NFL teams by scoring a touchdown 69% of the time once they entered the red zone. This year, they're 28th in the league with a 45% red zone scoring rate.
The Steelers' offense, meanwhile, has done the exact opposite by showing a major improvement in the red zone. Last year, Pittsburgh ranked 18th in red zone scoring (53%). In 2018? They're hitting pay dirt an NFL-best 78.6% of the time.
PENGUINS
• Murray playing a dangerous game: The Penguins have allowed the 18th-most high-danger scoring chances (those that have the best odds of becoming goals based on shot location, shot angle, and odd-man rush situations) among all NHL teams this season. While they have room for improvement in that area, that especially goes for goalie Matt Murray's ability to stop those high-danger shots. Murray has a .754 save percentage against high-danger shots in 2018-19, which ranks 37th out of 38 goalies who have logged more than 300 minutes of ice time. That's a sharp departure from Murray's previous three seasons, when he frequently bailed out the Penguins when they gave the opposing team a prime scoring opportunity Between the 2015-16 and 2017-18 seasons, Murray had a .863 high-danger save percentage. Among starting goalies, only Corey Crawford had a better high-danger save rate over that time frame.
• Stars and scrubs: Entering the 2018-19 season, Penguins management and players touted the franchise's improved depth at the forward position. But, to this point, they have resembled the kind of star-laden-but-shallow Penguins teams that prematurely exited the playoffs in previous years. Matt Cullen (39.9% of total shots generated when he's on the ice), Daniel Sprong (42.5%), Riley Sheahan (42.7%) Derek Grant (44.4%) and Derick Brassard (45.1%) have been the biggest drags on the team's puck possession numbers. With the bottom six scuffling, the Penguins are having a hard time controlling the puck despite the quality play of guys like Sidney Crosby (55.4% shot share), Jake Guentzel (54.4%), Carl Hagelin (52.3%), Evgeni Malkin (52.1%), Dominik Simon (51.7%) and Phil Kessel (51.2%). The lack of bottom-six production is why Garrett Wilson and Zach Aston-Reese are back in the NHL, and why Jim Rutherford is strongly suggesting that additional moves could be forthcoming.
• DeSmith defies expectations: While Murray's play has been uneven, Casey DeSmith has been a brick wall. The former undrafted free agent, just a few years removed from playing in the ECHL and being buried on the Penguins' organizational depth chart, continues to impress in part-time play. Over the past two seasons, DeSmith has a .937 save percentage in five-on-five situations. His expected five-on-five save percentage-- which factors in the difficulty of the attempts that goalies face based on shot location, shot angle, and odd-man/breakaway situations--is .921. So, DeSmith is stopping more pucks that you would expect, given the quality of shots with which he has been challenged. DeSmith has one of the five highest positive differentials between his expected and actual save percentage among goalies who have at least 1,000 minutes of ice time since the beginning of the 2017-18 season, according to Corsica Hockey.
PIRATES
• Bell's failure to launch: New Pirates hitting coach Rick Eckstein is tasked with coaxing more power out of a lineup that ranked 13th in home runs and eighth in slugging percentage among National League clubs in 2018. First baseman Josh Bell will be one of his most important projects. The 6-foot-4, 235 pound switch-hitter has hit a ground ball nearly half of the time that he has put the ball in play during his career (49.9%). Despite his hulking frame, Bell's current swing just isn't conducive to extra-base power. According to MLB Statcast, Bell's launch angle has ranged between 6.8 degrees in 2016 to 9.2 degrees in 2018. Launch angle is the vertical angle at which the ball leaves the bat after the hitter makes contact. To put that into context, a launch angle of less than ten degrees typically leads to a ground ball. A launch angle of 10-25 degrees often results in a line drive. And a launch angle of between 25-30 degrees is the sweet spot for hitting home runs. Bell has managed to be a decent hitter because of his patience and contact ability, but there's a ceiling on his game unless he learns to let it rip at the plate.
• Better infield needed: First base is hardly the only position at which the Pirates need to improve in 2019. Take a look at the team's position-by-position Wins Above Replacement (WAR) totals in 2018. WAR estimates a player's total offensive, defensive, and base running value compared to that of a Quad-A-type player. In parentheses, you'll find the Pirates' rank at the position among all MLB teams:
Catcher: 5.3 WAR (#1)
First Base: 0.8 WAR (#21)
Second Base: 1.1 WAR (#21)
Shortstop: 0.2 WAR (#29)
Third Base: 1.4 WAR (#22)
Left Field: 3.5 WAR (#11)
Center Field: 3.9 WAR (#10)
Right Field: 3.2 WAR (#12)
The Pirates will look for in-house improvement at first base (Bell), second base (Adam Frazier) and likely third base (some combination of Jung Ho Kang, Colin Moran, Kevin Kramer and Pablo Reyes, with top prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes a possible in-season option). Shortstop is more fluid. Former first-round pick Kevin Newman had a brutal introduction to the majors (a .478 On-Base-Plus Slugging Percentage in 97 plate appearances), and free agent Jordy Mercer doesn't figure to be back unless he's willing to take a cut in salary and playing time (the 32-year-old's defensive range has taken a big hit, too). The Pirates could show some interest in free agent shortstop Jose Iglesias, a slick fielder who's entering his age-29 season and turned in a 2.5 WAR season in 2018.
• Replacing Polanco: The Pirates could be without the services of Gregory Polanco (left shoulder surgery) until mid-season, depriving the club of its 2018 leader in home runs (23) and On-Base-Plus-Slugging Percentage (.839). If the Pirates choose to stick with in-house options in right field while Polanco rehabs, the offense figures to take a sizable hit. Over the course of 300 plate appearances (roughly half a year's worth of playing time), Polanco's bat is worth about +8 runs more than that of the average MLB hitter once you adjust for park factors. According to the 2019 Steamer player projections available on Fangraph--which forecasts player performance based on past production and aging trends--Jordan Luplow (a projection of -0.5 batting runs per 300 plate appearances next year), Pablo Reyes (-3.7) and Jose Osuna (+0.3) don't figure to come near Polanco's production level. Frazier (+1.1 batting runs per 300 PA) could also fill in on occasion, though the Pirates seemingly want him to play every day at second base. One free agent name to keep in mind: Marwin Gonzalez, a 29-year-old switch-hitter who has cracked a combined 39 homers over the past two years and can also play every infield position.
COLLEGES
• More ground game history: Pitt gained bowl eligibility and sprinted towards an Atlantic Coast Conference Coastal Division title behind a running game that's re-writing school record books on a weekly basis. The Panthers gained 492 rushing yards versus Virginia Tech, which tops the 484 yards that they compiled versus Duke on October 27 this season for the second-highest single-game total in Pitt's 114-year football history (they had 530 rushing yards at Army on October 18, 1975). Qadree Ollison (235 yards, 14.7 yards per carry) broke off a 97-yard run, which is Pitt's longest offensive play ever. His fourth-quarter home run broke the previous record set by running mate Darrin Hall, who had a 92-yard dash against Duke in 2017. After yet another epic game, the Panthers rank fourth among all FBS schools in rushing yards per attempt (6.5) and tenth in yards per game (256.9). The only teams that are running the ball more effectively on a per-carry basis are Oklahoma, Pitt's potential ACC title game opponent (Clemson), and Memphis. Ollison (1,054 rushing yards in 2018) and Hall (who has 844 after a seven-carry, 186 yard performance versus the Hokies) have a good chance of becoming the first pair of Panthers runners to top 1,000 yards each in the same season.
• Going bowling: The 2017 Panthers missed out on a bowl game--the first time that the school do so since 2007--but this year's team won't suffer the same fate. And, if Pitt can finish the regular season with victories at Wake Forest and Miami (to say nothing of a strong showing in a possible ACC title game showdown), they'll have a case for receiving more than bottom-of-the-barrel bowl game. The Panthers rank 23rd in the FBS in strength of schedule, and their wins over Syracuse (8-2), Virginia (7-3) and Duke (7-3) look more impressive by the week. According to Sports-Reference, Pitt has faced the most difficult slate of games among any team in the ACC.
• Happy Valley: Blitzburgh East? Wisconsin's vaunted offensive line had allowed only 13 sacks on the season entering its game with Penn State, but the Nittany Lions managed to take down fill-in QB Jack Coan five times. With 34 sacks, Penn State places is tied for sixth among all FBS schools. Yetur Gross-Matos (eight sacks) has done the most damage, followed by Shareef Miller (6) and Shaka Toney (5). If the Nittany Lions can torture QBs at Rutgers and versus Maryland, they could surpass last year's team total of 42 sacks.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Show them the money: Last winter was awfully quiet on the MLB free agency front, with teams committing a total of $1.51 billion to players on the open market (according to Spotrac). For comparison's sake, teams forked over a total of $2.42 billion as recently as 2016. There are plenty of reasons for the downturn, from a relatively weak free agent class, to teams valuing younger and cheaper players and refusing to pay for past performance, to big-market clubs wanting to stay under the luxury tax threshold. Another big reason: some clubs were squirreling away cash for a run at two franchise-defining free agents available this winter: outfielder Bryce Harper and shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, both of whom may command contracts worth around $400 million total. That would obliterate the current top free agent contract (the New York Yankees' ten year, $275 million pact with Alex Rodriguez). I wouldn't pre-order your Harper or Machado Pirates jersey, is what I'm saying.
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