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Missing the sudden acceleration out of his cuts to generate separation and an easy throwing window...Rarely shows a second gear to run under the deep throws...corners may squat on underneath routes if they don't fear his vertical speed...
Those critical observations, included in an NFL.com scouting report of a wide receiver eligible for the 2017 draft, paint the picture of a college standout whose game might not translate to the highest level. Sure, he got open against lesser college competition, but quick-twitch NFL corners and safeties can cover him step-for-step. The perception that this wideout wouldn't be a play-maker only strengthened when he ran a 4.54 40-yard dash at the combine--which ranked 32nd out of 49 players at his position. No wonder he lasted until deep into the second round of the draft.
The slow possession receiver described above?
That'd be JuJu Smith-Schuster, a guy who now owns a pair of 97-yard touchdown receptions and who has established himself as a lethal wideout at an age when he could still be crashing in a college dorm room.
After a 13-catch, 189-yard masterpiece against the Denver Broncos, Smith-Schuster ranks sixth among all players in catches (77) and in yards (1,055) in 2018. Despite the concerns that the 6-foot-1, 215 pound USC alumnus wouldn't be a play-maker, he has already made 13 receptions of at least 20 yards this season--topping the 12 that he made during his impressive rookie year. Smith-Schuster is on pace for 1,534 yards this season, which would be the third-highest single-season total in Steelers history. Antonio Brown is the only Steelers receiver to turn in more prolific seasons, with 1,834 yards in 2015 and 1,698 yards in 2014. If Smith-Schuster keeps up this pace, he will top epic seasons by Brown (1,533 in 2017, 1,499 in 2013); Yancey Thigpen (1,398 in 1997); John Stallworth (1,395 in 1984); Hines Ward (1,329 in 2002); Plaxico Burress (1,325 in 2002); Thigpen (1,307 in 1995); Buddy Dial (1,295 in 1963); and Brown again (1,264 in 2016), among many others.
While the NFL is a more pass-oriented league than ever before, Smith-Schuster's production during his first two NFL seasons is unparalleled in Steelers history. He's averaging more than ten yards per game more than any other Pittsburgh wideout has during his first two years in the league:
Smith-Schuster isn't just making Steelers history--he's putting himself in the same company as some of the game's all-time great receivers. So far in his NFL career, he's averaging 78.9 receiving yards per game. That's the 12th-highest rate among receivers in NFL history during the first two years of a career, sandwiched between Hall of Famers Lance Alworth (79.5 in 1962-63) and Jerry Rice (78 in 1985-86). Pretty, pretty good company.
Smith-Schuster just turned 22, which makes him younger than 2018 draft pick James Washington and comparable in age to some of the top 2019 NFL prospects at wide receiver. As scary as this might be for opposing DBs, JuJu might only get better from here. Whatever he lacks in straight-line speed, he more than makes up for in his ability to take just the right angles and put separation between himself and defenders in the open field. For a supposedly slow receiver, Smith-Schuster has reached the ranks of the NFL's best receivers at warp speed.
MORE STEELERS
• Dominating—except on the score board: Without a cornucopia of errors, the Steelers would have easily beaten the Denver Broncos. They outgained the Broncos in total yardage, 527 to 308, but committed four turnovers that ultimately ended the team’s six-game winning streak. Sunday’s debacle was just the tenth time in franchise history that the Steelers outgained their opponent by more than 200 yards, yet still managed to lose the game, according to Pro-Football Reference. Before the Broncos game, the last time that it happened was versus the Chicago Bears in 2013 (+201 total yardage margin in a 40-23 loss). The only other times that it happened during the new millennium came against Kansas City in 2009 (+234 in a 27-24 OT loss), at Oakland in 2006 (+262 in a 20-13 loss), and versus Houston in 2002 (+375 in a 24-6 loss).
Not surprisingly, the Steelers committed more turnovers than their opponent in each of their ten losses where they had a +200 advantage in total yardage. In these games, they coughed up the ball an average of 3.3 more times than the opposition.
• Bye-bye, bye: It’s unlikely that the Steelers’ infuriating, turnover-laden loss to the Denver Broncos costs Pittsburgh a spot in the playoffs. The AFC North is just too mediocre for that to be the case. But, given the gauntlet that awaits the Steelers down the stretch—including games versus the Los Angeles Chargers, the New England Patriots, and at the New Orleans Saints—it could well cost them a first-round bye in the playoffs. Collectively, the teams that the Steelers have played so far in 2018 have a .471 winning percentage. Their remaining opponents have a .600 winning percentage. Pittsburgh’s odds of making the playoffs stand at 93%, according to FiveThirtyEight, but their odds of securing a first-round bye are just 24%. All of those mile-high fumbles and INTs may haunt the Steelers come January.
PENGUINS
• Letang making a point: Where would these 2018-19 Penguins be without the Herculean contributions of Kris Letang? The Norris Trophy contender is averaging 25 minutes, 58 seconds of ice time per game (the second-highest total of his career and third-highest among all NHL defensemen this season) while racking up nearly a point per game. He ranks seventh among defensemen this season in points per game (0.9), and he could challenge his own career-best full-season mark that was set in 2015-16 (0.94 points per game). As if that weren't enough, Letang is posting huge offensive numbers while playing a responsible brand of hockey. He's averaging just 1.98 giveways per 60 minutes of ice time in 2018-19, which is down considerably from his rate of 2.67 giveaways last season. The last time that Letang committed fewer turnovers per 60 minutes was the 2011-12 season (1.61 giveaways). This is peak Kris Letang: aggressive, but not reckless.
• But he's our pain in the @#!: Patric Hornqvist's recent concussion underscores just how important he is to the club. When asked to describe Hornqvist's game, Jack Johnson referred to the crease-crashing Swede as a pain in the you-know-what. And he meant it in the most complimentary way possible. Whether he's deflecting shots, trying to punch in rebounds, or providing a crucial screen, Hornqvist creates scoring chances and drives goalies clinically insane. When Hornqvist has been on the ice in 2018-19, the Penguins have netted 60.9% of the total goals scored in a game, according to Natural Stat Trick. That's the highest goals-for percentage among all Penguins wingers, and ranks behind only Sidney Crosby (68.6%) for the team lead. Hornqvist could approach his career best in goals-for percentage, which was set back in 2009-10 with the Nashville Predators (63.3%).
• The hits keep coming: There's an old-school line of thought that ranking among the top teams in the game in hits is a good thing. It means that you're being physical, and imposing your will on the other team. There are absolutely times when a bone-rattling hit--or even an understated check that pries the puck loose--can change a game. But there's one major flaw in the "if some hits are good, more hits are better" philosophy. If you're delivering a hit, it means you're chasing the puck and not controlling possession. The Penguins rank second among all NHL teams in total hits this season, but they rank just 16th in Corsi-For Percentage--a much more important stat that measures the percentage of overall shots that they Penguins generate. Of the teams that rank in the top ten in hits delivered, only half are currently projected to make the playoffs.
PIRATES
• A win-win deal? The 2019 season will provide another chance to evaluate the merits of the Pirates' blockbuster trade for starting pitcher Chris Archer. According to the Steamer projection system on Fangraphs, which forecasts a player's stats based on past production and aging trends, the Pirates and Rays figure to get similar value from the major league players that they exchanged last July. Archer is projected to be worth 3.8 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2019. WAR is a metric that compares a player's performance to that of a Quad-A or waiver wire-type player. To put that figure in greater context, it would have ranked in the top 20 among all MLB starters last season and would have edged out Jameson Taillon (3.7 WAR) for the best mark among Pirates pitchers. Outfielder Austin Meadows, meanwhile, is projected for 1.4 WAR in 2019, and righty Tyler Glasnow is projected for 2.0 WAR as a starting pitcher. The wild card is Pirates 2017 first-round pick Shane Baz, who was also sent to Tampa. Baz has missed bats in the low minors (9.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched), but the 19-year-old misses the strike zone nearly as often (5.1 walks per nine innings).
• Frazier's newfound power: During the course of the 2018 season, Adam Frazier went from a Triple-A afterthought to the Pirates' projected long-term starter at second base. Frazier improved across the board, including on defense, but his newly-discovered power stroke might have been the most surprising aspect of his breakthrough year. During the first half of 2018. Frazier had the profile of a slap-and-dash hitter. He produced a lot of ground balls (57.4% of balls put in play), he rarely pulled the ball (29.9%), and his rate of hard contact (21.4%) was paltry. During the second half, Frazier--aided by a swing adjustment that included lowering his hands--hit like a poor man's Jose Altuve. Frazier lowered his ground ball rate to 43%, pulled the ball 44% of the time, and boosted his hard-hit rate to 45.3%. His slugging percentage climbed from .355 in the first half to .533 after the All-Star break. Even if Frazier retains some of these gains, he should provide more punch at second base for the Pirates than most teams get from the position (MLB second basemen slugged a collective .395 in 2018).
• Don't test Corey Dickerson: He arrived in Pittsburgh with the reputation of being a natural-born DH that the club would try to hide in left field. A year later, Corey Dickerson is a Gold Glove Award winner who saved the Pirates +16 runs compared to an average left fielder, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved metric. Dickerson made considerable strides in terms of improving the value of his throwing arm. He had seven defensive assists in 1,057 innings in 2018, and was +1 run better than an average-throwing left fielder. Prior to becoming a Pirate, Dickerson had just nine assists in 3,035 career defensive innings played, and his throwing arm had cost his team -9 runs. Through some combination of improved arm strength and accuracy and better defensive positioning, Dickerson turned a liability into an asset.
COLLEGES
• Run for your life: With center Jimmy Morrissey (ankle surgery) out for the season, Pitt was forced re-configure its offensive line. Left guard Connor Dintino moved to Morrissey's old spot, and sophomore Bryce Hargrove became the new starter at left guard. Against Miami, the Panthers' O-line--a catalyst in the team's ACC Coastal Division-winning campaign--was a wreck. A Pitt team that had allowed an average of two sacks per game entering the Miami game allowed the Hurricanes to bring down QB Kenny Pickett on six occasions. That's the most sacks that the Panthers have allowed in a game since the North Carolina Tar Heels registered seven back on November 16, 2013. And a team that entered play against the Hurricanes averaging 6.15 rushing yards per attempt managed just 1.8 yards per carry. The last time that Pitt struggled that much on a per-carry basis was against Virginia Tech on November 17, 2018 (when they also averaged 1.8 yards per carry). Pitt's new-look O-line better gel quickly, considering that their opponent in the ACC Championship Game is teeming with NFL-caliber pass-rushing talent. Clemson is tied for second in the FBS with 43 sacks, led by Clelin Ferrel (10.5 sacks) and Austin Bryant (6.5). Clemson has also allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (84.8) among FBS schools.
• McSorley keeps breaking records: Stop me if you've heard this before: Penn State QB Trace McSorley has established yet another all-time school record. The Nittany Lions' leader in passing yards and touchdowns, total offense, and total touchdowns, among other categories, is now the all-time passing completions leader in Happy Valley. With 12 completions versus Maryland, McSorley has 704 in his career and has moved past Christian Hackenberg (692) for top honors in that category. McSorley looked more mobile than he has in recent weeks, with his right knee injury seemingly on the mend. He's just 16 rushing yards away from passing Michael Robinson (1,637 rushing yards) for the most by a Penn State QB, so look for McSorley to break at least one more record in the Nittany Lions' upcoming bowl game.
• A different kind of freshman 15: The Pitt men's basketball team was expected to show some growth under new head coach Jeff Capel, but his first, surprisingly good recruiting class has adapted to the college game quicker than expected. That freshman cohort is led by 6-foot-3 guard Xavier Johnson, who ranks in the top 20 among all freshmen in points per game (16.7). Over at least the past 25 years, the Panthers have never had a freshman score 15 points per game, according to Sports-Reference's College Basketball Play Index Tool. The only Pitt freshmen to average double-digits in scoring over that time frame are Ricardo Greer (12.4 points per game in 1997-98), DeJuan Blair (11.6 in 2007-08), Chris Taft (10.9 in 2003-04), Au'Diese Toney (10.5 this season) and the since-transferred Marcus Carr (ten in 2017-18).
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Revenge of the veteran running backs: The NFL is the ultimate young man's sport, and no position exemplifies that more than running back--a spot at which players are practically considered AARP-eligible by the time they hit age 30. That overall trend certainly still holds true--the average age of players in the top 10 in rushing yards this season is 24--but two veteran running backs are bucking the trend by remaining fairly productive in their thirties. Washington's Adrian Peterson ranks ninth with 758 rushing yards, and his projected full-season total (1,103) would be the fourth-highest single-season total ever for a running back who's at least 33 years old. The only running backs to hit the 1,000 yard mark at 33 or older are John Riggins (1983 and 1984), former Steelers John Henry Johnson (1962, 1964) and Franco Harris (1983) and Frank Gore (2016). Speaking of Gore, he's still chugging along at age 35 (4.5 yards per carry) and now ranks fourth on the all-time rushing yards list.
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