Last year when the Steelers lost to the Patriots 24-27 in a game where Tom Brady led his team to 11 points in the fourth quarter, many questioned the Steelers' personnel and game plan. Rob Gronkowski took over the game with 168 yards on nine catches and took away the Steelers' chance at home-field advantage in the playoffs.
A year later, the Steelers face the Patriots while trying to hold onto their slim division lead. But their recent struggles highlight similar trends that led to their demise last season:
The Steelers' overhaul at safety was a huge focus, removing all but Sean Davis from the roster and adding Morgan Burnett and Terrell Edmunds in the offseason. That has helped them to become a defense that's ranked 12th against the pass, allowing 233.9 passing yards per game.
But those rankings would be significantly higher were it not for the letdowns by the defense in the team's 3-game losing streak to the Broncos, Chargers and Raiders.
I wrote about Keith Butler's schemes helping against the defense's weaknesses last month, when the Steelers ranked 7th in pass defense with an allowed average of 227.2 yards. During the Steelers' 6-game win streak they gave up an average of 131.83 passing yards per game. That number almost doubles when you calculate the average of passing yards in the losing streak at 256.33.
Sometimes it's not about scheme, but about execution and the need of ballhawks when it comes to breakdowns in pass defense.
Initially when I looked at the tape for the Raiders game, I attributed the final touchdown pass to Derek Carrier a mistake by Hilton for not establishing inside leverage on Carrier and allowing such an easy cutback. But the more I look at the formation and the play, it seems Terrell Edmunds was supposed to help Hilton and not double Jordy Nelson.
Watch how Hilton never tries to get in the hip pocket of Carrier, he's effectively playing the flat. That's not the technique used by a cornerback that's in typical man coverage not expecting help, while you can see Joe Haden fighting inch-for-inch with Nelson in the end zone. But what says it all is when you see Edmunds' reaction just as Hilton walks toward him after the play:
That head down with two hands on the helmet look is the look of a rookie that got lost in the moment. The more I see this play, the more I think Edmunds got stuck on covering Nelson and didn't help Hilton to the inside on Carrier; especially when you consider the Steelers' confidence that Haden can cover any receiver by himself.
But getting beat mentally is compounding with getting beat physically, as you can see Morgan Burnett lose on this out route by Jared Cook for a key third down conversion. Burnett was brought in specifically to help stop tight ends like this, and can't stay in Cook's hip pocket to even challenge the pass:
Burnett showed the savvy to avoid the push off, but wasn't quick enough to stick with Cook on his cut. The opposite happened when it was Edmunds' turn to cover Cook at the line.
Watch how Edmunds initially does a good job with his hands at the line, jabbing his hands to the interior of Cook to prevent him from gaining separation. But as the route develops, Edmunds doesn't continue that fight and lets Cook get his hand inside his chest, giving him the leverage for the push off that creates the space for the throw:
Yes, push-offs are against the rules in the NFL, but that's not a spot a defender should ever expect a call. That's where a defender has to limit the exposure of their chest in coverage and fight every second to win those hand battles. It requires an intense focus with the right physical gifts to put it all together, which is why prime coverage safeties with size are at a premium.
But even when the Steelers are in the right spot and force that tight passing window, the biggest issue they can't solve is how they play the ball. Derek Carr's 39-yard strike to Seth Roberts was amazing because Burnett was in position and if the ball was thrown any slower or shorter, and it's not getting to Roberts:
Burnett is in position, but by the time he turns his head for the ball, it's past him and the Roberts secures the catch. It's why football is a game of inches and seconds. If Burnett was comfortable in his spot and looked just a moment earlier, he might make a play on the ball.
The secondary has been a hair off like that all season, even when they see the ball. Watch how Edmunds covers this post route by Carrier with solid footwork and the quickness to get in his hip pocket and challenge the pass. But at the last second, he cannot finish by intercepting or tipping the pass:
That inability to finish cost them against the Raiders in the biggest moments, and poses to do the same against a more detailed and talented passing attack from the Patriots. Brady and Gronkowski have victimized this franchise for years, and effectively contributed to the exit of most of the Steelers 2017 safeties.
For the offseason investment at safety to be worth it, they have to make a stand against the Patriots this week.
