Welcome to Stats ‘N’ At, a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
In a successful quest for Stanley Cups, the Penguins have traded away top draft picks and well-regarded prospects. They have the ninth-oldest roster in the NHL (average age: 28.3), and their current and future hopes of winning a sixth title are inextricably tied to a core of early-30s superstars. Yet, for all of the concern over the cupboard running bare, the Penguins have proven to be adept at discovering and developing underrated talent--from low-round selections, to undrafted free agents, to international signings.
There might not be a better example of their scouting and development success than Jake Guentzel, a 2013 third-round pick who emerged as a playoff hero before progressing into a regular-season star worthy of playing on Sidney Crosby's line and signing a five-year, $30 million contact extension.
Guentzel entered the 2018-19 campaign with the reputation of being a solid regular-season player who morphed into a legend come springtime. He averaged 0.66 points per game during the 2016-17 and 2017-18 regular seasons, but he racked up 42 points in 37 career playoff games. His 1.14 points per game average is the ninth best all-time among players who have skated in at least 25 playoff games, just behind Crosby's 1.16. This year, playoff Jake decided to stick around. Guentzel is averaging 0.87 points per game, while driving puck possession for the Penguins and limiting opponents' scoring chances.
During his first two seasons, Guentzel's Corsi For--the percentage of total shots generated for the Penguins when he's on the ice in 5-on-5 situations-was 52%. This season, Guentzel has a 55.6% shot share. That's tied with Kris Letang for the second-best mark on the Penguins, trailing only Crosby at 56.8%. Guentzel's possession stats become even more impressive when you compare the Penguins' performance when he's on the ice to when he's on the bench.
His Relative Corsi For Percentage is +7.8%. That means that with Guentzel skating, the Penguins generate 7.8% more shots compared to when he's off the ice. That's the third-best differential on the team, behind Crosby (+9.7%) and Letang (+9.2%), and ranks as the 14th-best rate among all NHL players who have appeared in at least 20 games this season. Guentzel is helping to create lots of scoring chances for the Penguins (a team-best 30.9 per 60 minutes of ice time), but he's also showing the kind of defensive conscience that Mike Sullivan values in his forwards. With Guentzel skating, the Penguins allow 25 scoring chances per 60 minutes. That's the fourth-lowest rate among forwards on the team, and down from about 30 scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes during Guentzel's first two seasons.
Oh, about that Crosby guy.
Guentzel gels with the all-time great like few wingers have in recent years. When Guentzel and Crosby are on the ice together, the Penguins generate 58% of shot attempts, 58.3% of scoring chances, and 70.9% of goals. When Guentzel plays without Crosby, the Penguins generate 46.5% of shots, 45.4% of scoring chances, and 23.1% of goals. So, Guentzel is much better when Sid is centering his line. But, lest you think that Guentzel is just riding Crosby's coattails, there's evidence that the partnership benefits both players. When Crosby skates without Guentzel, the Penguins generate 50.3% of shots, 47.7% of scoring chances, and 60% of goals.
The bottom line: Both Guentzel and Crosby raise their game when they're paired on the same line.
Guentzel's $6 million annual salary might seem lofty to some people, but a player with comparable service time and production just signed for a $6.9 million average annual value in Toronto's William Nylander. The NHL salary cap is also expected to rise by nearly $4 million next season, and the Penguins may shed some money in the meantime by trading a defenseman like Olli Maatta. And, when you adjust Guentzel's stats to make an apples-to-apples comparison to players who skated in a different era, he looks even better. He has the fifth-highest adjusted points per game total in Penguins history during his first three NHL seasons. Adjusted points is a Hockey-Reference stat that adjusts a player's production based on the the offensive environment in which he played. Guentzel's adjusted points per game total during his first three seasons bests the likes of Pierre Larouche (0.96 per game), Mark Recchi (0.95), John Cullen (0.93), Syl Apps (0.9) and Jaromir Jagr (0.81):
The Penguins are still driven by Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Letang and Phil Kessel, a quartet of older stars who haven't shown the slightest hint of decline. But an emerging star like Guentzel provides a strong complementary piece to the team's current Stanley Cup chase, and at 24 years old, a bridge between generations.
Not bad for an undersized forward from Nebraska-Omaha, huh?
MORE PENGUINS
• PK thriving: While they traded one of their top penalty killers in Carl Hagelin, the Penguins are still crushing it on the PK. Pittsburgh has killed 83.6% of penalties in 2018-19, which is the sixth-best rate among all teams and a major improvement upon their performance during the 2017-18 season (80%, 17th among NHL teams). The Pens' penalty killers might be better rested, considering that they're spending less time short-handed this season (7.2 penalty minutes per game, tied for third-lowest in the league) than last year (9.6 per game, eighth-highest). It also can't hurt that Sullivan is starting to use defensively responsible scoring threats--including Crosby-- on the PK. With Crosby on the ice, the Penguins have generated 22.7% of total shots and 25% of scoring chances on the penalty kill. Among Penguins who have logged double-digit minutes on the PK, Crosby has the best shot share and the second-highest rate of scoring chances (his frequent wing man, Guentzel, leads at 30%).
• Brassard scuffling: I defended Derick Brassard at the beginning of the 2018-19 season, believing that his strong performance in Ottawa would carry over to Pittsburgh once he was fully healthy and acclimated to the Penguins' system. Well, Brassard has now played more than half a year of regular-season games here, and he hasn't looked anything like the high-caliber third-line center that the Penguins thought they were getting. During the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons, the Senators generated 6.9% more even-strength shot attempts when Brassard was on the ice compared to when he wasn't skating. In Pittsburgh, he has actually been a major drag on the Penguins' puck possession stats. Over the past two years, the Penguins have generated 5.5% fewer shot attempts with Brassard on the ice compared to when he's on the bench. Twenty-nine players have suited up for at least 20 games with the Penguins during the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, and Brassard has the sixth-worst relative shot percentage among that group. Only Tom Kuhnhackl (-9.6% fewer even-strength shots generated when he's on the ice), Matt Cullen (-9.3%), Carter Rowney (-6.4%), Jack Johnson (-6.3%) and Riley Sheahan (-6.2%) have fared worse.
STEELERS
• Big Ben in 5K: Ben Roethlisberger finished 2018 with a career-high and NFL-best 5,129 passing yards, becoming just the seventh QB in history to surpass 5,000 yards in a single season. The other QBs to top 5,000 passing yards are Peyton Manning (5,477 in 2013), Drew Brees (5,476 in 2011), Tom Brady (5,235 in 2011), Brees (5,208 in 2016), Brees (5,177 in 2012), Brees (5,162 in 2013), Patrick Mahomes (5,097 in 2018), Dan Marino (5,084 in 1984), Brees (5,069 in 2008) and Matthew Stafford (5,038 in 2011). That list hammers home just how pass-happy that the NFL is today compared to, say, when Marino played. Teams threw the ball an average of 34.5 times per game for 238 yards in 2018, up from around 30 pass attempts and around 200 yards per game during Marino's heyday. While Roethlisberger's raw passing yardage total looks highly impressive, his 2018 season was right in line with his career totals on a per-pass basis. He just threw the ball far more often. According to Pro Football Reference, Roethlisberger's yard per pass attempt total was 8% above the NFL average this season (it's 14% above average for his career), his completion percentage was 12% above average (10% above average for his career), his interception rate was exactly average (so is his career mark), and his passer rating was 8% above average (10% above average for his career). Roethlisberger's 2018 adjusted passer rating is the lowest among QBs to reach the 5,000 yard mark. Marino's '84 season leads at pack, at 41% above average.
• Big Ben and INTs: Roethlisberger also achieved a much less glorious milestone in 2018 by leading the NFL in interceptions thrown (16). His 2018 INT total tied 2015 for the second-highest single-season total of his career (he threw 23 picks back in 2006). Roethlisberger hasn't become more interception-prone on a per-pass basis--his 2.4% interception percentage this season is actually below his career average (2.7%)--but he attempted an NFL-high 675 passes in 2018. Even so, there's no question that his INTs have come in costly situations. Roethlisberger threw four INTs in the red zone, tying Case Keenum for the NFL "lead," and 13 of his picks occurred when the game's score was within seven points.
• Coughing it up: The Steelers finished the 2018 season with a -11 turnover differential, the fifth-worst mark among all NFL teams. The offense committed a turnover on 14.3% of its offensive drives (seventh-highest in the NFL), while the defense created a turnover on just 8.2% of drives (fifth-lowest). Pro Football Reference has turnover percentage stats dating back to 1998. Offensively, the Steelers' 2018 turnover percentage is the fifth-highest for the team over the past two decades. Only the 2006 (18.1% turnover percentage), 2002 (16.8%), 2011 (16.7%) and 2012 (15.6%) teams coughed it up more frequently. Defensively, the Steelers' 2018 turnover rate is the franchise's lowest dating back to at least '98. The 2011 (8.3%) club showed a similar lack of turnover prowess.
PIRATES
• The long-term option at third: The Pirates' third base situation in 2019 is in flux. Will Colin Moran, who disappointed at the plate and in the field as a rookie, take a step forward? Is Jung Ho Kang, Moran's projected platoon partner, still capable of obliterating pitches like he did prior to a two-year MLB exile? Do Kevin Kramer or Pablo Reyes steal some ABs? Regardless of how things play out, it looks like Ke'Bryan Hayes is poised to take the job by 2020. The 32nd overall pick in the 2015 draft, Hayes was recently rated as the second-best prospect in the Pirates' system by Baseball America. He has won back-to-back Minor League Gold Glove Awards at third base, and his bat continues to improve. At Low Class A West Virginia in 2016, Hayes' park-and-league-adjusted batting line was 4% better than average, according to Fangraphs. His offense was 9% above average at High Class A Bradenton in 2017, and 29% above average this past year at Double-A Altoona. The 6-1, 210 pound righty batter started to turn on pitches more often, raising his isolated power from .086 in 2017 to .151 in 2018 (isolated power is a measure of extra-base pop that's calculated by subtracting a player's batting average from his slugging percentage).
• Batted ball luck: If you're looking for a way to determine which hitters overachieved last season, and which hitters were particularly unlucky, MLB Statcast offers a clue. Statcast tracks the exit velocity, launch angle, and location of every ball put in play. Based on those variables, Statcast calculates an expected slugging percentage for every hitter. If a player's expected slugging percentage is higher than his actual slugging percentage, chances are he was unlucky and he might perform better next year. If a player's expected slugging percentage is lower than his actual rate, he likely enjoyed some batted ball luck and might not fare as well moving forward. Adam Frazier had a huge power spike in 2018, but Statcast is skeptical that he can keep it up next year. His expected slugging percentage (.393) was 63 points lower than his actual slugging percentage (.456). On the flip side, Moran made harder contact than his slugging percentage would suggest (.430 expected slugging percentage, .407 actual).
• Marte bounces back: Left fielder Starling Marte endured a wretched 2017 season, serving an 80-game PED suspension and then turning in his worst offensive performance in the majors--by far. Marte's On-Base Plus Slugging percentage (OPS), adjusted for park factors and the league-wide run-scoring environment, was 11% below the overall MLB average in 2017. This past year, though, he rebounded by posting an adjusted OPS that was 14% above average (his career adjusted OPS is also 14% above average). What changed? In '17, Marte was lousy against breaking and offspeed pitches. He had a .143 slugging percentage against offspeed stuff (changeups and splitters), and a .364 slugging percentage on breaking pitches (curveballs and sliders), according to MLB Statcast. This past year, Marte slugged .438 versus offspeed stuff and .468 against breaking balls. You won't find Marte's offensive approach featured on any Tom Emanski instructional videos, but his swing-at-everything philosophy works as long as he's making hard contact and putting his speed to good use.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Shifting Successfully: MLB commissioner Rob Manfred is exploring the possibility of limiting defensive shifts, perhaps in an attempt to boost offense after teams scored an average of 4.45 runs per game last season (down from 4.65 per game in 2017) and batted .248--the lowest league-wide mark since 1969. But there's a reason that people who place a premium on strategy, pitching and defense don't want to ban shifts: they're really effective. Teams shifted a total of 34,783 times in 2018, according to Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), up from 26,705 in 2017 and light years ahead of the 2,463 shifts recorded back in 2010 (the first year that BIS began tracking them). Teams saved an average of 1.71 runs per 100 shifts deployed, which was an improvement over the 1.3 runs saved per 100 shifts in 2017 and is the highest rate recorded by BIS since 2010. Sorry, A.J. Burnett and Jake Arrieta, but those shifts are helping pitchers much more than they're hurting them.
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