Stats 'N' At: AB in his 30s, Guentzel, Musgrove taken at Highmark Stadium (Penguins)

Antonio Brown, Joe Musgrove, Jake Guentzel - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

Welcome to Stats ‘N’ At, a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.

The coming season was supposed to be the one in which Antonio Brown took ownership of the Steelers' receiving record book, surpassing Hines Ward in career yardage and touchdowns while continuing to forge a Jerry Rice-like path to all-time greatness. Instead, Brown's 185-yard, two touchdown tour de force Dec. 23 in New Orleans might go down as his last act in black and gold.

Regardless of whether the Steelers try to overcome the miles of scorched earth created between the franchise and the legend-in-the-making, or whether they try to trade him for future picks and/or players, there's one fundamental question that every NFL front office must answer: Just what can we expect from AB over the next few years?

In this case, I don't mean in the sense of Will he show up for work? or What's he going to tweet next? (although both are fair questions at this point), but in the sense of just how well we can expect Brown to play. Through his age-30 season, Brown has has performed like an inner-circle Hall of Famer. But he's at an age where it's not uncommon for receivers to show signs of decline.

During the next three years that he's under contract, should we expect AB to remain a perennial Pro Bowler, or should we expect him to start to fade?

Before we delve into Brown's future, let's take a minute to appreciate how dominant he has been through his first nine seasons. The former sixth-round pick from Central Michigan has the fourth-most receiving yards all-time (11,207) through his age-30 season, trailing only Randy Moss (12,193), Calvin Johnson (11,619) and Larry Fitzgerald (11,367). He's second through age 30 in receptions (837, behind Fitzgerald's 846), third in receiving yards per game (86.2, trailing Julio Jones at 96.7 and Lance Alworth at 86.3). His 74 receiving TDs trail only Moss (124), Jerry Rice (103), Fitzgerald (87), Johnson (83), Alworth (81), Art Powell (81), Terrell Owens (81) and Mark Clayton (78) through 30. Brown already has more receptions than every Steeler aside from Ward (1,000), and it's the same for receiving yards (Ward had 12,083) and TDs (85). You can cast Brown's image in bronze right now. The only question is whether he'll be considered one of the best ever, or the best ever--period.

But, impressive as those credentials are, the Steelers and potential trading partners have to consider what the 2019-21 seasons will look like for AB--and not pay (in picks, players, and patience) for past performance. To get a sense of how Brown might age, let's take a look at his most comparable players on Pro Football Reference. The player comps are based on production (adjusted for different offensive eras) and age. Through Brown's first nine years, his most similar players include Moss, Owens, Alworth, Reggie WayneRod SmithRoddy WhitePaul Warfield, Bob Hayes, and Wes Welker. Let's take a look at how these receivers--including five Hall of Famers--performed during their age 31-33 seasons using a stat called Approximate Value (AV).

AV is a Pro Football Reference metric that attempts to make an apples-to-apples comparison of a player's value, across positions on the field and across different eras. It's an easier way of comparing receivers who have played in a pass-happy era, like Brown, and those who played in a time where three yards and a cloud of dust was the norm. To give you a sense of AV, the scale ranges from 0 (least valuable) to about 25 (max value) in a given season. The leaders of the pack in AV this past year included Tyreek Hill (18), Michael Thomas (17), Julio Jones (14), Robert Woods (13) and Brandin Cooks (13). Brown ranked 14th this past year, with 10 AV. Brown has averaged about 12.5 AV per season during his years as a starter (excluding his seldom-used rookie season), and about 0.8 AV per game.

So, how did AB's career comps age?

At age 31, Brown's similar receivers played an average of 14.6 games, had 11.7 AV, and 0.8 AV per game. Essentially, they performed about as well as Brown has to this point in his career, while missing a game (presumably not of their own choosing). At age 32, his comps played 12.9 games, had 7.6 AV, and 0.59 AV per game. That's about as productive as Stefon Diggs, Alshon Jeffery, and Jarvis Landry were in 2018. At age 33, two of Brown's comps didn't play (Alworth, who retired, and Warfield, who joined the upstart and soon defunct World Football League), and those that did averaged 13.6 games, 7 AV and 0.52 AV per game. Even among this highly impressive cohort of receivers, you do see decline both in availability and production.

Did Brown already start to slip a bit in 2018? Perhaps you could make that case, considering that he ranked tenth in receiving yards per game (86.5) and 14th in AV, and his 61.9% catch rate ranked 139th among wideouts. Of course, you could also make the case that his numbers were down because he drew more double teams (opening up the field for breakout star JuJu Smith-Schuster), and because Ben Roethlisberger's throws weren't always on point. Perhaps Brown is the kind of physical marvel who defies normal aging patterns and remains hyper-productive well into his 30s. If history is any guide, though, we should expect some decline to a level that's borderline Pro Bowl-caliber. That's still highly valuable. But, between AB's age and the leverage-sapping baggage between him and the Steelers, I'd be surprised if the team is able to land a high first-round pick for his services.

MORE STEELERS

Sackmaster: The Steelers have a mixed track record recently when it comes to developing first-round outside linebackers (see outright bust Jarvis Jones and the adequate-if-unspectacular Bud Dupree), but 2017 pick T.J. Watt looks like a hit. Watt tied for seventh among all defenders this past season in sacks (13), and his 20 quarterback take-downs during the first two years of his career is the highest in franchise history (sacks became an official stat in 1982). Watt blew past the likes of LaMarr Woodley (15.5 in 2007-08), Keith Willis (15 in 1982-83), Kendrell Bell (13 in 2001-02), Joey Porter (12.5 in 1999-2000) and Chad Brown (11.5 in 1993-94), according to Pro Football Reference. Watt's sack total during his first two seasons ranks just outside the top 20 among all NFL players dating back to the early '80s.

Bringing back Sensabaugh: Aside from Joe Haden and Mike Hilton the Steelers' 2019 cornerback depth chart is a mess. One decision that the club will have to make, on top of figuring out if Artie Burns can be salvaged, is whether to bring back free agent Coty Sensabaugh. The 30-year-old became a starter by default after Burns kept getting torched, but he didn't embarrass himself in an expanded role. Opposing teams targeted Sensabaugh often (4.9 times per game, according to the Player Profiler website, which was 18th-highest among corners), and he allowed catches at a higher rate than most (63.3%, which was 51st at the position). Those catches rarely did serious damage, though. Sensabaugh allowed 10.6 yards per reception (16th-best among corners) and had an 86 passer rating when quarterbacks targeted him (31st). Unless Pittsburgh goes big-game hunting for a cornerback, and unless some other team offers him stupid money, Sensabaugh could return as a solid depth piece.

PENGUINS

Hat tricks galore: Winger Jake Guentzel has taken his goal-scoring prowess to a new level in 2018-19, averaging 0.51 per game after sitting at 0.27 last season. And when the Penguins' new $30 million man scores, he tends to do it in bunches. Guentzel has four hat tricks since the start of the 2016-17 season (regular season and playoffs included), which is tied for the third-most in the game over that time frame. Patrik Laine and Alex Ovechkin both have seven hat tricks since 2016-17, while, Guentzel, Filip ForsbergConnor McDavidDavid Pastrnak and John Tavares have four apiece. Impressive as Guentzel's scoring bursts have been, he has work to do to climb the Penguins' all-time hat trick list. Mario Lemieux had a brain-melting 40 hat tricks during his career--second most ever behind Wayne Gretzky's 50. Sidney Crosby (14), Evgeni Malkin (14), Kevin Stevens (11), Jaromir Jagr (10), Alex Kovalev (8), Rick Kehoe (8), Rob Brown (7), Mike Bullard (6) and Martin Straka (5) are among the franchise's serial hat trick scorers.

Better together: We're a long way from being able to fully evaluate this past December's Daniel Sprong-for-Marcus Pettersson deal, but the Penguins' new defenseman appears to be having a positive effect on his line partner, Jack Johnson. When Johnson and Pettersson are on the ice together, the Penguins generate 50.1% of total shots, 54.7% of scoring chances, 55.7% of high-danger scoring chances (those with the highest odds of becoming a goal), and 63.2% of goals scored. When Johnson is paired with another defenseman, the Penguins generate 44.5% of shots, 46.6% of scoring chances, 45% of high-danger scoring chances and 32.6% of goals. Johnson has publicly stated how much he benefits from Pettersson's play, and the numbers back it up. Since he was teamed with the Swede--and placed in a third-pairing role that better suits his skill set--Johnson has looked like a competent defender rather than a big-ticket free agent mistake.

• Simon solidifying status: The Penguins have a penchant for developing low-profile wingers into quality, low-cost NHL contributors who help the team avoid salary cap-related woes. Count Dominik Simon among that group, as the former fifth-round pick in the 2015 draft has emerged as a responsible two-way player who tilts the ice in Pittsburgh's favor. With Simon on the ice this year, the Penguins are taking 55.3% of total shots (second-best on the team behind Sidney Crosby), generating 59.8% of scoring chances (tops on the team) and scoring 59.1% of goals (seventh-best). The Penguins allow just 27.8 shots per 60 minutes with Simon skating, which places just behind Crosby for the club's lowest mark, and his 2.8 takeways per 60 minutes of ice time are the second most on the team. There's a reason why coach Mike Sullivan has given Simon more ice time as of late (12:34 per game through November, and 14:10 since the start of December).

PIRATES

• Work to do behind the dish: The Pirates' catching duo of Francisco Cervelli and Elias Diaz was highly productive in 2018, and the club will once again have an advantage over most teams if they enter 2019 with two starting-quality backstops. But while Cervelli (whose park-adjusted OPS was 23% above the overall MLB average last year) and Diaz (16% above average) raked, they both could stand to improve behind the plate. Baseball Prospectus tracks a stat called Adjusted Catcher Fielding Runs Above Average (FRAA), which measures a backstop's ability to "frame" pitches (getting extra strikes on borderline ball-strike calls), control the running game, and block pitches. Diaz ranked 96th among catchers in FRAA, costing his team about three runs compared to an average player at his position, while Cervelli ranked 104th with -6.5 FRAA. Both struggled in terms of framing pitches (-1.2 runs for Diaz and -5.8 for Cervelli) and blocking balls (-2 for Diaz, -1.2 for Crevelli), but had positive marks in the running game (+0.1 for Diaz and +0.6 for Cervelli). Even after a banner 2018 season, there's room for improvement.

• Musgrove's quality strikes: In his superb feature on Joe Musgrove, John Perrotto notes that the Pirates righty has a tendency to fill the strike zone and challenge opponents to take their best shot. Last season, Musgrove threw 55.7% of his pitches within the strike zone, according to MLB Statcast, which was way above the 48.6% MLB average. He succeeded with that aggressive approach by showing quality command. Musgrove threw 33.4% of his pitches to the edge of the strike zone, well north of the 30.5% big league average. Pitches that hug the corners of the zone are less likely to be scorched by batters, which is partially how Musgrove limited opponents to an 86.8 mph exit velocity on his pitches (better than the 87.3 mph average). It's one thing to throw strikes, but it's another thing entirely to throw quality strikes. Musgrove does both.

• Can Reyes earn a roster spot? With Josh Harrison set to depart via free agency, the Pirates are searching for a player who can hold down multiple defensive spots while not getting the bat knocked out of his hands. Pablo Reyes could be the man for the job. The 25-year-old played right field, left field, second base and third base for the Pirates during a late-season call-up, and he also dabbled at shortstop and in center field while at Triple-A Indianapolis. While hardly imposing at a listed 5-foot-8 and 175 pounds, Reyes has more pop than you'd expect. He hit eight home runs and slugged .435 at Triple-A, with an overall batting line that was 18% above average once adjusted for park factors and the league-wide scoring environment. With the Pirates, Reyes hit three homers and slugged .483 in a small sample size (63 plate appearances). According to MLB Statcast, Reyes had an average exit velocity of 90.3 mph and also showed solid plate discipline (he swung at 21.2% of pitches thrown outside of the zone, below the 28.2% MLB average). Considering his positional versatility and decent power, Reyes could break camp with the Pirates in 2019.

THE NATIONAL TREND

• Disappearing steals: In today's low-contact, high-powered MLB, steals are increasingly rare. Teams stole an average of 0.51 bags per game in 2018, which was the lowest full-season mark since 1972 (0.49 per game). It's not that teams have gotten worse at stealing bases--their 72% success rate last year was in line with the marks posted in recent years--it's just that there are fewer opportunities to swipe a bag overall. And, teams are giving the green light less often when they do have a chance, perhaps not wanting to take the bat out of the hands of a slugger at the plate. Back in 2008, there were a total of 69,975 stolen base opportunities across the league (meaning plate appearances where a runner was on first or second base with the next bag open). Teams attempted a steal on about 5.5% of those opportunities. Last year, there were just 66,244 stolen base opportunities, and teams attempted a steal about 5.2% of the time. Somewhere, Omar Moreno and Tony Womack weep.

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