The Penguins' search for a quality third-line center over the past year has been an expensive, exasperating quest.
Jim Rutherford surrendered a first-round pick, a quality goaltending prospect in Filip Gustavsson, and Ian Cole, among other assets, to acquire Derick Brassard last February. Less than a year later, Brassard -- who never took to a third-line role or provided an offensive spark, and didn't appear to appreciate Mike Sullivan's frequent line-shuffling -- is a former Penguin, having been shipped to the Panthers (along with Riley Sheahan, a 2019 second-round pick and two 2019 fourth-rounders) in exchange for forwards Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann.
After surrendering so much draft pick and prospect capital, have the Penguins finally managed to find bottom-line center options who can fit their scheme and can slot in behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin?
At the very least, they added some roster flexibility, became younger, and gained some longer-term contractual control by picking up the 26-year-old Bjugstad (signed through the 2020-21 season with an annual cap hit of $4.1 million) and the 22-year-old McCann (signed for $1.25 million per year through 2019-20, at which point he can become a restricted free agent). Bjugstad has shown promise offensively during his career, and McCann has flashed the ability to shut down opponents defensively. But both players, who were having down seasons for an also-ran Florida team, will need to pick up their play to make it all worthwhile for Rutherford and the Penguins.
Let's start with Bjugstad, the centerpiece of the deal for Pittsburgh.
The 19th overall pick in the 2010 draft, Bjugstad showed immediate scoring touch upon reaching the NHL full-time in 2013-14. He averaged 0.5 points per game in '13-14, 0.6 in 2014-15 and 0.51 in 2015-16, while posting quality possession stats. During that three-year stretch, the Panthers generated about 2% more scoring chances and 3% more high-danger scoring chances (shots that are most likely to become goals based on shot location, shot type and odd-man rush situations) with Bjugstad on the ice in five-on-five situations compared to when he wasn't skating. They also generated about three extra shots per 60 minutes with Bjugstad than without him. While he wasn't a defensive standout, he also wasn't a major drag on Florida's goal prevention (they allowed about 1.5 more shots per 60 minutes with Bjugstad skating than without him).
The next year, the bottom fell out. Limited to 54 games because of injury, Bjugstad averaged just 0.26 points per contest during the 2016-17 season. With Bjugstad on the ice, Florida created 8% fewer scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances. They generated 4.5 fewer shots per 60 minutes with him skating, and allowed 6.4 more shots per 60 minutes. 2017-18, by contrast, was Bjugstad's career year. Playing plenty of right wing and appearing in all 82 games, he bumped his point production back up to 0.6 per game. He boosted Florida's scoring and high-danger scoring chances by more than 6%, increased their shot total by 3.2 per 60 minutes, and proved to be at least a neutral defender (they allowed 0.2 more shots per 60 minutes with him on the ice). He posted, by far, his best mark in Relative Corsi For Percentage, which compares the percentage of total shots that a team generates with a player on the ice compared to when he's on the bench. Zero is neutral, while a negative number means that a player decreases his team's shot share and a positive number means he boosts his team's shot output:
Instead of building upon that quality season, Bjugstad has regressed somewhat in 2018-19. He's scoring 0.38 points per game, while lowering his teams' scoring chances by about 3% and modestly increasing their high-danger chances (+0.9%). Bjugstad has increased his teams' shot total by just 0.2 per 60 minutes, while allowing opponents to take 1.5 more shots per 60 when he's skating.
So, what does Bjugstad have to do to get back to his 2017-18 form?
It wouldn't hurt for the 6-foot-6, 215 pound righty shot to plant himself in front of the net more often, and unleash more shots. After the trade, Rutherford noted that Bjugstad is strong down low, and he's right: During his NHL career, Bjugstad has taken about 33% of his total shots from the area that is directly in front of the crease and between the faceoff circles (the average is about 26%, according to the IcyData website). He has scored 50% of his goals from that net-front spot, above the 42% NHL average. But this year, Bjugstad has taken just 26% of his shots from directly in front of the net. He's also averaging just 7.5 shots per 60 minutes of ice time, which is well below his 10.6 rate during his strong 2017-18 campaign. It seems like opponents might be trying to force him into taking more shots from outside of his favorite zone, and Bjugstad isn't as comfortable (or productive) doing so. If you see him towering over opposing goalies in the future, consider it a positive sign.
While Bjugstad makes his money by generating offense, McCann's greatest value is as a defensive pest.
The former first-round pick of the Vancouver Canucks (24th overall in 2014) is averaging 0.38 points per game this season (close to his 0.33 career average). Upon arriving in Florida in 2016-17, McCann proved, to steal a favorite phrase of Sullivan, to be hard to play against. During the '16-'17 and 2017-18 seasons, the Panthers allowed about 2.5 fewer shots per 60 minutes with McCann skating than without him. They also allowed about two fewer scoring chances per 60 minutes, and two fewer high-danger chances. He wasn't a strong offensive player during that two-year stretch (Florida generated about three fewer scoring chances per 60 minutes with him on the ice), but he embraced a more defensive-minded role and excelled at it.
Florida increased McCann's penalty-killing responsibility this season (he averaged about a minute of PK time with the Panthers this year, up from 0:36 in 2017-18), but his five-on-five defense has tailed off. McCann's teams are allowing 4.5 more shots per 60 minutes when he's skating this year in five-on-five play than without him, as well as 1.3 more scoring chances and 0.7 more high-danger chances. While his club scored about 5.5% more goals when he skated during 2016-17 and 2017-18, they're giving up 1.3% more goals with him on the ice in 2018-19. He hasn't offset that decline with better offense, either (his teams are generating 2.3 fewer scoring chances per 60 minutes with McCann on the ice, and taking 2.1 fewer shots per 60 minutes).
It's impossible to forget the chain of roster moves that led to the Bjugstad and McCann deal. The Penguins invested heavily in Brassard becoming the best non-Crosby and Malkin center in Pittsburgh since Jordan Staal, and the trade blew up. But Rutherford managing to turn Brassard and Sheahan--both on expiring contracts, and both posting career-worst scoring and puck possession stats--and some non-first round draft selections into a half-point per game player with center and wing experience in Bjugstad and a speedy, defensive-minded forward in McCann should be considered a solid move. With the emergence of Teddy Blueger and with Bjugstad performing well at wing in the past, it's possible that Sullivan mixes and matches at the bottom-six center spots with Bjugstad, Blueger, Matt Cullen and McCann.
You can't undo the original mistake of acquiring Brassard, which many people (myself included) championed at the time. But you can recognize the mistake, and pivot. Rutherford has proven capable of making hard decisions to improve his roster, ego or past history be damned. If Bjugstad and McCann return to form, his latest move should better position the Penguins in 2018-19 and beyond.
MORE PENGUINS
• Converting high-danger chances: The 2018-19 Penguins have hardly been a dominant puck possession team. Pittsburgh has generated just 49.5% of total shots taken during games, which ranks 18th among NHL teams and is down considerably from last year's rate of 51.2% of total shots taken (10th among teams). But what the Penguins lack in quantity, they make up for in quality. They have generated the third-most high-danger scoring chances this season, and they have converted those high-danger chances into goals 14.9% of the time. That's also third-best in the NHL, ranking behind only Florida (15.3%) and Tampa Bay (15%). The Penguins could stand to control the puck more often, but they're not wasting the opportunities that they do receive.
• Letang's scoring prowess: Kris Letang recently netted his 108th career goal, tying him with Paul Coffey for the all-time Penguins record for a defenseman. Letang himself has been quick to mention that it took him 730 games to reach that mark, compared to 331 for Coffey, but Letang is selling his accomplishments short. When you consider that he has played most of his career in a low-scoring environment, Letang is one of the most offensively gifted defensemen that we have seen during the Modern Era (1967-68 to the present). Hockey Reference keeps track of a stat called Adjusted Points, which takes a player's raw points total and scales it to account for the differences in goal-scoring environments across different hockey eras. It's a way of making an apples-to-apples comparison between players who suited up in far different scoring environments. Letang has averaged 0.66 points per game during his career. But his adjusted points per game total is 0.78, which is the eighth-highest rate among Modern Era defensemen who played in at least 300 games. On a per-game basis, Letang ranks behind only Bobby Orr (1.4 adjusted points per game), Paul Coffey (0.96), Erik Karlsson (0.95), Ray Bourque (0.88), Brian Leetch (0.86), Al MacInnis (0.85) and Denis Potvin (0.83).
PIRATES
• A platoon at third...for now: The Pirates seemingly plan on entering the 2019 season with a platoon at third base. Colin Moran will take on righties, and Jung Ho Kang will face off versus left-handers. The arrangement makes some sense, as Moran has performed decently against right-handed pitching (with a park and league-adjusted On-Base-Plus Slugging Percentage that's 8% above the overall MLB average in 428 plate appearances) but he has been a liability against fellow lefties in a small sample (an adjuted OPS that's 42% below average in 74 plate appearances). Kang could bring much-needed power, but we really have no idea how good he is after he missed nearly two full MLB seasons. Giving him everyday playing time right away would be a big leap of faith. The longer-term question is, can Moran keep his grip on the lion's share of playing time at third? Kang--at least, the version of Kang we saw previously--was actually better against right-handed pitching (an adjusted OPS that was 35% above average in 664 plate appearances) than against lefties (7% above average in 179 plate appearances). If Kang displays the kind of bat speed and pop that he did the first time around in Pittsburgh, Moran could be relegated to a pinch-hitter and spot-starter.
• Speed isn't everything: If you squint really hard, you can see a useful MLB pitcher in the newly-signed Brandon Maurer. He throws gas, averaging 96 mph with his fastball last season, and he has struck out about a batter per inning over the past three seasons. But Maurer has one of the biggest splits in the majors between his Fielding-Independent ERA (FIP, an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA should be based on the factors that do the best job of predicting success: strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed) and his actual ERA. Maurer's career FIP (4.13) suggests he's a decent signing. His actual ERA (5.36) suggests he's a tomato can. One reason for the disparity is that Maurer's fastball, while swift, lacks precision and gets hammered. Last season, Maurer threw his fastball for a strike just over 60% of the time--below the 64-65% MLB average. And when batters swung, they performed like Barry Bonds at his peak (opponents slugged .792 off Maurer's four-seam fastball, according to MLB Statcast). Maurer's heater is fast coming in, but it's just as fast on the return.
• Newman's bat: Neal Huntington recently compared Kevin Newman to a young Jordy Mercer, and noted that the rookie shortstop was absolutely gassed during his first exposure to MLB games last season. It showed: Newman's park and league-adjusted On-Base-Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS+) was 33, meaning that he was 67% worse offensively than the average MLB player. That was the 11th-worst OPS+ among all big leaguers who had at least 75 plate appearances last season. According to MLB Statcast, Newman's average exit velocity on balls put in play was just 83.5 mph--far below the 87.3 mph average. One-hundred lousy plate appearances is hardly enough to write off a player, and Newman was productive at Triple-A Indianapolis last season (.302 batting average/.350 on-base percentage/.407 slugging percentage). But players with his kind of offensive profile--contact-oriented, limited power--have to prove that they won't get the bat knocked out of their hands at the highest level.
STEELERS
• An expanded role for the Vanimal? With Antonio Brown possibly on the trade block and Jesse James set to test free agency, tight end Vance McDonald could become a more prominent target for Ben Roethlisberger in 2019. And, after a 2018 campaign during which he stayed mostly healthy and performed like a poor man's Rob Gronkowski, McDonald looks up to the job. McDonald hauled in 69.4% of passes thrown his way--up considerably from his 54.9% career catch rate entering last year--while maintaining an impressive 12.2 yards per reception. He ranked seventh in yards per reception among tight ends who caught at least 35 balls last season, trailing only George Kittle (15.7 yards per reception), Gronkowski (14.5), Jared Cook (13.2), Travis Kelce (13), Chris Herndon (12.9) and Evan Engram (12.8). He wasn't just a glorified wideout, either, placing 12th among tight ends in run blocking according to Pro Football Focus' player grade rating system. McDonald's durability has been a major issue throughout his career, outside of 2018, but his talent is undeniable.
• Cowboy up: Regardless of whether Brown's still in town, the Steelers need far more out of James Washington during his second NFL season. The second-round pick, who shattered receiving records at Oklahoma State and elicited comparisons to JuJu Smith-Schuster for his physicality and ability to make contested catches, averaged just 15.5 receiving yards per game as a rookie. Over the past 26 years (since Pro-Football Reference began tracking receiving targets), there have been 184 rookie wide receivers drafted in the top two rounds who were targeted at least 15 times. Washington had the 28th-lowest receiving yards per game total, and he just avoided the bottom 15 with a late season uptick. His 42.1% catch rate was 24th-worst among rookie receivers drafted in the top two rounds. Washington shouldn't be labeled a bust after one year--even some of the Steelers' best wide outs had quiet rookie years--and he did pick up his performance at least modestly during the second half (37% catch rate, 9.4 yards per reception and 8.3 yards per game during his first eight games, 47% catch rate, 16.8 yards per reception and 25.2 yards per game after). But draft status be damned, he needs a strong start to avoid getting buried on the depth chart.
• A pass defense stretched thin: The 2018 Steelers did a pretty solid job of containing opponents' top receivers. But in terms of shutting down teams' depth receiving options, Pittsburgh got shredded. According to Pro Football Outsiders, the Steelers ranked tenth among NFL teams by allowing 71.1 receiving yards per game to opponents' top wide receivers. They ranked 19th against number two wideouts (48.9 yards per game), 25th versus other wide receivers (56.1) and 31st against tight ends (56.9). They ranked a midding 15th against running backs (35.7). It's painfully clear that this team needs better depth at cornerback and linebackers who aren't a liability when dropping into coverage.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Swann's up next: New England Patriots wide receiver Julian Edelman took home Super Bowl MVP honors by hauling in ten catches for 141 yards. Edelman now has 337 career receiving yards in the Super Bowl, which ranks third all-time behind Steelers legend Lynn Swann (364) and Jerry Rice (589). As you might expect from a franchise that practically has a monopoly on Super Bowl appearances, the Patriots have four other receivers who rank in the top ten in yardage during the big game: Deion Branch (321, fifth on the list), tight end Rob Gronkowski (297, sixth), Danny Amendola (278, seventh) and Wes Welker (247, tenth). One other Steeler cracks the top ten: John Stallworth, who ranks eighth with 268 yards.
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