Prospects.
Every team in the major leagues has them, but for teams like the Pirates, who are projected to have the second-lowest payroll in the major leagues this season, prospects are vital because the team needs production from cost-controlled young players.
In fact, when Pirates management is pressed on how they spend the revenue-sharing money they receive from Major League Baseball, its first answer is always player development and scouting.
Seemingly every publication, from Baseball America to Ladies Home Journal, ranks prospects these days. So, why shouldn’t DKPittsburghSports.com join the party?
Here are my top 10 Pirates’ prospect, a list compiled following consultations with scouts, executives and media members. I have also included evaluations from scouts from other organizations — under the condition of anonymity — on each of the 10 players.
Be advised that while many analysts rank prospects strictly on raw ability, I like to also factor in how close they are to playing in the major leagues.
1. Ke’Bryan Hayes
The Pirates selected Hayes as their minor league player of the year after he batted .293/.375/.444 with seven home runs and 12 stolen bases in 117 games for Double-A Altoona last season. The 21-year-old third baseman also shined at the All-Star Futures Game in July, hitting a home run at Nationals Park in Washington.
Hayes was fourth in the Eastern League with 31 doubles and his slugging percentage (.383) was much better on the road than at spacious PNG Field (.307). Baseball America ranked him as the No. 4 prospect in the EL. Many scouts say Hayes is the premier defensive third baseman in the entire minor leagues.
The son of former Pirates third baseman Charlie Hayes, who played in the major leagues for 14 seasons, was a supplemental first-round pick in 2015 from Concordia Lutheran High School in Tomball, Texas.
Scout’s take: “His dad had a solid career, but I think the kid will be better. He is starting to add strength and it’s going to start manifesting itself in better power numbers as he gets older. He is starting to get comfortable turning on pitches instead of concentrating just on making contact. He is a helluva defensive third base with a great arm and outstanding range. He’s a Gold Glove-caliber defender. He has a chance to be a star, not necessarily a Hall of Famer, but a star.”
The future: Hayes will likely spend the upcoming season at Triple-A Indianapolis then challenge Colin Moran and/or Jung Ho Kang for the starting third baseman's job in 2020.
2. Mitch Keller
Keller entered last season as the Pirates’ consensus top prospect and the right-hander went 9-2 with a 2.72 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP in 14 starts for Altoona along with 76 strikeouts in 86 innings. However, the 22-year-old struggled following a promotion to Indianapolis, compiling a 3-2 record, 4.82 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 10 starts, though he struck out 57 in 52 1/3 innings.
Keller did go 3-0 with a 2.20 ERA in his last five starts. Baseball America ranked him as the No. 6 prospect in the Eastern League and the No. 11 prospect in the International League.
The Pirates selected Keller in the second round of the 2015 draft from Xavier High School in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.
Scout’s take: “He’s one of the hardest throwers you’ll find, sitting at 94-95 with the fastball and touching 98, and he does it with a nice, easy motion that makes it seem like he’s throwing about 105. His curveball has the potential to be a good pitch, but he needs to consistently throw it in the strike zone. Like a lot of young pitchers, he needs a lot of work on his changeup. He seemed hesitant to throw the curve and change when he got to Triple-A, but he’s going to need all three pitches to succeed at the highest level. If he can do that, then he’s a top-of-the-rotation starter. He’s got to trust his stuff.”
The future: Keller is likely to make his major-league debut at some point this season.
3. Oneil Cruz
The 20-year-old shortstop’s first full season in the organization in 2018 was a success. The 6-foot-6, 175-pound left-handed hitter batted .286/.343/.488 in 103 games with low-A West Virginia (Charleston), though he committed 33 errors.
Cruz finished fifth in the South Atlantic League batting race and Baseball America ranked Cruz as the No. 4 prospect in the Sally League.
The Pirates acquired Cruz from the Dodgers on July 31, 2017 along with fellow minor-leaguer Angel German in a trade for Tony Watson.
Scout’s take: “He’s built more like a wide receiver or a small forward, but he has really good tools and a projectable body. He has a big swing with his long arms, which enables him to have above-average power but also leads to a lot of swing-and-miss. He also runs well, especially once he gets underway. The big question is whether he will stay at shortstop because of his size. I wouldn’t totally bet against it, but he has the arm strength and power bat to play third base or a corner outfield spot in the big leagues. He’s going to make an impact in the major leagues regardless of what position he plays.”
The future: Cruz will play at high Class A Bradenton this season. The Pirates usually move their prospects slowly through the farm system, so he may not see the major leagues until 2022.
4. Travis Swaggerty
The 21-year-old center fielder was taken in the first round with the 10th pick in last year’s draft from the University of South Alabama.
The left-handed hitter made his professional debut with short season West Virginia (Morgantown) and batted .129/.225/.226 with one home run and no stolen bases in 16 games but his performance improved following a promotion to Charleston as he hit .288/.365/.453 with four homers and nine steals in 36 games.
Baseball America ranked Swaggerty as the No. 2 prospect in the New York-Penn League. The 21-year-old native of Covington, La., posted a .296/.455/.526 line with 13 homers and nine steals in 57 games last year for South Alabama.
Scout’s take: “What really stands out about him is that he has all five tools --- hitting for average, hitting for power, speed, defense and arm. That gives him a chance to be a really good player at the major-league level, though I want to see him play a little more at a level higher than low-A ball before I say he’s going to be a star. He knows how to get on base and he’s a true leadoff hitter and a good defensive center fielder. That’s an intriguing combination.”
The future: Swaggerty will begin the year at Bradenton with an eye on an in-season promotion to Altoona. He may force the Pirates' hand into moving him quickly up the ladder and reach Pittsburgh sometime in 2021.
5. Calvin Mitchell
In his first full professional season, the 19-year-old hit .280/.344/.427 with 10 home runs in 119 games at Charleston last year. He was the Pirates’ second-round pick in 2017 from Rancho Bernardo High School in San Diego, which is also the alma mater of Trevor Williams.
The left-handed hitting Mitchell fared well against left-handed pitching with a robust .357/.413/.490 line in 110 plate appearances. Baseball America ranked Mitchell as the No. 11 prospect in the South Atlantic League.
Mitchell started 99 games in right field last season and 10 in left field, finishing with five errors and seven assists.
Scout’s take: “He is a pure hitter. He has a beautiful short and compact stroke and can really drive the ball to the pull side. He isn’t strong enough to hit the ball out of the park to the opposite field, but I think that will come as he gets older and develops man strength. He’s going to have to hit to have value, though. He’s barely adequate defensively and his arm is below average. If his power blossoms, he has a chance to be a difference maker at the big-league level.”
The future: Mitchell will spend this season with Bradenton and likely see the majors with Cruz in 2022.
6. Cole Tucker
The switch-hitting Tucker had a so-so year in his second season at Altoona in 2018. The 22-year-old shortstop batted .259/.333/.356 with five homers and 35 steals in 133 games, though he made just 14 errors.
However, Tucker then made a big impression in the Arizona Fall League by hitting .370/.442/.457 with six stolen bases in 95 plate appearances.
Tucker was the Pirates’ first-round draft pick in 2014 from Mountain Pointe High School in Phoenix.
Scout’s take: “He’s a real toolsy player. He can really run, has good range at shortstop and his arm has bounced back well from the shoulder surgery early in his career. The question is the bat. He has the potential to hit more home runs but has yet to figure out how to consistently drive the ball. He really improved his stock in the Fall League, though. As much as any player out there. I thought he was more of a utility player up until then, but I’m now convinced he’s going to be a big-league shortstop.”
The future: Tucker will spend this season at Indianapolis then challenge Erik Gonzalez and/or Kevin Newman for the starting shortstop job next year in spring training.
7. Kevin Kramer
The left-handed hitting Kramer struggled in his first taste of the big leagues after playing well at Indianapolis. The third baseman/second baseman hit just .135/.175/.135 with a whopping 20 strikeouts in just 40 plate appearances.
In the International League, though, the 25-year-old excelled as he batted .311/.365/.492 with 15 homers and 13 steals in 129 games. The Pirates chose Kramer in the second round of the 2015 draft from UCLA after taking shortstop Kevin Newman in the first round, setting up the possibility of a much-anticipated Seinfeld double play combination.
Kramer was second in the IL in batting average and doubles (35) and third in OPS (.856) while also being one of just two players with at least 15 homers and 10 steals. Baseball America ranked him as the No. 14 prospect in the league.
Scout’s take: “He keeps getting better and better each year and I think he has a little more upside than most players his age. For me, he’s going to be a second baseman in the major leagues. He’s OK at third and you can get by playing him at shortstop for a day or two here and there, but second base is his best position and I think his bat plays best there. He might never be a star, but I have a feeling he’s going to end up having a sneakily good career.”
The future: Blocked by Adam Frazier at second base, Kramer will go back to the Indianapolis to begin this season. However, the Pirates feel he will be ready if Frazier falters.
8. Kevin Newman
The middle infielder had a fine season at Indianapolis. The 25-year-old hit .302/.350/.407 with four home runs and 28 stolen bases in 109 games while committing nine errors at shortstop and second base.
Newman was second in the International League in steals, third in runs (74), fourth in batting and fifth in doubles (30). Baseball America ranked him as the IL’s No. 20 prospect.
However, Newman’s first time in the major leagues was close to a disaster as he batted .209/.247/.231 in 31 games, with no homers or steals. The Pirates’ first-round draft pick in 2015 from the University of Arizona also was charged with four errors in 182 2/3 innings.
Scout’s take: “I know a lot of scouts think his range isn’t quite good enough to play shortstop and project him as a second baseman in the big leagues, but I disagree. He has the arm to play shortstop and he makes up for what he lacks in range with good instincts and positioning. He’s not a great hitter but he’ll work deep counts and is a very good baserunner. For me, the jury is still out of if he can be a regular in the bigs but Tucker has definitely passed him on the organizational depth chart at shortstop.”
The future: Newman will compete with Gonzalez for the starting shortstop job during Grapefruit League play. If Newman loses out, he will head back to Indianapolis, where he will likely be used in more of a utility role because of the presence of Tucker.
9. Bryan Reynolds
The 23-year-old outfielder’s first season in the organization was interrupted by a broken hamate bone in his right hand in April. He played in 88 games for Altoona and hit .302/.381/.438 with seven homers and four stolen bases.
The Giants drafted the switch-hitter from Vanderbilt in the second round in 2016 then traded him to the Pirates with reliever Kyle Crick for Andrew McCutchen last winter. At Altoona, Reynolds started 43 games in center field, 42 in left and three in right.
Scout’s take: “He doesn’t overwhelm you when you watch him, but he does a lot of things fairly well. He has good gap power from both sides of the plate, and I think he’ll hit a few more homers as he gets more comfortable turning on pitches. He can play all three outfield positions and he’s OK in center, I like him a lot better on the corners. At worst, he’ll be a pretty good fourth outfielder.”
The future: Reynolds will spend this season at Indianapolis and could possibly be the starting left fielder in 2020 as Corey Dickerson becomes eligible for free agency in November.
10. Will Craig
Craig hit .248/.321/.448 with 20 home runs in 132 games for Altoona in 2018, two years after the Pirates drafted him in the first round from Wake Forest. The 23-year-old first baseman also finished with 102 RBIs, the second-highest total in the Curve’s 21-year history.
Craig followed that by making the all-Arizona Fall League team, batting .304/.378/.570 with six homers in 90 plate appearances.
Switched from third base to first base in 2017, Craig was charged with just eight errors in 2018.
Scout’s take: “He had a good combination of power and patience in college and he’s shown both in pro ball, but not at the same time. He hit for a lot more power last year, but also sold out more in the process by expanding his strike zone. If he can regain his plate discipline without losing any power, then he has a chance to be an impact hitter at the major-league level. He can’t run at all and he’s just OK defensively, so he’s going to have to hit to play in the big leagues.”
The future: He will likely play the full season at Indianapolis then be ready to challenge Josh Bell to be the starting first baseman next spring.
