Who, exactly, are the 2018-2019 Penguins? They're capable of toppling elite teams, and getting boat-raced by clubs buried in the standings. They're lethal on the power play -- for both teams. They're blessed with goaltending depth, unless the two-time Stanley Cup-winning netminder runs cold or gets banged up, or Casey DeSmith returns to earth. They are, much to the chagrin of coach Mike Sullivan, a team without a clear and consistent identity.
That identity crisis extends to the blue line, where the Penguins feature a Norris Trophy contender in Kris Letang, a stealth shutdown player in Brian Dumoulin ... and then what, exactly? There are some high-priced veterans and young talent with upside. But, outside of Letang and Dumoulin, the Penguins haven't received nearly enough from their defensemen this season. Which makes the imminent return -- and hopefully, return to form -- of two-way standout Justin Schultz a necessity, rather than a nice-to-have addition.
Sullivan has stressed he wants the Penguins to be a strong puck possession team. So far, they haven't been. The Penguins rank 19th among NHL teams this season in five-on-five Corsi For Percentage (49.1), which measures the share of total shots that a club generates. For comparison's sake, the Penguins ranked fifth in Corsi For during the 2017-18 campaign (52.3 percent). They're taking fewer shots (32 per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time, down from 34.1 last year) and allowing more opportunities for opponents to score (32.9 shots allowed per 60 minutes, up from 29.9 in 2017-18). On far too many nights, the Penguins are letting the other team control the puck and the game. That has especially been the case during a down February, during which they have posted a season-worst 46.4 percent Corsi For rate.
Letang and Dumoulin are doing their part and then some. They rank near the top of the league among defensemen in even-strength Relative Corsi For Percentage, which compares a team's shot share when a particular player is on and off the ice. A positive number means a player boosts his team's puck possession when he's skating, while a negative total means he's a drag on his team's shot share. The recently-acquired Marcus Pettersson is holding his own in Pittsburgh, while Juuso Riikola has been adequate during his first exposure to the NHL. Jack Johnson and Olli Maatta, by contrast, have been outright liabilities at times:
Letang ranks second among NHL defensemen in Relative Corsi, trailing only Erik Karlsson (+7.4 percent) among those with 30+ games played, while Dumoulin checks in at 14th. Pettersson places 58th, and Riikola is 124th. Johnson's Relative Corsi ranks 169th, while Maatta is 175th among the 187 defensemen with 30+ games this season. With Letang skating, the Penguins generate 55 percent of total scoring chances while dominating shots (36.4 taken per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, 30.5 allowed). The Penguins also have fared incredibly well with Dumoulin, Letang's frequent partner, on the ice (55.4 percent of scoring chances, 35.5 shots for, 31.7 shots allowed). Pettersson's numbers aren't great, but they're decent enough (50.1 percent of scoring chances, 31.3 shots for, 33.3 shots allowed). For everyone else, the ice has titled against the Pens. With Riikola skating, the Penguins generate 49.5 percent of scoring chances, while taking 30.9 shots per 60 and surrendering 35.3. The stats are even more bleak for $3.25-million man Johnson (48 percent of scoring chances, 28.2 shots taken, 34.5 allowed) and $4-million man Maatta (47.3 percent of scoring opportunities, 28.9 shots taken, 32.5 allowed).
Not long ago, the narrative was the Penguins had too much depth on defense. Now, the blue line is looking awfully top-heavy and it's lacking players who control the puck outside of Letang, Dumoulin and to a lesser extent, Pettersson. It's hard to know what to expect from Schultz right away, given he's returning from a four-month absence caused by a gruesome leg injury, but the Penguins could desperately use another defenseman who creates value on both sides of the puck.
MORE PENGUINS
• Pearson scuffling: Tanner Pearson has technically improved since he was swapped in exchange for Carl Hagelin -- it would have been hard not to, considering he had one point in 17 games before the deal -- but the 26-year-old winger still hasn't played up the standards that he set during his early years with the Kings. With Pearson on the ice, the Penguins have generated just 47 percent of total shots -- far below his outstanding 54.9-percent career average. With Pearson skating in five-on-five situations, Pittsburgh is creating 48 percent of scoring chances, 47.7 percent of high-danger scoring chances and 47.2 percent of goals. He's averaging 0.35 points per game, which is below his career total (0.44). The Penguins acquired Pearson because of his youth, strong puck possession game, and his seemingly reasonable contract ($3.75-million per year through the 2020-21 season). So far, we haven't seen that guy.
• Long-distance danger: While Matt Murray has picked up his play as the 2018-19 season has progressed, he's having an especially hard time preventing goals on shots from long distance. According to Natural Stat Trick, the average goal scored against Murray has been from 29.9 feet away from the net. That's the second-longest average goal distance among netminders who have played at least 500 minutes in five-on-five situations (Garret Sparks has the longest distance on goals allowed, at 30.9 feet). Murray has to improve from long range, but the Penguins could do their goalie a solid by clearing some of the net-front traffic that creates the opportunity for screens and more effective shot fakes.
PIRATES
• Frankie's fastball: The Pirates have reunited with Francisco Liriano, signing the now 35-year-old lefty to a minor league deal that will pay him $1.8 million if he makes the roster with the possibility of an additional $1.5 million in incentives. Whether he's stretched out as a starter or deployed out of the bullpen, Liriano will need to solve one fundamental issue: hitters are demolishing his fastball. Fangraphs tracks the run value per 100 pitches thrown of each pitch type. Zero is average, while a positive number means that the pitch is better than average and a negative number means the pitch is below-average. In 2018, Liriano's fastball was -2.2 runs worse than average per 100 pitches thrown. That was the worst mark among all MLB pitchers who threw at least 100 innings, and it wasn't even close (Sam Gaviglio was second worst, at -1.9 runs per 100 pitches). During Liriano's heyday with the Pirates from 2013-15, his fastball was at least passable (-0.5 runs per 100 pitches). He has long been a slider and changeup-centric pitcher (he threw his heater 47 percent of the time last year), but Liriano can't get by with such a wretched fastball.
• Frankie's splits: Liriano isn't the power pitcher he used to be, as he struck out a career-low 7.4 batters per nine innings last year as a starter with the Detroit Tigers while posting a 4.58 ERA. At this point, Liriano might be best served as a reliever who focuses on wiping out same-handed hitters. In 2018, Liriano held lefty batters to a .516 On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) and induced strikeouts in 22.5 percent of plate appearances. Right-handers, by contrast, posted an .824 OPS and struck out just 18 percent of the time. According to Baseball-Reference, Liriano's OPS allowed against left-handers was 44 percent better than the overall MLB average. His OPS allowed to righties was 23 percent worse than average. He looks like a LOOGY (Left-handed One Out GuY) to me.
• Celebrating Bob Friend: Let's take a moment to salute the career of Pirates stalwart Bob Friend, who passed away recently at the age of 88. The man known as "Warrior" still holds some of the franchise's all-time records, including innings pitched (3,480.1) and strikeouts (1,682), and he ranks fourth on the all-times win list (191) behind Wilbur Cooper (202), Babe Adams (194) and Sam Leever (194). He's also the team's all-time leader in losses (218), but that's mainly because he pitched on some lousy teams that provided little run support early in his career. Friend made four All-Star teams and enjoyed four seasons during which he posted a park-and-league-adjusted ERA (or ERA+) that was at least 25 percent better than the overall MLB average. Judging by ERA+, Friend's best seasons came in 1955 (144 ERA+ or 44 percent better than average), 1963 (140 ERA+), 1962 (129 ERA+) and 1960 (125 ERA+).
STEELERS
• Hilton's second-half woes: As the Steelers once again try to strengthen a secondary bested far too often in 2018, they'll also need to ponder which version of Mike Hilton they'll get next year. During the first half, Hilton performed like one of the better slot cornerbacks in the game. But as the season progressed, he was burned more often. Hilton allowed receivers he was covering to catch 61.7 percent of passes for an average of 11.5 yards per reception and 7.1 yards per target during the first half of the season, according to the Player Profiler website. During the second half, he allowed catches 68.8 percent of the time for an average of 12.4 yards per reception and 8.5 yards per target. While Hilton's struggles didn't reach crisis level like those of Artie Burns, the Steelers need the 24-year-old to re-establish himself as a key piece of the secondary in 2019 and beyond.
• Starting, ending flat: On the whole, the 2018 Steelers defense was a middle-of-the pack unit (it ranked 16th in points allowed). But the performance varied wildly from one quarter to the next. In the middle of the game, the Steelers clamped down. The Steelers surrendered an average of 4.3 points per game during the second quarter (tied with New England for second-lowest in the NFL) and 4.5 points per game in the third quarter (15th), according to the Team Rankings website. During the bookends of the game, though? They got beat down. The Steelers coughed up an average of six points per game in the first quarter (fifth-worst among defenses) and 7.7 points per game in the fourth quarter (ninth-worst in the game). In 2017, when the Steelers marched to a 13-3 record and the AFC Championship Game, they gave up 4.6 points per game in the fourth quarter (third-lowest in the NFL).
• Conner's and Samuels' soft hands: With Le'Veon Bell sitting out the 2018 season, the Steelers figured to throw considerably fewer passes to their running backs and enjoy less success when targeting those backs. Instead, the combo of James Conner and Jaylen Samuels exceeded expectations in the passing game. Conner and Samuels combined for 696 receiving yards, an 81-percent catch rate and 8.6 yards per reception. In 2017, Bell had 655 receiving yards, an 80.2 percent catch rate and 7.7 yards per reception. Samuels, a fifth-round pick out of NC State, was heralded for his receiving skills in college (he had 1,851 career receiving yards while playing a hybrid role for the Wolfpack), but Conner's soft hands are a more recent development. Conner had far fewer receiving yards during his 39-game career at Pitt (412) than he did with the Steelers in 2018.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Expand the DH?: There's increased talk about MLB implementing a universal designated hitter rule -- talk that has creaky-kneed sluggers rejoicing and traditionalists scoffing. The universal DH would also be a win for fans who hate watching thousands -- 5,135 of them last year, to be exact -- of boring plate appearances by completely overmatched pitchers. And if anything, pitchers are becoming even more helpless at the plate. In 2018, pitchers collectively batted .115, got on base at a .144 clip and slugged .148. Once adjusted for the league-wide scoring environment and park factors, pitchers were 125 percent worse than the average MLB hitter last year. That adjusted batting performance is actually the worst single-season mark in MLB history, according to Fangraphs. Six of the seven worst batting lines by pitchers in MLB history have been posted within the last seven seasons. Is the "strategy" preserved by having the pitcher's spot in the lineup really worth having to suffer through so many awful ABs?
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