The thirty-something superstar is an endangered species across virtually all sports, and hockey is no exception. To wit: The average age of an NHL player is 27.7 years old this season, which is down from 28.2 five years ago. The league's top ten players in both points per game and shot share (Corsi For) are an average of 25.6 years old. In a league increasingly defined by speed and skill, thirty is practically over the hill.
Unless, of course, you're Sidney Crosby. The former wunderkind, who broke into the league while living under Mario Lemieux's roof back in 2005-06, is still one of the game's best players--if not the best player--at age 31. With elite two-way play, Crosby has been one of the few constants during a 2018-19 Penguins season that has been characterized by inconsistency and injury. He's also enjoying one of the greatest years ever for a player who has left his twenties behind.
Let's start with the offense. Crosby might not be in line for the Art Ross Trophy, but he can still rack up points. He ranks seventh in points per game this year (1.27) while helping the Penguins dominate when he's on the ice. Pittsburgh has tallied 68 percent of total five-on-five goals scored when Crosby is skating, which ranks fourth among all players who have 500+ minutes. It's also Crosby's best goals-for rate since 2012-13 (71.2 percent). The Penguins are generating 57.5 percent of scoring chances when Sid plays, which is tenth among NHL players and his best personal rate since 2012-13 (61.3), and 59 percent of high-danger scoring chances. That's 20th in the league and Crosby's best mark since 2011-12.
It's awfully rare to find a thirty-something player who's still such an elite offensive performer. Crosby is on pace for 127 adjusted points this season. Adjusted points is a Hockey Reference stat that accounts for differences in the league wide offensive environment across different eras. It's a way to make a more direct comparison among players who suited up during, say, the arcade-style scoring frenzy that was the 1980s, and players who currently take the ice. If Crosby keeps up this pace, he will finish the 2018-19 season tied with Lemieux for the eighth-most adjusted points in a season by a player who is at least 30 years old. A few other former, ageless Penguins cracked nearly cracked the top ten. Jaromir Jagr (120 adjusted points at age 33 with the Rangers in 2005-06) and Ron Francis (115 adjusted points at age 32 for Pittsburgh in 1995-96) just missed the list.
So, Crosby can still score. But he hasn't missed a beat defensively, either. The "200 foot player" is one of hockey's biggest cliches, but it really applies here. With Crosby skating, the Penguins are allowing 28.3 shots against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play. That's his best mark since the 2014-15 season (27.4) and the third-best mark of his career. They're also allowing 23.5 scoring chances against per 60 minutes, compared to 27.8 last year. That's Crosby's best mark since 2015-16 (23.1). Overall, Pittsburgh is surrendering just two goals against per 60 minutes with Crosby skating during five-on-five play--a new career best for the 14-year veteran.
With stellar offense and a strong defensive conscience, Crosby continues to tilt the ice in his team's favor like few others. With Crosby on the ice, the Penguins generate 8.4 percent more shots compared to when he's on the bench. That difference--called Relative Corsi Percentage--is the best mark of Crosby's NHL tenure and way above his excellent +5 percent career average. The only players with a better Relative Corsi For rate this year (minimum 40 games played) are Mark Stone (11.3), Dylan Larkin (10.2), Anthony Mantha (9.8) and Tomas Tatar (8.5).
Penguins fans have had the pleasure of watching a candidate for the game's top player almost uninterrupted for the past 35 years. But Crosby's greatness, as he approaches his 32nd birthday, should not be taken for granted. While many other NHL megastars slow down past their twenties, Crosby remains the driving force behind the Penguins' mission to make the playoffs for a 13th consecutive season and chase down a sixth Stanley Cup. It's terrifying to think where this talented, but disjointed and banged-up team would be without their captain playing at a world-class level.
MORE PENGUINS
• Missing: One Swedish net-crasher: The Penguins gave a five-year contract extension to Patric Hornqvist at $5.3 million per year to continue driving goalies insane and scoring greasy, net-front goals. But that version of Hornqvist hasn't always been present during a 2018-19 season that has been interrupted by concussion and other injury concerns. Hornqvist is averaging just 0.55 points per game (below his 0.63 career average) and taking only 2.6 shots per contest (3.2 career average). Both his points and shots per game totals are his lowest since he was a rookie with the Predators back in 2008-09. One of the problems is that Hornqvist isn't driving to the net with quite as much gusto. According to the Icy Data website, Hornqvist has attempted 55% of his shots in the area directly in front of the crease (between the faceoff circles) or within the crease. That's a lot compared to the average NHL player (35%), but it's low compared to Hornqvist's 64% mark during the 2017-18 season. To end his scoring slump, Hornqvist needs to make net minders more uncomfortable.
• A great tipper: Jake Guentzel has evolved into an elite goal-scorer, tallying 0.45 per game in 2018-19 to nearly double up his output the previous season (0.27 in 2017-18). One big reason that Guentzel is suddenly besting goalies like it's the Stanley Cup playoffs? His Jedi-like ability to re-direct pucks on their way to the net. Guentzel has scored six goals by tipping the puck this season, which ranks tied for sixth among all NHL players. That already equals his tipped goals total from last season. Fueled by Guentzel, the Penguins place sixth in the league in tipped goals (23). Only Boston (33), Colorado (27), Washington (24), Philadelphia (24) and Calgary (24) have re-directed more pucks past opposing goalies.
PIRATES
• Archer optimism: Overall in 2018, Chris Archer posted an underwhelming 4.31 ERA --a mark that was slightly above the 4.19 average for MLB starting pitchers last year. Should we expect more from the Pirates' big-ticket trade deadline acquisition in 2019? The advanced stats say yes. Archer struck out plenty of batters (25.4 percent of batters faced, which ranked 22nd among starting pitchers with 140+ innings pitched) and did a decent job of limiting walks (7.7 percent of batters faced, 45th among starters). But he seemingly had terrible luck, with a .338 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) that was way above his career average (.301) and the .291 average for all MLB starters. In fact, no starting pitcher with 140+ innings tossed last season had a higher BABIP than Archer. When pitchers stray that far from the average, it tends to be a fluke. While Archer's ERA was middling, his fielding independent ERA (FIP)--a more accurate predictor of future performance that accounts for strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed--was 3.75. That tied for 28th among starters meeting the 140 inning requirement. Expect to see more of the September version of Archer this year, rather than the oft-pummeled August edition.
• Shifty Business: Defensive shifts have become a much more prominent component of baseball strategy in recent years. But any team that's maneuvering fielders to steal hits away from Corey Dickerson might want to think twice. In 2018, opponents deployed a shift against Dickerson in 116 of his plate appearances. Against the shift, Dickerson's park-and-league adjusted batting line was 34 percent above the overall MLB average in such situations. That was in the top 30 among all qualified big league hitters, and was actually far above Dickerson's offensive performance when he wasn't facing a shift (three percent above the MLB average). He has been a shift-beater throughout his career, with a batting line that's nine percent above average in those situations since he broke into the majors.
• Shortstops and the strike zone: Both of the Pirates' candidates to start at shortstop, Erik Gonzalez and Kevin Newman, have struggled to control the strike zone in the major leagues. Gonzalez has a 0.15 walk-to-strikeout ratio, while Newman has a 0.17 BB-to-K ratio. While both have punched out far more often than they have earned a free pass, the reasons for those strike zone control woes are different. Gonzalez is aggressive to a fault. Newman, by contrast, is too passive. Gonzalez has chased about 38 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone, compared to the 31 percent average. In particular, he's lunching at curveballs (54 percent chase rate), sliders (53 percent) and changeups (43 percent). Newman didn't chase as many pitches off the plate during his brief MLB debut (33 percent), but he let too many strikes go by. His in-zone swing rate was just 63 percent, below the 68 percent MLB average. Newman swung at just 40 percent of in-zone curveballs, 60 percent of sinkers, and about 64 percent on both four-seam fastballs and sliders.
STEELERS
• An all-time sleeper: In the next few months, the Antonio Brown saga should conclude--unless, of course, it doesn't. Regardless of whether AB has taken his his final Rollys Royce or helicopter ride to St. Vincent, he'll go down as one of the best late-round draft picks in Steelers, and NFL, history. Pro Football Reference developed a stat called Approximate Value (AV), which attempts to measure a player's overall production across different positions on the field and across different eras. Brown, a sixth-round pick in the 2010 draft out of Central Michigan, has already compiled 102 AV during his career. That's the second-highest total in Steelers history among players who were selected in the sixth round of the draft or later during the post-merger era (1970 to present), trailing only linebacker Greg Lloyd (110 AV, as a sixth-rounder in the 1988 draft). Brown ranks 24th among all NFL players taken in round six or later during the post-merger era, and is highly likely to finish his career as second on the list. Good luck catching the leader (Tom Brady, with 269 AV and counting).
• D-line does its part: The Steelers' defense could look drastically different at linebacker and defensive back in 2019, but the defensive line will return three standouts who were elite at generating pressure this past season. Cameron Heyward (eight sacks), Javon Hargrave (6.5) and Stephon Tuitt (5.5) accounted for 20 of the team's 52 sacks (38.5 percent). Led by that trio, Pittsburgh's defensive line led the NFL in adjusted sack rate (9.3 percent) in 2018. Adjusted sack rate accounts for the quality of the opponent, as well as the game situation (including down and distance). In 2017, the Steelers' D-line placed 12th in adjusted sack rate (6.9 percent).
• The Secondary? Not so much: While the lineman made plenty of splash plays, the defense as a whole was practically allergic to interceptions. Pittsburgh picked off just eight passes in 2018, which was the fifth lowest total among all NFL teams. Only the 49ers (two), Cardinals, Packers and Lions (seven apiece) had fewer interceptions. The Steelers had twice as many picks in 2017 (16), and got their hands on more passes during other recent playoff seasons in 2016 (13), 2015 (17) and 2014 (11). The last time that a Steelers defender had even a handful of interceptions in a season was back in 2010, when Troy Polamalu had seven INTs. In 2018, Joe Haden "led" the Steelers with two picks.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Time's up: After implementing a pitch clock in the upper levels of the minor leagues a few years ago, baseball will experiment with a similar rule during MLB spring training in 2019. In most situations, pitchers will have 20 seconds between pitch deliveries. Will this latest pace-of-play initiative by MLB commissioner Rob Manfred make a difference? If it eventually becomes a big league rule and is actually enforced with ball-and-strike penalties, the answer appears to be yes. Last year, pitchers took an average of 24.1 seconds to throw between pitches, according to Fangraphs. Over the years, the downtime between pitches has increased (it was 21.7 seconds back in 2008). Some high-profile hurlers--including Justin Verlander (an MLB-high 27 seconds between pitches in 2018), David Price (26.9) and Aaron Nola (26.6) might have to quicken the pace. Among Pirates pitchers, Felipe Vazquez (26), Joe Musgrove (25.6) and Chris Archer (25.1) are the slow pokes.
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