If the Pirates are going to legitimately contend for the National League Central crown or a Wild Card spot in 2019, they're going to need more production from their lineup. Last year, Pittsburgh ranked ninth in the NL in runs scored per game (4.3) and sixth in park and league-adjusted offense (at two percent below the overall MLB average). GM Neal Huntington and company didn't go big-game hunting on the free agent or trade market for a slugger, so the team is relying upon internal improvements to plate more runs this season. And perhaps no player has more pressure on him to raise his offensive game than first baseman Josh Bell.
The Pirates persuaded the hulking switch-hitter to turn pro back in 2011 with a $5-million signing bonus, and Bell routinely graced top prospect lists while charging towards Pittsburgh. He delivered right away, too, setting a new rookie home run record for an NL switch-hitter in 2017 (26). Last year, however, his homer total plummeted to 12. What does Bell need to do to regain his power stroke? And, just as importantly, does he actually need to be a full-fledged slugger to be effective?
Compared to 2017, Bell's home run total fell by 14 and his slugging percentage dipped by more than 50 points (from .466 to .411 in 2018). He hit for less power both as a left-handed batter (.470 slugging percentage in 2017 and .416 in 2018) and as a righty (.453 in 2017 and .399 in 2018). His power decline can be traced to two main issues: He pulled pitches less often and with less authority, turning into a singles hitter versus breaking and off-speed pitches.
In 2017, Bell pulled 41.5 percent of the pitches he put in play. And when he hit one down the line, he crushed it. He had a .702 slugging percentage when pulling the ball, which was more than 50 points above the overall MLB average in such situations (.646). Seventeen of his 26 home runs came on pulled pitches. This past season, Bell pulled only 33.8 percent of balls put in play. His slugging percentage tumbled t0 .541, and he had just five pull-side home runs. Bell's power output declined more modestly to the opposite field (.504 slugging percentage in 2017 and .421 in 2018), but the difference in his pull-side production was huge.
In terms of pitch type, Bell had problems driving breaking pitches especially. He did plenty of damage versus curveballs and sliders as a rookie, but barely made a peep in 2018:
Bell hit six homers on breaking pitches in 2017, but just two in 2018. Opponents might have caught on to his issues with curves and sliders, as pitchers threw him more breaking balls last year (24.8 percent of the time) compared to 2017 (19.7 percent).
While Bell undoubtedly hit with less authority last year, looking at his power numbers alone overstates his struggles. He was arguably just as good of a hitter last year as he was in 2017, when you consider that he did a better job of drawing walks (13.2 percent of plate appearances in 2018, 10.6 percent in 2017) and getting on base (.357 on-base percentage in '18, .334 OBP in '17). Overall, his adjusted batting line was eight percent above the overall MLB average as a rookie. Last year, it was 12 percent above average.
Can Bell find a happy medium between getting on base and hitting for power? His post-All-Star break performance in 2018 suggests that he might have already done so.
During the first half of the 2018 season, Bell had a .261 average/.342 OBP/.396 slugging percentage. His isolated power -- a measure of extra-base hitting prowess calculated by subtracting slugging percentage from batting average -- was .135. Bell's overall batting line was just three percent above the MLB average. That doesn't cut it for a first baseman. But during the second half, he turned into an on-base machine with mid-range power.
Bell swung at fewer pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (28.5 percent in the first half, 23.8 percent in the second half), which helped him boost his walk rate from 11.5 percent before the break to 16.3 percent afterwards. His triple-slash improved to .263/.383/.440, and his isolated power jumped from .135 to .177. The quality of his contact improved considerably, as Bell's hard hit rate (pitches put in play at 95+ mph) went from 29.2 percent in the first half to 42.8 percent after the All-Star break. Bell's second-half adjusted batting line was 27 percent above the overall MLB average, which ranked fifth among qualified first basemen. During the first half, he ranked 16th.
At a towering 6-foot-4 and 240 pounds, Bell just seems like the kind of guy who should club 30-plus home runs per season. His rookie year shows he has that capability. But the kind of player Bell was during the second half of 2018 -- drawing walks like Joey Votto while spraying the gaps with doubles -- might actually be more valuable. Rather than encouraging Bell to swing for the Allegheny River, new hitting coach Rick Eckstein might want to have Bell deploy the approach that made him a highly effective, if unconventional first baseman late last year.
MORE PIRATES
• Down goes Frazier? Second baseman Adam Frazier took a huge leap forward offensively last season, transforming from a singles hitter who was demoted to Triple-A Indianapolis early in 2018 to a poor man's Chase Utley. Frazier finished the year with a park and league-adjusted batting line that was 18 percent above the overall MLB average. In 2016 and 2017, Frazier's adjusted line was one percent below the big league average. If you're a believer, you can point to Frazier's change in batting stance, his increase in fly balls hit (31 percent in 2018, compared to 25 percent in 2016-17), and his increase in hard contact (35 percent of balls put in play, versus 29 percent in 2016-17). The projection systems aren't yet sold on his breakout. According to the depth chart projections on Fangraphs, Frazier is forecast to be about three percent above average offensively next year. Is Frazier a legit extra-base threat now, or will he revert to hitting singles?
• Charging ahead: On the whole, the 2018 Pirates were a poor defensive team. Pittsburgh was a collective -36 runs worse than the average MLB team, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). DRS rates a fielder's ability compared to an average player at his respective position, accounting for factors like range, throwing arm, and errors. Gold Glove winner Corey Dickerson was a happy outlier, saving +16 runs more than the average left fielder. How did Dickerson do it? By being one of the best in the game at closing in on fly balls that were hit in front of him. Dickerson was eight outs above average on balls hit in front of him, according to MLB Statcast. That tied him with Milwaukee's Lorenzo Cain for fourth-best among all MLB outfielders. Only St. Louis' Harrison Bader (15 outs above average on balls hit in), the Cubs' Albert Almora Jr. (10) and Atlanta's Ender Inciarte (nine) were better at tracking down fly balls hit in front of them.
PENGUINS
• Watch your back, Wilson: Who says NHL enforcers are extinct? Certainly not GM Jim Rutherford, who acquired $4 million-a-year defenseman Erik Gudbranson from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for winger Tanner Pearson. Pittsburgh couldn't have picked up Gudbranson for his scoring touch (he's scoring 0.15 points per game this year, about the same as his career average) or his strong puck possession game (his teams are taking just 43.6 percent of total shots when he's on the ice in 2018-19, and his career average is 47 percent). The Penguins, apparently, are willing to pay a premium for Gudbranson's fists. According to the Hockey Fights website, Gudbranson has squared up with an opposing player 27 times during his NHL career. The site allows users to vote for the "winner" of fights, and the former third overall pick-turned-pugilist has an 18-9 record all-time. He's 1-0 against Public Enemy No. 1, Tom Wilson. While the Penguins are seemingly focused on toughening up the roster, the NHL as a whole is moving away from such goonery (there have been an average of 0.19 fights per game in 2018-19, compared to 0.6 per game in 2008-09).
• Danger ahead: Matt Murray has been infuriatingly unpredictable during the 2018-19 season. He teases fans with locked-in stretches where he makes hockey card saves, but he has also struggled with injuries once again and while going though ruts that get him pulled from the net. Murray's high-danger save rate shows just how volatile his performance has been. High-danger saves are those made on shots that have the best odds of becoming a goal, based on shot type, shot location, and odd-man rush situations. Murray had an abysmal high-danger save rate during five-on-five play in October (.739) and November (.765), before turning into a fortress in December (.914). Since then, he has been on the decline. Murray had a .840 high-danger save rate in January and an .831 mark in February and early March. Overall, Murray ranks 45th in high-danger save percentage among goalies who have 500+ minutes played in five-on-five situations (.817). He was much better at making crucial saves in 2017-18 (.857, 15th among goalies) and 2016-17 (.867, sixth).
• The Pettersson project: Many Penguins fans and analysts were up in arms when the Penguins seemingly sold low on Daniel Sprong, shipping the former top prospect to the Anaheim Ducks last December in exchange for defenseman Marcus Pettersson. After a half-season, at least, Pittsburgh has gotten the better end of the deal. Pettersson has nearly matched Sprong in terms of points per game (0.35, compared to 0.39 for Sprong) while doing a better job of driving puck possession for his team. With Pettersson on the ice, the Penguins generate +3.1 percent more shots in five-on-five play compared to when he's on the bench. When Sprong skates for Anaheim, meanwhile, the Ducks generate -2.0 percent fewer shots compared to when he's off the ice. The Penguins are creating 51.5 percent of scoring chances, 54.6 percent of high-danger scoring chances and 60 percent of goals scored when Pettersson is skating. The lanky Swede isn't yet 23 years old, he's inexpensive, and he's playing a quality two-way game for a team suddenly in desperate need of defensemen. The trade with Anaheim looks better by the week.
STEELERS
• Haden not slowing down: The Steelers have a rough history in drafting and developing cornerbacks. The free agent signing of Joe Haden, by contrast, has worked out splendidly. Haden will turn 30 in a few weeks, but the former Cleveland Browns star has shown no sign of decline. In fact, he was better during his second year in Pittsburgh than in his first. Haden surrendered just nine yards per reception in 2018, according to the Player Profiler website. That was the best mark among all qualified NFL corners, and a major improvement over his mark of 15.5 yards per reception in 2017 (62nd among corners). Haden also allowed a 55.1 percent catch rate, which ranked 13th among corners. He allowed catches 53.2 percent in 2017, which placed 20th. He broke up 13 passes (third among corners), compared to eight in 2017 (36th). Signing a cornerback into his 30s can be a risky proposition, but there's a reason why the Steelers might be eager to extend Haden's contract.
• The long and short of it: In 2018, Ben Roethlisbeger thrived when he either threw a short screen pass or chucked a deep ball. His intermediate passing game, meanwhile, was a mixed bag. Roethlisberger had a 99.4 passer rating when throwing less than 10 yards to the left side of the field (88.2 NFL average), 97.9 to the middle (92) and 91.9 to the right side (87.4), according to NFL Next Gen Stats. On 20-plus yard passes, he was excellent in all directions: 113 passer rating to the left side (76.6 average), 93.8 to the middle (89.6) and 105.8 to the right (78). Roethlisberger's 10-to-20-yard passes were hit and miss. He had plenty of success when throwing to his left (117.3, 81.4 average), but struggled when targeting a receiver over the middle (75.1, 92.9 average) or to the right (51.9, 82.1 average). Establishing a consistent intermediate passing game should be a priority for Roethlisberger and the Steelers in 2019.
• Big bucks for Bud? Many people assumed that when the Steelers picked up linebacker Bud Dupree's fifth-year option last spring, he would only see that big pay day in 2019 if he had a breakout 2018 season. That didn't really happen, so it seemed likely that GM Kevin Colbert would either negotiate a lower salary than the $9.2 million Dupree would make on the option or the team would cut bait on their first-round pick in the 2015 draft. That would be a huge sum to pay a guy with 20 sacks and 54 career games, and who rated as the 78th-best edge defender in the NFL last season according to Pro Football Focus' player rating grades. According to PFF, Dupree was a mediocre pass rusher (61.1 grade on a 0-100 scale) and run stopper (65), and was only slightly better in pass coverage (67.1). His overall player grade was 60.5. Dupree's player rating was 55.4 in 2017, 62.5 in 2016 and 43.9 in 2015.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Rise of the sliders: The are no shortage of reasons for why major league hitters had a collective .248 batting average in 2018 (tied for the lowest full-season mark since 1972) and struck out in an MLB-record 22.3 percent of plate appearances. One factor is that pitchers are throwing more sliders, and wiping the floor with batters in the process. Overall, pitchers threw a slider 16.9 percent of the time last year. That's the highest rate on record dating back to 2002 (when Baseball Info Solutions began tracking pitch-specific data), and it was the fifth consecutive season that the slider usage rate increased (13.7 percent in 2014, 14.8 percent in 2015, 15.2 percent in 2016, and 16.3 percent in 2017). On a per-pitch basis, the slider is the game's most lethal offering. Sliders were worth about +0.5 runs above the overall MLB average per 100 pitches thrown in 2018, according to Fangraphs. A positive Runs per 100 number means that pitchers have the advantage over hitters. The Pirates threw a league-average rate of sliders (17 percent), and were slightly better than average when using the pitch (+0.57 runs per 100 pitches thrown).
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