Predicting the Pirates' opening-day roster taken in Bradenton, Fla. (Courtesy of StepOutside.org)

MELKY CABRERA - AP

BRADENTON, Fla. -- Opening day is two weeks and a day away and the Pirates still have 49 active players in their spring-training camp.

So, who will be on that 25-man roster when the Pirates and Reds meet at Great American Ball Park? Only time will provide a concrete answer, but it’s always fun to speculate.

So, let’s speculate away.

A total of 14 players are clearly locked into spots and defined roles: Francisco Cervelli, Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Corey Dickerson and Starling Marte in the starting lineup; Jacob Stallings as the backup catcher until Elias Diaz regains his strength after missing more than two weeks of camp with a virus; Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams, Joe Musgrove and Chris Archer in the rotation; and Felipe Vazquez, Keone Kela, Richard Rodriguez and Kyle Crick in the bullpen.

Five more players will also be there on opening day, though their roles are still undefined.

Jung Ho Kang and Colin Moran are competing to be the starting third baseman and both will make the team in some capacity.

Erik Gonzalez will be the starting shortstop if he beats out Kevin Newman and the primary utility infielder if he doesn’t.

Lonnie Chisenhall will be on the team, either as the starting right fielder if he beats out Melky Cabrera, or as a four-corners bench player if he loses out.

Nick Kingham and Jordan Lyles are also assured spots. Both are competing with Steven Brault and Rookie Davis for the fifth starter’s job and either or both will wind up in the bullpen depending on how the competition plays out.

That brings us to 20 players, leaving five spots unsettled.

Brault and Davis could make the team as relievers if they don’t win the fifth-starter’s battle.

However, working against Brault is that he has one minor-league option remaining. Working against Davis is that he is on a minor-league contract. Thus, the Pirates could easily send both to Indianapolis to begin the season in the Triple-A rotation.

Newman’s best hope to make the team is to become the starting shortstop. Clint Hurdle all but said last week that Newman will go to Indianapolis if he is not a regular.

Pablo Reyes’ status almost certainly will be contingent on the shortstop situation. If Gonzalez is the guy, then Reyes figures to make the team in a utility role. If Newman wins, then Reyes will likely get squeezed off the roster in favor of Gonzalez.

Cabrera seems to have the inside track on making the team as an outfield reserve if he doesn’t beat out Chisenhall in right field. However, Cabrera is being pushed by non-roster players Patrick Kivlehan and JB Shuck. Both have a legitimate shot to make the team and neither has opt-outs in their minor-league free agent contracts, so they will be with Indianapolis if they don't make the team.

With Kingham, Lyles or both headed for relief, that would likely leave two spots open or maybe three.  The Pirates plan to begin the season with a 12-man pitching staff, rather than carry 13 pitchers, because they have five days off in the first 3 1/2 weeks.

Right-hander Nick Burdi presents an interesting case. He is a Rule 5 Draft pick and would need to be offered back to the Phillies if the Pirates tried to send him to the minor leagues.

The Pirates are almost certain to carry only one other lefty reliever beside Vazquez. Though Brault could figure into the mix, it’s doubtful he makes it. More likely it will be Francisco Liriano or Tyler Lyons despite neither veteran being lights out in the Grapefruit League, so far.

Right-handers Michael Feliz, Dovydas Neverauskas, Jake Barrett, Brandon Maurer and Geoff Hartlieb are also in the mix, though the Pirates going with seven relievers will hurt their chances.

The hard-throwing Maurer is intriguing but hasn’t pitched in the two weeks because of a knee injury, though he is scheduled to appear Thursday against the Phillies at Bradenton. Barrett has yet to appear in an exhibition game as he is building up arm strength after being in designated-for-assignment limbo for a week with the Giants before being claimed off waivers.

Feliz and Neverauskas have been inconsistent, mirroring their regular-season performance in the major leagues. Hartlieb has impressed but the Pirates never promote a player to the major leagues straight from Double-A.

So how will it shake out?

Kang will be the starting third baseman and the left-handed hitting Moran will spell him occasionally against right-handed starters. Look for the Pirates to use Moran at first base before breaking camp a week from Sunday, and perhaps even at second base and shortstop.

Gonzalez will win the shortstop job despite an underwhelming spring performance. The Pirates have talked him up too much since acquiring him in a trade from the Indians in November to bench him. That will also open the door for Reyes to make the club.

Chisenhall will be the starting right fielder until Gregory Polanco recovers from shoulder surgery.

• Cabrera and Shuck will also make the team. Cabrera provides a veteran switch-hitter off the bench and the left-handed hitting Shuck balances the bench and gives the Pirates a true backup center-fielder to Marte.

Lyles will be the fifth starter. The Pirates all but promised Lyles the job when they signed him to a one-year, $2.05-million contract as a free agent in December.

Kingham will make the team as a long reliever. He is out of minor-league options and the Pirates have invested too much time to potentially lose him on waivers. Kingham will get first crack at the rotation if – when? – Lyles falters while Brault and Davis will go to Indianapolis to provide starting depth.

Burdi will make the team because the Pirates have also invested a lot of time in him. He spent most of last season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and it’s difficult to imagine them walking away now.

Liriano will win the second lefty reliever spot. Even though he walked all four batters he faced Sunday against the Yankees, he has impressed with his stuff and willingness to make the transition from starter to reliever.

After all those considerations, here is how the opening-day roster will shake out:

Pitchers: Chris Archer, Nick Burdi, Kyle Crick, Keone Kela, Nick Kingham, Francisco Liriano, Jordan Lyles, Joe Musgrove, Richard Rodriguez, Jameson Taillon, Felipe Vazquez, Trevor Williams.

Catchers: Francisco Cervelli, Jacob Stallings.

Infielders: Josh Bell, Adam Frazier, Erik Gonzalez, Jung Ho Kang, Colin Moran, Pablo Reyes.

Outfielders: Melky Cabrera, Lonnie Chisenhall, Corey Dickerson, Starling Marte, JB Shuck.

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