With a torrid stretch of play in March (9-2-3, with an NHL-best 21 points), the Penguins have gone from being on the fringes of the playoff race to pushing the Capitals and Islanders for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division. A team that looked like it might be one-round-and-done this spring now looks capable of making a deeper run. If you want to nit-pick, though, the Penguins still aren't playing terribly well during five-on-five play. They're 22nd in the NHL this month in five-on-five goals scored per 60 minutes (1.88) and rank 13th in Corsi For percentage (50.8), which is the share of overall shots that a team generates. For the season, Pittsburgh ranks seventh in goals per 60 minutes during five-on-five situations (2.75) and 15th in Corsi (49.5 percent shot share).
No player embodies the Pens' five-on-five scoring challenges more than Phil Kessel, who last netted an even-strength goal on January 30 against the Tampa Bay Lightning. As usual, Kessel has been ultra-productive on the power play and is averaging a point per game overall in 2018-19. But five-on-five, the Penguins need more offense from Phil. The good news? While the goals haven't started flowing, Kessel is showing signs of rounding into his dangerous playoff form--and not just on the power play.
Compared to his first several years in Pittsburgh, Kessel has scuffled overall in five-on-five play this season. His five-on-five shot share (Corsi) is just 46.6 percent, compared to 50.4 percent in 2017-18, 47.1 percent in 2016-17 and 53.9 percent in 2015-16. Among Penguins who have at least 500 minutes of five-on-five ice time in 2018-19, Kessel ranks just 12th in Corsi. With Kessel skating five-on-five, Pittsburgh is generating only 48.5 percent of scoring chances (50.4 percent in 2017-18, 46.8 percent in 2016-17, 52.8 percent in 2015-16) and 48.2 percent of high-danger scoring chances (those with the highest odds of becoming a goal based on shot type, shot location, and odd-man rush situations). Kessel's high-danger rate was 47 percent in 2017-18, 46.8 percent in 2016-17 and 52 percent in 2015-16.
Why has Kessel's five-on-five production suffered? At times, it seems as though he's reluctant to unleash his wicked shot. Kessel has attempted just 7.6 shots per 60 minutes of ice time during five-on-five play, which is down considerably from his previous marks with the Penguins (8.8 in 2017-18, 8.6 in 2016-17, 9.7 in 2015-16). He's also struggling more with turnovers, with 2.6 giveaways per 60 minutes (2.3 last year, 2.0 in 2016-17 and 2.5 in 2015-16). A guy who usually confidently sprints down the ice and challenges goalies with a perfectly timed snap shot or wrister is playing more tentatively, looking for the perfect pass and sometimes losing the puck in the process.
Luckily, Phil seems to be finding his five-on-five game. After practically running away from the puck in February, he's ripping off plenty of shots this month:
Kessel's five-on-five Corsi is 49.6 percent in March, which is his best mark since October (51 percent). He's also helping the Penguins generate 55.5 percent of scoring chances (a season best) and 61.5 percent of high-danger scoring chances (ditto). And he's ripping off those shots and creating chances while being more responsible with the puck (1.9 giveaways per 60 minutes).
Kessel, to no one's surprise, has remained a monster on the power play. With 34 man-advantage points, Kessel leads the Penguins and ranks behind only Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, Keith Yandle, Brayden Point and Mike Hoffman among all NHL players (Nathan MacKinnon also has 34 points). At even strength, though, he has been invisible at times. If you're an optimist, Kessel's process--shots taken, scoring chances created, turnovers averted--have been much better down the stretch. Now, it's just a matter of Phil burying that first five-on-five goal in nearly two full months.
PENGUINS
• Corsi champ: The Penguins need more offensive production from their role players if they're going to do anything more than make a first-round playoff exit. Depending on your perspective, Dominik Simon is either a candidate to break out and start providing that secondary scoring...or another forward who isn't pulling his weight. When he's on the ice in five-on-five situations, the Penguins unleash 55 percent of total shots (second best on the team, behind Sidney Crosby) and generate 59.4 percent of scoring chances (he's the leader in the locker room there). And yet, Simon is averaging just 0.12 goals and 0.41 points per game. His 7.2 shooting percentage is down from last year (11.1 percent in 2017-18), and ranks 348th among NHL skaters who have appeared in at least 40 games. So, is Simon unlucky or just lacking that ability to finish? According to the advanced numbers on the OffsideReview website, Simon could stand to be more dangerous with his shot selection. The site keeps track of an expected goals, which estimates how many times a player should score based on shot quality (including distance, angle and game situation). Simon has eight actual goals, and 9.5 expected goals. He has been a little unlucky, but could also benefit by taking more high-percentage cracks at the goalie.
• Six-on-five struggles: When opposing clubs pull the goalie for an extra attacker or get a delayed penalty, there's reason for Penguins fans to get nervous. Pittsburgh has surrendered seven goals in six-on-five situations in 2018-19, which is tied with the Maple Leafs and Capitals for the fourth-highest total among NHL teams. Only Detroit, New Jersey and Chicago (eight apiece) have allowed more. Last year, the Penguins gave up two goals in such situations (the second-lowest total among all clubs). The Penguins were stingy during their Stanley Cup-winning seasons, too, allowing six total six-on-five goals in 2015-16 and 2016-17 (ninth-lowest in the NHL).
PIRATES
• Moran doesn't fit: Fourteen months ago, Colin Moran was considered to be the centerpiece of the five-player deal that shipped Gerrit Cole to the Houston Astros. Now, as Cole looks to build upon a near-Cy Young Award-worthy season, Moran enters 2019 as a bench bat and first baseman-in-training who might not have a future in Pittsburgh. Jung Ho Kang grabbed hold of the third base job after a near two-year absence, and consensus top-75 prospect Ke'Bryan Hayes is closing in on the majors while offering stellar defense and stealth power. In 2018, Moran's park and league-adjusted On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS) was just five percent above the overall MLB average. The standard for MLB third basemen was ten percent above average, and it was 12 percent above average for first basemen. Considering Moran's defensive struggles and slow-as-molasses base running, he has to step it up offensively. Compounding matters, Moran is decent against right-handed pitching (with a career adjusted OPS that's eight percent above the MLB average) but terrible versus lefties (42 percent below average). The guys that Moran might spell at the infield corners are better against right-handers. Kang's career adjusted OPS against right-handers is 35 percent above average, compared to seven percent above average versus lefties. Josh Bell's adjusted OPS is 15 percent above average when taking on righties, and four percent below average against lefties. Moran just doesn't fit on this roster--in 2019 or beyond.
• Shortstop D: Erik Gonzalez hasn't done much to inspire confidence in his offensive game this spring, but the Pirates' starting shortstop entering 2019 might at least bring a little more range in the field than the man he replaced. Jordy Mercer was a quality defensive shortstop in his twenties, but his performance tailed off badly in recent years. In 2018, he cost the Pirates nine runs compared to an average defensive shortstop, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved metric. That ranked 18th in the majors among 22 qualified shortstops. Gonzalez, meanwhile, is projected to save about four runs compared to an average defender at his position, per Fangraphs' Depth Charts projection system. That would represent a swing of more than one win in the standings for the Pirates. If Gonzalez can stop swinging at everything thrown his way, he could be a passable option in the short-term.
• Letting them off the hook: If Chris Archer is going to excel in 2019--and justify the bounty of young talent that the Pirates surrendered to the Tampa Bay Rays to acquire him--then he's going to have to do a better job of burying hitters once he's ahead in the count. Last season, Archer allowed an adjusted opponent OPS that was 40 percent worse than the MLB average once he had the ball-strike advantage, according to Baseball Reference. In fact, Archer's adjusted OPS when ahead in the count ranked 110th out of 130 MLB pitchers in 2018 (minimum 150 at-bats when ahead in the count). That's shocking, considering Archer's career OPS when ahead of hitters is 61 percent better than average.
STEELERS
• Is Barron an upgrade? The Steelers' linebackers, while adept at rushing the passer, were frequently exposed in pass coverage in 2018. It makes sense, then, that the club signed Mark Barron to a two-year, $12 million free agent deal. Or, at least it does in theory. The former Los Angeles Ram converted from safety to linebacker a few years ago, and brings the kind of hybrid build (6-foot-2, 230 pounds) that we're seeing more often as defenses adapt to a more passing-centric game. But Barron received a pass coverage grade of just 54 on Pro Football Focus' 0-100 player grade scale. That was about the same as the guy he will presumably replace in the starting lineup, Jon Bostic (his pass coverage grade was 56). As an undersized linebacker, Barron also struggled in the running game. His run defense grade was 55, compared to Bostic's 63, per PFF. Steelers scouts and statisticians must feel otherwise.
• Relying on the Vanimal: The Steelers' tight ends were prolific in 2018, combining for 86 catches and 1,119 receiving yards. But, with Jesse James striking it rich with the Detroit Lions in free agency, Pittsburgh may have to lean more on Vance McDonald next season. Talent-wise, McDonald is up for the job. Among tight ends who were targeted at least 50 times last season, he ranked seventh in catch rate (69.4 percent) and eighth in yards per reception (12.2). McDonald's catch rate was the highest of his career, and well above his 58.3 percent rate during his first year with the Steelers in 2017. He was a decent blocker, too, receiving a low-70s grade in both pass and run blocking on Pro Football Focus' 0-100 player grade scale. The major question with McDonald will be, can he hold up physically? He appeared in a career-high 15 games last year and started 14. His career averages were 11.6 games and 7.4 starts per season during the 2013-17 campaigns.
• Ben's bad decisions? There's no disputing that Ben Roethlisberger, who led the NFL with 16 interceptions last season, threw some infuriating picks in big situations. But was Ben really all that reckless compared to other QBs? Not really. Roethlisberger attempted 675 passes in 2018, which was an NFL high by a wide margin (Andrew Luck was second, at 639). On a per-pass basis, he wasn't especially interception-prone. Roethlisberger threw an interception on 2.4 percent of his total passes last year, which was a middle-of-the pack 18th among QBs and was actually below his career average (2.7). NFL Next Gen Stats keeps track of a measure called Aggressiveness Percentage, which accounts for how often a QB attempts a pass in which the nearest defender is within one yard of the receiver at the time of the completion or incompletion. Basically, it ranks how often a passer chances it and makes a throw into tight coverage. Roethlisberger threw aggressive passes 16.7 percent of the time, which was the 17th-highest rate among qualified QBs. Bottom line: When you practically abandon the running game like the Steelers did at times in 2018, you're going to throw more picks. Ben didn't suddenly lose his mind and start making lots of ill-advised throws.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Record-setting cash: There's a reason why the Los Angeles Angels signed Mike Trout to a 12-year, $426.5 million extension that represents the largest contract in pro sports history: He might be the best young baseball player that we have ever seen. Consider this: Through his age-26 season, Trout has been worth 64.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), according to Baseball Reference. WAR measures a player's total batting, fielding, and base running value compared to the type of player who hits the waiver wire. That's the highest WAR total through age 26 in big league history, just beating out the likes of Ty Cobb (63.4), Mickey Mantle (61.4), Rogers Hornsby (56.9) and Alex Rodriguez (55.2). Trout's WAR already nearly matches that of the average Hall of Fame position player (69). In case you're wondering, the largest contract in Pirates history is still Jason Kendall's six-year, $60 million deal signed in the fall of 2000. In present-day dollars, that's about $88.6 million--or about one-fifth of Trout's megadeal.
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