Stats 'N' At: Iron gloves, playoffs, Artie's future taken in Downtown (Penguins)

MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

From Colin Moran plodding around left field due to an injury-related roster crisis, to shortstops committing errors by the handful, to botched rundowns and passed balls, the Pirates' defensive shortcomings have been on full display so far in 2019. They rank 22nd in the majors in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), a metric that compares a fielder's performance to that of an average player at his position based on factors like range, sure-handedness, turning double plays (for infielders) and arm accuracy. They have been -3 runs worse than average during this young season, continuing a troubling trend that has played a major role in the team missing the playoffs over the past several years.

For Buctober to return, the Pirates have to turn it around defensively.

During their three-year stretch of playoff appearances from 2013-2015, the Pirates were consistently excellent on defense. Collectively, they saved +136 runs compared to an average-fielding team over that time frame. That was third in the majors over that stretch, trailing only the Diamondbacks (+185) and Royals (+180). A win accounts for about ten runs, so the Pirates gained nearly 14 victories in three seasons with stellar glovework.

Since then, Pittsburgh has been one of the worst defensive clubs in the majors. From 2016-2019, the Pirates have been -31 runs worse than an average-fielding team. Things got really ugly last year (-36 DRS, 24th in the majors). If you break down the team's defensive decline by position, there are a few spots that became a glaring weakness:

The middle-of-the-diamond spots (catcher, shortstop, center field) and right field have been the biggest sore spots during the team's playoff drought. Andrew McCutchen didn't have much range during his late Pirates tenure, but the center field problem has been solved by Starling Marte (+11 DRS in center since the start of 2018) manning that spot. Corey Dickerson, the team's replacement for Marte in left, has been stunningly good (+16 DRS in 2018) after garnering a reputation as a DH-worthy fielder during his early career. Erik Gonzalez and/or Kevin Newman were supposed to be a defensive upgrade over Jordy Mercer at shortstop, but you wouldn't know it by their error-prone ways thus far. It's possible that a slightly older, bulkier Gregory Polanco doesn't cover as much ground as he used to in right field. Adam Frazier looks passable at second base, while Josh Bell (-8 DRS in 2018) needs work at first. We don't have much to go on with Jung Ho Kang at third base, but it's hard to believe he won't be an improvement over Moran (-8 DRS in 2018).

The most interesting case might be catcher. Francisco Cervelli was superb during his season with the Pirates, saving +8 runs compared to an average backstop in 2015. His pitch framing (the ability to steal strikes on borderline strike zone pitches) was worth +21 runs that year. Cervelli excelled in 2016, too (+6 DRS, +12 framing runs). But since then, it has been a struggle. He was -6 runs worse than average in 2017 with -4 framing runs, and -6 runs below average with -8 framing runs in 2018. His complement, Elias Diaz, hasn't been any better (-5 DRS, -9 framing runs during his MLB career).

One of the main story lines entering 2019 was whether the Pirates could score enough runs to support a high-quality starting rotation. But there's another important, unanswered question: Even if they do show some life offensively, will their lack of leather prevent a return to the playoffs?

MORE PIRATES

Ring your bell: Josh Bell, coming off a 2018 season during which he hit an underwhelming 12 home runs, has decided to go all Willie Stargell on pitchers in 2019. His average exit velocity on balls put in play so far is 94.8 mph. How good is that? His career average is 88.9 mph, and the overall MLB average is 87.4 mph. Bell has the 14th-highest exit velocity among all MLB hitters who have put at least ten balls in play in 2019, outpacing the likes of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout among many others. Clearly, there's some thump in Bell's bat.

• Bullpen blowups: The Pirates' bullpen, which figured to be a strength entering the 2019 season, has faltered so far. Pittsburgh ranks 24th in the majors in Win Probability Added (WPA). WPA measures the change in a team's chances of winning a game from one plate appearance to the next. Players receive extra credit for boosting their club's odds of victory in high-leverage situations (think punching out a batter with runners on base in a close, late-inning game) and get docked for surrendering runs when the pressure is on. Only the Braves, White Sox, Reds, Nationals, Royals and Cubs have featured a more meltdown-prone bullpen. Last year, the Pirates ranked a solid 14th in WPA. The relief corps could certainly still end up being an asset over the course of the season, but it's off to a lousy start.

PENGUINS

• Playoff dominance: In case all of the banners hanging from the rafters and parties in Point State Park aren't enough of a reminder, here's a refresher on how dominant some of the Penguins' best players have been in playoff history. Among players with 50+ career playoff games during he Modern Era (1967 to present), Sidney Crosby ranks eighth all-time in points per game (1.16). Evgeni Malkin (1.04) ranks 19th, and Phil Kessel (0.9) is tied for 59th. And, by the way, Matt Murray places tied for 22nd all-time among goalies meeting the same criteria in adjusted goals allowed. Once accounting for the offensive environment in which he has played. Murray has surrendered eight percent fewer goals than an average net minder in the playoffs.

• Maatta the odd man out? With the Penguins getting healthier on the blue line, it's time to start wondering about Olli Maatta's short and long-term future with the club. In addition to missing time with a shoulder injury, Maatta turned in what might be the worst season of his six-year career. With Maatta skating during five-on-five play, the Penguins are generating just 45.9 percent of total shots (his rate was 51.8 percent in 2017-18) and 48 percent of scoring chances (49.7 percent last year). Among Penguins who have logged at least 200 minutes of five-on-five ice time, he ranks 22nd out of 27 in shot share and scoring chance rate. Maatta also finished the regular season with 0.22 points per game, which is down from 0.35 in 2017-18 and is the second-lowest rate of his career (he totaled 0.13 points per game in 2016-17). Maatta showed some offensive skill and had strong puck possession stats as a player in his teens and early twenties, which convinced the Penguins to sign him to a long-term deal. Now, the team is tasked with either rebuilding his game (and putting him in spots where his lack of speed is minimized), or trying to convince another club to assume his $4 million per year salary through the 2021-22 season.

• Nothing to fear: Matt Murray has undeniably been playing out of his mind as of late. But on the whole, the Penguins have also done a far better job of not hanging their franchise goalie out to dry. Since the beginning of February, the Penguins have allowed Murray to face 7.1 high-danger shots per 60 minutes during five-on-five play. Higher-danger shots are ones that have the highest chance of becoming a goal, based on shot location, shot type, and odd-man rush situations. That's the eighth-lowest rate among goalies with 500+ minutes of five-on-five ice time during that period. From October through January, Pittsburgh allowed Murray to face 9.2 higher-danger shots per 60 minutes. That was the sixth-highest rate among net minder. Murray has done his part by raising his high-danger save rate from .812 from October-January (24th among goalies) to .887 since the beginning of February (fourth-best).

STEELERS

• YAC master: No one's going to confuse Donte Moncrief with Antonio Brown, but the Steelers' newly-signed free agent receiver does show a knack for extending plays and gaining extra yardage. In 2018, Moncrief ranked 11th among all NFL receivers (including tight ends) in Yards After Catch Above Expectation (YAC+/-). Basically, YAC +/- measures the difference between a receiver's actual yards after the catch and his expected YAC, based on factors that include his separation from defenders, his speed, and the number of defenders around him. Moncrief gained an extra +1.3 yards after the catch compared to what he would have been expected to gain. Only George Kittle (+3.2 YAC +/-), D.J. Moore (+3), Josh Gordon (+3), Evan Ingram (+2.9), Vance McDonald (+2.1), O.J. Howard (+2), Marquise Goodwin (+2), Amari Cooper (+2), Dante Pettis (+1.9) and Quincy Enuwa (+1.5) exceeded expectations more after the catch.

• Old School: At one time, the notion of a quarterback in his late thirties remaining in the league--much less playing at a pretty high level and in line to receive a $25+ million per year contract extension--would have been crazy. But Ben Roethlisberger is part of a growing list of QBs who have defied that stereotype. In fact, you can make a case that Roethlisberger is having the best late-stage career of any Steeler during the post-merger era (1970). Ben has compiled the highest Approximate Value (AV) after turning 30 among any Steelers player. AV is a Pro Football Reference stat that attempts to measure the value of players across different positions and eras. His 90 AV beats out the likes of James Harrison (81), James Farrior (69), Mike Webster (68) and Terry Bradshaw (64). Guess the old cowboy does still have it.

• Can Burns be salvaged? Cornerback Artie Burns turned in a brutal 2018 season--so bad that the 2016 first-round pick is on the fringes of the depth chart entering next year. But it is worth remembering that the soon-to-be-24-year-old was a pretty decent corner as recently as 2017. According to the Player Profiler website, Burns ranked fourth among all cornerbacks in catch rate allowed in 2017 (44.6 percent), fifth in yards allowed per target (5.6) and 11th in passer rating allowed (65.6). Last year was an absolute nightmare (he allowed a 60.7 percent catch rate, 8.6 yards per target and a Marino-like 128 passer rating), but that physical talent is still there. No one's counting on him, but maybe Burns can revive his faltering NFL career in 2019.

THE NATIONAL TREND

• Lacking Action: Major League Baseball can shorten inning breaks, limit mound visits, cut down on relief pitching changes and experiment with pitch clocks. But here's one fundamental challenge to picking up the pace of play and making the game more action-packed: Fewer and fewer balls are being put in play. MLB hitters have struck out 22.9 percent of the time so far in 2019, which would shatter the single-season high set last year (22.3 percent of plate appearances). They're also drawing a walk in 9.4 percent of trips to the plate, which is up from 8.5 percent in 2018 and ranks just outside the top ten single-season high totals in MLB history. Overall, 35.7 percent of plate appearances in 2019 are ending in one of the "three true outcomes"--a strikeout, walk or a home run. If that holds up, it will crush the single-season high of 33.7 percent set last year.

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Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.

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