The story surrounding the 2019 Pirates was supposed to be this: top-notch pitching, possibly undone by an underpowered lineup. Through mid-April, that story has played out--and been turned up to 11. Collectively, Pittsburgh's pitching staff (starters and relievers) has the second-best park and league-adjusted ERA in the league (64 percent better than the overall MLB average). The offense, on the other hand, ranks 21st in the majors in adjusted On-Base-Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS+). The Pirates have been 14 percent worse than average with the lumber.
No player has personified those offensive woes more than Jung Ho Kang.
After a nearly two-year absence from MLB due to DUI and visa-related issues, Kang managed to win back the third base job from Colin Moran by throttling pitchers during spring training. Down in Bradenton, he hit seven home runs and slugged .773. It looked like he was poised to pick up where he left off in the majors, having posted an adjusted OPS that was 26 percent better than the MLB average over the 2015-16 seasons.
Instead, Kang looks lost. His adjusted OPS is 87 percent below average during the early days of the 2019 season, which is tied for 230th among the 241 MLB players who have at least 40 plate appearances. Rather than continuing his spring training slugging, he has a triple-slash line (.105 average/.190 OBP/.237 slugging) that looks much like the one produced by Pirates pitchers (.133/.188/.133). Why has Kang struggled so badly, and how can he turn it around? Here's a quick breakdown.
• His pitch recognition is off. Compared to years past, Kang is chasing more pitches off the plate and laying off more hittable pitches thrown within the strike zone. According to Fangraphs, he has chased 29.4 percent of pitches thrown outside of the zone in 2019. That's up from Kang's career 25.5 percent average and matches the overall MLB average. His in-zone swing rate has declined to just 54.6 percent, compared to his 59.7 percent career average and the 66.8 percent MLB average. With Kang swinging at would-be balls and taking strikes, he's falling behind in the count. During his MLB career, Kang has gotten ahead in the count in 34.8 percent of his plate appearances. This season, he has jumped ahead in the count just 23.8 percent of the time.
• He's whiffing--a lot. Kang has struck out in 38.1 percent of his plate appearances, which is the seventh-highest rate in the majors among hitters with 40+ plate appearances. His career K rate is just 22 percent. In addition to taking too many called strikes, Kang's swinging strike rate has spiked to 14.8 percent (9.8 percent career average). Kang is whiffing 52% of the time versus curveballs and sliders, according to MLB StatCast, compared to about 30 percent when he was tearing up the league in 2015-16.
• When he does make contact, it's with a whimper. During his previous MLB run, Kang typically crushed pitches. His average exit velocity on balls put in play is 90.2 mph during his career--nearly three mph above the overall big league average. In 2019, Kang's average exit velocity is down nearly two mph. His hard-hit rate (balls put in play at 95+ mph) is 18.2 percent. That's about half of his career average (35.9 percent) and is one of the worst rates among MLB batters with 40+ plate appearances. You might recognize a few of the other guys in the top (bottom?) five:
Pirates batters haven't put much of a sting into the ball, with just 25.8 percent of pitches put in play being classified as hard-hit. That's dead last in the majors, and down from last year's already-low rate of 32.1 percent of hard-hit balls (24th in MLB).
It's just mid-April, and it should hardly come as a surprise that a player who hasn't seen MLB-caliber pitching in two years has struggled mightily. But Kang's juggernaut spring training performance raised expectations that he might be the exception. The starting rotation can't do it all. The offense--Kang especially--needs to pick it up.
MORE PIRATES
• Meeting (lofty) expectations: Many expected the Pirates' starting rotation to be the biggest strength of the club in 2019. But so far, these guys have been even better than expected. Once you adjust for park and league factors, the Pirates' rotation has allowed 54 percent fewer runs than the MLB average. Only the Tampa Bay Rays (66 percent better than average), due in large part to former Pirate Tyler Glasnow getting re-acquainted with the strike zone, have been better. It would be crazy to expect Pittsburgh's starters to remain this good throughout the season. If they did, though, it would go down as arguably the greatest collective performance in franchise history. The current record holder in terms of adjusted ERA is the 1901 Pirates, whose starting rotation was 32 percent above average. Many of the team's best adjusted ERAs occurred when Teddy Roosevelt, William Taft or Woodrow Wilson was president. Only one of the club's 15 best years in adjusted ERA by the starting rotation happened during the Expansion Era (1961-president). That was the 1984 staff, at 15 percent above average.
• Expanding the zone: One major reason that Pirates pitchers have succeeded in keeping runs off the board is that they're getting opposing batters to go fishing. Collectively, Pirates pitchers have induced hitters into swinging at 32.5 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, according to Fangraphs. That's the highest rate among all MLB teams, and represents an improvement over last year's mark of 30.4 percent (17th in the majors). Trevor Williams (36.5 percent chase rate), Joe Musgrove (34.5 percent) and Jameson Taillon (33.5 percent) have done the best job of enticing hitters into swinging at pitches located off the plate.
PENGUINS
• Lost connection: During the regular season, the top-line pairing of Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel was incredible. While skating together in five-on-five situations, those two helped the Penguins generate 55 percent of total shots taken, 56.9 percent of scoring chances and 66.7 percent of goals. Other teams didn't stand a chance. Against the Islanders in the opening round of the playoffs, though? That chemistry evaporated. With Crosby and Guentzel together during the playoffs, the Penguins generated 46.8 percent of total shots, 42.2 percent of scoring chances and 40.5 percent of goals. These guys went from performing like high-level stars who complemented each other perfectly to producing like fourth-liners. There's no reason to think they won't be awesome if paired together again in 2019-20, but the downturn has really hurt the Penguins during the postseason.
• Dangerous defense: If it seems like the Penguins are playing too lose in the playoffs, you're on to something. According to Natural Stat Trick, Pittsburgh has surrendered the most scoring chances against per 60 minutes of five-on-five play (33.7) among all playoff teams. They have also given up the third-most high-danger chances--those with the best odds of becoming a goal for the opponent based on shot type location, shot type, and odd-man scoring chances--at 13.5. During the regular season, the Penguins allowed 25.6 scoring chances against (13th in the NHL) and 10.6 high-danger chances (12th-lowest).
• Mixed returns: After suffering a gruesome leg injury during the early portion of the 2018-19 campaign, it's amazing that Justin Schultz is even on the ice--much less having averaged a half-point per game during the regular season. But while Schultz has ended up on the score sheet often, he hasn't entirely returned to form when it comes to controlling the puck and preventing chances for the other team. Schultz has committed 2.8 giveaways per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time this year (1.5 in 2017-18). With him skating, the Pens have allowed 36.1 shots against per 60 minutes (32.2 last season) and 28.6 scoring chances (28.3 in '17-'18). With more giveaways and less D, Schultz's five-on-five shot share has dipped from 49.8 percent last season to 45.3 percent in '18-'19.
STEELERS
• More targets for RBs, TEs: In a post-Antonio Brown landscape, expect QB Ben Roethlisberger to show some more love to his running backs and tight ends. During the 2018 season, the Steelers threw the highest rate of passes (66 percent) to wide receivers, according to Sharp Football Stats. They averaged just 7.3 yards per pass attempt to wide outs, which ranked 25th among NFL teams. When targeting running backs and tight ends, however, Pittsburgh excelled. Running backs were targeted on 16 percent of total passes (17th in the NFL), but gained 6.8 yards per attempt (sixth at the position). Tight ends were targeted 18 percent (ninth in the NFL), and averaged 9.3 yards per target (third among all teams). James Conner, Jaylen Samuels and Vance McDonald may need to carry an even bigger load next year to keep the Steelers' offense humming.
• Attacking the middle: If you're looking for more proof that teams considered the Steelers' linebackers and safeties vulnerable in pass coverage, consider this: opponents targeted Pittsburgh with an NFL-high 155 passes to the short middle of the field, and an NFL-high 39 times to the deep middle of the field, according to the NFL Savant website. That's why the Steelers signed converted safety Mark Barron to play inside linebacker, drafted safety Terrell Edmunds in the first round in 2018, and might draft another inside 'backer high in the draft later this month.
• Nothing special: While the Steelers won't necessarily target the unit on draft day (at least not in the early rounds), you've got to think that the team hopes to land a couple of contributors who can improve a special teams corps that was wretched in 2018. Last season, Pittsburgh ranked 17th in the NFL in punt return average (8.1 yards), 31st in kick return average (19.3) and had the worst average starting field position (their own 26 yard line) among all teams. The Steelers also allowed an NFL-worst 14.4 yards per punt return and committed a league-high 27 penalties. And we all know of kicker Chris Boswell's struggles. About the only thing that the special teams did well was defend kick returns (20.8 yard return average, tied for fourth-best in the league).
THE NATIONAL TREND
• A scoring resurgence: After some low-octane, neutral zone-clogging seasons, the NHL has experienced a goal scoring renaissance. Overall, teams averaged 3.01 goals per game during the 2018-19 regular season. That's the highest per-game rate since the 2005-06 season (3.08) and compares to the 2.7 to 2.8 range that the league had been stuck at for most of the past decade. This year's scoring rate is the fourth-highest over the past 25 seasons, trailing only the 1993-94 campaign (3.24 goals per game), 1995-96 (3.14), and '05-'06. Teams unleashed an average of 31.3 shots this year, which ranks behind only the 2017-18 season (31.8) for the highest rate over the past quarter-century.
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