The Pirates' starting rotation entered 2019 with serious hype, and has somehow managed to not only justify that praise but suggest they could be even better than we thought. As a whole, Pirates starters rank second in MLB in ERA (2.24). They're third in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP, a more accurate way to measure performance based on strikeouts, walks and homers allowed) at 3.24, and tied with Tampa Bay for second with 2.9 Wins Above Replacement (WAR, a measure of how valuable a player is compared to the kind of guy who's available on the waiver wire). It's not shocking to see Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Trevor Williams and Joe Musgrove succeeding.
But Jordan Lyles? The guy who entered 2019 with a career 5.28 ERA in more than 750 innings pitched? How in the name of A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano and Edinson Volquez does that guy have a 0.53 ERA? A scrapheap free agent sign over the winter (one year, $2.05 million), Lyles has carried over the gains that he made in late 2018 by changing his style. He is a totally different kind of pitcher than when he got lit up in Houston, Colorado and San Diego.
For most of his career, Lyles relied upon a 92-93 mph sinker and a high-80s slider. He threw his sinker more than 25 percent of the time entering this season, and threw his slider about 17 percent. The results were, frankly, awful. For every 100 pitches thrown, Lyles' sinker has been -0.54 runs worse than the MLB average, according to Fangraphs. His slider has also been -0.54 runs below average per 100 pitches.
Last year, though, Lyles seemingly had an epiphany upon being traded to the Brewers. Rather than continuing to toss mediocre sinkers and sliders--pitches with little separation in velocity, and in the case of the sinker, a pitch that has fallen out of favor league-wide as players embrace upper cut swings--Lyles adapted. He started throwing more four-seam fastballs and curveballs, and that new approach produced 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings pitched and a 2.49 FIP with Milwaukee out of the bullpen.
The Pirates saw enough in Lyles, and believed enough in his transformation, that they signed him to fill the fifth starter's spot. He has stayed true to his new approach, throwing sinkers just 12.7 percent of the time and sliders just 3.6 percent. Lyles has thrown his 92-93 mph four-seam fastball about 40 percent of the time this season, and his low-80s curveball 30.4 percent. His curveball has been solid (+0.13 runs better than average per 100 pitches thrown). But his fastball? It has been one of the league's most dominant offerings:
Lyles' four-seamer has been about +3.5 runs above average per 100 pitches thrown. That's better than the rate produced by Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole, just to cherry-pick the stats of a few aces. Lyles' four-seamer doesn't have elite velocity or an elite spin rate. But his new pitch mix--four-seamers unleashed high in the strike zone, and 12-to-6 curveballs that drop below hitters' knees--is working. Batters have a .111 batting average against Lyles' four-seamer, according to MLB Statcast, and it's not a total fluke. Statcast shows that the expected batting average on the pitch--based on factors like velocity, location, spin rate, and exit velocity--is just .166. Batters have a .235 average versus his curve, and just a .179 expected batting average. The bottom line? Lyles' four-seamer/curveball combo has been legitimately wicked.
With a new approach and another chance to start, Lyles has ripped off three dominant outings to begin the 2019 season. He has 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings, while walking 2.65 per nine and surrendering 0.5 home runs. His 2.60 FIP ranks 16th among qualified MLB starters. It's far too early to say that the Pirates stole a high-level starter for peanuts on the free agent market. Lyles has to prove that he can navigate lineups multiple times over the long haul, and remain durable enough to keep taking the mound. But the changes that Lyles made in his pitch arsenal offer reason for optimism. With his career on the brink, Lyles reinvented himself. The Pirates, shrewd enough to see the difference and dream that he could do it every fifth day, are enjoying the spoils.
MORE PIRATES
• Replacement outfielders: With Gregory Polanco just returning from shoulder surgery, Corey Dickerson out with a shoulder ailment, Lonnie Chisenhall working his way back from a broken finger, and Starling Marte out with core/quad problems, the Pirates' outfield is basically being held together with rubber bands and Big League Chew. Melky Cabrera, JB Shuck and Jason Martin are mosly struggling to fill the void. Cabrera's park and league-adjusted On-Base-Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS+) is four percent below average. Shuck's OPS+ is 86 (14 percent below average) and Martin's is 92. For comparison's sake, Dickerson and Polanco both had a 118 OPS+ in 2018, and Marte's was 113.
• Kela's command off: Keone Kela's turbulent start to the 2019 season shows that pure stuff alone isn't enough to retire batters. Sure, the former Texas Rangers closer is still sitting at 96 mph with his fastball and snapping off power curveballs. But his pitch location has been poor, and opponents are making him pay. During his MLB career, Kela has thrown 8.3 percent of his pitches to the middle-middle portion of the strike zone. That's slightly about the 7.3 MLB average. MLB Statcast classifies these pitches as "meatballs," because batters tend to gobble them up and deposit them in the outfield gaps or over the fence. In 2019, Kela has thrown meatballs 12 percent of the time. He has thrown 42.6 percent of his career pitches to the corners of the strike zone. Pitches thrown to the corners tend to produce weaker contact, and more called strikes. The big league average is 42.7 percent. This season, Kela's painting the corners just 34.7 percent of the time. Kela's power is there, but he's lacking precision.
PENGUINS
• Wild Letang: For all of his offensive brilliance, Kris Letang also possesses a reckless side that causes him to go all hero mode at times. In those moments, he would go one-on-five and like his odds. And too often during the 2018-19 playoffs, he fell prey to those instincts. Letang committed 5.6 giveaways per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time against the Islanders, compared to 2.2 giveaways per 60 during the regular season. Only Matt Cullen (7.2 giveaways per 60) and Evgeni Malkin (5.7) coughed up the puck more frequently in even-strength situations during the playoffs. No team committed more giveaways than the Penguins (74) during the first round of the playoffs--and that was while playing just four games. Commence the "can/should Letang change his style?" debate.
• Five-on-five decline: One reason why the Penguins are cleaning out lockers in Cranberry is that they have become entirely too dependent on their power play. While Pittsburgh tied the Bruins for the most short-handed goals allowed (15), they still converted on the power play 24.6 percent of the time (fifth-best). During five-on-five play, though, they were downright pedestrian. The Penguins generated only 49.7 percent of total shots in even-strength situations this past year, which ranked 15th in the league. For comparison's sake, Pittsburgh ranked fifth in the NHL in even-strength shot share in 2017-18 (52.3 percent), 16th in 2016-17 (50.1 percent) and second in 2015-16 (52.7 percent). Being so power play-dependent is also a problem when you get so few opportunities. The Penguins had just 228 power play opportunities in 2018-19, which ranked 21st in the league.
• A tale of two blue lines: General manager Jim Rutherford thinks that the Penguins have the best defensive corps of his tenure in Pittsburgh. From a puck possession standpoint, the Penguins do have some of the best in the game--but also some of the worst. Hockey Reference features a stat called Relative Corsi For Percentage. It measures the difference in a team's shots generated and allowed when a particular player is skating, compared to when he's on the bench. A positive number means that a player positively influences his team's ability to generate and suppress shots. A negative number means he's a drag on his team's puck possession game. Despite his wild tendencies, Letang ranked second among all NHL defensemen who logged 40+ games in Relative Corsi For (+6.8 percent, behind just Erik Karlsson's +7.6 percent). Brian Dumoulin ranked 17th at +4.1 percent, and Marcus Pettersson placed tied for 25th at +3.5 percent. On the opposite side of the spectrum, Olli Maatta ranked 172nd (-4.3 percent) and Jack Johnson was 187th (-5.6 percent) out of 196 defensemen who had 40+ games. Erik Gudbranson was mostly a drag, too (-4.1, 168th), though he turned it around in Pittsburgh (+5.5 percent, compared to -7.4 percent in Vancouver). For those of you playing capologist at home, those last three will make nearly $12 million combined next season.
STEELERS
• If you were a betting man...: What's in store for the 2019 Steelers? Will a team that lost two generational offensive talents over the past two years fall to the middle or back of the NFL pack, while Baker Mayfield and the Browns rule the AFC North? Or will they, as one hyper-irrating national talking head said, be ultra-motivated and will themselves to a 13-3 season? The Steelers' haul from the upcoming NFL Draft will play a significant role in answering that question, but let's check in on Vegas. According tot the Odds Shark website, Pittsburgh has the 13th-best odds of winning the Super Bowl. The over/under on their 2019 win total is nine. If you follow the money, people think the Steelers are headed for another season where they're on the fringes of playoff contention.
• Traveling men: The NFL recently unveiled 2019 schedules, with the Steelers' slate of games highlighted by a prime-time, opening-week contest with the Patriots. There are some serious challenges ahead--including a quick turnaround from a Thursday game with the reigning NFC champion Rams to a matchup with the Browns, and five of Pittsburgh's last seven games happening on the road--but their travel itinerary isn't too bad compared to that of other teams. The Steelers will travel a total of 15,140 miles during the 2019 season, according to The Score, which ranks 16th among NFL clubs. That's up modestly from 2017, when the Steelers traveled 13,180 miles (19th in the league). Hopefully Antonio Brown can still Instagram at altitude, considering that the Raiders will travel an NFL-high 35,308 miles. Le'Veon Bell and the not-so-aptly-named Jets have the easiest schedule travel-wise, with a total of 6,794 miles.
• A Rogers Return? Wide receiver Eli Rogers enters 2019 with his NFL future on the line. The 26-year-old went from being Ben Roethlisberger's security blanket as a rookie back in 2016, to suddenly coming down with a case of the drops and then tearing his ACL. As a rookie, Rogers was ultra-reliable. His 72.7 percent catch rate ranked tenth among all NFL receivers who were targeted at least 50 times. He averaged a solid 12.4 yards per reception. During 2017-18, Rogers caught just 60 percent of passes and averaged 7.6 yards per reception. If he's fully healthy and hasn't lost any speed, Rogers could surprise. If not, he might be pondering a future in the XFL.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Powering up: If you're attending or tuning in to an MLB game in 2019, expect fireworks. Teams are hitting an average of 1.35 home runs per game this season, which would represent a new all-time single-season high in MLB history if that pace continues. The current single-season high was set in 2017 (1.27). It's especially noteworthy that teams are on pace to make home run history in April. Typically, home runs are harder to come by this time of year, considering the low temperatures and wet weather. Even during that homer-happy 2017 season, clubs went deep 1.18 times per game in April. If home runs are this easy to come by right now, what happens temperatures rise and the ball starts to travel even better?
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Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
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