ARLINGTON, TEXAS -- The Pirates have completed one-sixth of their schedule.
That is not a large enough sample size to draw any firm conclusions. However, 28 games provide the opportunity to make some observations.
Here are five of mine after watching the Pirates go 14-14 through those 28 games, following a two-game sweep of a series against the Rangers that ended Wednesday at Globe Life Park:
• One didn’t have to be a baseball savant to realize that a potentially strong starting rotation was the primary reason why the Pirates had at least a chance of contending this season in the strong National League Central.
Nothing has changed in that regard. The Pirates don’t score many runs. Thus, the starters are going to have to do all they can to keep the team in games.
They have done a good job of that. The rotation’s 3.19 ERA in second-best in the major leagues behind the Rays’ 2.67. That the Pirates are just .500 despite that performance only serves to illustrate how much the starters matter.
Joe Musgrove has been outstanding, pitching at least six innings in each of his five starts while posting a sparkling 1.54 ERA. While generally considered the Pirates’ fourth starter, I really believe he will be looked upon as the staff ace by the end of the season.
The big right-hander possesses the attributes you want in a top-of-the-rotation pitcher. He has great competitiveness, terrific athleticism and very good stuff – his fastball will eventually regain the few ticks of velocity lost to his abdominal surgery in the offseason.
Jameson Taillon has been so-so after entering the season as the de facto ace, but there is clear upside there. Allowing five runs to the Dodgers in five innings last Sunday aside, Trevor Williams keeps proving he is a reliable starter who gives his team a chance to win almost every time he pitches. Jordan Lyles has been a serviceable fifth starter, which is all the Pirates wanted when they signed him to a one-year, $2.05-million contract as a free agent in December.
The long-term variable between a pretty good and very good rotation is Chris Archer. The righty was very good in his first three starts this season and not so good in his last two before going on the injured list with right thumb inflammation.
Now 30, it may be unreasonable to think Archer can still be the pitcher who was selected to two All-Star Games while playing for the Rays. However, they do need Archer to put together consistently good starts, especially after paying the high price of Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows to acquire him last July.
• The early-season of woes of Keone Kela and Richard Rodriguez put the Pirates’ bullpen in a bit of disarray. And the bullpen’s 4.03 ERA still ranks 13th in the majors, not good enough for the Pirates to overcome their other deficiencies.
While Rodriguez is yet to get completely back on track – witness the two-run home run Shin-Soo Choo hit off him Wednesday – Kela has returned to the dominant form he showed during most of his time with the Rangers before being traded to the Pirates last July. Kyle Crick is also following up his fine 2018 season with a strong performance in 2019.
If Crick, Rodriguez and Kela can pitch consistently well, it means the Pirates need to get just five good innings out of their starters before turning it over to the bullpen. That’s a great luxury to have, even in today’s era of bullpenning, and underscores the importance of Rodriguez contributing close to is 2018 level.
When the Pirates transport the lead from the starters to Felipe Vazquez, their chances of winning are almost 100 percent. He is again proving to be one of baseball’s best – if unheralded -- closers, having converted all eight save opportunities with a sparkling 0.66 ERA.
• Pitching and defense always go together. With that in mind, it is extremely encouraging for Neal Huntington and Clint Hurdle to see the Pirates ranking 13th in the majors in defensive efficiency, turning 70.1 percent of balls put in play into outs, excluding home runs.
The fielding was horrible last season and the Pirates still have their nightmarish moments. Remember Kevin Newman’s three errors in one inning against the Cubs last month? Remember Erik Gonzalez slamming into Starling Marte two weeks ago?
While it’s never very nice to wish bad luck on anyone, Gonzalez’s broken clavicle might be helping the Pirates defense. In addition to being a one-man wrecking crew, Gonzalez was very erratic in the field.
Gonzalez’s injury opened the door for Cole Tucker to start at shortstop and the defense has been crisper since the change. Tucker can make all the plays while providing a big boost of energy.
• The Pirates’ hitting woes have been well-documented on this site for the past month. Ranking 28th in the major leagues with an average of 3.46 runs per game says more than anything I can add at this point.
Nevertheless, the hitters started showing signs of breaking out in Texas. After scoring six runs over the final three innings Tuesday night in an improbable 6-3 victory in 11 innings, the Pirates matched their season single-game high in runs in Wednesday’s 7-5 win.
These aren’t the Pirates of The Lumber Company era. However, there is reason to believe they will not go down in history as the Slumber Company, either, especially now that some of the injured regulars have returned to the lineup.
The Pirates don’t have to slug their way to victory in every game. However, they need to give their pitchers more offensive support. As former Pirates general manager Larry Doughty once famously said, “you can’t win a game nothing-nothing.”
If the Pirates can somehow just get to the middle of pack in runs scored in the major leagues – and it could take a significant addition to the lineup for that to happen -- they have a chance to contend. That's a big if.
• The Pirates have won 14 games and they’ve lost 14 games. They’ve won five games in a row and followed that with an eight-game losing streak.
So, what should we make of this team?
Bill Parcells always said that “you are what your record says you are.” That’s just as true in baseball as it is in football.
The Pirates are not a bad team. They are also not a good team. That is why their winning percentage is .500.
I predicted the Pirates would go 78-84 when the season started. Nothing has happened to make me change my mind.
