Last July's deal to acquire Chris Archer was so bold, so out of character for the Pirates as a franchise, you could be forgiven for thinking that Jim Rutherford had sneaked into PNC Park and pulled the trigger when no one was looking.
The Pirates picked up arguably the trade deadline's most desired available player, taking on salary and surrendering a bounty of prized young talent (Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, Shane Baz) in the process. It seemed to mark a turning point for the team--a declaration that they were done treading water in the NL Central standings, and were focused on returning to the glory days of 2013-15.
One year later, the Archer deal is looking like one that the Pirates could seriously regret. Archer has been an also-ran in Pittsburgh, posting a park and league-adjusted ERA that is 7 percent worse than the overall MLB average. Meanwhile, Glasnow--last seen in these parts as a jittery, control-challenged reliever--has suddenly discovered the strike zone and is forging an early Cy Young Award campaign (a transformation worthy of its own, future Stats 'N 'At column). Meadows, who's currently injured, has an on-base-plus-slugging percentage north of 1.000 in Tampa Bay. Baz is farther away, but he's a former first-rounder with a power arm and a shot to contribute. Since the trade, Archer has been worth one Win Above Replacement (WAR, a measure of a player's overall value compared to that of a fringe major leaguer). Glasnow has been worth 2.1 WAR, and Meadows another one WAR. It's not looking good.
Why has Archer, on the injured list with a thumb problem, underwhelmed in Pittsburgh?
What does he have to do to rediscover the form that had the Pirates willing to part with two former top-25 prospects, and a 2017 first-round pick?
Here's a primer on what's ailing Archer.
• He's falling behind hitters too often. Archer is throwing first-pitch strikes just 54.9 percent of the time in 2019, according to Fangraphs. That's way below his 60.5 percent career average and the 60.6 percent MLB average, and ranks 125th among the 138 starting pitchers who have thrown at least 20 innings this year. Why does that matter? When batters get ahead in the count, they're lethal. Overall this season, MLB hitters have a 1.013 OPS when they're ahead in the count. With the ball-strike advantage, the average hitter morphs into Mike Trout. Archer, meanwhile, is allowing a 1.148 OPS when he falls behind batters this season. For comparison's sake, his OPS allowed is .568 when he jumps ahead in the count.
• Hitters aren't taking the bait. Last year, Archer induced swings on pitches thrown outside of the strike zone 33.5 percent of the time (the MLB average is about 30 percent). This year, he's getting chases off the plate only 27 percent of the time. In particular, the chase rate on his sinker has nosedived from 32 percent in 2018 to just 7.7 percent, and his changeup chase rate has declined from 43.3 percent to 26.3 percent. The lack of first-pitch strikes and chases has also contributed to Archer walking four batters per nine innings pitched, which is the highest rate of his MLB career and ranks 111th among starters with 20+ innings pitched.
• His fastball is getting lit up. Archer's average fastball velocity has been down thus far (93.1 mph in 2019, compared to 94.7 mph in 2018), and opponents are teeing off. According to MLB Statcast data, the problem has mainly been with Archer's sinker. His four-seam fastball, thrown 32.8 percent of the time, has been quite effective, limiting batters to a .250 slugging percentage against. The sinker, though? Opponents are slugging .824 versus that pitch, which Archer has thrown 16.8 percent of the time. Archer's whiff rate with his sinker is a paltry 2.7 percent, compared to 16 percent with his four-seamer. It might be time to shelve that sinker.
• He has become homer-happy. Archer's ground ball rate has plummeted from a league-average 44.6 percent last season to just 32.4 percent in 2019. On a related note, his home run rate has soared from 1.15 per nine innings pitched in 2018 to 1.67 per nine in 2019. Archer has coughed up two homers apiece with his slider and his sinker, and one on his changeup.
• Speaking of that changeup, it needs work. Archer was criticized in the past for being too reliant on his fastball and signature, wipeout slider. He's making a good faith effort to diversify his pitch mix this year, tossing a high-80s changeup 13.6 percent of the time (he threw that pitch about 9 percent last year). But per 100 pitches thrown, Archer's changeup has been -0.7 runs worse than that of the average MLB pitcher. He's throwing his best pitch, his slider, less often (34.7 percent in 2019, 41.5 percent in 2018) and replacing those sliders with a fringy changeup. Less predictable? Sure. Less effective? Yup.
With Archer falling behind hitters, failing to induce chases, and serving up plenty of homers, the presumed co-ace of the Pirates' rotation has actually been the least effective member of the starting five. Take a look at Pittsburgh's starters as measured by Fielding Independent ERA (FIP), an estimate of what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed. FIP is more of a skill-based stat that measures the factors that a pitcher can most directly control:
Archer, under team control through the 2021 season, could return to the form that made him a three to four wins per season pitcher. Maybe Glasnow and Meadows regress or can't stay healthy. In truth, we won't be able to fully and fairly evaluate the deal for a few more years. But's it undeniable that so far, the Pirates have lost this trade big time. They need Archer to pitch like a top-of-the-rotation arm, not a serviceable fifth starter.
MORE PIRATES
• Swing early, swing often: When Melky Cabrera signed a minor league deal with the Pirates in February, it looked like an inconsequential move. Maybe, at 34, he could eke out a roster spot, thanks to his switch-hitting ability. Instead, a cavalcade of injuries in the outfield have thrust Cabrera into an everyday role -- one that he has handled pretty well so far. Cabrera's park-and-league-adjusted on-base-plus-slugging percentage is 31 percent above the MLB average this season, which ranks behind only Josh Bell (159 OPS+) among all Pirates with at least 50 plate appearances. If Cabrera were to keep up this pace, it would be the second-best offensive season of his career (he had a 157 OPS+ with the Giants in 2012). He's succeeding at the plate with an aggressive approach against in-zone pitches. When he sees a strike, Cabrera is swinging. He's taking a cut at 72.1 percent of pitches thrown within the zone (67.2 percent MLB average, 64.9 percent career average).
Can he continue to be so productive? A pessimist could point to Cabrera's low walk rate (5.9 percent) and the fact that his batting average on balls in play (.363) is way above his career .309 average. He isn't really scorching the ball, either, with a hard hit rate (balls put in play at 95+ mph) of just 27.7 percent. The MLB average is 37.1 percent. Fluky or not, Cabrera's bat has been a gift for a team that too often has struggled to score runs.
• All leather, no lumber: Francisco Cervelli enjoyed a career-best season at the plate in 2018, posting a park-and-league-adjusted on-base-plus slugging percentage that was 23 percent better than the overall MLB average. That was the third-best OPS+ among all catchers who had at least 400 plate appearances. This year, Cervelli has been a near automatic out, with an adjusted OPS that's 65 percent below average (eighth-worst among all major leaguers with at least 80 plate appearances in 2019). At least his defense has picked up. Cervelli's pitch framing, arm, and pitch blocking have saved +4 runs compared to an average defensive catcher, according to Fangraphs. That's tied for second-best among MLB catchers. That doesn't make up for Cervelli's abysmal hitting thus far, but his strong defense at least keeps him from being a complete zero.
PENGUINS
• The Hart case for Crosby: While Sidney Crosby (1.27 points per game) didn't generate as many points as fellow Hart Trophy finalists Connor McDavid (1.49) or Nikita Kucherov (1.56), you could make a reasonable argument that his two-way game made him the more valuable overall player. With Crosby on the ice during five-on-five play, the Penguins generated 65.6 percent of overall goals, according to Natural Stat Trick. That was the highest rate among all NHL players who skated at least 1,000 minutes at even strength in 2018-19, and easily outpaced the goals-for rate of McDavid (50.7 percent) and Kucherov (59.4 percent). With Sid skating in five-on-five situations, the Penguins generated +6.6 percent more shots compared to when he was on the bench. That against bests the rates posted by McDavid (+3.8 percent) and Kucherov (+2.2 percent). Kucherov seems like a shoo-in to take the award after tallying the highest single-season points total (128) since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96 (161), but Crosby's MVP case has merit.
• Net crasher: As Penguins management contemplates everything from modest roster tweaks to franchise-altering trades, at least there's one thing they don't have to worry about: Locking up Jake Guentzel, who emerged as an elite offensive player in 2019 by scoring 40 goals. Guentzel became just the sixth Penguin to post a 40 goal season during the new millennium, joining the likes of frequent line mate Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, James Neal, Jaromir Jagr and Alex Kovalev. To accomplish that, he didn't stray far from the opposing goalie. Eighty percent of Guentzel's goals came either in the area in front of the crease (between the faceoff circles) or within the crease, according to the IcyData website. That's way above the 61 percent NHL average this past season. Guentzel scored seven goals that were tipped, tied for the seventh-highest total among NHL players in 2018-19. Despite his 5-foot-11, 180-pound frame, Guentzel goes to the net and gets rewarded big time.
• Dropping the gloves: League-wide, NHL fights are on the decline. Don't tell that to the Penguins, though, as the team has increased its fight total in each of the past four regular seasons: nine in 2015-16, 12 in 2016-17, 15 in 2017-18 and 16 in 2018-19. Regardless of why Pittsburgh is getting into more scuffles, they could use some pointers. The Hockey Fights website is dedicated to the dying pastime, and allows fans to vote on who "won" the fight. According to those crowd sourced numbers, the Penguins had three wins, nine losses and four draws. If this were boxing, we'd call them a tomato can. Marcus Pettersson and the since-traded Jamie Oleksiak squared off the most, with three fights apiece. The internet says the Swede lost all three fights, while Oleksiak went 1-1 with a draw.
STEELERS
• Linebacker range: The Steelers recently released linebacker Jon Bostic and safety/dime linebacker Morgan Burnett, with most of their snaps expected to go to first-round pick Devin Bush and free agent signee Mark Barron. The biggest reason for the roster churn is that opponents took advantage of Bostic and Burnett's limited range in pass coverage--particularly tight ends and running backs. Pittsburgh ranked 31st in the NFL in defending tight ends on a per-pass basis in 2018, according to Football Outsiders. Only the Raiders were worse. Against running backs, the Steelers ranked a middling 15th in pass coverage. If all goes according to plan with Bush and Barron, teams shouldn't be able to expose the Steelers as much in the short-to-intermediate passing game in 2019.
• Smith steps up: Despite planting 29 quarterbacks in the turf over the past two seasons and earning Mid-American Conference Defensive Player of the Year honors in 2018, Sutton Smith last until the sixth round of the NFL draft because of questions about his size and the level of competition that he faced. Here's one reason to think that the 6-foot-1, 235 pound sack master can make a successful transition to the NFL: When the competition got tougher, Smith was at his best. Smith averaged 1.33 sacks per game while facing FBS teams from a Power 5 Conference in 2018, according to CFBstats.com. That's above the one sack per game rate while facing non-Power 5 FBS schools. Smith also averaged more tackles per game (5.7) versus Power 5 schools than non-Power 5 schools (four), and more tackles for loss (2.5 per game against the Power 5, compared to 1.7 against other FBS schools).
• A return game upgrade? The Steelers have high hopes for Diontae Johnson, a third-round pick out of Toledo. But while the long-term goal is for Johnson to complement JuJu Smith-Schuster at the top of the team's receiver depth chart, he could provide an instant upgrade to a Steelers return game that languished in 2018. Johnson averaged 25.8 yards on kickoff returns at Toldeo last season (23rd among all FBS players) and 18.5 yards per punt return (second in the FBS). For comparison's sake, the Steelers ranked 31st in the NFL in kick return average (19.3 yards) and 17th in punt returns (8.1) last year.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Size doesn't matter: Historically, being a short quarterback was the kiss of death for NFL draft prospects. QBs were supposed to fit a certain archetype--6-foot-4, 220 pounds, towering over the line of scrimmage. Six-foot-nothing college QBs, even high-quality ones, were often converted to other positions or otherwise buried on the depth chart. But in today's NFL, defined by up-tempo offense and snaps taken from the shotgun, that's no longer the case. Oklahoma QB Kyler Murray, who checked in at 5-foot-10 at the combine, went number one overall in the draft. A year earlier, former teammate Baker Mayfield (listed generously at 6-foot-1) was the top pick. In fact, we're in a golden era for shorter QBs. Among post-merger QBs (1970 to present) with at least 1,000 passes thrown, Drew Brees has the highest career adjusted passer rating (17 percent above the overall NFL average) among QBs listed at six foot or shorter. Russell Wilson, recently signed to a $140 million contract extension that makes him the NFL's highest paid player, ranks second at 16 percent above average.
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