"Some big decisions will have to be made. Obviously, there will be changes in our team.”
That was Jim Rutherford's answer during the Penguins' locker room cleanout day when asked about his approach this offseason.
With seemingly nobody "untouchable" other than Sidney Crosby, there are some big-name candidates who could be moved this offseason. The one who is the most likely to be moved is Phil Kessel.
I’ll take a look at the bad and the good in Kessel's 2018-19 season, and look at where things go from here.
THE BAD
Kessel is an offense-first guy. He's a playmaker. Playmaking is inherently risky, and giveaways are to be expected. Kessel finished No. 2 in giveaways this season with 78, trailing only Evgeni Malkin's 84. Other strong playmakers on the roster -- Kris Letang (76) and Sidney Crosby (67) -- weren't far behind.
Not all of Kessel's giveaways came from trying to make a risky play and losing the puck, though. Many were just ill-advised passes straight onto the stick of an opponent:
Kessel's fellow playmakers also typically record a high number of takeaways, too. Malkin had 64, Letang 63, and Crosby 54. Kessel, on the other hand, only recorded 33. He's not going to often go out of his way to make a defensive play.
Kessel's aversion to backchecking is also evidenced by his hit count. He had 12 hits all season. The only players who recorded fewer hits were forwards who played no more than six games this season: Adam Johnson (11), Joseph Blandisi (6), and Jean-Sebastien Dea (2).
Offensively, Kessel was inconsistent during the regular season. He only recorded three goals between Jan. 30 and April 2, none of which came at even strength. Yes, his overall offensive contributions were great, but he disappeared for a crucial stretch of the season.
THE GOOD
When Kessel wants to, he's absolutely still capable of a hard backcheck and a takeaway.
Kessel made two strong defensive plays when the Wild visited Pittsburgh in December. He skated hard to break up a 2-on-1 in the first period, and stripped Marcus Foligno of the puck once he caught up:
Later in the game, he broke up a pass to Luke Kunin, who was in prime position for a one-timer:
In a January game against the Coyotes, Malkin mishandled a pass on the power play and the puck went sailing down the other end of the ice, setting up Derek Stepan for a potential breakaway. Kessel was the first Penguin to start flying down the ice, and he came in with such speed that he prevented Stepan from getting a shot:
But that's enough about his defense.
Even with Kessel's inconsistencies during the season, his offensive contributions were strong. He was a point-per-game player, finishing No. 2 on the team with 82 points in 82 games. His 27 goals ranked third.
That strong offensive play includes his five-on-five play, despite going more than two months without an even-strength goal during the season. Kessel's 43 points at five-on-five ranked third, trailing only Jake Guentzel's 57 and Crosby's 61. Fifteen of his 27 goals came at five-on-five, including this flashy play in Anaheim in January:
Kessel's 36 power play points were the most on the team, and his 12 power play goals were tied for the team lead with Crosby.
Although Kessel's Corsi For percentage at even strength was slightly below average at 47.67, he had moments showing great ability to possess the puck. In this play in January, he manages to hang onto the puck for 18 seconds before leading a rush with Letang, who finished it off:
WHAT'S NEXT?
If the Penguins are to get younger, faster, and harder to play against, Kessel doesn't fit the description.
But what is the solution?
Kessel's contract comes at a great value for the Penguins. It carries an average annual value of $8 million, but with Toronto still retaining $1.2 million in salary, only $6.8 million counts toward the Penguins' cap. For a point-per-game player, that's not bad.
Can you realistically expect to replace Kessel's offensive contributions for $6.8 million? Probably not. Ideally, the Penguins would find Malkin a young, suitable, goal-scoring winger who is also reliable defensively. It would be difficult to find a candidate who can fill that role and also put up 82 points for $6.8 million.
Kessel also has a modified no-trade, no-movement clause. If asked, he must submit a list of just eight teams to which he would accept a trade. The no-movement portion of the clause also requires that Kessel is protected in the upcoming Seattle expansion draft.
Of course, if Kessel does want out of Pittsburgh and does want a new start in a new organization, he can waive the clause.
