The 2019 Pirates are Major League Baseball's ultimate high-wire act.
Despite being outscored by nearly 40 runs and seemingly having 40 players on the injured list, the Pirates have managed to stay in contention in the NL Central. If they're going to sustain this kind of success, they need far more from an offense that ranks 13th in the NL in runs scored (3.84 per game). They're getting practically zero production from a variety of lineup spots, including catcher, shortstop, third base and center field.
It's enough to make you wonder: Where would this team be without Josh Bell?
With each hellacious cut and each ball sent soaring into the stands (or the nearest body of water), Bell is proving he possesses elite power. A few weeks ago, we broke down the process improvements that have fueled the 26-year-old switch-hitter's breakout. The Cliff Notes version: A more power-friendly, upper-cut swing that has led to all-fields slugging. Today, let's look at where Bell's mammoth start ranks among his peers and the Pirates' all-time power-hitting greats.
How good has Bell been? Consider:
• Once you adjust for park factors and the league-wide run scoring environment, Bell's On-Base Plus Slugging Percentage is 94 percent better than the overall league average. His 194 OPS+ not only towers over his mark from 2018 (111), but ranks in the top five among all MLB hitters who have at least 150 plate appearances this season:
• While Bell has a long way to go before earning those oft-made comparisons to Willie Stargell, his torrid hitting thus far actually trumps even the best production turned in by Pops. Bell's 194 OPS+ would be the best in franchise history among first basemen with 150+ plate appearances in a season, topping Stargell's 1972 (164 OPS+) and 1978 (158 OPS+) campaigns.
• Among all Pirates hitters with 150+ trips to the plate in a season, Bell trails only Honus Wagner (205 OPS+ in 1908) and Barry Bonds (204 OPS+ in 1992). His 2019 pace puts him ahead of the likes of Arky Vaughan (190 OPS+ in 1935), Wagner (188 OPS+ in 1904), and Wagner again (187 OPS+ in 1907).
• Bell is on pace to hit 51 home runs this season. If he were to maintain that rate, he would have a chance to become the franchise's new all-time single-season home run leader. Ralph Kiner is the pace-setter, with 54 homers in 1949. The only other Pirates to clear 40 home runs in a season are Kiner (51 in 1947, 47 in 1950, 42 in 1951, 40 in 1948) and Stargell (48 in 1971, 44 in 1973). The last time the Pirates had a 30-home run season was 2013, when Pedro Alvarez belted 36.
When your name is in the same sentence as The Flying Dutchman, Kiner, the all-time home run king, and Pops, you're doing something remarkable. In a lineup teeming with near-automatic outs, Bell has been a one-man wrecking crew. One of the big questions now is, can he maintain that pace?
No one should expect Bell to keep slugging near .700, but he probably won't revert back into the frustrating singles hitter we saw in 2018. According to the ZiPS projection system on Fangraphs, Bell is forecast to bat .276, get on base at a .360 clip and slug .482 during the rest of the 2019 season. His park and league-adjusted line is projected to be 27 percent above average, which would still keep him in the upper tier of first basemen with guys such as Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto. Alvarez is the last Pirates player to possess anything near Bell's level of power. And Bell doesn't have the same massive issues with making contact and platoon splits that ultimately torpedoed Alvarez's career. For the Pirates to stay in the race, they'll need their one-man Lumber Company to sustain some of his power-hitting gains -- and get a little help from other hitters.
MORE PIRATES
• Rodriguez getting rocked: In 2018, Richard Rodriguez went from an anonymous reliever with impressive Triple-A stats to an integral part of the Pirates' bullpen. Despite throwing 92-93 mph fastballs high in the strike zone and little else, Rodriguez punched out 11.4 batters per nine innings pitched and posted a sterling 2.60 fielding independent ERA (FIP, an ERA estimator that accounts for strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed). In 2019, Rodriguez -- recently demoted back to Triple-A -- is setting wildfires left and right. His K rate is down to 7.3 per nine innings, his walk rate is elevated (4.1 per nine, up from 2.5 per nine in 2018) and he's coughing up a staggering 3.7 homers per nine innings (0.65 last year). His 8.30 FIP is second worst among all qualified MLB relievers. What changed? He hasn't lost any velocity, with his fastball averaging 92.9 mph in both 2018 and 2019. But Rodriguez has become even more predictable, throwing his fastball 84 percent of the time (75 percent last year), and hitters seem to have adjusted to his deceptive delivery. Last season, hitters whiffed 28 percent of the time when Rodriguez threw a fastball, according to MLB Statcast. This year, they're whiffing 16 percent. In 2018, batters put Rodriguez's fastball in play at an average of 85.8 mph. This year, it's 91.5 mph.
• Down goes Frazier: Unfortunately, Adam Frazier has opened the 2019 season looking more like the guy who got demoted to Triple-A early last year than the surprise slugger who earned an everyday spot in the lineup. His slugging percentage has dipped by more than 100 points between 2018 (.456) and 2019 (.354), and his adjusted OPS has fallen from 18 percent above the overall MLB average to 16 percent below average. He's not making contact with the same power he did last year, with his rate of hard-hit (95+ mph) balls put in play falling from 35 percent to 29 percent (the MLB average is 37 percent). The biggest differences are his performance versus soft stuff. In 2018, Frazier slugged .548 versus curveballs and sliders. This year, he's slugging .475. After slugging .489 against off-speed pitches last season, he's slugging just .250 off changeups and splitters. I wouldn't expect the Pirates to shift him to a bench role so quickly, but Kevin Kramer and Kevin Newman could re-enter the second base mix at some point.
STEELERS
• Benny Snell football: With James Conner already trucking defenders regularly, some expected the Steelers to draft a more shifty complementary running back who top-line speed. Instead, the Steelers doubled down on power running by selecting Kentucky's Benny Snell Jr. At 5-foot-10 and 225 pounds, Snell racked up nearly 3,900 career rushing yards with the Wildcats. He joins a backfield that ranked fifth among NFL teams in power success rate. A Football Outsiders metric, power success rate measures the percentage of successful first-down conversions or touchdowns a team gets on third and fourth down with 2 yards or less to go. The Steelers were converted 71 percent of the time under those circumstances last year, trailing just the Ravens (78 percent), Redskins (76), Cowboys (75) and Chiefs (72).
• Kicker controversy: The Steelers recently signed undrafted UCF kicker Matthew Wright to compete with incumbent Chris Boswell, who's coming off an apocalyptic season in which he converted just 65 percent of field goals attempted (89.5 percent from 2015-17) and 89.6 percent of extra points (97.1 percent from 2015-17). Boswell's decline can be traced to his sudden inability to connect on long-distance field goals. During the first three years of his career, Boswell made 29 out of 34 kicks from 40 yards or longer (85.3 percent). In 2019, he made just five out of 10. Wright, meanwhile, was successful on five out of seven kicks from 40-plus yards during the 2019 college season, and didn't miss an extra point. Boswell had an historically brilliant beginning to his career, but he could be kicking for his job at St. Vincent.
• Iron man Heyward: Since a pectoral injury limited him to just seven games played during the 2016 season, Cameron Heyward has turned into one of the game's iron men on the defensive line. Heyward ranked fifth among AFC defensive linemen in defensive snap percentage in 2017 (80), and fourth in 2018 (80.5). He has 20 sacks over that time frame, too, which ranks behind only Aaron Donald (31.5) among players classified as interior defensive linemen. It wouldn't hurt if someone such as Isaiah Buggs could emerge and take some of the burden off Heyward, but we're witnessing a consistent and dominant performer here.
PENGUINS
• Extending Murray: While he won't become a restricted free agent until the 2020-21 season, don't be surprised if the Penguins try to extend goaltender Matt Murray this summer. And don't be surprised if Murray's yearly salary jumps from under $4 million to near $7 million. He has earned it. Dating back to the 2015-16 season, Murray has a save rate eight percent better than the overall average for NHL goaltenders. That's tied with Corey Crawford for fourth-best among all goalies with 150+ games played over the span, ranking behind only John Gibson (10 percent above average), Ben Bishop (10 percent above average) and Robin Lehner (nine percent above average). On a per-game basis, Murray has outplayed the likes of Carey Price ($10.5 million average annual value, with a save rate seven percent better than average), Henrik Lundqvist ($8.5 million, average save rate), Sergei Bobrovsky ($7.425 million, +6 percent save rate), Pekka Rinne ($7 million, +6 percent save rate), Tuukka Rask ($7 million, +3 percent), Connor Hellebuyck ($6.2 million, +3 percent) and Braden Holtby ($6 million, +4 percent).
• Blue line making bank: As GM Jim Rutherford ponders his next move, trading a high-priced defenseman could be near the top of his list. The average NHL team spent about $20.9 million on its defensive corps in 2018-19, according to Spotrac. The Penguins allocated a cap-stressing $26.4 million on defensemen, which was the fourth-highest total among teams. Overall, 34.5 percent of their cap went to defensemen (27.9 percent NHL average). Kris Letang --postseason recklessness aside -- and Brian Dumoulin earned their big bucks. And Justin Schultz has been good when healthy. But not so much for Olli Maatta and Jack Johnson. Erik Gudbranson was surprisingly good after being traded to the Penguins, but they might not want to pay him $4-plus million per year too. Expect Rutherford shop those last three guys mentioned this summer.
• Guentzel's 200-foot game: Jake Guentzel emerged as an elite offensive player during the regular season in 2018-19, elevating his points per game total from 0.59 in 2017-18 to 0.93. But we shouldn't overlook his improvement on the other side of the puck. With Guentzel on the ice during five-on-five play, the Penguins' goals allowed total dropped from 2.7 per 60 minutes in 2017-18 to 2.3 in 2018-19. The Pens also allowed fewer scoring chances (29.5 in '17-'18, 26.2 last year) and fewer high-danger scoring opportunities (14.3 in '17-'18, 10.5 in '18-19) with Guentzel skating this past year. He even got involved in the penalty kill, skating 40-plus minutes total while short-handed and netting a short-handed goal. His offensive breakout didn't come at the expense of his defense.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Center field downturn: In last week's column, we explored the dramatic rise in offensive production for MLB shortstops. Unfortunately, that up-the-middle slugging hasn't extended to the center field position. Once you adjust for park and league factors, MLB center fielders have been 10 percent worse offensively than the overall big league average. That adjusted line, if it holds up, would be the worst in major league history. The only other times that center fielders were even remotely this inept at the plate came in 2006 and 2000 (six percent below the overall MLB average). Starling Marte, who has posted a .250 average/.278 OBP/.408 slugging percentage, is basically the norm for center fielders this season (his adjusted OPS is 17 percent below average). Even Mike Trout can't carry the entire position.
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