The 2019 Pirates feature a stars-and-scrubs lineup, with Josh Bell and a surprisingly effective smorgasbord of outfielders trying to compensate for a total lack of production at other positions. It's not a total shock to see the Pirates getting little from the left side of the infield, as they wait for Ke'Bryan Hayes to arrive and for Cole Tucker to actually be MLB-ready. But the catcher spot -- which was a huge competitive advantage for the club last year and figured to be so again in 2019 -- has quickly turned into a black hole.
Francisco Cervelli, once again sidelined by concussion-like symptoms, and Elias Diaz, slowed this spring by a virus, have been one of the worst catching tandems in the game this year after combining for one of the franchise's best seasons behind the plate in 2018. Just how bad have the Pirates been at catcher this year? Why are they struggling so much? And, most important, will the Pirates get better production at catcher as they hold on for dear life in the NL Central and Wild Card races?
Last year, Cervelli and Diaz combined for 4.2 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR measures a player's offensive, defensive and base running value compared to that of a waiver wire-caliber player (think Jacob Stallings). That WAR total ranked fourth among all MLB teams in 2018, and ranked among the Pirates' top 15 single-season performances behind the plate. In 2019, however, Bucs catchers have been even worse than replacement-level:
With -0.6 WAR, the Pirates rank 28th in the majors, ahead of only the Tigers and Rangers at the position. If they keep up this putrid pace, they'll "challenge" the team's 2009 (-2.7 WAR), 2010 (-2.1) and 2012 (-2..0) catchers for the least valuable single-season performance in franchise history.
The downturn at the plate has been especially glaring. In 2018, Cervelli had a batting line that was 23 percent above the overall MLB average, once you account for park factors and the league-wide offensive environment. Before his latest injury, Cervelli had a batting line that was 55 percent below average. His normally stellar plate discipline hasn't been there, with Cervelli swinging at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone (26 percent, compared to 21 percent in 2018) and drawing fewer walks (7.3 percent of his plate appearances, down from 12.6 percent last year).
Cervelli's power has evaporated, too, with his slugging percentage declining by nearly 150 points between 2018 (.431) and 2019 (.248). After holding his own versus fastballs last year (he slugged .485, according to MLB Statcast), he has been overwhelmed by velocity this season (.208 slugging percentage).
Diaz, felled by a mysterious virus during spring training, has similarly struggled to build upon an outstanding offensive season in 2018. After posting an adjusted batting line that was 16 percent above the MLB average in 2018, Diaz has been 52 percent worse than average in 2019. He's pulling the ball far less often so far (30 percent, versus 38 percent in 2018), and he's producing weak contact when he does put the ball in play to left field (.316 slugging percentage, after slugging .813 in 2018). Diaz might be the victim of some bad luck, with his batting average on balls in play falling by 100 points between 2018 (.340) and 2019 (.240), but he's not exactly making scorching contact.
Cervelli and Diaz aren't just scuffling at the plate, but also behind it. Despite their divergent reputations, both guys have fared poorly when measured by more advanced defensive stats. According to Baseball Prospectus, Cervelli has been -0.5 runs worse than an average big league catcher in terms of framing pitches (getting strikes on borderline calls), -1 run worse in blocking pitches, and average in controlling the running game (+0.1 runs). In limited playing time, Diaz has been -3.7 runs below average in pitch framing. That washes away his good work in blocking pitches (+1 run) and his average arm.
So, Pirates catchers have been lousy so far. Will they improve? It's hard to know what to expect from Cervelli, given his injury situation. But the ZiPS projection system has Cervelli turning in a batting line that's 5 percent below the overall MLB average during the rest of the 2019 season. Diaz is projected to be 20 percent below the MLB average behind the plate. If Cervelli either can't play due to injury or struggles so much that he gets phased out during his free agent walk year, the Pirates could be in trouble. Stallings,29, is projected for a batting line that's 31 percent below the MLB average. He has a solid defensive reputation, but there's a reason he is on the roster bubble.
Although the Pirates enjoyed a competitive advantage at catcher in 2018, the outlook is bleak right now. Cervelli's long-term well-being is the major concern, but the 33-year-old has also declined dramatically. Diaz still could be the long-term option and he didn't have a normal spring by any means, but he has to prove his 2018 power surge was more than a fluke. Stallings, while useful defensively, shouldn't carry the position. And, unlike at third base and shortstop, the Pirates don't have a touted prospect waiting to take over. Truthfully, the Pirates' long-term catcher could join the organization soon -- via trade or the MLB draft in June. As for the rest of 2019, expect some dead-cat-bounce improvement -- though nothing close to the heights of 2018.
MORE PIRATES
• Seasoned slugger: As a Pirate with an offensive pulse, Melky Cabrera is a rarity. But he's part of even even more exclusive -- and even more endangered -- group: old dudes who can rake. Cabrera, 34, has a park and league-adjusted OPS that is 23 percent better than the overall MLB average. He's one of only eight hitters this season who are age 34 or older with an adjusted OPS that's at least 20 percent above average (minimum 100 plate appearances). Before Cabrera, the last Pirate to meet those criteria was Marlon Byrd, who had a 1,037 OPS+ back in 2013. The ultimate old due sluggers in Pirates history include Honus Wagner (205 OPS+ at age 34, 177 OPS+ at age 35), Willie Stargell (168 OPS+ at age 34) and Roberto Clemente (168 OPS+ at age 34).
• High-speed struggles: Fastballs are thrown harder than ever in today's game, but they're also thrown less often. Pitchers have tossed a fastball less than 53 percent of the time league-wide, compared to 60 percent a decade ago. That hasn't been the case for Pirates hitters, though, who have seen fastballs at the fifth-highest rate (55 percent) among MLB teams in 2019. There's a good reason for that: Even by their modest offensive standards, Pittsburgh's lineup struggles to hit fastballs. Collectively, Pirates batters have the fourth-worst per-pitch performance versus the heat (-0.4 runs below average per 100 fastballs seen, according to Fangraphs). The worst hitters against fastballs include Cervelli (-2.6 runs below average per 100 pitches), Cole Tucker (-2.1), Kevin Newman (-1.7), Adam Frazier (-1.0) and Diaz (-1.0). Frazier is getting attacked by velocity more than most, as he has seen fastballs 60 percent of the time.
STEELERS
• Rookie expectations: Steelers fans have exceptionally high hopes for first-round pick Devin Bush, a Michigan star selected 10th overall who's supposed to provide the speed, power and coverage ability that the team has lacked at inside linebacker since Ryan Shazier's injury. He will have to kill it in 2019 to crack the list of the Steelers' all-time best rookie performers, though. Pro Football Reference tracks a stat called Approximate Value (AV), which attempts to measure the overall contributions of players across different positions on the field and across different eras. According to AV, the top rookies in Steelers history during the post-merger era (1970-present) include Kendrell Bell (16 AV in 2001), Franco Harris (13 AV in 1972), Maurkice Pouncey (13 AV in 2010), Ben Roethlisberger (11 AV in 2004), Louis Lipps (10 AV in 1984), JuJu Smith-Schuster (10 AV in 2017), Le'Veon Bell (8 AV in 2013), Santonio Holmes (8 AV in 2006), Jack Lambert (8 AV in 1974) and Darren Perry (8 AV in 1992). Bush will need to have a borderline Pro Bowl-caliber year to break into that group.
• Against the odds: With the emergence of B.J. Finney, many expected the Steelers to let left guard Ramon Foster walk in free agency this offseason. Instead, they resigned the 33-year-old -- who had a resurgent 2018 season while starting all 16 games -- to a two-year contract extension. It's just the latest surprise success for Foster, an undrafted lineman out of Tennessee who has enjoyed a decade-long NFL career. For long shots looking to sneak on to the Steelers' roster this summer, Foster offers hope. He has appeared in the fourth-most games (146) among all Steelers who entered the league as an undrafted free agent during the post-merger era. The only players neglected on draft day to see more game action are Donnie Shell (201 career games), Greg Warren (180) and James Harrison (177).
• Red zone Rocket: Listed at 5-foot-10 and 183 pounds, Diontae Johnson hardly fits the archetype of the wide receiver who can outjump and overpower defensive backs for touchdowns in the red zone. But the Steelers' third-round pick out of Toledo was stellar when his team crossed the opponent's 20-yard line. Over the 2017 and 2018 seasons, Johnson hauled in a combined 18 passes and 12 touchdowns in the red zone. According to Pro Football Focus, the sure-handed Johnson had the 11th-best receiving grade in the red zone among all college players the past two seasons and ranked ninth in the percentage of red zone targets resulting in a first down or a touchdown (about 39 percent). Roethlisberger might discover a new favorite target when the field shrinks and throwing windows narrow.
PENGUINS
• Let it rip, Geno: Despite averaging more than a point per game (1.06) in 2018-19, Evgeni Malkin had a relatively down season that was often defined by ill-timed giveaways and long stretches of lukewarm five-on-five play. He also scored just 0.31 goals per game, which is the second-lowest rate of his distinguished career (he had 0.29 per game in 2012-13). Whether he didn't trust his shot or whether he just didn't get the same caliber of scoring chances, Malkin didn't show the same level of aggression in terms of firing pucks at the net. Malkin averaged 2.75 shots per game this past season, by far the lowest rate of his NHL tenure. His career average, by contrast, is 3.4 shots per game. Malkin is at his best when he's slashing toward the net and taking lots of short-distance shots. The Penguins need Malkin to rediscover that aggression -- and make fewer misguided passes -- in 2019-20.
• Exceeding expectations: Matt Murray enjoyed a resurgent season, raising his save rate from .907 in 2017-18 to .919 in 2018-19 while also carrying a heavier workload down the stretch. And Murray, 25, in line to receive a long-term deal that could pay him $6-plus million annually, turned away plenty of difficult shots that other goalies would have let slip past them. Murray allowed 84 goals during five-on-five play in 2018-19, according to Natural Stat Trick. His expected goals allowed total -- which adjusts for the shot quality, shot location and game situation -- was 93 during even-strength situations. Murray ranked second among all net minders in goals saved above average, placing just behind the Stars' Ben Bishop. In 2017-18, by contrast, Murray allowed 98 even-strength goals but was expected to allow only 84. The Penguins are fighting against Father Time and are facing a borderline identity crisis in terms of playing style, but Murray's re-establishing himself as an upper-tier goalie was a huge win for the franchise.
• Breaking through: After being traded from the Panthers to the Penguins, Nick Bjugstad became more of a scoring threat. Bjugstad averaged nearly three shots per game in Pittsburgh (2.94) after unleashing less than two per game in Florida (1.88), and he raised his goals per game total to 0.28 (0.16 with the Panthers). After the trade, Bjugstad did a much better job of getting his shots on the net. According to Hockey-Reference, 73.4 percent of his shot attempts with the Penguins reached the goalie. In Florida earlier in the season, that rate was just 57.1 percent. Bjugstad actually had the highest rate of shot attempts that reached the net among all Penguins who skated in at least 30 regular-season games. If Bjugstad gets back to scoring 20 goals per season, it would take some pressure off an aging roster that relies so heavily on its stars.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• A base on balls epidemic: In an MLB landscape defined by the "three true outcomes" -- homers, walks and strikeouts -- we're seeing more free passes than we have in a generation. MLB pitchers have issued 3.4 walks per nine innings pitched in 2019, which is up from 3.23 in 2018 and is the highest rate since the 2000 season (3.75). On a related note, pitchers have thrown the ball within the strike zone just 42.6 percent of the time this season. That's the lowest rate of in-zone pitches since Baseball Info Solutions started tracking the stat back in 2002. A decade ago, pitchers threw the ball over the plate about half of the time. Are flame-throwing pitchers simply unable to control their high-velocity stuff? Are they treading lightly around hitters who are increasingly taking max-effort, home-run cuts? Some combination of both? Stay tuned.
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