Kevin Newman's 2018 cup of coffee in the majors was the equivalent of three-day-old, half-drank Starbucks with a bunch of grinds at the bottom of the cup.
The Pirates' first-round pick in the 2015 draft, renowned for his contact-hitting ability and speed in the minors, was run down physically by the time he reached PNC Park last August. And it showed: Newman's park and league-adjusted On-Base-Plus-Slugging Percentage (OPS) was 67 percent worse than the overall MLB average. His adjusted OPS was one of the 20 worst marks ever posted by a Pirates rookie position player with at least 75 plate appearances in a season. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) -- a measure of a player's overall value at the plate, in the field and on the bases compared to a Quad-A-type talent -- was -0.8.
For some, Newman's poor initial impression pushed him behind Cole Tucker as the team's best long-term shortstop option and it called into question his status as an everyday player. It may have also contributed to the Pirates acquiring Erik Gonzalez during the offseason. But thankfully, since returning from a stint on the injured list that resulted from losing a fight with a pitching machine, Newman has restored the organization's faith and secured the shortstop gig -- at least for now.
What is behind Newman's improved play, and is it sustainable?
Let's dig deeper.
Newman's bat has come back from the dead in 2019, as he boasts an adjusted OPS that is 11 percent better than the overall MLB average. That's also the 13th-best mark among all shortstops with at least 150 plate appearances this season. One reason is that he's doing a better job of controlling the strike zone.
In 2018, Newman walked in just 4.1 percent of his plate appearances and struck out 23.7 percent of the time. The latter figure was particularly concerning for a guy who doesn't have much power, and who barely had a double-digit whiff rate in the minors. Newman has at least modestly improved his walk rate this year (6.8 percent), while slashing his strikeout rate down to 13.6 percent. He has accomplished that by reducing his whiff rate against breaking pitches (31 percent in 2018, 26 percent in 2019, according to MLB Statcast) and especially offspeed stuff (30 percent last year, 16 percent this season).
With fewer whiffs, Newman has been much better overall against breaking and offspeed pitches. Newman was -4.2 runs worse than an average MLB hitter per 100 sliders seen in 2018, according to Fangraphs. This year, he's +1.8 runs above average per 100 sliders seen. He was -0.8 runs below average versus changeups last year, and +0.8 runs above average in 2019. He killed curveballs both years (+4.6 in 2018, +2.7 in 2019).
And, while Newman is still hardly known for his power-hitting prowess, he's at least not getting the bat knocked out of his hands. His isolated power -- a measure of extra-base skill found by subtracting slugging percentage from batting average -- has improved from .022 in 2018 to .114 in 2019.
He's also flashing some skills at shortstop and on the basepaths. He has been around average at short so far (-1 Defensive Runs saved), with some individual plays that show off impressive range. And although he hasn't been a massive stolen base threat, Newman has been successful in four of five attempts while ranking among MLB's elite in sprint speed. Sprint speed measures the feet per second that a player travels during his fastest one-second window on individual plays. At 28.3 feet per second, Newman ranks in the top 15 percent among all major leaguers and isn't far away from Starling Marte territory (29 feet per second).
Newman has made legitimate progress in 2019, but there are still reasons for concern long-term. He's making more contact, but the quality of that contact is poor. Newman's exit velocity on pitches put in play this season is just 84.5 mph, which is nearly three mph below the MLB average (87.4). He has one of the lowest exit velocities among all big league players in 2019:
Newman has also been somewhat lucky, with a .357 bating average on balls in play. That's more than 60 points above the MLB average (.295).Granted, a player with Newman's plus speed might be able to leg out a few more infield hits (his 17.1 percent infield hit rate is fourth-highest among all MLB players with 100+ plate appearances). But there's also a strong link between exit velocity and BABIP -- the higher the exit velocity, the more likely a player is to get a hit on balls put in play. With such a low exit velocity, Newman shouldn't count on maintaining a near-.360 BABIP.
And, although Newman has been great versus breaking and offspeed pitches, he's still struggling to turn on fastballs. He has been -0.9 runs below average per 100 fastballs seen in 2019. That's better than 2018 (-2.1 runs per 100 pitches), but we're speaking in relative terms here.
At the very least, Newman has prevented himself from being pigeonholed as a utility player -- a very real possibility for a near-26-year-old facing internal competition at both middle infield spots. He may well hold down shortstop for the rest of the season, given his performance so far, the need for Tucker to get Triple-A at-bats, and Gonzalez's injury/lack of effectiveness in April. To be effective long-term, though, he needs to put more of a charge into the ball. Some of those seeing-eye singles are going to stop falling at some point, and Newman needs to have enough patience and power at the plate to keep his head above water.
MORE PIRATES
• That sinking feeling: Chris Archer is relying more heavily upon his sinker, throwing the pitch 19 percent of the time overall in 2019 (10.5 percent in 2018). He might want to re-think that approach. His sinker wasn't very good in small doses last year, with opponents batting .327 against the pitch and slugging .490 according to MLB Statcast. But those numbers look downright spectacular compared to 2019, as batters are hitting .400 off Archer's sinker with an .867 slugging percentage. He has already served up seven home runs off the sinker this year, compared to one in 2018. The pitch has also lost a tick of velocity between 2018 (94.8 mph average) and 2019 (93.9 mph). Whatever the reason for Archer's suddenly sinker-centric game plan, it's not working.
• Wham! Another homer: We live in an era where home runs are hit at an unprecedented rate. But even so, the Pirates are getting taken deep at a ridiculous rate. Pittsburgh's staff has surrendered 1.41 home runs per nine innings pitched, which is the fifth-highest among National League clubs. The last time that the Pirates have served up homers at this high of a clip was, well, never. If this 2019 rate holds -- or even stays in the same stratosphere -- it will set a franchise record. The 2017 Pirates pitching staff has the ignominious full-season record, having given up 1.14 home runs per nine games. The 1996 (1.13), 2016 (1.12) and 1953 (1.11) squads were also ridiculously homer-prone. The biggest culprits on the 2019 team reside in the overworked, understaffed bullpen (a collective 1.57 HR/9, compared to 1.28 for the starting pitchers).
PENGUINS
• Murray vs. Binnington: St. Louis Blues goalie Jordan Binnington is getting much-deserved praise as a rookie who lifted the franchise out of last place and then lifted the Stanley Cup. Binnington won 16 games during that successful Cup quest, which established a record for a rookie goaltender. Matt Murray, Ron Hextall, Patrick Roy and Cam Ward had all previously shared the rookie record with 15 victories. But don't despair, Penguins fans: You can still make the case that Murray was the better Stanley Cup-winning rookie net minder. Binnington's adjusted save rate was actually 3 percent worse than the league average in the playoffs. As a rookie, Murray's adjusted save rate was 8 percent better than average in the playoffs. Roy (26 percent better than average), meanwhile, can claim supremacy over both of them.
• Jarry's future: Speaking of young goalies, Tristan Jarry's tenure with the Penguins could be coming to a close. Once considered the team's heir to Marc-Andre Fleury, Jarry is now No. 3 on the depth chart. Murray is the clear franchise goalie, and Casey DeSmith established himself as a quality backup worthy of a longer-term contract extension. That leaves Jarry, who can't be sent to the AHL again without clearing waivers, in the lurch. He's coming off a 2018-19 season at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in which he posted a .915 save percentage, which ranked 12th out of 40 qualified goalies. During his brief NHL career (29 games, 26 starts), Jarry's adjusted save rate has been 4 percent worse than average. If he's going to carve out a lengthy career, he'll have to improve his work against top-tier scoring opportunities. Jarry has a .796 save percentage against high-danger scoring chances, which are those with the highest odds of becoming a goal based on shot location, shot type, and odd-man scoring situations. That's the fifth-lowest high-danger save rate among 77 goalies with at least 1,000 minutes played in five-on-five play since the start of the 2016-17 season.
• Best of the best: There won't be any parades and beer-chugging on duck boats this summer -- at least not those related to another Penguins Stanley Cup victory -- but fans can take solace in knowing that they're still tied with the Oilers for the most titles among non-Original Six franchises. So, which of the Penguins' five Stanley Cup-winning teams was the best? There's no bad answer here. But let's turn to Hockey Reference's Simple Rating System (SRS) to give us a more objective measure. SRS is a team rating system that takes into account average goal differential and strength of schedule. According to that metric, the 2016-17 team (0.59 SRS) can make a claim as the best of the best. The 1991-92 Pens come in second (0.52), followed by the 2015-16 (0.5), 1990-91 (0.42) and 2008-09 (0.28) squads. Those titles are oh-so-sweet. And yet, many fans still regret that the 1992-93 powerhouse Penguins came up short. Those '92-93 Pens have the highest SRS (1.23) in franchise history, and it's not even close.
STEELERS
• Extending Haden: Joe Haden has been a Godsend since he joined the Steelers shortly before the 2017 season, re-establishing himself as the kind of top-level cornerback that the franchise has so often struggled to draft and develop internally. But the Steelers face an interesting dilemma with Haden, who can become a free agent after the 2019 season. Should they offer him a long-term deal? On one hand, Haden led all Steelers defensive backs last season in Approximate Value (AV), a Pro Football Reference stat that seeks to measure a player's overall contributions across different positions on the field and different eras. With 6 AV, he ranked just outside of the top 15 among all NFL cornerbacks in 2018. On the other hand, Haden is a 30-year-old player at a position where speed is paramount. When a corner loses a step, it can be a steep fall from being a Pro Bowl-caliber player to being on the fringes of the NFL. The only Steelers cornerbacks age 30 or older to match or exceed Haden's 2018 AV total in a season are Mel Blount, Carnell Lake, Rod Woodson, Ike Taylor, Deshea Townsend, Dewayne Washington and Dwayne Woodruff. If the Steelers extend Haden long-term, they'll be wagering that he can age more gracefully than most cornerbacks.
• Airing it out: Ben Roethlisberger seems to have found an early connection with free agent acquisition Donte Moncrief, a physical wideout who's hoping to reach new heights now that he's catching passes from a future Hall of Famer instead of Blake Bortles or Jacoby Brissett. Even in Jacksonville, Moncrief showed that he's a deep threat. He accounted for nearly a third of his team's total air yards (31 percent) in 2018, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Total air yards measures the percentage of a team's total intended air yards accounted for by one player. Moncrief ranked 13th among all NFL receivers in air yards rate in 2018, showing that even Bortles was enticed to go deep and target this 6-foot-2, 220-pound player. Moncrief could get some of the deep balls that used to go to Antonio Brown, who ranked fifth among all receivers in air yards rate (36 percent) in 2018.
• How T.J. Watt can get even better: Unlike another recent first-round outside linebacker, T.J. Watt has quickly established himself as an elite pass-rusher. Watt has registered 20 sacks over his first two NFL seasons, which is easily the most for a Steeler (LaMarr Woodley previously held the record at 15.5) and ranks just outside the top 20 among all NFL defenders since the sack became an official stat in 1982. Although Watt is already a Pro Bowl player, that doesn't mean he's a finished product -- he could stand to improve as a pass defender. Pro Football Focus gives Watt high marks as a pass rusher (a 79 grade on a 0-100 scale) and run defender (83), but he had just a 39 grade in pass defense in 2018. With Devin Bush in the fold, there may be less pressure on Watt to drop into coverage and combat tight ends and running backs. But if he can improve his coverage skills, Watt could become one of the best all-around linebackers in the game.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• (No) need for speed: As Derek Dietrich would no doubt agree, it doesn't take sprinter's speed to trot around the bases. And with home runs and extra-base power at an historic level, teams have practically forgotten about small-ball, one-run tactics -- including stolen bases. Teams have swiped an average of just 0.47 bases per game in 2019, which is the lowest rate in the majors since the 1971 campaign (0.46 per game). The de-emphasis of steals is a long-term trend. The stolen base rate has declined in each of the past nine years and has been in a free-fall since the start of the new millennium. Twenty years ago, teams averaged 0.7 steals per game.
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