Over the next six weeks, you'll hear plenty about how the Pirates are playing meaningless baseball. But, save few for a few select cornerstone players, there's 2020 playing time and career longevity at stake for most of this roster.
Take, for example, Adam Frazier.
After morphing into a Chase Utley clone following the 2018 All-Star Game -- he slugged .533 during the second half of the season, compared to .355 before the break -- Frazier earned a daily lineup spot. The Pirates let Josh Harrison walk in free agency, and installed Frazier as the club's second baseman. At age 27, he seemed poised to establish himself as a regular at one spot, instead of bouncing between three or four different positions on the diamond.
Now, with 2019 winding down, his long-term future as a starter is anything but assured. Ironically, Frazier's once-panned defense at second base has actually been solid (he has saved +4 runs compared to an average player at the position, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved metric). But his bat has declined. In 2018, Frazier posted a park and league-adjusted OPS that was 16 percent better than the overall MLB average (116 OPS+). That was tied for eighth-best among MLB second basemen with at least 350 plate appearances. This year, his 87 OPS+ (13 percent below the MLB average) ranks 15th out of 21 players at the position with 350+ plate appearances.
Where did Frazier's 2018 power surge come from, and why has it gone MIA in 2019?
Let's break it down.
Frazier turned into a slugger last year for three primary reasons: He hit more fly balls, he thrashed breaking and off-speed pitches, and he pulled the ball with unprecedented authority. Frazier is actually putting the ball in the air more often in 2019 (32.5 percent of pitches put in play, up from 31.3 percent in '18), but the other two reasons for his increased power have fizzled out.
Take a look at Frazier's slugging percentage by pitch type in 2018, compared to 2019. He has never hit for much power versus fastballs, and his performance against velocity has remained about the same. But curveballs, sliders and changeups that he laced into the gaps or ripped over the fence last year have turned into singles or harmless fly ball outs.
Last season, Frazier boasted the 27th-highest slugging percentage versus breaking balls among 473 players who saw at least 300 of that pitch type, according to MLB Statcast. In 2019, he ranks 226th out of 430 batters meeting the same criteria. Against offspeed stuff, he had the 67th highest slugging percentage out of 350 batters seeing 150 or more offspeed pitches. This year, he's 188th out of 298 batters. And that slugging decline looks less like bad luck, and more like a dip in Frazier's quality of contact. His average exit velocity against breaking pitches has declined from 88.3 mph in '18 to 86.3 mph in '19. Against offspeed pitches, his exit velocity is also down (83.3 mph in '18, 81.9 mpg in '19).
Along with hitting more fly balls, Frazier also pulled the ball more often in 2018. He's still hitting pitches to right field at a similar rate (37.8 percent in '18, 37.1 percent in '19), but they're doing little damage. When Frazier pulled the ball last year, he hit eight home runs and slugged .713. He was Josh Bell in May, basically. This year? Frazier has five pull-side home runs, but his slugging percentage has dipped to .489. For comparison's sake, the average MLB hitter has a .663 slugging percentage when pulling the ball in 2019.
Frazier never hit for much power in the minor leagues, with a career .411 slugging percentage on the farm. He was also a singles hitter in the majors before 2018, with a .402 slugging percentage in 2016-17. Given that track record, maybe we shouldn't be surprised that Frazier hasn't sustained his 2018 gains in the power department. But he made some fundamental changes to his swing and approach -- more fly balls, especially to the pull-side -- that gave you reason to think it was more than a second-half mirage. He's still lofting and pulling pitches this year, but they lack punch.
Thanks to his surprisingly good defense, Frazier hasn't been a complete zero for the Pirates this season. But the overall body of work hasn't been very compelling, either. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) total, which measures a player's batting, fielding and base running value compared to the kind of player available on the waiver wire, is 1.1 this season. That's tied for 22nd among MLB second basemen. In other words, the lower tier among regular players at the position. With Kevin Newman and Cole Tucker looking like the team's potential long-term double-play combo, Frazier could return to a multi-position utility player role in 2020 unless he starts driving pitches again. August and September will be anything but meaningless for Frazier.
MORE PIRATES
• Quality contact: Bryan Reynolds is vying for the NL batting title thanks in large part to the ridiculously hard contact that he's making. The man once traded for Andrew McCutchen is putting balls in play at a scorching 90 mph this season, according to MLB Statcast, which is more than two mph above the MLB average (87.5 mph) and ranks in the 70th percentile among all major leaguers. On the Pirates, only Josh Bell (92.8 mph) has a higher average exit velocity. Reynolds has been especially impressive on fastballs with an average exit velocity (93.7 mph) that places 15th among major leaguers with at least 100 batted ball events.
• Marte's quiet excellence: For some fans, Starling Marte is a source of frustration -- the swing-out-of-his-shoes hitting approach, the occasional lapses in effort and fundamentals. But don't let those aggravating anecdotes obscure this fact: Marte remains one of the best players on the Pirates. Marte is tied with Bell for second on the team in WAR (2.4), behind only Reynolds (2.7). Among center fielders, Marte's WAR total ranks eighth in the majors. And, among all Pirates position players through their age 30 season, he ranks 18th all-time in WAR (23.3) -- ahead of Andy Van Skyke (22.7) and Willie Stargell (22.4), among others. He may not be the MVP candidate that some think he could be based on pure talent, but he's still really good.
STEELERS
• Red zone mistakes: Ben Roethlisberger did lead the NFL in interceptions (16) last season, but that total requires context. Ben also threw far more passes (675) than any other NFL QB, and on a per-play basis, his interception rate (2.4 percent) was actually league-average and below his career rate (2.7 percent). While Roethlisberger wasn't a turnover machine overall, you can take issue with where he became INT-prone. He threw four interceptions in the red zone in 2018, with an 84.0 passer rating. During the Steelers' 13-3 campaign in 2017, Roethlisberger threw just one red zone INT while posting a 94.2 passer rating. Ben could stand to improve his accuracy and decision-making when the Steelers approach pay dirt.
• Projecting the post-AB landscape: JuJu Smith-Schuster is clearly the Steelers' No. 1 target now that Antonio Brown is generating angst (and ... frostbite?) in Oakland. So, who's poised to generate bigger receiving numbers in AB's absence? Football Outsiders' KUBIAK projection system offers some hints. KUBIAK forecasts player performance based on projected role, performance over the past two seasons, quality of the player's offense and opposition, strength of schedule, and historical comparables. Smith-Schuster (1,325 projected receiving yards) is by far the leader of the pack. After that, it's Donte Moncrief (740 yards), tight end Vance McDonald (668), James Washington (633) and Diontae Johnson (378 yards). Don't forget about the sure-handed running backs, either: James Conner is projected for 519 receiving yards, and Jaylen Samuels is forecast for 182.
• A Bud Breakout? Outside linebacker Bud Dupree is huge (6-foot-4, 270 pounds), fast (4.56 40-yard time at the NFL combine) and he entered the league with hype that he could emerge as an elite pass rusher despite never reaching double-digit sacks while at Kentucky. After four years, Dupree has racked up only 20 sacks and ranks 54th among all NFL in that category since the start of the 2015 season. And yet, the Dupree hype train hasn't completely derailed -- at least if you listen to Steelers defensive coaches and GM Kevin Colbert, who brought Dupree back in 2019 for $9.2 million. Why? While he hasn't flattened QBs often enough, he does generate pressure. Dupree had 27 QB hurries in 2018, according to Football Outsiders. That ranked pretty close to the 33 QB hurries created by T.J. Watt. If you're an optimist, you see a player who is in position to make big plays and could convert more of them moving forward. If you're a pessimist, you see a guy who can't finish the job when he has the chance to swing the game in the Steelers' favor.
PENGUINS
• Winning the WAR: While the baseball equivalent is much more well-known, hockey has its own version of Wins Above Replacement thanks to the Corsica Hockey website. Hockey WAR takes into account a skater's offensive and defensive contributions -- including shot volume and shot quality on both sides of the puck, penalties committed and generated, and zone transitions. So, who led the Pens in WAR last year? The answer may surprise you, at least a little bit. With 4.7 WAR, Jake Guentzel ranked eighth among all NHL skaters in 2018-19. He led the team by a considerable margin, too, with Sidney Crosby ranking second at 2.5 WAR and Matt Murray third at 2.0 WAR. In case you're curious, Jack Johnson (-1.4 WAR) brought up the rear, followed by Derick Brassard (-1.0) and Matt Cullen (-0.7).
• Blueger's D: By all accounts, Teddy Blueger is poised to grab the Penguins' fourth-line center role in 2019-20. It remains to be seen how much the 25-year-old Latvian contributes offensively (he had 10 points in 28 games in the NHL last year, and 39 in 45 contests in the AHL), but he certainly looks ready for the defense-focused assignment. Blueger started about 61 percent of his face-offs in the defensive zone with the Penguins last year, which is the highest rate among returning Penguins forwards. With Blueger skating at even strength, Pittsburgh allowed just 1.2 goals per 60 minutes and 22.9 scoring chances, according to Natural Stat Trick. Blueger had the lowest even-strength goals against rate and second-lowest rate of scoring chances allowed among Penguins forwards who skated at least 250 minutes in such situations. It was only 28 NHL games, but Blueger made a favorable impression in terms of shutting down opponents.
• Unlucky Hornqvist? The Penguins have a lot riding on Patric Hornqvist regaining his health and normal performance level next season. Hornqvist, 32, who has had a number of concussions and will make $5.3 million annually through 2022-23, posted the lowest full-season goal total (18) of his NHL career. If you're looking for a return to his typical goal-scoring rate, here's some good news. Corsica Hockey measures a player's expected goal total, which is measured based on shot volume, shot location and game situation. According to that metric, Hornqvist should have had about 25 goals last year. That's actually above his average total during his five-year Penguins career (23). Hornqvist, despite age and health issues, is still going to the parts of the ice that tend to reward players. He could get a few more greasy goals next year.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Older arms succeeding: MLB continues to track younger overall, but there is a gap between the average age of position players (28.1 years old) and pitchers (28.6) in 2019. And there's a reason: While many post-30-year-old position players are hitting the wall, the pitchers still healthy enough to take the mound are generating value. According to Fangraphs, position players age 30 and older have been worth a combined 94.3 WAR this season. Pitchers age 30 or older, meanwhile, have contributed 125 WAR. Of the top 10 pitchers in WAR, seven are at least 30 years old. None of the top 10 position players in WAR is 30 or older. It's a young man's game in the field, but less so on the bump.
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