When a franchise is careening toward a 100-plus loss season, there are no shortage of deficiencies at both the major- and minor-league level. The Pirates' busted rotation -- and seemingly busted pitching development pipeline -- justifiably get most of the attention. But there's also a serious concern with the other end of the battery.
One year after boasting one of the most productive catching tandems in the game, the Pirates are patching together a time-share at the top level with Jacob Stallings and Elias Diaz. Neither one of those guys necessarily profiles as an everyday option -- and if you're looking for reinforcements on the farm, it could be a while.
This club is in the midst of a catching crisis.
In 2018, the Pirates' catching situation was the envy of most teams. Francisco Cervelli arguably had the best year of his career, and Diaz broke out. Led by those two, the Pirates had the fourth-most Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at the position, with 4.2. WAR measures overall hitting, base running and defensive value compared to the kind of production that you would expect from a fringe major-league player. Even if Cervelli dealt with injury problems or departed via free agency, the team could turn to Diaz as the long-term option moving forward.
Or so they thought. Cervelli once again dealt with concussion problems in 2019 and was subsequently ineffective before being recently granted his release. He's now an Atlanta Brave. Diaz, meanwhile, has been perhaps the most disappointing player on a team with several candidates. Stallings has finally cracked the majors for more than a cameo, but at 29 looks more like a quality backup than a guy you want making 100-plus starts in a season. Overall, the Pirates have received -0.6 WAR from the catching position this year. That's fourth-worst among all teams.
Let's start with Stallings, who is the only member of this season's catching troika to post a positive WAR this season (+0.9). The longtime minor-leaguer has quickly become a favorite of pitchers, and understandably so. According to Baseball Prospectus, Stallings has been +3 runs better than an average defensive catcher at framing pitches -- in other words, getting favorable calls on borderline pitches around the strike zone. He has also been +2 runs above average in blocking pitches, and +1 run above average in controlling the running game. With +6 fielding runs overall, Stallings ranks 15th among all catchers despite his part-time status. He has thrown out half of runners who have attempted a steal, way above the 27 percent MLB average in 2019. He brings legitimate value behind the plate.
At the plate, Stallings' production is more modest. Although he hasn't gotten the bat knocked out of his hands, his park- and league-adjusted batting line is 15 percent below the overall MLB average. That's adequate lumber by the standards of catchers (MLB backstops have an adjusted line that is 15 percent below average this season). Considering his age and that he's got a career .725 On-Base-Plus Slugging percentage in more than 850+ Triple-A plate appearances, what you see is probably what you get with Stallings.
Diaz, by contrast, has never been known for his defense. Although Stallings has saved about +6 runs above average with his deft pitch-framing, pitch-blocking and arm, Diaz ranks dead last among MLB catchers with -14 fielding runs (per Baseball Prospectus). Diaz has been about average in pitch-blocking and in throwing out runners (25 percent caught-stealing rate), but horrendous in pitch-framing.
You might be able to tolerate that shaky glove work if Diaz continued to hit like he did in 2018, when his adjusted batting line was 14 percent above the overall MLB average. That ranked sixth among all catchers with 250+ plate appearances. Instead, Diaz's power surge from '18 has vanished. His adjusted batting line is 36 percent below average, which ranks 28th out of 30 backstops who have 250+ plate appearances in 2019. A year after hitting 10 homers, he has gone deep just once. His slugging percentage versus breaking pitches his been nearly cut in half (.530 in 2018, .278 in 2019, according to MLB Statcast). Overall, Diaz has been worth -1.2 WAR -- second-worst among all big league catchers. Last year, he was at +1.8 WAR as a part-time starter. Instead of strengthening his status as the long-term option, Diaz has performed like a Triple-A-caliber player this year.
The Pirates are fond of projections. They may have different evaluations of Stallings and Diaz, but one of the most well-known and vetted projection systems -- ZiPS -- doesn't forecast starter-worthy production from either player next year. ZiPS forecasts player performance based on multiyear production at the major- and minor-league level and historical aging patterns. According to ZiPS, Stallings and Diaz project to struggle offensively. And, even with what looks like a very kind defensive forecast for Diaz, he falls short of starting-level production over the course of a season.
For comparison's sake, +2 WAR is considered a general baseline for league-average production for a starter. Neither one of these guys figures to reach that level next year. Don't look for minor league reinforcements, either. According to MLB Pipeline, there isn't a single catcher among the club's top 30 prospects.
So, entering the offseason, the Pirates must make a decision: Hope for the best from Stallings and Diaz -- and probably get lackluster results -- or explore the free agent and trade market (Milwaukee's Yasmani Grandal could be the big fish on the market, if he declines his portion of a $16 million mutual option for 2020). Whoever's running this franchise this winter shouldn't stand pat at catcher.
MORE PIRATES
• Crick's meltdown: Kyle Crick's 2019 season is a prime example of just how volatile relief pitching performance can be. One year after establishing himself as a critical high-leverage option for manager Clint Hurdle, Crick has gone from a fireman to an arsonist. His walk rate (3.4 per nine innings pitched in 2018, 6.3 in 2019) and home run rate (0.5 in '18, 1.7 in '19) have skyrocketed, and his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), a modified ERA metric, has climbed from 3.14 to 5.73. FIP estimates a pitcher's ERA based on strikeouts, walks and homers allowed. Perhaps the best way to show how much Crick's struggles have harmed the Pirates is by comparing his Win Probability Added (WPA) between 2018 and 2019. WPA measures the number of wins that a pitcher adds or subtracts from his team's total, while adjusting for the importance of the game situation. If a pitcher shuts down a late-inning rally in a tight game, his WPA gets a big boost. Conversely, if he blows the game, his WPA gets dented pretty badly. The more high-pressure the situation, the bigger the change in a pitcher's WPA. Last year, Crick had +1.4 WPA (meaning he added 1.4 more wins compared to an average pitcher, when adjusting for game situations). This year, he has a -1.7 WPA. Crick has the 12th-worst WPA among all MLB relievers this season. When the game's on the line, he's getting crushed.
• One wicked slider: Mitch Keller's early-career work is drawing some comparisons to Tyler Glasnow -- and not the reformed, dominant version seen this spring in Tampa Bay. But here's a piece of good news. As a top-rated prospect, Keller was often lauded for his big-breaking, 12-to-6 curveball. But in the majors, he has flashed another potentially plus breaking pitch: Keller has thrown a high-80s slider nearly a quarter of the time (23.5 percent of his total pitches), and the results have been deadly. The 23-year-old righty has limited hitters to a .321 slugging percentage off his slider (.394 average for MLB starting pitchers) and has generated a whiff 53.5 percent of the time that batters have swung at the pitch, according to MLB Statcast. When opponents actually manage to make contact against Keller's slider, they're putting the pitch in play with an average exit velocity of just 81.3 mph (the third-lowest exit velocity for starters who have thrown at least 50 sliders this season). It has been a bumpy ride for Keller overall, but the top-line stuff is there.
STEELERS
• Missing the bandit: While there's understandably lots of talk about how the Steelers' offense will adjust to the loss of Antonio Brown, the Steelers are also missing another important pass catcher in Jesse James. James, who signed a lucrative long-term deal with the Detroit Lions this offseason, was one of the most productive receiving tight ends in the NFL on a per-play basis last season. James snagged 77 percent of passes thrown his way in 2018, which ranked third among tight ends who were targeted at least 35 times. He also ranked third in receiving yards per target (10.9) at the position. Football Outsiders estimates that James was about 27 percent better than an average receiving tight end on a per-play basis last year, trailing only Tampa Bay's O.J. Howard (44 percent above average) and Baltimore's Mark Andrews (36 percent). The Steelers just didn't have the cap room to retain James, and never seemed to really embrace him as a starter. Vance McDonald is plenty capable as a receiver, too, but I wouldn't bet on Xavier Grimble or Zach Gentry displaying James' reliable hands or field-stretching ability in 2019.
• Challenge accepted: When the Steelers signed free agent cornerback Steven Nelson to a three-year, $25.5 million contract (albeit with only $7.5 million of that total guaranteed), some fans were puzzled. After all, Nelson was targeted a whopping 109 times while with the Kansas City Chiefs last season, the most among all NFL cornerbacks. But the number requires some context -- teams often trailed the Chiefs last year, which means they passed more often against KC's defense (61.2 percent of total offensive plays, the eighth-highest clip among teams). And when Nelson,26, was targeted, he held his own. He allowed receivers to gain an average of seven yards when he was targeted in 2018, which was the 28th-best rate among all NFL corners (according to Football Outsiders). Nelson might not be an elite-level player, but he's a solid complement to the recently-extended Joe Haden.
• D-line pressure: When you think of the Steelers' defense racking up sacks, images of outside linebackers knocking QBs into next week probably come to mind. But the present-day Steelers D has a more diversified group of players getting sacks. Last year, Pittsburgh's defensive linemen generated 40.4 percent of the team's NFL-best 52 sacks. That was the sixth-highest percentage of team sacks tallied by defensive linemen. Cam Heyward, Javon Hargrave and Stephon Tuitt can bring the heat, too.
PENGUINS
• The Crosby boost: Coach Mike Sullivan's lines are always changing, but the surest thing is that Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel will skate together in 2019-20. The other top-line wing position, though, is up for grabs. One candidate is Jared McCann, the speedy former Florida Panther. So, how did McCann fare during his top-line audition last year? When McCann skated with both Crosby and Guentzel during five-on-five play, the Penguins created 54.3 percent of total shots, 57 percent of scoring chances and 58.3 percent of goals, according to Natural Stat Trick. McCann clearly got a boost from Sid and Guentzel. When he skated without those two, the Penguins had 47.8 percent of total shots, 51.1 percent of scoring chances and 50 percent of goals. When Crosby and Guentzel skated at even strength with a winger other than McCann, meanwhile, the Pens had 55.2 percent of shots, 56.9 percent of scoring chances and 67.7 percent of goals. The bottom line: McCann had decent chemistry with Crosby and Guentzel, but those two stars had success with virtually every winger who took the ice with them.
• I laugh at danger: Matt Murray re-established himself as one of the game's best young goalies last season, in no small part thanks to his performance against opponents' most lethal shot attempts. Corsica Hockey tracks the quality of shots that goalies faced based on factors like shot distance, shot angle, shot type and game situation. They categorize shots as high, medium and low danger based on those factors. During his relatively down 2017-18 campaign, Murray had a 78 percent high-danger save rate during even-strength play. That ranked 57th among NHL goalies. Last year, Murray boosted his high-danger save rate to 83.9 percent. That placed 11th among goalies, and eighth among netminders with 1,000+ minutes of five-on-five ice time. When the Penguins needed a key save, Murray rose to the occasion.
• I am the danger: The Penguins unleashed the fourth-most shots among NHL teams, but you could make the case that the quality of those shots didn't quite reach the impeccable standards that they set in recent years. The HockeyViz website tracks the "threat level" of a team's shots compared to the league average, based on many of the same factors described in the note above about Murray. In 2018-19, the Penguins had a shot threat level that was 8 percent above the NHL average during five-on-five play. Pretty good. But that's down from a +13 percent threat level in 2017-18, and a +18 percent threat level during the second of their back-to-back Stanley Cup wins in 2016-17. The offense is still dangerous, but it's not as scary as it was during their recent Cup-winning days.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Shifty business: Love them or hate them, defensive shifts have become a staple of team strategy in MLB. Teams have already deployed a defensive shift 44,129 times in 2019, according to Fangraphs. That's already a new full-season record, and beats out the 40,730 shifts used in 2018. A decade ago, teams shifted in just 3,323 plate appearances. Those shifts remain effective, with batters posting a park- and league-adjusted batting line that is 22 percent below the overall MLB average when teams shuffle their defenders. (They were 17 percent below average in 2018.) How have the Pirates fared with the shift? Their batters haven't been shifted against much (26th in MLB), and they have an adjusted offensive line that's 9 percent below average (fourth-best among teams). On the pitching/defense side, the Pirates have deployed the fourth-most shifts among all teams. They also have the worst adjusted line among all teams. Pirates hitters are faring well versus the shift. The pitchers and fielders? Not so much.
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