The Steelers' Sunday night showdown with the Patriots quickly devolved into a clunker. The passing attack, sans new Patriot Antonio Brown, was limited to quick-hit passes. Receivers outside of JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington were either drop-prone or were dropped to the turf right after the catch. The run game, a catalyst in last December's 17-10 triumph against New England, was nonexistent. And a seemingly turbo charged defense -- speedier linebackers, a deeper assortment of corners -- was eviscerated by a Patriots squad no longer employing Rob Gronkowski, while starting a safety from the now-defunct Alliance of American Football.
Hey, at least Chris Boswell connected on a field goal.
The game, to put it mildly, was an abject disaster. But just where does the Steelers' 33-3 setback to kick off the 2019 season rank in terms of their historical struggles with Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the unkillable Patriots? Let's take a closer and look.
The Steelers have squared off with Belichick 16 times (regular season and playoffs combined) since the Darth Hoodie took over as the Patriots' head coach in 2000. Pittsburgh is 4-12 in those games, while getting outscored by a combined 338 to 454 (-116 point differential). So, it hasn't gone well. But even by those standards, the Steelers' 2019 beatdown at the hands of the Patriots was notable. Consider:
• The Steelers allowed 472 total yards to the Patriots, which is the second-most that they have surrendered against New England during the Belichick era (per Pro Football Reference). The only time that Pittsburgh has given up more yardage versus the Patriots since 2000 came on Nov. 3, 2013, when they coughed up 610 total yards in a 55-31 loss.
• Conversely, Pittsburgh gained a mere 308 yards against the Patriots. That's the fourth-lowest total of the Belichick era. The only times the offense struggled this badly came in 2005 (269 total yards on Sept. 25 in a 23-20 loss), 2002 (283 on Sept. 9 in a 30-14 loss) and 2002 (306 on Jan. 27, in a 27-14 defeat for the AFC title).
• Brady has largely owned the Steelers over the years, as evidenced by a career 111.1 passer rating in the regular season and a 118.6 mark in the playoffs. His latest showing, a 124.9 rating, bests even that ridiculous standard. He threw for 341 yards (above his 312 career average versus the Steelers in the regular season, and and 235 average in the postseason), and his average yards per attempt (9.5) was well above his overall rate both in the regular season (8.3) and playoffs (8.7). Tom was even more terrific than usual.
• Sunday night was, by a healthy margin, the most lopsided Steelers-Patriots matchup of the Belichick era:
This wasn't just the biggest beatdown for the Steelers during the Belichick era -- it also was one of their worst defeats of the post-merger era (1970-present) against any team. The only other times that the Steelers have been outplayed so thoroughly came in 1989 (51-point loss to Cleveland), 1983 (-42 to Detroit), 1988 (-35 to Cincinnati), 1986 (-34 to New England), 1989 (-31 to Cincinnati), 2016 (-31 to Philadelphia), 1986 (-30 to Seattle) and 1997 (-30 to Dallas).
One loss, apocalyptic as it seemed, does not wipe away the Steelers' hopes for the 2019 season. But Sunday night offered a stark, sullen reminder of just how good the Patriots remain two decades into the Brady-Belichick era. It's one thing to lose to the defending Super Bowl champs. It's quite another to look like one of Mike Tyson's knockout first-round KO victims in the late '80s while doing so.
MORE STEELERS
• Debut dud: Free agent wide receiver Donte Moncrief generated plenty of hype during the offseason. Catching passes from Roethlisberger rather than the Blake Bortles and Jacoby Brissetts of the world, Moncrief seemed poised for a breakthrough 2019 season. That could still happen -- but Moncrief may have been the most disappointing Steeler during an awful night in New England. Moncrief was targeted 10 times on Sunday night, yet he managed to haul in just three passes for 7 yards. He dropped four balls (most among NFL receivers in Week 1, and nearly as many as he had in all of 2018), including what would have been a touchdown when the Steelers at least had a prayer of forging a comeback. Moncrief had the third-lowest grade among all NFL receivers in Week 1, according to Pro Football Focus' 0-100 scale. His grade was 42.3. There's nowhere to go but up from here, right?
• Airing it out: Perhaps the biggest difference between the dysfunctional Steelers offense and the humming Patriots attack on Sunday night came on medium and deep-range balls. On passes thrown at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, Roethlisberger was a combined 4 of 15 for 109 yards and one interception, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He averaged 7.3 yards per pass attempt in that range. Brady, meanwhile, was 6 of 10 for 182 yards and two touchdowns (18.2 yards per pass attempt). Roethlisberger didn't get much help from his receivers, but the Steelers couldn't get anything going other than shallow, dink-and-dunk passes.
PIRATES
• Fastball first: Steven Brault is largely succeeding as a starting pitcher, compiling a 3.70 ERA and a 4.21 Fielding Independent ERA in 16 outings (FIP is based on walks, strikeouts and homers allowed). The formerly control-challenged spot starter and long relief man has achieved those results in large part by forgetting that he has secondary pitches. Brault has thrown his low-90s fastball 69 percent of the time as a starter, which according to Fangraphs is the second-highest rate among all MLB starting pitchers with 50+ innings this season. Only Texas' Lance Lynn (71 percent) relies on the heat more often. Since the beginning of August, Brault has thrown his fastball 73 percent of the time. In terms of pitching approach, Brault's turning into a left-handed Bartolo Colon.
• Stumbling out of the gate: Mitch Keller, the Pirates' top pitching prospect and the reigning International League Pitcher of the Year, has basically face planted during his first stint in the majors. Keller has showcased power stuff at times -- mid-90s fastball, sharp slider, big 12-to-6 curve -- and he has managed to punch out about 28 percent of batters faced. But he also carries a ghastly 8.18 ERA. Just how bad is that figure? Only six starting pitchers during MLB's Expansion Era (1961-present) have ever posted a higher ERA than Keller's during their first season in the majors (minimum 30 innings pitched). No one in Pirates history has ever been drubbed quite like Keller while making their MLB debut. Brad Lincoln is the next closest, with an unholy 6.66 ERA back in 2010. Keller could still have an excellent career long-term, but fans were surely hoping for a smoother transition for one of the Pirates' last ambulatory arms with All-Star potential.
• Pitching backward: From receiving an internal suspension to admittedly throwing at opponents, Keone Kela has experienced an ... interesting 2019 season. But for as many curveballs as he has thrown Pirates fans, he's throwing even more to batters. Kela has increased his curveball usage from 35 percent in 2018 to 44 percent in 2019, according to MLB Statcast. That curve is lethal, with the pitch limiting hitters to a .217 slugging percentage this season (.378 MLB average for relievers). Kela might be relying even more on his top-notch breaking balls because he has lost some confidence in his four-seam fastball (thrown 53 percent of the time in '19, compared to 63 percent last year). Batters are clobbering Kela's fastball for a .600 slugging percentage, up from .452 in 2018 (.483 MLB average).
PENGUINS
• Replacing Phil on the PP: The Penguins featured a characteristically lethal power play in 2018-19, ranking fifth in the NHL with a 24.6 percent conversion rate. But they have to replace a major part of the PP now that Phil Kessel is an Arizona Coyote. Kessel has potted 36 power play goals since the start of the 2015-16 season, which ranks just outside of the top 20 among all skaters. The main player whom the Pens acquired in the Kessel deal, Alex Galchenyuk, could help fill the void. Galchenyuk has 33 power play goals since 2015-16. His power play responsibility has grown, too, as he averaged a career-high 3:11 of PP time last year (compared to 2:57 in 2017-18 and 2:16 in 2016-17). Galchenyuk might not have as prominent a role with the man advantage here -- not on a team with Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin —
but he's capable of burying some shots.
• Lighting the lamp: The 2018-19 season was a charmed one for Jake Guentzel, who established himself as Crosby's new wing man, earned a $6 million per year contract extension, and scored 40 goals. The former third-round pick out of Nebraska-Omaha has shown a rare ability to net goals during the early stages of his career. Guentzel has scored 78 goals during his first three NHL seasons, which ranks behind only Mario Lemieux (145 goals), Evgeni Malkin (115), Pierre Larouche (113), Rob Brown (106), Crosby (99) and Jaromir Jagr (93) in Penguins franchise history. And that's with Guentzel only getting a partial NHL season in 2016-17. With Sid creating havoc in front of the net and making silky-smooth passes, Guentzel should push well beyond 100 careers goals next year.
• Galchenyuk's D: Galchenyuk could see significant power play time in Pittsburgh, and he does have a 30-goal season to his name (2015-16). But he could stand to improve on the other side of the puck, to put it kindly. Over the past three seasons, Galchenyuk's teams have surrendered 3.7 percent more shots during five-on-five play when he is on the ice compared to when he's not skating, according to Natural Stat Trick. That's the 10th-worst relative shot rate among all NHL forwards who logged at least 1,000 even-strength minutes over that time frame. Galchenyuk's teams have also allowed 5.3 percent more scoring chances when he's skating during five-on-five situations compared to when he's on the bench (second-worst among all forwards). Kessel could get away with poor or indifferent defense because he was an elite scorer. If you're going to resemble Kessel away from the puck, you’d better score rack up more than 40 or 50 points.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Old gunslingers: Certain positions in the NFL -- think running back, receiver and cornerback -- are a young man's trade. That's not the case at quarterback, where a growing number of players are maintaining peak form while practically nearing AARP eligibility. Pro Football Reference tracks a stat called Passer Rating Index, which adjusts a QB's passer rating for the offensive era in which he played. A rating of 100 is average, while above 100 means that a QB is better than average. During the post-merger era, there have been 25 player seasons where a QB had a Passer Rating Index of at least 120 (meaning 20 percent better than the NFL average). Two of those seasons happened in 2018, with Drew Brees turning in a 134 rating (second-best all time among age 35+ QBs) at age 39 and Philip Rivers checking in at 120 during his age-37 season. Peyton Manning set the all-time record with a 137 rating at age 37 back in 2013. Tom Brady turned in the fifth-best old QB campaign back in 2016 (133 at age 39). And if Sunday's performance against the Steelers is any indication, he could author another epic old QB season. With QB-friendly rule changes that reduce physical punishment and a shift to quick-hitting passes that limit opportunities to get clobbered, QBs can shine at an age where they were once long retired.
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