The Mason Rudolph era is officially here, and far sooner than anyone had expected or desired.
With Ben Roethlisberger shockingly out for the entire 2019 season, the Steelers' dimming playoff hopes now rest upon the right arm of their 2018 third-round selection. The third-string QB on the depth chart a year ago, considered a wasted pick by some fans with Roethlisberger figuring to play several more years, is now perhaps the team's most important player.
Let's break down Rudolph's regular-season debut, and see what kind of production we might expect from the guy Kevin Colbert said garnered a first-round grade from the franchise leading up to the 2018 draft.
For once, Rudolph's gun slinging came in support of the home team at Heinz Field. The former Oklahoma State star, who habitually tortured Pitt fans in college, finished his first NFL game that counted with 12 completions on 19 attempts (63.2 percent). He tossed a pair of touchdown passes to Vance McDonald and one interception that was entirely Donte Moncrief's fault.
His 92.4 passer rating was respectable, if not prolific. Of the 32 QBs who attempted at least 15 passes during Week 2, Rudolph ranked 15th in passer rating. But, believe it or not, you can make the case that Rudolph actually had the best NFL debut of any QB in Steelers history. He has the highest passer rating for a Steelers QB in his first NFL game during the post-merger era (1970-present), among players with 15+ attempts.
NFL's Next Gen Stats offer some insights on why Colbert and the Steelers held Rudolph in high regard. Rudolph threw an absolute bullet to JuJu Smith-Schuster for a 45-yard gain that required serious arm strength and precision. The flea flicker play had just a 22 percent probability of becoming a completion, according to Next Gen Stats. Completion probability accounts for the difficulty of a throw by measuring the distance of the pass, the game situation (down and distance), and the defensive coverage that the QB and receiver faced. That tied for the fifth-most difficult pass completed by a QB in Week 2. The completed air distance of that throw--how far the ball traveled to Smith-Schuster--was 50.1 yards. That was the sixth-longest completed air distance on a pass in Week 2. It was just one pass, but it showcased what Rudolph can bring to the table.
Rudolph was especially effective when throwing to the middle of the field. Per Next Gen Stats, he completed six of nine pass attempts to the middle, including both TD passes to McDonald. While he showed his arm strength on that bomb to Smith-Schuster, he mostly stuck to short passes (13 of his attempts were within ten yards of the line of scrimmage). Some of that was circumstance--the Steelers took over near the goal line a few times thanks to turnovers--but the novice QB mostly looked to short and medium-range receiving options.
We have a long, long way to go to determine where Rudolph's NFL career falls on a scale of Big Ben to Bubby Brister. But what's a reasonable expectation for the 24-year-old? Football Outsiders projects QB stats based on factors like collegiate performance, historically comparable players, the quality of the QB's offensive line and skill players, and strength of schedule. It's not a perfect forecast, but it's one of the better tools out there.
Football Outsiders projects that over the course of a full season, Rudolph would complete about 60 percent of his passes, throw 22 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, and average about 240 yards per game. On a per-pass basis, they project that Rudolph would be about ten percent worse than an average NFL quarterback. For comparison's sake, Roethlisberger was about 15 percent above average on a per-pass basis in 2018 and was forecast to be 17 percent above average in 2019. Not surprisingly, there's a huge gap in expected performance here.
The Steelers' playoff hopes are already on life support (Football Outsiders gives them just a 15 percent chance of reaching the postseason), but Rudolph's play will largely determine whether they stay competitive or end up buried in the AFC North standings. Now, it's up to him to prove that he's worthy of being Roethlisberger's long-term successor.
MORE STEELERS
• Running game still MIA: The Steelers entered 2019 hoping--or perhaps just plain needing to--establish more balance on offense. Pittsburgh ran the ball just 32.6 percent of the time last year, which was the second-lowest rate among all teams (Green Bay was last, at 32.5 percent). Instead, the Steelers have become even more imbalanced. They're running the ball a mere 25.9 percent of the time so far, placing ahead of only Arizona (25 percent), Miami (25 percent) and Cincinnati (24.4 percent). On a related note, those four teams (including Pittsburgh) have a combined record of 0-7-1. Pittsburgh is averaging just 3.9 yards per attempt (21st in the league and down from 4.2 last year), but they need to give James Conner, Jaylen Samuels and Benny Snell more of a chance to get going. Nobody wins while throwing the ball three-quarters of the time--and that was the case before the Steelers lost a Hall of Fame-bound QB for the year.
• 'Backers getting beat? Tired of getting torched by tight ends, running backs and slot receivers in a post-Ryan Shazier landscape, the Steelers invested heavily in quicker, sleeker linebackers who could presumably keep pace. Through the first two games, those investments haven't exactly paid off. Free agent pickup Mark Barron has a pass coverage grade of 60 (on a scale of 0-100) according to Pro Football Focus' rating system. And that's actually the best pass coverage grade among Steelers inside linebackers. 2019 number ten overall pick Devin Bush, who was posterized a few times in Week 2 by Seattle TE Will Dissly, has a 40 coverage grade. That's the seventh-lowest among inside 'backers with enough snaps to qualify for a grade. Vince Williams checks in with a 58 grade. It's just two games, but the gaping holes over the middle are still there. And with All-Pro TE George Kittle and the 49ers up next, the Steelers need fast and vast improvement from Barron, Bush and Williams.
PIRATES
• Keller crushed: Mitch Keller's four-seam fastball hums toward home plate at an average velocity of 95.5 mph. Unfortunately, it's getting hammered into play at warp speed. Opponents are batting a mind-boggling .456 against Keller's four-seamer, with a .721 slugging percentage, according to MLB Statcast. Among starters with at least 50 batted ball events, Keller has the highest opponent batting average on his four-seamer among all starting pitchers (by 90 points) and the fifth-highest opponent slugging percentage. Why is Keller's fastball, thrown about 60 percent of the time, getting obliterated? Spotty command of the pitch is a big reason. Keller has thrown his four-seamer belt-high (horizontal middle of the plate) about 30 percent of the time. The MLB average for starters is about 21 percent. Twelve percent of Keller's fastballs have caught both the horizontal and middle of the plate--well above the eight percent big league average. If you're putting the pitch on a tee, even mid-90s gas is easy to hit.
• Coming up short? With a quality 2019 season, Kevin Newman has made the case that he should be a long-term starter in Pittsburgh. But where? Newman is currently playing shortstop, but fellow first-round pick Cole Tucker could end up at that position, too. Newman's early work at short suggests he might be better off shifting to the other side of the double-play combo. Newman has been -8 runs worse than an average defensive shortstop, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric. DRS measures a player's defensive prowess based on range, arm, errors and turning the double play. Of the 27 MLB shortstops who have logged at least 700 innings at the position this season, Newman ranks 22nd in DRS. Newman ranks 21st among that same group in plays made outside of the typical defensive zones for shortstops. He's fairly sure-handed and turns double plays well, but his range might be a bit short for this premium spot on the diamond.
• Comparing bombs: First baseman Josh Bell has a shot of becoming just the third Pirate ever to author a 40 home run season. Ralph Kiner accomplished that feat five times (while slugging his way past the 50 HR mark twice), and Willie Stargell did it twice. Clearly, Bell plays in a different offensive era than Kiner did in the late 1940s and early '50s, and Stargell did in the 1970s. But just how different? And just how many homers would Kiner and Pops hit if we could somehow transport them to PNC Park circa 2019? Baseball Reference's neutralizer tool offers a potential answer. The tool adjusts a player's offensive stats to a particular run environment. It adjusts for park effects and just how homer-happy a particular time in history happens to be. According to Baseball-Reference, Kiner would have clubbed 57 home runs in 1949 (rather than 54) if he had played in the same kind of offensive environment as PNC Park in 2019. He would have mashed 53 homers in 1947 (rather than 51). Stargell, meanwhile, would have seen his homer total rise to 53 in 1971 (instead of 48) if he could have taken tilt-a-whirl cuts at PNC Park this year. Bell's 2019 performance is still impressive. But man, could Kiner and Stargell go deep.
PENGUINS
• Geno in the box: Evgeni Malkin is coming off a relatively down season by his remarkably high standards. During five-on-five play last year, the Penguins generated just half of total shots with Malkin on the ice (his lowest shot share in a decade) and less than half of total goals scored (48.9 percent, also his lowest rate in a decade). Here's another even-strength improvement point for Malkin: staying out of the penalty box. Malkin averaged 4.4 penalty minutes per 60 minutes of five-on-five ice time last year, which was nearly double his rate from 2017-18 (2.3 per 60 minutes). He had the second-highest penalty minutes rate of all forwards who skated at least 500 minutes at even strength. The only guy ahead of him? Old friend Tom Wilson, at 5.9 penalty minutes per hour of five-on-five skating.
• The case for Simon: Few players elicit a stronger reaction from the fan base than Dominik Simon. Some see a lower-upside, bottom six forward who has been miscast as a winger on Sidney Crosby's top line. Others, including coach Mike Sullivan see a guy who helps the Penguins control the puck and who complements Sid's game. Sullivan isn't crazy to think that in terms of process, Simon and Crosby click. Crosby's line dominated in terms of percentage of total goals scored during five-on-five-play whether he was skating with Simon (63.6 percent, according to Natural Stat Trick) or with another winger (66.3 percent). But the Penguins did generate a higher share of scoring chances when Crosby and Simon were on the ice (62.4 percent) compared to when Sid skated without Simon (54.5 percent). Same for high-danger scoring chances (68 percent when Sid skated with Simon, 56.2 percent without). Simon needs to cash in more of his own scoring chances to justify top-line minutes, but he brings something to the table.
• High danger, no problem: Matt Murray is poised to cash in on a long-term contract in the not-too-distant future (cap space permitting), and he can point to a high-quality 2018-19 season (not to mention a pair of Stanley Cups) to burnish his case. Murray had the sixth-most difficult quality of shots faced among goalies who had at least 1,000 minutes of even-strength ice time last season, according to Corsica Hockey. He ranked eighth among goalies crossing the 1,000 minute mark in high-danger save rate (.839)--the shots that have the best odds of becoming a goal based on shot location, shot type and game situation. Overall, he ranked ninth in goals saved above average per 30 shots (+0.26), which ranks players based on how many goals they allow compared to an average net minder while adjusting for shot quality. And, if you're looking at overall body of work, Murray has the best high-danger save rate among all NHL goalies since 2015-16 (minimum 3,000 minutes at five-on-five) at .844, and he's ninth in goals saved above average per 30 shots. He bails out the Penguins when they allow juicy scoring opportunities, and overall, you can make a strong case he's a top-10 goalie. He will, and should, get paid.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• We're out of fireworks: The home run barrage shows no signs of slowing. Teams are clubbing an average of 1.4 homers per game in 2019, which would shatter the previous single-season high of 1.26 set in 2017. About 63 percent of those bombs have come on fastballs, per MLB Statcast, while 25 percent have come on breaking pitches and 12 percent on offspeed stuff. For comparison's sake, MLB pitchers have thrown about 58 percent fastballs, 28 percent breaking stuff, and 14 percent offspeed pitches overall. No pitch is off limits, but fastballs are more likely to end up in the (relatively) cheap seats.
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