Stats 'N' At: Why the O-Line decline? ☕ taken in Downtown (Penguins)

MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

For years, the Steelers' offensive line created clean pockets and gaping running lanes for some of the game's brightest offensive stars. Unfortunately, in this post-Killer B and post-Mike Munchak era, the excellence of the guys up front hasn't been there. A unit that has long been considered among the NFL's best -- if not the best -- has been a major culprit in this nightmarish 0-3 start.

Under Munchak, who's now coaching the Broncos' O-line, the Steelers extracted maximum value and performance from big men who ranged from former first-round picks (Maurkice PounceyDavid DeCastro) to undrafted free agents (Alejandro Villanueva, Ramon Foster, Matt Feiler). But through the first three weeks of 2019, the line has underachieved.

Consider:

• Last year, the Steelers ranked 15th in the NFL with an average of 4.44 Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) per rushing attempt. ALY is a Football Outsiders stat that measures an offensive line's ability to open up holes for running backs based on down, distance, situation and opponent. Rushing yards gained closer to the line of scrimmage are credited more to the O-line, while yards gained farther down the field are credited more to the running back. In 2019, the Steelers rank 25th in ALY, with an average of just 3.65 per rushing attempt. Pittsburgh's linemen were successful in creating space for rushers around the ends last year. This season? Not so much. The Steelers placed fifth in ALY on carries to the left tackle in 2018 (4.91). This year, they rank 29th (1.71). They ranked first in ALY on carries around the right end in 2018 (6.33). This year, the rank 30th (-1.17).

• When the Steelers needed to manhandle opposing D-linemen in short-yardage situations last year, they excelled. Pittsburgh was fifth in the NFL in power success rate (71 percent), which measures how often an offense earns a first down or a touchdown with two yards or less to go. In 2019, the Steelers have been stymied. Their 50 percent power success rate ranks 24th among all teams. Granted, James Conner and company need to be better also, but the O-line hasn't imposed its will and kept drives alive.

• While the Steelers aren't hanging Mason Rudolph out to dry on every play, they aren't necessarily giving him the kind of pocket protection that Ben Roethlisberger enjoyed either. Rudolph was sacked twice during his first NFL start, and he absorbed four hits overall. This isn't a case of a novice QB just holding on to the ball too long, either. Rudolph is averaging about 2.7 seconds between the time the ball is snapped and when he throws, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That's right around the NFL average for QBs.

• Pro Football Focus issues a 0-100 grade to lineman based on their pass- and run-blocking prowess. The Steelers' O-line graded as an above-average unit across the board last year, with Villanueva earning the highest rating among a group that had three Pro Bowl players. In 2019, Villanueva is the team's second-lowest-rated starting lineman. Foster, who enjoyed a healthy and resurgent 2018, has also declined significantly:

The O-line is hardly the only reason why the winless Steelers rank 27th in points per game (16.3), 29th in total yards (269.3), and 28th in third-down conversion rate (25.7 percent). But an offense that clearly has nowhere nearly the same skill-position talent as it used to needs much more from its hogs up front.

Is this O-line's 2019 season so far just a blip on the radar -- one that we'll forget when they're back to pancaking people mid-season?

Do they miss Munchak's coaching that much?

Or, most alarmingly, are we actually seeing signs of decline from an aging unit?

Foster is about to turn 34, Villanueva is 31, Pouncey is 30, and DeCastro will turn 30 this season. Only Feiler (27) is squarely in his physical prime.

If the Steelers can't count on Pro Bowl-level production from the line while they're breaking in a new QB and coping with the loss of a generational wideout, this could get very ugly.

MORE STEELERS

No thanks, you take it: Say this about the 49ers: They're generous hosts. San Francisco committed five turnovers during Week 3, yet the Steelers inexplicably managed to leave the West Coast winless. How rare is it for the team to generate so many turnovers while still taking a loss? The last time Pittsburgh lost a game despite generating at least five turnovers was Dec. 7, 1981, when the Raiders beat Chuck Noll's Steelers, 30-27. The Steelers have gotten five or more turnovers 133 times in franchise history, according to Pro Football Reference, and their collective record in those games is 113-19-1. Before Sunday, the last time that any NFL team lost a game while getting five-plus turnovers was 2015, when the Chargers pulled off that feat.

• Rudolph's aim: It's too early to make a fair judgment of whether Mason Rudolph can be the long-term starting QB, but he could stand to improve his accuracy in the weeks to come. NFL Next Gen Stats tracks a QB's expected completion percentage, which is calculated based on passing air distance, air yards, the distance between a receiver and the nearest defender, the distance between the QB and the nearest pass-rusher, and the speed of the QB’s throw, among other factors. Rudolph's expected completion percentage is 59.7 percent -- above his actual 56.5 percent completion rate. That means Rudolph is completing fewer passes than we would expect based on the difficulty of his attempted throws. Rudolph ranks 27th out of 38 NFL QBs in completion percentage above average (-3.2), which is based on the difference between expected and actual completion rate. Rudolph didn't get much help from his teammates Sunday, but he needs to be more precise.

PIRATES

Reynolds and all-time rookies: During a year in which Murphy's Law has been in full effect, Bryan Reynolds' superb rookie season has been a pleasant surprise and an important development for the franchise long-term. But just where does Reynolds rank among the Pirates' best all-time rookies? Reynolds boasts the eighth-highest park and league-adjusted OPS among all Pirates rookies who had at least 400 plate appearances, according to Baseball-Reference. With a 133 OPS+, the switch-hitter picked up in the Andrew McCutchen trade trails only Jimmy Williams (158 OPS+ in 1899), Paul Waner (148 OPS+ in 1926), Kiki Cuyler (148 OPS+ in 1924), Johnny Rizzo (140 OPS+ in 1938), Jim Viox (140 OPS+ in 1913), Lefty Davis (139 OPS+ in 1901) and Ginger Beaumont (136 OPS+ in 1899). Reynolds has racked up 4.2 Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement (WAR, a measure of a player's offensive, defensive and base running value compared to a fringe major leaguer). That's sixth-best in franchise history, behind just Williams (6.9 in 1899), Glenn Wright (5.7 in 1924), Waner (5.3 in 1926), Cuyler (4.7 in 1924) and Dots Miller (4.6 in 1909). In short, it has been a long time since the Pirates had a rookie perform this well from the jump.

Tucker at the bat: Cole Tucker made his MLB debut as early as he did in 2019 out of necessity. He jumped virtually straight from Double-A this past spring, and understandably scuffled at the plate before spending a large part of the summer back at Triple-A Indianapolis. He didn't exactly light it up there, with a park- and league-adjusted batting line that was about five percent below average. And overall, Tucker was punched out about 26 percent of the time as an MLB rookie with an adjusted batting line that's 39 percent below average. Tucker has looked pretty smooth at shortstop in limited time, but there has to be at least some concern about his long-term offensive upside. The ZiPS projection system at Fangraphs -- which forecasts performance based on several years' worth of major and minor league stats, aging curves and historically comparable players -- has Tucker hitting about ten percent worse than an average major leaguer in 2020. While that might sound decent for a defense-first position, shortstops as a whole actually hit slightly better than the overall MLB average these days. Bottom line: Tucker will need to show marked improvement offensively, or channel his inner Jack Wilson, to be a valuable long-term contributor.

• Internal improvement? Short of an unexpected, completely out of character free-agent splurge, the Pirates figure to enter 2020 with largely the same starting rotation as they have right now. That might terrify you, considering that Pittsburgh's starters have the second-worst collective ERA (5.48) among all NL teams and the fifth-worst mark in the majors. Is it reasonable to expect these guys to improve? ZiPS projects Chris Archer for a 3.78 ERA next season (5.19 in 2019), though that forecasting system doesn't know about his shoulder problem. Trevor Williams is forecast for a 3.95 ERA (5.52 in '19), Joe Musgrove at 4.04 (4.49 in '19), Steven Brault at 4.43 (4.86 in '19 as a starter),  and Mitch Keller at 4.52 (7.74 in '19). Depth options like Dario Agrazal (4.42 projection, 5.08 in '19) and the rehabbing Chad Kuhl (4.28) are projected to be near the league average for a starter (4.53 ERA). If the Pirates stick with the same starters, they might expect adequacy. If they aspire for excellence, though, it's probably coming from someone wearing a different uniform right now.

PENGUINS

•  Johnson vs. Juuso: Jack Johnson returns this season with four years and $13 million left on his contract. He figures to be part of the Penguins' third-line defense pairing, but, contract aside, should he? You can make the case that the seventh D-man would be the better option, and one with more long-term upside. Juuso Riikola plateaued during his rookie year, but he was on the ice for fewer goals against per 60 minutes of even-strength play (2.7 for Johnson, 1.9 for Riikola), fewer scoring chances against (27.6 for Johnson, 26.2 for Riikola), and a greater share of overall goals scored (43.4 for Johnson, 53.9 for Riikola). If these guys are evaluated based on pure production, then Johnson's healthy scratch during last year's playoffs may not be his last as a Penguin.

Offensive upside? The Penguins signed Brandon Tanev primarily for his speed and defensive prowess. The other side of his game isn't nearly as touted. But, if you're an optimist -- and clearly Jim Rutherford is, considering he gave the player a six-year, $21-million free agent deal -- you can see some improvement for Tanev offensively. His average shots per game total has increased three years in a row (from 1.1 to 1.3 to 1.6), as has his points per game total (0.1, 0.3, 0.36). That's still very modest production, but that improvement has at least kept Tanev from being a real drag on his team's puck possession game. Back in 2016-17, Winnipeg generated 7 percent fewer shots with Tanev skating during five-on-five play compared to when he was on the bench, according to Hockey Reference. Over the past two years, the Jets took about as many shots with Tanev on the ice as they did when he was off (-0.3 percent fewer in 2017-18, and -0.1 percent fewer in 2018-19). You can still make the case that the Penguins gave too much cash over too many years, but he's not a black hole on offense anymore.

• Third-round steal? 2019 third-round pick Nathan Legare has showcased his rifle of a shot this preseason, netting a pair of goals versus the Columbus Blue Jackets on September 19. While some scouts question his initial skating burst, Legare is a physical forward who tied for second in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League last season in goals (45) and ranked eighth in points (87). If Legare's lethal shot eventually makes him a mainstay in Pittsburgh, he'll just be the latest third-round steal for the Penguins. Over the past 15 years, the Penguins have selected three franchise players in that round -- Kris Letang (picked in 2005), Jake Guentzel (2013) and Matt Murray (2012) -- plus an important complementary player on two championship teams in Bryan Rust (2010). This franchise knows how to make the most of its draft picks.

THE NATIONAL TREND

Losing big: The 2019 Pirates have been wretched, but their struggles on the field pale in comparison to those in Detroit (.297 winning percentage and -314 run differential). The 2019 Tigers have the fourth-worst winning percentage during the Expansion Era (1961-present), ranking ahead of just the 2018 Orioles (.290), 2003 Tigers (.265) and 1962 Mets (.250). They're being outscored by an average of 2.03 runs per game, which is the third-worst per-game run differential of the Expansion Era. The 1962 Mets (outscored by -2.06 runs per game) and 2003 Tigers (-2.08 runs per game) got clobbered slightly worse. If you're gonna lose, lose in historic fashion.

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Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.

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