Stats 'N' At: Faith in Keller, Mason's checkdown, blue-line depth ☕ taken in Downtown (Penguins)

Mitch Keller, Mason Rudolph, John Marino -- MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

From drafting and developing prospects, to acquiring established big-leaguers, to in-game strategy, the Pirates' overall approach to pitching is under fire.

One beacon of hope in this wasteland -- one in which Jameson Taillon is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Chris Archer is vastly underachieving, and Gerrit Cole is punching out a dozen batters per game for the Astros -- is Mitch Keller. Keller has the power stuff (mid-90s heat and two sinister breaking pitches) and minor league track record (including more than 10 Ks per nine innings pitched at Triple-A) to profile as a top-of-the rotation arm. He might be the only guy in the entire system with that kind of talent, short of 2019 first-rounder Quinn Priester. If Keller doesn't succeed, this already-reeling franchise might not get off the mat for years to come.

That's why Keller's rookie season, at least on the surface, was so distressing.

While he finished on a strong note, he compiled a 7.13 ERA in 48 innings spread over 11 starts. His park and league-adjusted ERA was 40 percent worse than the overall MLB average (60 ERA+). Among rookie starting pitchers who tossed at least 40 innings during the Expansion Era (1961-present), Keller has the 18th-worst adjusted ERA ever. Among Pirates rookie meeting that innings threshold, only Tyler Glasnow (56 ERA+) was worse. That's not a comparison anyone wants to make around these parts--at least the Pittsburgh version of Glasnow.

Keller's far from a finished product, but you shouldn't write off the 23-year-old right-hander. You can make the case that Keller in 2019 was one of the unluckiest pitchers of all time.  And if you look beyond the cover-your-eyes bad ERA, he actually showed some signs of dominance.

Let's start with the whiffs. Keller struck out 28.9 percent of the batters that he faced, which ranked 28th in the majors out of 180 starters with 40+ innings in 2019. His walk rate (7.1 percent) ranked in the top third among starters, and comfortably better than the 7.7 percent average for starters this year. Keller wasn't especially homer-prone in this launching pad era of baseball, either, with a home run per fly ball rate of 13 percent (15.4 percent MLB average). In terms of the outcomes that a pitcher most directly controls--punch outs, walks and homers--Keller was pretty good.

And the pure stuff? It was superb. Keller threw his fastball about 59 percent of the time, at an average of 95.4 mph. That velocity ranked in the top 25 among all starters. His spin rate on the pitch (an average of 2,473 rpm) placed in the 91st percentile among all pitchers (meaning better than 91 percent of the league), according to MLB Statcast. The more spin that a pitcher imparts on his fastball, the better he tends to perform with the pitch.

Keller's secondary stuff was highly promising, too. His upper-80s slider (thrown 21 percent) generated a whiff 47.3 percent of the time, which placed tenth among all MLB starters who threw the pitch 100-plus times. His slider spin rate (2,661 rpm) was in about the 80th percentile among pitchers. Opponents slugged just .289 versus Keller's slider, compared to the .396 MLB average for starters. For a pitch that Keller didn't really feature before 2019, his slider was great.

Keller's low-80s curveball, thrown 16 percent, induced whiffs 34 percent of the time (in the top third among starters who threw 100-plus curves). His curveball spin rate was better than 85 percent of the league, and opponents slugged only .133 off the pitch. That ranked third among starters who threw the pitch 100+ times and was just a fraction of the .386 big league average.

With strong strikeout and walk rates, not to mention excellent pure stuff, Keller had a fielding independent (FIP) ERA of 3.20. FIP is a more accurate projection of a pitcher's performance that's based on Ks, free passes and home runs allowed. While Keller had the sixth-worst ERA among all starters who threw at least 40 frames this season, he had the 14th-best FIP.

No starter had a wider gap between his ERA and his FIP (3.92 runs). That's because Keller had an astronomical .475 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For comparison's sake, the average BABIP for a starter this season was .297. Pitchers have limited control over BABIP, so guys with especially high or low BABIPs tend to see that number regress toward the league average over the long run. There's no reason to think that Keller will keep on giving up hits on balls in play like he's facing Ty Cobb every at-bat. In fact, no starting pitcher in the Expansion Era with 40+ innings has ever suffered from worse batted ball luck than Keller:

You might be skeptical. Surely, Keller must has given up hard contact for his ERA to rise above seven. But that's not really the case. Batters put the ball in play at an average of 87.2 mph versus Keller, which is actually slightly below the MLB average (87.5 mph). His hard-hit rate (balls put in play at 95 mph or higher) was 35.3 percent, which was close to the league average of 34.5 percent. It's not like opponents were hitting screaming line drives off of Keller's stuff.

Keller was insanely unlucky in 2019, and should perform much better in 2020. But he still has work to do. In particular, his fastball command needs to improve. He threw his fastball belt-high in the strike zone about 28 percent of the time. The MLB average for starters is about 21 percent. Why does that matter? On average, MLB starters cough up a .651 slugging percentage when they throw a belt-high four-seam fastball, per MLB Statcast. The overall slugging percentage versus four-seamers is more than 150 points lower (.494). So, belt-high heat gets massacred. And that was especially the case for Keller, who gave up an .815 slugging percentage on belt-high four-seam fastballs. Keller throwing so many heart-of-the-plate fastballs also helps explain why he had a 17.6 percent whiff rate with the pitch. That ranked just 118th out of 187 starters who threw at least 200 four-seamers.

So, Keller needs to be more precise with his fastball. But even with spotty fastball command, he fooled plenty of hitters and showed quality control. He had, by far, the best FIP among any Pirates starter and a top-15 mark in the majors overall. It's easy to get cynical about anything pitching-related with the Pirates these days, but Keller still has ace potential. He could have a Glasnow-esque turnaround after a brutal rookie year--a turnaround that would happen in Pittsburgh, and one the franchise desperately needs.

MORE PIRATES

Welcome to the show: For Pirates rookie pitchers, their cup of coffee was more like week-old, rancid Starbucks. In more than 300 combined innings pitched this season, Pittsburgh's rookie hurlers had a 7.10 ERA. That's not only the second-worst mark in the majors (the Mets had a 7.19 ERA from rookies, albeit in far fewer innings), it's one of the worst rookie showings that we have ever seen from the franchise and in MLB history. Only the 2007 team (7.33 ERA) had a higher collective ERA from its rookie arms. The 2019 Pirates rookie pitchers will go down as one of the 20-worst (measured by ERA) all-time among teams that got at least 100 innings from its first year arms in a season.

• Iron gloves: Pick a problem, any problem, and the Pirates probably have it. But even for a franchise facing no shortage of crises, team defense remains an especially sore spot. Collectively, the 2019 Pirates were -58 runs worse than an average defensive team, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric. DRS measures defensive value compared to an average-fielding player at a position, factoring in items like range, throwing arm, defensive positioning, errors and turning double plays (for infielders). The Bucs were the sixth-worst defensive club in the majors, ranking ahead of only the Orioles (-108 DRS), Mets (-92), Mariners (-90), Tigers (-85) and White Sox (-65). Breaking it down by position, the Pirates had -10 DRS at catcher, -3 at first base, +11 at second base, -6 at shortstop, -16 at third base, -21 in right field, -13 in center field and -6 in left field. Amazingly, Pirates pitchers tried to pick up the slack. Pittsburgh's pitchers saved 12 runs above average, tops among any unit on the diamond.

STEELERS

High-percentage passing: Granted, Mason Rudolph was Captain Checkdown against the Bengals. A significant portion of his throws were short pitches that functioned more like running plays. But even so, there's only one Steelers QB during the Expansion Era (1970-present) who has ever had a more precise game passing the ball--and it's the guy he replaced. Rudolph completed 24 of 28 pass attempts versus Cincinnati (85.7 percent), which is the third-best rate in a single game for a Steelers QB who threw the ball at least 25 games. Only Ben Roethlisberger (88 percent completion rate on November 18, 2018 versus Carolina and 86.2 percent against Oakland on December 9, 2018) has enjoyed a day with fewer footballs on the turf. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Rudolph's passes traveled an average of just 3.2 yards pas the line of scrimmage. His Monday night performance wasn't flashy, but it was efficient.

Getting separation: During the first three weeks of the 2019 season, Steelers receivers were practically attached at the hip to opposing defensive backs. They struggled to create distance from defenders, which has forced Rudolph and the Steelers to throw into tight windows or just opt for short dump-offs to running backs. The receiving group didn't create many splash plays versus the Bengals, but they did manage to find a little more wiggle room. Rookie Diontae Johnson had an average of 4.8 yards of separation from the nearest defender on his six catches, which tied for the second-highest rate of all NFL receivers during Week 4. For comparison's sake, the average receiver creates about 2.8 yards of separation. JuJu Smith-Schuster wasn't as involved as he should have been, but he did create four yards of separation on his catches. If Pittsburgh's wide outs can continue creating more space from defenders, maybe Rudolph and offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner will take more shots down the field.

(Steel) Curtain call-worthy: Cincinnati's offense can basically be summed up as decent skill position players who are running for their lives thanks to a patchwork offensive line. Even so, the Steelers' defense was awfully impressive in Week 4. Pittsburgh surrendered just 175 total yards to the Bengals, which is the third-lowest single-game total that the franchise has allowed since the new millennium. Dating back to 2000, the only times that the Steelers gave up fewer totals yards in a game were on December 23, 2010 versus Carolina (119) and on September 18, 2011 versus Seattle (164). The only team to give up fewer total yards in a game this season is the Patriots, who limited the Jets to 105 yards on September 22.

PENGUINS

Marino impressing: To inject more youth and talent on the blue line, the Penguins sent a sixth-round pick to the Oilers for John Marino. And so far, the former Harvard defenseman has made a great impression. During five-on-five play in the preseason, Marino was on the ice for 80 percent of total goals scored, 55.6 percent of scoring changes and 78.6 percent of high-danger scoring changes (those with the best odds of beating the goaltender based on shot distance and type, and odd-man rush situations), according to Natural Stat Trick. Marino will be just a phone call away with the Baby Penguins. With Marino, Calen Addison and Pierre-Olivier Joseph now in the organization, the Penguins' no longer have a barren prospect depth chart on D.

• Responsible Penguins? Given the giant and fluid rosters, the varying level of competition and the sample size, it's difficult to make sweeping pronouncements about a team's preseason performance. But Mike Sullivan, who called out his team for giving up too many odd-man rushes last year, has to be pleased with what he has seen so far. The Penguins surrendered the second-fewest high danger scoring changes during even-strength play (27) this preseason. Only the Avalanche left their goalie hanging out to dry less often this preseason. In 2018-19, Pittsburgh ranked 16th in the NHL in high-danger chances allowed.

• Rusty on D: Bryan Rust has a well-earned reputation as a speedy defensive pest, but he's not coming off his best season in that regard. During five-on-five play, the Penguins allowed significantly more shots with Rust skating in 2018-19 (a career-worst 32.1 per 60 minutes) compared to 2017-18 (a career-best 25.9). They also gave up more scoring chances (27.8 in '18-19, 25 in '17-18) and high-danger chances (12 in '18-'19, 11.1 in '17-18). With his defensive game not perhaps not in top form, Rust went from a player who drove puck possession to more of an also-ran. Last year, the Penguins generated -0.2 percent fewer of the game's total shots with Rust skating compared to when he was off the ice. In 2017-18, Pittsburgh generated +5 percent more shots when Rust was flying around.

THE NATIONAL TREND

Blue line bucks: We have come a long way from the days of third-line defensive pairings primarily being pugilists on skates. These days, far more defensemen are counted on to be swift skaters, drive puck possession and score. And teams are shelling out more money to these new-era blue liners. NHL teams will allocate an average of about 29.9 percent of their payroll to defensemen this season, according to Spotrac. That's up from 27.9 percent last season, and 27.5 percent in 2017-18. The Penguins, meanwhile, are projected to spend about 32.3 percent of their overall team salary on defensemen (10th-highest in the NHL). Even with the salary cap not increasing as much as some expected, Kris Letang's $7.25 million cap hit looks like a bargain in this economic climate for defensemen.

LET'S HEAR FROM YOU!

Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.

Have a question? Post it in comments below!

Loading...
Loading...