Lolley's Kickoff: Analysis, stats, data, picks ☕ taken at Heinz Field (Steelers)

Ben Roethlisberger and Joe Flacco after a game last season. - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS

Troy Polamalu. Hines Ward. James Harrison. Ray Lewis. Ed Reed. Terrell Suggs.

The great players that once made the Steelers-Ravens rivalry the best in the NFL are now all gone. The Ravens assured that in the offseason by ridding themselves of Joe Flacco and Suggs, while the Steelers are now without Ben Roethlisberger.

Largely, only Mike Tomlin and his Baltimore counterpart, John Harbaugh, remain from a series that saw these two teams battle not just for AFC North supremacy, but NFL supremacy from 2008 through 2011, when the series was at its most heated and the two teams combined for three Super Bowl trips and two wins.

Just don't tell Harbaugh the rivalry is dead, as the Steelers (1-3) prepare to host the Ravens (2-2) Sunday at Heinz Field for the first of their two meetings this season.

"That stadium is still amazing and they still stand what the Steelers stand for," Harbaugh said. "The Steelers are the Steelers and the Ravens are the Ravens. It’s just two good organizations. I believe in this rivalry. It’s one of the greatest rivalries in sports. The faces are going to change, but the histories are not going to change. Those guys are going to be a part of it always. Hines Ward and Ed Reed. Now, it’s just adding to it. It doesn’t take anything away from it."

The names aren't the same, for sure, but when the guys in black and gold come out of the tunnel to play the team in purple and black, it's going to be a physical football game.

"Oh yeah," Maurkice Pouncey told me. "Nothing has changed. This is AFC North football. This game still carries all the meaning it always has."

It most certainly does this week, despite the Steelers' 0-3 start. A victory by the Steelers over the Ravens would put both teams at 2-3. And if the Browns lose Monday night in San Francisco, there would be a three-way tie for the division lead. And the Steelers, based on their 2-0 record in the division, would technically be the top team.

Worst to first, just like that.

Of course, it's still way too early to start thinking about things like that, but the division games do take on an increased importance in what's looking like a three-team race.

"We understand the ramifications and the significance of division play, particularly when you’re in the circumstances that we’re in, in terms of not getting off to a good start," Tomlin said. "It makes it doubly important."

How close has the series been? Tomlin is 12-12 against the Ravens in his career. Harbaugh is 11-11 against the Steelers. And the two teams are 19-19 against each other since 2000, even though the Steelers have won four of the past five meetings.

But those faces have changed significantly. In fact, this will be the first time Roethlisberger or Flacco won't start a Ravens-Steelers game since the final game of the 2007 regular season. The Troy Smith-led Ravens beat the Charlie Batch-quarterbacked Steelers, 27-21.

That's a long time ago. Mason Rudolph was 13 years old then, while Lamar Jackson was 10.

“It’s going to be pretty crazy,” Jackson said. “No Ben, a whole new team, a new era. We just have to get ready for it.”

At least for this year. Roethlisberger is expected to return to the Steelers in 2020. But for now, it's a whole different feel.

Especially considering the offenses. The Steelers broke out the Wildcat last week, running it seven times in a win over the Bengals. And they've employed a short passing game to help Rudolph settle in. The Ravens, meanwhile, have the league's top rushing offense.

The Steelers and Ravens games often come down to field position in defensive struggles, but this time around, it could be all about controlling the clock.

"This thing might be over in about 20 minutes," Harbaugh joked. "That’s part of it. You try to factor that in."

THE ESSENTIALS

• WhoSteelers (1-3) vs. Ravens (2-2)

• When: 1:02 p.m.

• WhereHeinz Field

• TV: KDKA (local), CBS (national)

• Radio102.5 WDVEESPN Pittsburgh

• Satellite: SiriusXM 233, Internet 826

• Forecast: 70 degrees, 40 percent chance of showers

• Lots open: 9 a.m.

• Will call open: 11 a.m.

• Gates open: 11 a.m.

• BoxscoreNFL Game Center

• Odds: MyBookie.AG

THE INJURY REPORT

Steelers: FB Roosevelt Nix (knee, out), OLB Anthony Chickillo (foot, out), TE Vance McDonald (shoulder, questionable), WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (toe, questionable), LB Vince Williams (hamstring, questionable)

Ravens:  CB Jimmy Smith (knee, out), C Matt Skura (knee, questionable), CB Cyrus Jones (foot, questionable), DT Brandon Williams (knee, questionable)

THE KEY VARIABLE

There used to be a lot of things you could count on from year to year in the NFL, kind of like death and taxes.

One of those things was the Ravens fielding a very good defense every year.

But the 2019 offseason was not kind to the Ravens. Safety Eric Weddle was released, while edge rushers Suggs and Z'Darius Smith, defensive end Brent Urban and linebacker C.J. Mosley left in free agency.

Then, slot corner Tayvon Young was lost for the season to injury and fellow corner Jimmy Smith went down in the opener with a knee injury.

That's seven starters the Ravens defense, which led the league in 2018, is now without heading into this game with the Steelers. And that's assuming defensive tackle Brandon Williams, who missed last week's 40-25 loss to the Browns with a knee injury, plays this week. Williams is questionable to play against the Steelers.

Sure, the Ravens added veteran Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas to help replace Weddle, but this defense is missing a lot in 2019. And it shows.

While the Ravens shut down the hapless Dolphins in Week 1, holding them to 200 total yards, they have allowed an average of 461 yards per game in the three games since -- including back-to-back games of more than 500 yards in the past two weeks.

Miami has the league's worst defense this season, allowing 472 yards per game. The Ravens haven't been much better, at least when they're not playing the Dolphins.

"It's still a good defense," Pouncey told me. "They've still got a lot of good guys on that side of the ball."

That might be true, but they're not necessarily playing well together. The Ravens have allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, tied for the worst in the league. They're also tied for the league lead with two runs of 40 or more yards allowed.

That's eight plays of 40 or more yards allowed already this season.

"We have a lot of things to work on, obviously," Ravens defensive coordinator Don "Wink" Martindale said. "We're attacking that."

The question will be how the Steelers attack the Ravens. The offense has certainly been less dynamic with Rudolph at quarterback instead of Roethlisberger. But Baltimore allows 7.4 yards per play -- regardless of whether it's a run or pass -- so there should be some big plays available.

"Well, that's the plan every week," Rudolph said of taking some shots downfield.

But he's got to take those shots when available. Offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner criticized his second-year quarterback a week ago for not letting the ball fly in some situations in his first start against the 49ers. He did go downfield more against the Bengals, when the game script called for it.

"We’ve made some big plays. We’d like to make more," Fichtner said this week. "We’re hunting more all of the time, but it all comes down to really being together, a group effort. It starts with protection by running backs and the offensive line. It starts with receivers getting open. Tight ends getting open. Running backs getting open. So, there’s a lot that goes into throwing the ball, but there’s a lot of good opportunities there, too."

THE HISTORY LESSON

Without Roethlisberger in this game, Ravens' guard Marshall Yanda and punter Sam Koch are the only remaining players from the Steelers or Ravens from the first time the two teams played with Tomlin and Harbaugh on the sideline opposing each other.

And what a meeting that first one was.

It came Sept. 29, 2008 and fittingly went to overtime at Heinz Field.

The Steelers forced a three-and-out on the Ravens' first possession and drove to the Baltimore 20 before Roethlisberger was sacked on third down to force a Jeff Reed field goal.

The Steelers forced another three-and-out on Baltimore's second possession, but after a punt, Roethlisberger's first pass was intercepted by defensive tackle Haloti Ngata at midfield to set up a Matt Stover field goal to tie the game at 3-3.

Stover kicked another field goal in the second quarter, then the Ravens took at 13-3 lead just before the half on a Flacco touchdown pass to Daniel Wilcox.

But the Steelers regained the lead at the end of the third quarter in quick fashion. First, Roethlisberger threw a 38-yard touchdown pass to Santonio Holmes. On the first play of Baltimore's ensuing possession, Harrison sacked Flacco, stripping him of the ball. LaMarr Woodley scooped up the loose ball and returned it seven yards for a touchdown and a 17-13 lead.

Early in the fourth quarter, the Steelers threatened to put the game away, but Mewelde Moore was stopped by Lewis on a third-down run from the 1 and Reed booted a 19-yard field goal for a 20-13 Steelers lead.

Flacco then led the Ravens back, hitting Derrick Mason with a 35-yard pass to set up a 2-yard Le'Ron McClain touchdown run to tie the score at 20-20 with just under three minutes remaining in regulation.

Neither team scored on a final possession and the game went to sudden death overtime.

The Ravens won the toss and took the ball, but McClain was called for a chop block on second down and Baltimore went three-and-out.

The Steelers took advantage following a Koch punt, taking over at their own 43. Roethlisberger completed a pair of passes to Moore for 24 and 7 yards to put the Steelers in field goal range.

Reed booted a 46-yard game winner to give the Steelers a 23-20 victory.

Flacco, making his first start against the Steelers, threw for 192 yards and a touchdown, but was sacked five times and lost that key fumble. Mason had six catches for 137 yards, while McClain gained 63 yards on the ground.

The game is better remembered as the one where Lewis celebrated fracturing the shoulder of Steelers' rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall in the second quarter after gaining 30 yards on nine carries. The Steelers also lost guard Kendall Simmons to a torn Achilles tendon in the game.

Roethlisberger threw for 191 yards, one touchdown with one interception, as the Steelers won this game with their defense. The Ravens had 243 total yards, while the Steelers had 237 in the game.

THE MAIN MATCHUP

Say what you will about the gimmicky nature of the Steelers breaking out the Wildcat offense in Monday night's win over the Bengals, but one thing is certain: It added some additional prep time for the Ravens this week.

Baltimore had to be just as surprised as the Bengals seemed to be by the use of direct snaps to running back Jaylen Samuels.

The Steelers only ran the formation seven times, but they gained 46 yards on it -- all essentially runs, though three handoffs were counted as passes because Samuels pitched the ball forward to James Conner.

"We have to prepare for it, and we have to prepare for the next iteration of it, the other things that may come up in the realm of the basic structure based on what they do and who their players are," Harbaugh said. "In the end, you have to concentrate on what you do, how you play. That’s what we have to do a better job of."

For Harbaugh, what his team is doing has to be a big point of focus. And offensively, it's been pretty darn good. In fact, the Ravens do a lot of the same things the Steelers did against the Bengals last week. They'll run read-options and misdirection passes, and play-action off a strong running game, taking advantage of Jackson's elusiveness in the open field and his big arm.

Baltimore's offense leads the league in total yards, averaging 482.5 per game. They're tied with the Chiefs, averaging nearly 34 points per game.

"They don’t do anything special. They just go out and play football," Minkah Fitzpatrick told me. "They’re not a big team on throwing a whole lot at you. What they run, they run well. They’re going to execute it well."

Can the Steelers' defense be up to the task?

The key will be stopping Jackson, who entered the week ninth in the AFC in rushing and tied for the league lead with 10 touchdown passes. Five of those touchdown passes came in a rout of the Dolphins in Week 1, but Jackson presents interesting issues for a defense with his speed.

"It’s going to be a big challenge in terms of shutting down the running game and trying to limit the quarterback as much as we can," Keith Butler said. "He’s done a good job for them the first four ball games. They’ve played well, so we’re going to have to play well defensively to keep us in the game."

The Steelers have had some very productive stretches defensively since getting thumped in their opener at New England. They had four sacks and allowed just one touchdown to the Seahawks in the first half of a 28-26 Week 2, loss, then forced four turnovers and gave up three points in the first half of a Week 3 loss at San Francisco.

Last week against the Bengals, they put it all together, allowing just three points -- off an offensive turnover -- and 175 total yards in a 27-3 victory. The Steelers had eight sacks in the game.

They might not hold the Ravens to 175 yards, but if they can keep Jackson from making big plays, Baltimore could struggle. And the Steelers have had one of the league's best red-zone defenses thus far this season, allowing a touchdown just 35.7 percent of the time, tying them with the Cowboys for the third-best in the NFL.

Compounding matters for the Steelers is the fact the Ravens' Justin Tucker is one of the best deep kickers in NFL history. He and the Steelers' Chris Boswell are two of just four kickers in the league who have not missed a field goal or PAT this season.

"We’ve got to be careful about them putting together any type of drive because they’re going to score points," Butler said. "Their kicker can hit a 50-yarder or 60 yards. If they pass the 50-yard line, it’s a field goal. So, we’ve got to defend the ball."

THE QUOTES

• "Devin Bush, I know him really well from Michigan. My brother loved him. He was one of his favorite players of all-time. Great speed, aggressiveness, nose for the ball, sideline-to-sideline. They’ve added all that speed. It’s been good for the Steelers." -- Harbaugh

• "It just showed us that the season isn’t over. Now, everybody is talking that if we win this game, we could be in first place. Before, they were writing us off. Now, it’s the Steelers could be in first place. We’ve got to keep fighting with the good news, the bad news. We’ve got to keep on getting better because it’s still early in the season and we haven’t played our best ball yet, but we’re getting there." -- Terrell Edmunds on last week's win

• "I'm competitive, no matter who it is. I know Lamar, and we spent a lot of time (together) through that draft process. We're both very competitive individuals. It'll be no different this week than any other week. We both want to win and he's a great player, and I'm excited to play." -- Rudolph on facing Jackson, who was the last quarterback selected ahead of him in the 2018 draft.

THE TEN DATA POINTS

T.J. Watt has 9.5 sacks in his past eight home games.

• The Steelers rank fourth in the NFL in sacks (14) and third in quarterback hits (31).

• The Ravens have allowed three slot receivers in the past three weeks (Arizona's Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald and Cleveland's Jarvis Landry) to go over 100 yards. JuJu Smith-Schuster has run nearly 70 percent of his routes out of the slot this season.

• Jackson enters the game with 933 career rushing yards -- in 20 career games.

• Jackson is the first player in NFL history to tally at least 1,100 passing yards and at least 200 rushing yards through his first four games of a season.

• The Steelers are 36-28 coming off Monday night games, including 9-6 under Tomlin.

•Rudolph is the fourth player in NFL history to throw multiple touchdown passes in each of his first three career games, joining Mark Rypien (first four), Jay Cutler (first four) and Marcus Mariota (first three).

• The Steelers have allowed 139 sacks since 2014, second-fewest in the league over that period and two behind the Saints. The Ravens are third with 145.

• The Steelers have converted 12 of 44 third downs (27.3 percent). The Ravens are at 47.9 percent on third downs.

• No team has gone for it on fourth down as much as the Ravens, who have attempted nine conversions, making six.

FANTASY CORNER

Last week's lineup was great, as Conner, Sterling Shepard, Kenny Golladay, Will Dissly and Cooper Kupp were all strong starts, leading to 151.70 points. Here's this week's lineup using DraftKings.com's salary totals. Today's lineup will feature the 15 Sunday and Monday games with a $50,000 salary limit.

Quarterback: Deshaun Watson ($6,700): Watson and the Texans' offense had had a couple of down weeks. But everyone is throwing the ball on the Falcons. He should be great this week.

Running backs: Ezekiel Elliott ($8,300), David Johnson ($7,500): Elliott is coming off a sub-par game and now gets a Green Bay run defense that got tortured by the Eagles last week. The Cardinals have several receivers hurt and we just saw what the Steelers running backs did to the Bengals' linebackers. Johnson is even better as a receiver. He could catch 10 passes.

Wide receivers: Will Fuller ($4,500), Julio Jones ($7,700), Jake Kumerow ($3,800): Fuller is a nice cheap stack with Watson in what should be a shootout. Jones gets work on the other side of that shootout. Kumerow gets playing time for the Packers this week because Davante Adams is out. He's not Adams, but at $3,800 and Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball, why not?

Tight end: Tyler Eifert ($3,300): Look, Eifert isn't the player he once was, but he's playing Arizona, which easily has the league's worst TE defense. And Eifert got five targets last week against the Steelers. He's a good bet to score this week.

Flex: Joe Mixon ($6,100): Mixon ran the ball hard against the Steelers, though there's not much else around him. But working against Arizona's defense in what could be a sneaky shootout, he should be good.

Defense: Steelers ($2,100): The Steelers have the third-cheapest defense on the slate this week. They'll get sacks. They'll get some turnovers. This is a great bargain for an improving defense.

Dale Lolley (3-1): The Steelers have allowed just five of 14 opposing red-zone trips to be converted into touchdowns. And they haven't allowed a passing play of more than 30 yards since their season-opening loss to the Patriots when they allowed three. Why bring those stats up? The Ravens' offense is all about big plays and, if the Steelers don't give them up, they can win with their defense. Tucker is a weapon but, if you're giving up field goals while scoring touchdowns, that's fine. And the Steelers' offense should move the ball against the depleted Baltimore defense. Steelers, 24-23

Christopher Carter (1-3): The Steelers’ offense found unique ways to score last week against a bad Bengals defense. This week they face a struggling Ravens defense that’s given up big points to offenses led by Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. Rudolph should feel at home after his first career win. But the key on offense will be targeting the Ravens’ struggling edge players and linebackers. If McDonald and Vannett seal the edges, look for Samuels and Conner to have some big runs. Steelers, 24-20

Matt Sunday (2-2): This one has the makings of an old-fashioned AFC North slugfest, the kind they used to hype up on the pregame network shows. Not because, as Dale pointed out, Polamalu could win it with an interception return, but because it's between two teams who are desperate to keep the game on the ground, especially if Smith-Schuster's out or limited. Whoever is able to run is going to take it. For that reason, I'm taking the team that's spent half a year designing a college offense vs. the Steelers' two weeks of wildcat. Ravens, 23-17

Dejan Kovacevic (1-3): The Ravens played two winless teams and beat both. The Ravens then played two better teams and had their defense clocked for a combined 73 points and 1,033 yards. Everyone will fuss over Jackson, and that's fine. But if the Steelers top 20 points, they win. And against a defense that's been blown up four times for pass plays of 50-plus yards, that should be the low end. It'll be a three-point game, though. Always is with these guys. Steelers, 27-24

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