Darkness envelops the Steelers these days. They're possibly starting an undrafted FCS quarterback next week, after the franchise QB suffered a season-ending injury and his promising understudy took a disturbing blow to the head. The running game is nonexistent, the O-line looks older and the receivers struggle to get separation. At 1-4, their playoffs odds (pegged at 24 percent by Football Outsiders) are about as good as Lloyd Christmas' chances of scoring in Dumb and Dumber. There's not a great chance, is what I'm saying. The only thing that provides a glimmer of hope is the sheer mediocrity of the AFC North competition.
So, this isn't exactly the offense of the Killer B's.
But just how bad have things gotten for a team that practically scored at will during the halcyon days of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell?
As bad as we have seen during the Mike Tomlin era.
Let's start with the passing game. The Steelers are averaging 213.6 yards per game through the air, which ranks 25th in the NFL and is down nearly 100 yards per contest from 2018 (313 per game, second in the league). They're averaging 6.1 net yards per passing attempt (tied for 20th), compared to seven yards per attempt last season (eighth). Since Tomlin took over as coach in 2007, the Steelers have never ranked worse than 22nd in passing yards per game (191.1, during his inaugural season in '07).
The rushing stats are similarly bleak. With 67 yards per game, the Steelers rank 29th in the league. Last year, they averaged 90.3 rushing yards per contest (31st). Pittsburgh is tied for 28th in yards per carry (3.5), down from 4.2 in 2018 (tied for 25th). During the Tomlin era, the Steelers' previous all-time low in rushing yards per game was 86.4, back in 2013. In terms of yards per game, they've turned in the two worst marks of Tomlin's tenure in '18 and '19. Only this year, the deep passing game isn't there to make up for the offensive imbalance.
With a mere 19.8 points per game, the Steelers rank 22nd in the NFL. That's down from 26.8 points per game in '18, which was tied for sixth in the league. While Pittsburgh has boasted a top-ten offense for half of a decade, that streak is almost assuredly going to end this year. In Tomlin's 13 years at the helm, we have never seen a more inept offense. The red zone ketchup bottles at Heinz Field haven't had much reason to flow in 2019:
The Steelers rank ahead of only the Tennessee Titans (19.6), New York Giants (19.4), Cleveland Browns (18.4), Buffalo Bills (18), Denver Broncos (18), Chicago Bears (17.4), Cincinnati Bengals (16), Washington Redskins (14.6), New York Jets (9.8) and Miami Dolphins (6.5) in points per game in 2019. The only times in franchise history that the Steelers have ranked worse in points per game were in 1998 (28th in the league) and 1989 (24th).
Given the loss of generational talents on offense, whether through injury or free agency or...whatever you call the Brown saga, it's hardly surprising that the Steelers are scraping together points. About the best you can hope for at this point is that the next crop of skill position players--Mason Rudolph (if healthy), James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and James Washington among them--can show enough promise to suggest a turnaround is possible in 2020. That, or total implosions in Cleveland and Baltimore.
MORE STEELERS
• Bad JuJu: Just how costly was wide out JuJu Smith-Schuster's overtime fumble? The win probability calculator on ESPN's gamecast of the Steelers/Ravens matchup offers a (depressing) clue. The calculator estimates a team's odds of emerging victorious on a play-by-play basis, while account for the game score, time remaining, and down and distance. When the Steelers' defense stifled the Ravens to begin overtime, their odds of winning the game were about 65 percent. After Baltimore DB Marlon Humphrey punched the football out of JuJu's hands and made the fumble recovery, Pittsburgh's win probability cratered to just 17 percent. Adding to the sheer improbability of it all, Smith-Schuster had fumbled just once before in his NFL career (December 23, 2018 against New Orleans).
• Progress on D: The 2019 season is rapidly descending into a battle to avoid last place in the AFC North, but at least the Boz has made a comeback. After three superb seasons from 2015-17, Chris Boswell turned in a macabre 2018. He made just 65 percent of field goal attempts, which was the worst rate among kickers who tried at least 20 last season and was the worst among Steelers kickers since Todd Peterson (57.1 percent) in 2002. He also made a league-low 89.6 percent of extra-point attempts. In 2019, though? Boswell is a perfect ten for ten on field goal attempts and nine for nine on extra-point attempts. He's not just making chip shots, either. Boswell has gone four-for-four in 2019 on field goals of 40+ yards. In 2018, he faltered from long distance (6-for-11 on 40+ yard attempts).
PENGUINS
• Canadian crusher: By day, Sidney Crosby is a mild-mannered center man. But by night, he's...OK, still a mild-mannered center man. At least, he is most of the time. When the captain does decide to get nasty--like he did by taking down the Blue Jackets' Pierre-Luc Dubois on October 5--opponents best watch out. Crosby has only dropped the gloves eight times during his NHL career, according to hockeyfights.com, but he boasts a 6-1-1 record during those bouts according to crowd sourced voting on that website. Crosby has toppled Dubois, Claude Giroux, Matt Niskanen, Marek Zidlicky, Brett McLean and Andrew Ference. He managed a draw against Brandon Dubinsky, and suffered his only outright loss to Keith Ballard. Sid's fight with Dubois was his first since February of 2015. Crosby surely doesn't get paid to fight, and it's always stomach-churning to see the franchise throw hands. Just don't mistake Crosby for a mark.
• Simon and Sid: The Penguins are shuffling through wingers to pair with Crosby and Jake Guentzel, and the wheel has stopped at times on sabermetric darling and fan lightning rod Dominik Simon. You can certainly question Simon's finishing ability--his career 7.3 shooting percentage ranks 247th among wingers who have skated at least 1,000 minutes since the start of the 2015-16 season, per Hockey-Reference. Yet, it's also true that Crosby's already-excellent game seems to reach a higher level with Simon. When Crosby has skated with Simon since the beginning of 2018-19, the Penguins have generated 60.4 percent of total shots in the game during five-on-five situations. When Crosby skates without Simon, the Penguins have generated 52.9 percent of total shots. Pittsburgh has scored 4.75 goals per 60 minutes of even-strength time with Crosby and Simon together, compared to 3.7 goals when Sid is on the ice without Simon since 2018-19. There's a reason the captain is fond of Simon's puck possession game.
• Tipping point: If the Pirates are searching for lineup upgrades this winter, they might want to check out the guys crashing the net for the Penguins. Pittsburgh features some of the game's best players in terms of connecting on and deflecting pucks into the net. The Penguins have three players who rank in the NHL's top 12 in goals scored on tips since the beginning of the 2016-17 season, according to NHL.com: Guentzel (17 tipped goals, fifth in the league), Patric Hornqvist (15, tied for eighth) and Crosby (14, tied for tenth). Since '16-17, the Penguins as a whole have cashed in 85 goals on tipped shots, which is tied with Tampa Bay and Philadelphia for fourth in the NHL.
PIRATES
• Reynolds' future: As we've chronicled in past Stats columns, Bryan Reynolds enjoyed a historically great rookie year for the Pirates. But is he a long-term star, or more of a good complementary player? Most projection systems view the 24-year-old switch-hitter as more of the latter. One of the better tools out there is the Depth Charts projections on Fangraphs, which blend together two leading forecasting systems (ZiPS and Steamer) while taking into account factors like multi-year production in the majors and minors, aging curves, and historically comparable players. Reynolds is projected to hit about eight percent better than the average major leaguer moving forward once you adjusted for park and league factors. In 2019, he was 31 percent above average at the plate. His full-season Wins Above Replacement (WAR) projection is 2.1. WAR measures a player's offensive, defensive and base running value compared to a quad-A-type talent. Two wins is roughly equal to an average starting position player. In 2019, Reynolds was worth 3.2 WAR. He seems like an average to slightly above-average corner outfielder defensively, and an average base runner overall. So your long-term view mostly comes down to this: Is Reynolds a truly excellent batter capable of posting .300+ averages yearly, or is he merely a good one who had more than his share of seeing-eye singles in 2019?
• WAR zones: When you win just 69 games like the Pirates did in 2019, you've got Swiss cheese-level holes on your roster. But where were they weakest on the diamond? According to Fangraphs, the Pirates ranked 26th in WAR from catchers (-0.4), 13th at first base (+2.5), 14th at second base (+2.1), 29th at shortstop (+1.4), 30th at third base (-1.4), 30th in right field (-2.1), 11th in center field (+3.0) and 14th in left field (+2.3). So, they were nearly the worst or the very worst in baseball at four positions, and average at four positions. And short of Gregory Polanco getting healthy and hitting for power, and perhaps Ke'Bryan Hayes at least flashing plus defense at third base, it's hard to see major improvements coming internally in 2020.
• Brault, both ways: The Pirates are considering expanding Steven Brault's role in 2020--and I'm not talking about on the mound. The former two-way standout at Regis University could pick up more pinch-hitting opportunities and maybe even some outfield time next year. The logistics could get tricky if Brault remains in the team's starting rotation, but he absolutely raked in limited ABs this past year. Brault had a .333 batting average/.349 on-base percentage/.429 slugging percentage, with a park and league-adjusted OPS that was five percent better than the overall MLB average (105 OPS+). The lefty boasted the second-best OPS+ among all pitchers who had at least 50 plate appearances in 2019, trailing only Arizona/Houston's Zack Greinke (122 OPS+). Those two were in a league all their own, really. The third-best hitting pitcher, Jacob deGrom, had an OPS+ of just 52. During the Expansion Era (1961-present), the only Pirates pitchers with a higher OPS+ in a season with 50+ plate appearances were Ken Brett (123 OPS+ in 1974), Don Robinson (116 OPS+ in 1980), Vern Law (116 OPS+ in 1965), Rick Rhoden (111 OPS+ in 1984) and Jim Rooker (110 OPS+ in 1974).
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Flags galore: With pass interference calls--and non-calls--now subject to replay review, flags are flying everywhere. In 2018, there were a total of 85 offensive pass interference penalties, according to nflpenalties.com. This year, we're on pace for nearly 130 offensive pass interference calls. That represents a year-over-year increase if about 53 percent. On the defensive side, pass interference calls are basically flat (249 last year, on pace for about 240). The Steelers are tied for the most offensive pass interference penalties this year (4), and have committed the second-most defensive pass interference penalties (4).
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