CARSON, Calif. -- When the 2019 season began, you'd have gotten good odds on both the Steelers and Chargers winning their respective divisions.
Neither was quite the favorite, mind you, but smart money gave them both solid chances to do so. And both were considered strong playoff contenders in the AFC, which doesn't have the overall depth of the NFC.
That's why when these two teams meet Sunday night at Dignity Health Sports Park, the Chargers' temporary home in Los Angeles, neither has given up on their season, despite slow starts.
Both have been rocked by injuries. For the Steelers, it's been at quarterback, where Ben Roethlisberger and now his replacement, Mason Rudolph, are both out. Undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges will make his first career start while Rudolph recovers from a concussion suffered in last week's 26-23 overtime loss to the Ravens.
For the Chargers, the injuries have been more widespread. All-Pro safety Derwin James was lost at training camp, while left tackle Russell Okung developed a heart issue that has sidelined him all season. Just this past week, the Chargers lost Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey, the twin brother of Steelers' center Maurkice Pouncey, leaving an already sub-par line even more thin.
It's added up to a 1-4 start for the Steelers -- with their past three losses coming by a combined nine points -- and a 2-3 start for the Chargers, including a shocker at home last week to the previously winless Broncos.
But neither team is ready to pack things in.
“We know they have dealt with some injuries on the other side," Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers said. "It will be a tough challenge. You see with them some of the games they have lost, how they have been down to the wire also. It will be a heck of a game, as it seems like we have had a handful the last decade plus with Pittsburgh, and they all come down to the wire. It will be a heck of a game.”
Just like last season's 33-30 win by the Chargers in Pittsburgh, where Rivers led the visitors back from a 23-7 deficit.
But the Chargers were excellent on the road last season. They went 8-0 in games in which they actually got on an airplane in the regular season, with a loss as the road team to the Rams in Los Angeles as their lone road blemish last season. They also won as a home team in London against the Titans.
In two seasons playing games at Dignity Health Sports Park -- a soccer complex that seats 27,000 -- the Chargers are 5-5. They don't have much of a home field advantage.
And the stadium has typically been filled with fans of the other team. There are worse places for a young quarterback to be making his first career start, especially one from a small school such as Hodges, a product of Samford. Seibert Stadium, where Samford plays its home games, has a seating capacity of 6,700.
"You can’t keep it simple that it’s so simple that it’s not effective, but you better be careful, and maybe just go back in time and see the things he’s done really well," Steelers offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner said of planning for Hodges to start. "He’s had some in-game experience in preseason. He’s had a lot of scrimmage-type opportunities down in training camp. Friday night lights, things like that. So, when you start pulling out some of the old tape there and start looking, and say, “Wow, remember Duck did that.”
That's what little available tape there is of Hodges. Chargers coach Anthony Lynn admitted his team wasn't aware of Hodges in the pre-draft process and has had to play catch-up.
"We just saw a little snap of him last week," Lynn said. "We went back and looked at what he did in college. He broke Steve McNair’s all-time passing records. There were times when he was on the big stage at Florida State, he only threw for 475 yards and two TDs, and he goes to Mississippi State and throws for 470 yards and four TDs. It just seems like being at a small school, every time he had the chance to play on a big stage he showed up.
“I watched him last week when he came in the game, he was very prepared. It was obvious. They went straight down the field and scored. He seems like a good football player.”
Will that be enough? That remains to be seen.
But know that both teams are not just hungry, they're starving for a victory.
"I’m only concerned with the outcome," Steelers defensive end Cameron Heyward said. "It’s hard to think positive when we’re not getting the outcome we want. We’re trucking along and trying to turn the ship. I know we’ve got good players in here. I know we’ve got the defense to do it."
Now, the only question is whether they have the quarterback to do so.
“He is an exciting kid,” said Maurkice Pouncey of Hodges. “He's motivated. He has a lot of confidence. That is what you like to see in a quarterback.
"He is cool as hell, too.”
It'd be a lot cooler if he'd win.
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: Steelers (1-4) vs. Chargers (2-3)
• When: 8:22 p.m.
• Where: Dignity Health Sports Park
• TV: WPXI (local), NBC (national)
• Radio: 102.5 WDVE, ESPN Pittsburgh
• Satellite: SiriusXM 225, Internet 826
• Forecast: 72 degrees, clear skies
• Lots open: 4:20 p.m.
• Will call open: 6:20 p.m.
• Gates open: 6:20 p.m.
• Boxscore: NFL Game Center
• Odds: MyBookie.AG
THE INJURY REPORT
Steelers: FB Roosevelt Nix (knee, out), QB Mason Rudolph (concussion, out), RB Jaylen Samuels (knee, out), WR James Washington (shoulder, out), LB Mark Barron (hamstring, out), CB Steven Nelson (groin, out)
Chargers: S Nasir Adderley (hamstring, doubtful), K Michael Badgley (groin, doubtful), DE Melvin Ingram (hamstring, questionable), RB Justin Jackson (calf, doubtful), TE Hunter Henry (knee, questionable)
THE KEY VARIABLE
Since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger, there have been just 11 instances in which a team has had two quarterbacks make their first career start in the first six weeks of a season. But eight of those instances came in 1987, when the NFL players went on strike.
So in reality, this will be just the fourth such instance when Hodges makes his debut.
The Steelers lost Rudolph's debut in San Francisco in Week 3, 24-20, with Rudolph being severely limited with what he was asked to do. Rudolph completed 14 of 27 passes for 174 yards with two touchdowns and one interception, but spent much of the game throwing the ball sideways. The Steelers also ran the ball just 22 times, gaining 79 yards.
At least the Steelers have some experience this season lining up on the road with a first-time starter at quarterback. Not that it's something they would recommend.
One thing that would be recommended would be running the ball more than the 22 times. The Chargers allow 4.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs and just gave up 191 yards on the ground last week in a 20-13 home loss to the Broncos.
James Conner had 55 yards on 14 carries last week in the loss to the Ravens, both of which were season highs. With a bye coming up next week, it might be time to allow Conner to carry the offense -- especially with Hodges at quarterback.
The Steelers have rushed for just 335 yards this season. There are 13 running backs in the league who have more yards rushing themselves. Conner, a Pro Bowl player in 2018, has 194 yards on the ground through five games, putting him on pace for 621 for the season.
The Steelers haven't had a running back lead their team with that few yards since Jonathan Dwyer had a team-high 623 in 2012.
“Even if we did have Ben still here, it wasn’t going to be a smooth ride either way," Conner said. "We know that there are going to be some tough games. So adversity is to be expected, and right now, with our record and our quarterback issue, we’ve just got to figure out a way to fight through it. Nobody’s going to feel sorry for us. We don’t want anybody to. We’ve just got to go out there and keep playing football."
It might not necessarily be that easy. Conner's backup, Jaylen Samuels, is out several weeks with a knee injury, while fullback Roosevelt Nix will miss his fifth consecutive game with a knee injury.
With Samuels out, rookie Benny Snell, a fourth-round pick, will move into the primary backup role, with Trey Edmunds having been added off the practice squad.
"Jaylen was just a unique individual. He will be missed, but I am really kind of excited for Benny," said Fichtner. "I’m excited for all of the new guys because you really just don’t know, and you may be looking at your new star. The truth is, he’s prepared and he’s got a job to do, and he’ll do it this week."
THE HISTORY LESSON
The Chargers shocked the Steelers at the end of the 1994 season, beating the double-digit favorites, 17-13, in the AFC Championship at Three Rivers Stadium.
The two teams met again Oct. 1, 1995 at Three Rivers Stadium, and the Steelers wasted no time showing which was the better team.
With Neil O'Donnell out, the Steelers started Mike Tomczak in the game. Or, as Bill Cowher called him, Mike Tom-a-zak.
The Steelers took the opening kickoff and methodically moved down the field to score on a 1-yard Bam Morris touchdown run to take a 7-0 lead.
On the Chargers' first possession, cornerback Willie Williams picked off Stan Humphries, returning the interception 63 yards for a touchdown and a 14-0 lead.
Later in the quarter, the Steelers intercepted Humphries again, this time with Alvoid Mays making the pick and returning it 32 yards to give the Steelers a 21-0 lead.
Humphries fumbled on the Chargers' next possession after a hit by defensive end Brentson Buckner, but recovered his own miscue. The Chargers, however, were forced to punt and the Steelers marched down for a 25-yard Norm Johnson field goal early in the second quarter.
The Chargers finally quit turning the ball over long enough to score on a 13-yard touchdown run by Natrone Means, but the Steelers answered that score with one of their own, as Morris got into the end zone from two yards out to give the Steelers a commanding 31-7 halftime lead.
As they often did in those days, the Steelers sat on the ball in the second half and let the defense hold things together, winning the game comfortably, 31-17.
Williams and Mays had two interceptions each, as the Steelers picked Humphries -- the star of the AFC Championship 10 months before -- four times in the game.
Tomczak threw for just 147 yards, completing 12-of-21 passes. But Erric Pegram rushed for 95 yards on 23 carries, as the Steelers held the ball for just over 33 minutes.
It didn't exactly exact retribution for the AFC Championship loss, but it did show these Steelers could score points, something the 1994 team struggled in doing.
THE MAIN MATCHUP
Sunday's game will mark the eighth time Rivers has faced the Steelers in his career. And Roethlisberger's 2004 draft class mate hasn't always fared well against the Steelers.
In fact, he's 3-4 in those games, including a postseason loss in January of 2009. His numbers in those games haven't been bad, but they haven't been spectacular, either. Rivers has completed 63 percent of his passes for an average of 261.7 yards per game with 17 touchdown passes, five interceptions, and with 18 sacks.
But when these two teams met last season at Heinz Field, Rivers heated up in the second half, throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns in a 33-30 victory that was tainted by some questionable officiating calls and non-calls.
The bottom line, however, was that the Chargers won the game -- at Heinz Field.
"It’s always a real challenging thing when you’re competing against the likes of Philip Rivers, and what he brings, not only in terms of his talents, but his football intellect and the amount of latitude he’s given at the line of scrimmage," Mike Tomlin said. "We acknowledge we’re playing him in his home environment, and recently we’ve played him here in Pittsburgh, so it’s probably going to have an added opportunity to infuse his intellect and know-how in the game and the line of scrimmage via communication and so forth. We better have a good package and plan."
Sometimes, even the best plans can go awry.
The Steelers led that contest 23-7 in the first half, limiting the Chargers to 140 yards of offense in the half, including two rushing yards on nine carries. But the longer the game went on, the more Rivers figured things out.
"He’s a smart quarterback," Steelers cornerback Joe Haden told me. "He’ll put their offense in the best position possible. He has control of the offense to be able to do that. It’s a game within a game that we have to play with him. We have to study the tape and know what he’s trying to do."
Rivers has played the Steelers enough that he's seen pretty much everything the Steelers can throw at you from a scheme standpoint. What he hasn't seen, however, is a lot of this particular personnel.
Cornerback Steven Nelson and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick are new on the back end of the defense, while rookie inside linebacker Devin Bush adds a speed factor the Steelers didn't have in 2018. Safety Terrell Edmunds also has been much better in his second season than he was as a rookie last season. Nelson, however, is questionable to play in this game because of a groin injury. If he can't, Artie Burns would get the start.
"It’s a good group. It's history stays with this team," Rivers said. "You see that old Pittsburgh defense from a style standpoint, from a physical standpoint, somewhat from a scheme standpoint. They’ve got two young safeties that are flying around, Pro Bowl veteran cornerbacks and a good front. It’s a good defense. They are leading the league in taking the ball away."
The Steelers enter Week 5 with 19 sacks and 12 takeaways. The sacks rank third in the league, while the takeaways are tied for first.
"Their front seven is really good, but their front five is as good as we’ve seen, I can tell you that," Lynn said. "They’re led by T.J. Watt and (Bud) Dupree. They do a good job up front. It’s a good front seven.”
And the Chargers' line is banged up. That could make life interesting for Rivers, who has never moved well in the pocket.
If the Steelers can get to Rivers, they might have a chance in this game, despite starting their third-string quarterback.
"I don’t know if there’s an emphasis on scoring because we have our third-string quarterback out there," Heyward told me. "As a defense, we feel like we’ve got to score every time we get our hands on the ball. We get put in great situations when that happens. We’ve got to capitalize on them."
THE QUOTES
• “It’s a good group. Its history stays with this team. You see that old Pittsburgh defense from a style standpoint, from a physical standpoint, somewhat from a scheme standpoint. They’ve got a young, two young safeties that are flying around, Pro Bowl veteran cornerbacks and a good front. It’s a good defense. They are leading the league in taking the ball away." -- Rivers on the Steelers' defense
• "It’s a picture of Walter Payton himself. It’s like his head statue kind of thing. It’s at my house right now. From going back home to coming back here, I haven’t had a lot of time to bring a bunch of stuff. I will probably keep it at the house, though." -- Hodges on his Walter Payton Award for being the best player in FCS last year
• "There are two carts in our stadium, there are probably two carts in every stadium. He walked off the field because he chose to walk off the field and because the medical experts were comfortable with his ability to walk off the field and his safety in it. Whether or not the cart was functioning is irrelevant to the fact that he walked off the field. And to be quite honest with you, I didn’t know that the cart wasn’t functioning till after the football game because I was more concerned with Mason. As he got himself together and was able to walk off the field, he was dialoging with me and others and that is kind of where our attention was. I didn’t realize that the cart story was such a story, even when I addressed you guys after the game." -- Tomlin on the cart not functioning correctly last week
THE TEN DATA POINTS
• The Steelers lead the all-time series against the Chargers, 22-8, including an 8-6 record on the road.
• The Steelers are 19-40 all-time on the West Coast in their history, including a 1-6 record under Tomlin, with that lone win coming against the Chargers. Cowher was 6-8 on the West Coast, but three of those wins came against the Chargers. Chuck Noll was 14-18, with four wins against the Chargers.
• The Steelers are 28-22 all-time in Sunday night games, including 17-11 under Tomlin.
• The Steelers are 4-20-1 all-time with a first-time starting quarterback, including 2-9-1 on the road.
• The Chargers have two or more turnovers in three of their first five games. They're 1-2 in those games, with the win coming in Week 1, when they beat the Colts in overtime when Adam Vinatieri missed three kicks in the game.
• Opposing kickers have missed a league-high 10 of 22 field goal and PAT attempts against the Chargers.
• The Steelers have scored a touchdown on just two of their past seven red zone trips. They led the NFL in red zone touchdown percentage in 2018.
• The Steelers lead the NFL with 40 tackles for a loss.
• Opposing running backs are averaging just 3.9 yards per carry against the Steelers.
• Quarterbacks making their first career starts are 7-0 ATS this season. The Steelers are 7-point underdogs.
FANTASY CORNER
Last week's lineup was very good, as Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller were an outstanding stack and the Steelers defense way outplayed its ridiculous pricing. It was all good for 172.54 points. Here's this week's lineup using DraftKings.com's salary totals. Today's lineup will feature the 15 Sunday and Monday games with a $50,000 salary limit.
Quarterback: Kyler Murray ($6,500): Murray is starting to run the ball more, which is kind of the cheat code for fantasy quarterbacks. It's like having another running back in the lineup and adds a lot of value. He should be good against Atlanta's awful defense.
Running backs: Le'Veon Bell ($6,400), Chris Carson ($6,000): Bell gets the Dallas defense, and we saw what Green Bay did to it running the ball last week. Carson faces the Browns, who are still allowing the 49ers to run for yards a week after their game ended.
Wide receivers: Stefon Diggs ($5,900), Larry Fitzgerald ($6,100), DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400): I'm going with Diggs because Philadelphia's run defense is great, while the secondary is torchable. Fitzgerald gives me a stack with Murray, while Hopkins could be set to go off against the Chiefs.
Tight end: Gerard Everett ($3,600): If you've watched the Rams of late, you see Everett getting more involved in the passing game, including 11 targets last week. He's a nice, cheap value-play.
Flex: Adrian Peterson ($4,500): A running back going up against the Dolphins defense? Yes, please.
Defense: Packers ($3,600): The Packers at home should be a solid defensive start.
Dale Lolley (3-2): It would be a great story if Hodges could lead the Steelers to their first West Coast win since the last time they faced the Chargers without their starting quarterback. But the Steelers also are 4-20-1 with quarterbacks making their first career start. Hodges will be better than some of the national pundits think, but let's face it, he's facing a quarterback on the other side with more than 200 career starts. Experience does matter. The Steelers' defense will keep this close and could win it. But this will be rock bottom. Chargers, 20-16
Christopher Carter (1-4): Whatever West Coast voodoo hangs over the Steelers, they do have an improving defense this time. But it's a lot to ask for them to hold up with Hodges, an undrafted rookie quarterback, making his first career start. As a result, it will be a close defensive showdown with several turnovers, but Rivers will lead the Chargers to a last-second field goal. Chargers, 17-16
Hunter Homistek (4-1): I see potential for the Steelers' defense to put on a show in this one. But I also see Hodges making some mistakes and turning the ball over at least twice. Ultimately, I think Rivers will work the middle of the field enough, and while Hodges will put up some points, his turnovers will be the difference as the Chargers win a close one. Chargers, 27-20
Matt Sunday (3-2): I’m a full-blown believer in this Steelers’ defense, and I’ve been that way since seeing Fitzpatrick’s impact on the already speedy group. And, I believe in Hodges and did so enough during camp that I didn’t think they could risk cutting him. Luckily, they got away with the cut and I’m excited to shoot his start. But, nothing has gone right for this team. I don’t expect it to suddenly start. Chargers, 30-24
Dejan Kovacevic (1-4): If Rivers wanted nothing to do with the Broncos' pass rush, he might well stay on the sideline after seeing this one. The Steelers' defense will get after him, will force him to move the ball quickly. It'll be up to the Devin Bush and the second wave to settle the rest. Which they will. And Duck will bring just enough swag to the other side. This will be wild. Steelers, 31-10
