Despite a barrage of injuries and more callups from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton than anyone anticipated, the Penguins are off to a strong start in 2019-20. They're succeeding by playing quintessential Mike Sullivan hockey. North-south, up-tempo skating. Ferocious back checking. Battling in the corners for possession. Smart decisions with the puck. They look nothing like the club that got swept out of the first round of last year's playoffs while playing fire wagon hockey.
And the poster boy for the inspired, opportunistic and responsible Penguins?
None other than Kris Letang.
While he has long been one of the best all-around defensemen on the planet, Letang has drawn ire from fans and analysts for going rogue and creating chances for the opposition. He was the subject of trade rumors this past offseason, and Jim Rutherford didn't exactly shoot them down. But Letang has arguably been the Penguins' MVP so far this year by playing the best two-way hockey of his 14-year career.
Let's start with Letang's offense.
He's taking rifling pucks at opposing goalies with so many high-profile forwards sidelined, averaging a career-high 3.78 shots per game in '19-20. His full-season career high was 3.17, set last year, and his career average is 2.6. No NHL blue liner has taken more shots this year. And he's converting, with 1.11 points per game. That would again represent a new career best (his full-season high is 1.09 in 2012-13), and it's the fourth-highest points per game total among defensemen who have skated at least 100 minutes in '19-20. And, while Letang gets called out at times for reckless decisions, he hasn't been incredibly turnover-prone. He has committed 2.85 giveaways per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, which is the 40th-highest rate among defensemen.
Letang recently became the 67th defenseman in NHL history to cross the 500 point threshold. That's impressive company, no matter the context. But when you consider that he has played a fair amount of his distinguished career during a lower-scoring era, it's even more impressive. While Letang has 503 career points, he has 653 adjusted points according to Hockey-Reference's calculations. Adjusted points attempts to make an apples-to-apples comparison of players across eras by accounting for the league-wide scoring environment in which someone skates. Of the 67 defensemen in the 500 point club, Letang has the fifth-best adjusted points per game rate (0.87). The only guys ahead of him are three Hall of Famers, and a high-scoring peer who's on his way to achieving that kind of recognition in the future:
Letang's offensive brilliance is obvious. But what might not be as obvious is that he's performing as well as ever on the other side of the puck.
With Letang on the ice during even-strength play, the Penguins are allowing just 25.3 shots per 60 minutes of ice time. That's the lowest shots allowed rate of Letang's career, and it's the 15th-lowest rate among the 142 defensemen who have skated at least 100 minutes at even strength this season, according to Natural Stat Trick. Pittsburgh is giving up only 20 scoring chances per 60 minutes at even strength with Letang skating (a career best and 11th-lowest among NHL defensemen), and 8.2 high-danger scoring chances (yet again a career low). High-danger shots are those with the highest odds of ending up in the back of the net, based on factors like shot location, shot type, and odd-man rush situations.
He's creating offense, and suppressing offense, like never before. And like usual, Letang is doing that at a prodigious pace. His average ice time (25:45) is fifth-highest among all NHL players. With exceptional two-way play, Letang has been one of the best players in the game at his position from a puck possession standpoint. The Penguins are generating 10.6 percent more of the game's total even-strength shots when Letang is on the ice compared to when he's not skating. That's the highest rate of Letang's career, topping his 2012-13 season (8.5 percent), and it's the eighth-best differential among defensemen this season.
Whether he's unleashing wicked wristers, waiting out sprawling would-be shot blockers, or pressuring opponents into turnovers, Letang has been a pleasure to watch. At age 32, with more than 18,000 regular-season minutes on his odometer, he's still at his peak.
MORE PENGUINS
• Danger zone: The early-season narrative for the 2019-20 Penguins has centered mostly on inspired play by veteran stars and several young, speedy players excelling while filling in for a cavalcade of injured forwards. But let's not lose sight of how awesome Matt Murray has been. Murray has faced the most high-danger shots (50) during five-on-five play among all NHL goalies this season, and he has an .860 save rate on those prime scoring chances. Since the beginning of the 2018-19 campaign, Murray has the sixth-best high-danger save rate (.847) among goalies with at least 2,000 minutes played at even strength.
• Man advantage: So far, the Penguins are spending considerably less time in the penalty box than the opposition. Pittsburgh has committed an average of 7.3 penalty minutes per game in 2019-20, which is 11th-lowest among teams and is down from 8.4 per game in 2018-19. The Pen's opponents, meanwhile, are committing 8.7 penalty minutes per game. That's 17th in the league, and up from 8.0 per game in '18-19. The Penguins' power play, down Evgeni Malkin and still trying to find a replacement for Phil Kessel, hasn't clicked quite as well as usual (18.8 percent, compared to 24.6 percent last year). The PK is treading water (81 percent kill rate, up from 79.7 percent in '18-19). Brandon Tanev is playing a prominent role in creating PP opportunities (he has drawn an NHL-high seven penalties) and shutting them down for the other club (he's averaging 1:30 per game of short-handed ice time).
STEELERS
• Fitzpatrick's impact: During his early tenure with the Steelers, Minkah Fitzpatrick is flashing the kind of coverage skills that made him a star at Alabama, the 11th pick in the 2018 draft and a player that Pittsburgh coveted enough to surrender a 2020 first-round selection. Teams have targeted Fitzpatrick deep, throwing passes when he was responsible for coverage an average of 14.6 yards past the line of scrimmage, according to Pro Football Reference's advanced stats. That's one of the 20-highest depth of target averages among all NFL players. But he's allowing just a 53.4 passer rating when targeted since arriving in Pittsburgh, which ranks in the top 25 among all defenders. Some aren't happy that the Steelers traded away a first-rounder, but they acquired a high-end talent in Fitzpatrick who will be here for years to come and who won't turn 23 until next month. He's showing why the trade was a move to win now, and win later.
• Air cover: Fitzpatrick's strong play is emblematic of the Steelers' continued improvement in pass coverage overall. Pittsburgh's pass defense has been about two percent better than that of an average NFL team in 2019 on a per-play basis, according to Football Outsiders. That's the ninth-best rate in the league. The Steelers ranked 17th in pass coverage (7.5 percent below average) in 2018. With Fitzpatrick in the fold, Steven Nelson acclimating well, and Cameron Sutton emerging in the slot, the Steelers are no longer outmanned in the secondary.
• Conner the crusher: While James Conner isn't lighting it up in the running game (he's averaging 3.2 yards per carry, down from 4.5 in 2018), he's absolutely trucking people in the short passing game. Conner has broken seven tackles as a receiver this season, which surpasses his 2018 total already (five) and is tied for second among all NFL pass-catchers this season. He's averaging ten yards after the catch per reception, trailing only Minnesota's Dalvin Cook (10.6) among all players. Conner has become the de facto number one receiving target for an injury-ravaged club that's struggling to get the ball to JuJu Smith-Schuster.
PIRATES
• The framing factor: In case you missed it, the Atlantic League--which is basically a laboratory for MLB at this point--implemented automated ball and strike calls this past season. Elias Diaz wouldn't mind if that tech made its way to the majors. Jacob Stallings is probably not a fan. That's because Diaz is dreadful at pitch-framing (getting called strikes on borderline pitches), and Stallings is borderline elite. Diaz's pitch-framing cost the Pirates about -14 runs compared to an average defensive catcher, according to Baseball Prospectus. That was dead last in MLB. Stallings, meanwhile, was +9 runs above average (11th among catchers, despite splitting starts with Diaz). Where, exactly, did Stallings steal extra strikes and where did Diaz squander them? Stallings was adept at getting calls on pitches that were located below the strike zone and off the plate. On pitches thrown low and to the left of the zone (from the catcher's vantage point), Stallings got a called strike 36.2 percent of the time according to MLB Statcast. The league average was just 25.8 percent. On pitches located low and to the right of the zone, Stallings had a called-strike rate of 44.1 percent (33.3 percent league average). Diaz struggled to frame low stuff. He had a 20 percent called-strike rate on pitches thrown low and to the left. On pitches located low but over the plate, his called-strike rate was 38.8 percent (49.6 percent MLB average). The bottom line: Stallings steals extra strikes on low pitches, while Diaz ends up expanding the zone for batters.
• Musgrove's splits: In some respects, 2019 was a breakthrough year for Joe Musgrove. The 26-year-old established new career bests in starts (31), innings pitched (170.1) and Wins Above Replacement (3.3; WAR measures a player's value compared to that of a fringe major leaguer). But if Musgrove is going to emerge as more than a competent, mid-rotation starter, he'll have to do a better job of taming left-handed hitters. Once you adjust for park factors and the league-wide offensive environment, Musgrove limited right-handed batters to an OPS that was 19 percent below average. In other words, he was 19 percent better versus righties than the average pitcher. But lefties? Musgrove was eight percent worse than average. In particular, Musgrove got ambushed when he threw a fastball to lefties. They clubbed his four-seam fastball for a .570 slugging percentage, and slugged .650 off his sinker, according to MLB Statcast. Musgrove has a deep repertoire (he threw fastballs to lefties about 48 percent of the time in 2019), but he needs at least passable heat to close the performance gap versus left-handers.
• Marte mashing: Starling Marte turned in a career year from a power-hitting standpoint, launching 23 home runs (sixth among MLB center fielders) and slugging .503 (fourth at the position among players getting 400+ plate appearances). He accomplished those totals primarily by murdering fastballs. Marte popped 18 homers off fastballs in 2019 and slugged .590. While some players lose bat speed once they enter their thirties, that clearly hasn't been a problem for Marte. He hit a homer once every 25.3 at-bats off fastballs in 2017, every 20.2 ABs in 2018 and once every 18 ABs this past season. His slugging percentage off heat has jumped from .424 in '17, to .467 in '18, to 2019's mark of .590.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Coughing it up: The Steelers aren't the only team that's snatching more interceptions and scooping up more fumbles these days. Across the league, turnovers abound. The percentage of offensive drives that end with a turnover has increased in four consecutive seasons, according to Pro Football Reference: 11.3 in 2016, 11.4 in 2017, 11.8 in 2018 and 12.2 in 2019. The most turnover-prone offenses this year include the Giants (23.4 percent of offensive drives), Dolphins (18.8 percent) and Bengals (18.2 percent). The biggest ball hawks on defense are the Steelers (22.1 percent), Patriots (20.3 percent) and 49ers (18.2 percent).
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