For the first time since Troy Polamalu roamed the field like a Tasmanian Devil in shoulder pads, the Steelers have a potential franchise player at the safety position. And what better stage for Minkah Fitzpatrick to prove that—and demonstrate why the Steelers surrendered a 2020 first-rounder to get him—than on Monday Night Football against his former employer?
Fitpatrick’s All-Pro effort against Miami—including two interceptions and zero completions allowed when targeted in coverage—was just the latest example of how quickly the former Alabama star has acclimated to the Steelers.
Take a quick look at where Fitzpatrick ranks among his peers at safety in some key categories, courtesy of Pro Football Reference:
As the Steelers’ center fielder, Fitzpatrick gets targeted deep down the field (an average of around 15 yards past the line of scrimmage, which ranks fourth-highest among qualified safeties). But he’s doing a fine job of shutting down those would-be splash plays, and has lowered his passer rating against in 2019 from an already-solid 64.6 rating as a rookie last year. When QBs do connect on a pass, he’s allowing just 2.2 yards after the catch (down from 5.6 yards after the catch as a rookie).
Fitzpatrick has been a decided upgrade over the man he replaced. Last season, Sean Davis allowed a 112.7 passer rating when targeted in coverage, and 9.3 yards per target. Davis allowed 6.9 yards after the catch. With Fitzpatrick, opponents are no longer able to pick on the Steelers deep down the middle of the field.
With three INTs already, Fitzpatrick is showing the kind of ball skills that have been sorely lacking at safety for Pittsburgh in recent years. Over the past decade, the Steelers have only had three safeties pick off at least three passes in a season: Davis (three in 2017), Mike Mitchell (three in 2015) and Polamalu (seven in 2010). Who knows, if Fitzpatrick keeps up this pace, he could have one of the best ball-hawking seasons ever for a Pittsburgh safety. Mike Wagner holds the single-season record with eight INTs back in 1973, followed by seven apiece for Polamalu (2010 and 2008), Darren Perry (1994) and Donnie Shell (1980 and 1984).
Fitzpatrick has played all of five games for the Steelers, but the early returns are superb. Since being liberated from a team that may well go 0-16, he has performed like a cornerstone piece of a younger, faster Pittsburgh defense. With guys like T.J. Watt and Devin Bush flying around in the front seven, and Fitzpatrick thinking pick-six in the back, this defense is at least giving the Steelers a chance during a season that could have turned into a horror movie by now.
MORE STEELERS
• Going deep on Rudolph: Some Steelers fans have been clamoring for the QB Mason Rudolph to take more shots deep down the field. He did just that against the Dolphins, but the outcome was a mixed bag. The former Oklahoma State gunslinger threw his passes an average of 12.8 yards past the line of scrimmage, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That was the highest intended air distance of any QB during Week 8, and it compares to Rudolph’s 8.6 yard average overall this year. On passes that traveled ten yards or more past the line of scrimmage, Rudolph had eight completions in 20 attempts for 151 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Either offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner opened up the playbook against one of the NFL’s all-time worst teams, or Rudolph was feeling more confident in throwing the deep ball. Either way, he needs to do better on those down-field shots.
• So you’re saying there’s a chance: Despite devastating injuries, costly drops and game-changing fumbles, the 2019 Steelers aren’t dead yet. Pittsburgh has about a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the Football Outsiders website. Capturing the AFC North is a real long shot with Lamar Jackson and Baltimore thriving (12 percent chance), but the wild card is a more, well, semi-realistic possibility. Those playoff odds are surely helped out by the fact that the Steelers’ remaining opponents have a combined record of 28-37-1 (.432 winning percentage).
PENGUINS
• The Schultz-Pettersson connection: The Penguins have paired Justin Schultz and Marcus Pettersson in 2019-20, looking to complement Schultz's offensive prowess with Pettersson's stifling defensive play and puck-moving ability. It may be a winning duo over the long run, but the early returns are mixed. With Schultz and Pettersson skating together during five-on-five play, Pittsburgh has taken 47.7 percent of the game's total shots while generating 44.8 percent of scoring chances and 45.3 percent of high-danger scoring chances (those with the best odds of becoming a goal based on shot type, shot location, and odd-man rushes), according to Natural Stat Trick. Fifty percent is the break-even rate on those stats, so the Penguins have been chasing the puck more often than not with Schultz and Petterson on the ice. My guess is that coach Mike Sullivan gives this pairing more time to gel, and that they eventually thrive together.
• The walking dead: When it comes to injuries, the 2019-20 Penguins are unfortunately in a class all their own. Pittsburgh has already had nearly 60 many games lost, according to the NHL Injury Viz website. That's tops in the NHL. The combined cap hit of those injured Penguins (their per-game salaries multiplied by their number of man games lost) is above $2 million, an NHL-leading total for money spent on players who can't take the ice. The next closest teams in terms of salary spent on injured players are the Red Wings ($1.9 million), Stars ($1.7 million), Maple Leafs ($1.7 million) and Senators ($1.5 million). Last season, the Penguins spent about $11 million combined on players out due to injuries (ninth-highest among NHL teams).
• Juuso at wing: With a glut of defensemen on the roster before the Erik Gudbranson trade and a litany of injuries at forward, coach Mike Sullivan occasionally resorted to playing Juuso Riikola at wing. It beat another night in the press box for the 25-year-old Finnish defenseman, but the transition was understandably rough. During even-strength situations, the Penguins generated 12 percent fewer shots with Riikola skating as a forward compared to when he was off the ice. That's the worst shot share among any Penguins forward who has appeared in at least three games, and compares to -3.3 percent fewer shots for Riikola in 2018-19 when he was fulfilling his normal job description on the blue line. It's a good thing for the Penguins as a whole, and Riikola and particular, that this team is getting healthier.
PIRATES
• Marte's trade value: Considering the decrepit state of the franchise, his team-friendly contract and his age, Starling Marte could be on the move this winter. But just what could the Pirates expect to get back if they decide to trade their 31-year-old center fielder, who's coming off a season in which he established new career bests in home runs (23) and slugging percentage (.503)? Let's start with the contract. The Pirates hold no-brainer club options on Marte for the 2020 and 2021 seasons, at a combined $24 million. Over that time, the ZiPs projection system on Fangraphs--which forecasts player performance based on multi-year production, typical aging curves and historically similar players--thinks Marte will produce about six Wins Above Replacement (WAR). WAR measures a player's offensive, defensive and base running value compared to a fringe major leaguer. One WAR is estimated to be worth about $8 million, so Marte's production over the next two seasons figures to be worth close to $50 million. That's about double his actual salary in 2020-21. So, he has something like $25 million in surplus value (the difference between how much his performance is worth, and his actual salary). According to a study of prospects over the course of nearly two decades conducted by Fangraphs, that $25 million surplus value is worth roughly the 50th to 75th-best prospect in baseball. So if the Pirates decide to deal Marte, expect a good haul--but don't necessarily expect to get someone pegged as a superstar.
• Bell after the break: Before the All-Star break, Josh Bell was a monster (27 home runs and a .648 slugging percentage). After, he was just another dude (ten homers, .429 slugging percentage). A reader recently asked whether pitchers approached Bell differently during his so-so second half. So, did they? They tiptoed around him all year, throwing 37.7 percent of pitches in the strike zone during the first half and 37.6 percent in the second half, according to Fangraphs. And, despite the perception that he was pressing late in the year, Bell's chase rate was about the same in the first half (30.9 percent) and second half (28.9 percent). In terms of pitch type, he saw fewer fastballs as the season progressed (52 percent four-seamers and sinkers in the first half, 47 percent in the second half) and more sliders (10.9 percent in the first half, 16.5 percent in the second half. Bell was awesome versus the heat in the first half (+1.6 runs better than an average MLB hitter, per 100 pitches seen) and average after the break (+0.1). His performance versus sliders suffered, too, though he remained good against that pitch type (+2.2 runs per 100 sliders seen before the break, and +0.9 after). The biggest change was against changeups. He saw the pitch about 20 percent in both halves, but he was +0.4 runs above average per 100 season prior to the break and -2.6 runs below average once he returned from Cleveland. Pitchers tiptoed around Bell all year, but they gave him fewer fastballs to feast on as the year progressed and fared better when throwing breaking and off-speed stuff.
• First-pitch pummeling: Pirates pitchers were horrendous on the first pitch of at-bats in 2019, surrendering the third-highest opponent slugging percentage (.695) among MLB teams. Only the Orioles (.754) and Cubs (.723) were worse. And no Pirates got lit up more often on the first pitch than Chris Archer. Archer gave up an .840 slugging percentage on the first pitch last season, which was the ninth-worst mark among all MLB pitchers who started at least 20 games. Steven Brault (.786 first-pitch slugging percentage against) and Trevor Williams (.724) also looked Charlie Brown-esque as soon as hitters stepped in the box.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Young slugging: Juan Soto just became old enough to chug the champagne that has flowed from the Washington Nationals' clubhouse this postseason, but the precocious superstar is killing it (he's got a .536 slugging percentage in the playoffs, nearly identical to his regular-season mark). He's also the poster child for a league-wide trend in MLB: Today's young sluggers are arguably better than ever. Position players age 21 or young posted a collective batting line that was 22 percent better than the overall MLB average during the 2019 regular season, according to Fangraphs. That's tied with 2012 for the highest adjusted batting line in MLB history for players age 21 or younger. Fernando Tatis Jr. (50 percent above average), Soto (42 percent) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (26 percent) were especially lethal in 2019.
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