By now, you know the Mike Sullivan mantra. Be hard to play against. Win puck battles. Limit odd-man rushes. Play north-south hockey. It's a philosophy that, along with several Hall of Fame talents, catalyzed back-to-back Stanley Cups. And it's a philosophy that seemingly fell on deaf ears in 2018-19, when the Penguins were swept out of the first round of the playoffs while playing fire wagon hockey.
So far in 2019-20, however, the Penguins are playing peak Sullivan hockey. The parallels to the 2015-16 team--one that also relied on Wilkes-Barre/Scranton call-ups, weathered serious injuries and dominated puck possession nonetheless--are hard to miss. They're not getting fully rewarded for their efforts in the standings so far, but the process has been excellent.
Let's take a closer look at how the Penguins are playing a more responsible style of hockey, while remaining potent offensively.
Last season, the Penguins managed to rack up 100 points despite playing reckless at times. They were among the NHL's worst in terms of allowing shots during five-on-five play, and they ranked in the middle of the pack when it came to allowing scoring chances. On the offensive side, they coughed up the puck frequently.
This year?
They're one of the NHL stingiest teams in shots and scoring chances allowed, and they're not making the kind of careless decisions with the puck that fuel the opposing club's offense:
Pittsburgh ranks eighth in the NHL in even-strength shots allowed per game (25th in 2018-19), fifth in scoring chances allowed (13th last year) and seventh-best in giveaways (15th in '18-'19).
The Penguins' best players in suppressing shots include Dominik Kahun (23.5 per 60 minutes of even-strength play), Jared McCann (24.2), rookie John Marino (25.3), Zach Aston-Reese (26) and Brian Dumoulin (26.2). McCann (15.2 scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes), Adam Johnson (18), Brandon Tanev (18.7), Kahun (19.2) and Aston-Reese (19.2) have stood out in limiting scoring chances. When it comes to giveaways, Justin Schultz has made a notable improvement (2.8 per 60 minutes last season, 1.2 this year), as have Dominik Simon (2.0 in 2018-19, 1.3 this year) and Marcus Pettersson (2.2 in '18-19, 1.7 in '19-20).
With a commitment to defense and better puck decisions, the Penguins have improved their goals allowed rate from 2.9 per game in 2018-19 (14th in the league) to 2.6 per game (eighth). Pittsburgh has also been more disciplined in limiting power plays. Last year, they spent an average of 8.4 minutes per game in the penalty box (16th in the NHL). This year, they're averaging just 6.9 penalty minutes per game (fourth-lowest).
This responsible playing style hasn't dragged down the Penguins' offensive attack much, either. Pittsburgh ranks tenth in the league in goals per game (3.4), which is about the same as their 3.3 goals in 2018-19. They boast the third-best goal differential in the Eastern Conference (+12), and they have improved their even-strength shot share from 49.7 percent last year (15th) to 53.4 percent (second).
With seemingly half of the team's forwards ailing, the Penguins could have entered November buried in the Metropolitan Division. Instead, they buckled down and controlled the puck with a half-dozen Baby Pens in the lineup. If Evgeni Malkin and other talented veterans can return to the ice with that same commitment, and the team can get a few more fortuitous bounces, the 2019-20 Penguins could bury memories of last year's first-round bow out.
MORE PENGUINS
• Simon scoring: Simon has been praised by Sullivan and Sidney Crosby for being strong on the puck and driving possession for the Penguins. He has also been, somewhat derisively, labeled the Corsi King by fans who don't think he has enough finishing ability to be a top-line winger. So far in 2019-20, Simon is silencing those critics by finding the scorer's sheet more often. He's averaging 0.6 points per game, up from 0.39 during the 2018-19 season. Simon is spending more time in the offensive zone (62 percent of his zone starts have come near the opposing goalie, compared to 56 percent last year) and he's putting more shots on the net. Simon is taking 2.1 shots per game this year, an increase from 1.7 last season and his 1.5 career average.
• Lafferty's first taste: A roster crunch sent Sam Lafferty back to the AHL, but the 24-year-old made a favorable first impression in the NHL. Lafferty compiled six points in ten games, while generating plenty of excitement on both sides of the puck. With Lafferty on the ice during five-on-five play, the Penguins had 9.6 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. That's the sixth-highest rate among Pittsburgh forwards, behind Jake Guentzel (12.6), Crosby (12.2), Simon (11.9), Aston-Reese (10.8) and Teddy Blueger (10.1). He also proved adept at stealing the puck from the opposition, averaging a team-best 3.2 takeaways per 60 minutes at even strength. Odds are, this guy won't be at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton for long.
STEELERS
• Bud's breaking out: Over the first four years of his NFL career, Bud Dupree was labeled an underachiever. The 22nd overall pick in the 2015 draft was supposed to be a pass-rushing menace, yet he never took down the quarterback more than six times in a season. Well, Dupree's starting to change that narrative--and just in time for the 26-year-old to cash in after the 2019 campaign. Dupree has already matched his previous career high in sacks, and he's on pace to set new career bests in several other splash play categories. He has eight tackles for loss, which matches full-season total in 2018 and ranks in the top 15 among all NFL defenders. Dupree's career high in TFL is 12 in 2017. He also has 15 QB pressures, ranking in the top 30 in the league (he had 25 pressures last year). With nine QB hits, he ranks in the top 25 among defenders and is on pace to top his high-water mark of 13 set last season. With T.J. Watt playing at an All-Pro level and Dupree finally altering games himself, the Steelers have one of the game's best outsider linebacker combos.
• Mason's security blanket: Jaylen Samuels was a non-factor in the running game versus the Colts (eight carries for ten yards), but the multi-purpose back had one of the most active days ever for a Steeler in the receiving game. Samuels hauled in 13 catches on 13 targets, though all of that activity accounted for just 73 yards. Samuels' 13 catches were tied for the sixth-highest total in a regular-season game for a Steeler during the post-merger era (1970 to the present), ranking behind four games by Antonio Brown (17 versus Oakland in 2015, 16 versus Denver in 2015, 14 versus Dallas in 2016 and 14 against New Orleans in 2018) and one by Courtney Hawkins (14 versus Tennessee in 1998). Samuels' high-catch, low-yardage day is emblematic of the Steelers' passing game as a whole, and their reliance on running backs. The Steelers are averaging just six net yards per passing attempt in 2019, which is tied for 21st among NFL clubs. Their running backs have 32.9 percent of the team's receptions this year. Last season, the running backs had 18.3 percent of the Steelers' total receptions.
• He caught that? For at least one game, a couple of record-setting Oklahoma State Cowboys re-discovered their connection in the pros. Mason Rudolph targeted James Washington four times versus the Colts, and the previously struggling second-year receiver hauled in all four passes for 69 yards. That's a new single-game career high in yardage for Washington. They weren't just run-of-the-mill catches, either. In fact, one of those catches--a 40-yard dart deep in the fourth quarter--had just a 23 percent chance of being completed, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Next Gen Stats measures the odds of a pass completion based on factors like pass distance, game situation (down and distance), and where the nearest defenders are located on the field. That Rudolph-to-Washington highlight was the second-most improbable completion during Week 9, and it's the third-most improbable catch for the Steelers in 2019 (Rudolph threw a successful 45-yard pass to JuJu Smith-Schuster in Week 2 that had a 22 percent catch probability, and Ben Roethlisberger had a 45-yard pass to Washington in Week 1 that had a 19 percent catch probability).
PIRATES
• Pitching development failures: If you can pinpoint one root cause for why Neal Huntington is now the ex-GM of the Pirates, it's this: the team's pitching development pipeline is busted. During the MLB Drafts that Huntington and his staff oversaw (2008-2019), the Pirates selected just two pitchers who went on to throw at least 100 major league innings for the team while posting at least an average park-adjusted ERA, according to Baseball Reference. Those guys are 2011 first overall pick Gerrit Cole and 2010 second overall pick Jameson Taillon, who both had ERAs that were 12 percent better than average in Pittsburgh. That's it. That's the list. If that's not a damning indictment of the whole pitching development system, I don't know what is.
• Frazier's fielding: Not long ago, Adam Frazier was considered a utility player who was stretched defensively at second base. Now, he's a Gold Glove finalist. And that recognition looks to be well-earned. Frazier's defense at the keystone saved the Pirates +6 runs compared to an average-fielding player at the position, according to the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) stat on Fangraphs. DRS measures an infielder's range, ability to turn double plays, and sure-handedness. Frazier was tied with Cesar Hernandez for the fourth-highest DRS total among MLB second basemen, trailing only NL Gold Glove winner Kolten Wong (+14 DRS), AL Gold Glove winner Yolmer Sanchez (+11) and NL runner-up Ozzie Albies (+8). Frazier's quality defense was a welcome sight for a Pirates team that was a collective -53 runs worse than average as measured by DRS (26th in the majors).
• Kela's Ks: The Pirates' presumed 2020 closer, Keone Kela, wasn't quite as dominant as usual when he was actually available to take the mound last year. Kela posted the lowest strikeout rate (27.7 percent of batters faced, 30.1 percent career average) and swinging strike rate (10.7 percent, 12.3 career average) of his MLB tenure. Kela induced fewer whiffs with both his four-seam fastball (19.1 percent in 2019, 24.1 percent in 2018) and his signature curveball (34.6 percent in '19, 42.1 percent in '18). And when batters did connect on Kela's curve, they did so with more authority. Opponents put Kela's curveball in play at an average of 88.3 mph in 2019, up considerably from 82.9 mph in 2018. Hopefully, his knockout curve makes a return next season. This team needs Kela to be a dominant, high-leverage reliever.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• There's always next year: The Nationals are your 2019 World Series champs, delivering the first title ever for the Expos/Nats franchise (which dates back to 1969) and D.C.'s first title since the Senators won it all in 1924. Now that Washington has ended its near century-long World Series drought, the longest-suffering people are fans of the Indians (71 years since its last World Series win), Rangers (59 years, including 11 title-less years as the Washington Senators), Brewers (51, including one season as the Seattle Pilots), Mariners (43 years) and your Pittsburgh Pirates (40 years).
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Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
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