The Steelers have no right being anywhere near a playoff race. Not when they’re down a future Hall of Fame QB, giving carries to practice squad guys and generating points at a clip that looks straight out of the pre-Chuck Noll era. And yet, here they are, with a 5-4 record and a soft upcoming schedule that includes games against the overhyped Browns and winless Bengals. This injury-ravaged, offensively-challenged squad that began the year 1-4 now has a 53 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to Football Outsiders.
And for that, you can thank a defense that is fast, opportunistic, balanced and—most alarmingly for opponents—getting better each week.
Is the curtain rising on another dominant Steelers defense?
Let’s break down how this unit has propped up a nearly pulseless offense and kept Pittsburgh in playoff contention.
Let's start with the pass rush, which has been nothing short of fierce. The Steelers have racked up 33 sacks through their first nine games, which ranks behind only the Carolina Panthers (36) among all NFL teams. Defensive Player of the Year candidate T.J. Watt leads the team and places fifth among all players with 9.5 QB takedowns. Bud Dupree (six sacks) and Cam Heyward (5.5) have also brought the pain.
Sacks are great, but the Steelers' pass-rushing prowess goes beyond that. They're often harassing QBs even when they don't register a sack, giving opponents less time to throw and potentially forcing them into bad decisions (more on that later). Pittsburgh has generated QB pressure on 27.6 percent of pass attempts, according to Pro Football Reference. That ranks third in the league, behind the San Francisco 49ers (31.8 percent) and Jacksonville Jaguars (28 percent). They have also knocked down the QB on 8.8 percent of pass attempts, which ranks fourth among teams this year.
In the running game, the Steelers are surrendering just 3.9 yards per attempt (tied for the eighth-lowest rate in the NFL). And when running backs do see some daylight, this defense is quick to shut them down. The Steelers rank eighth in the league in rushing yards allowed that are gained between five to ten yards past the line of scrimmage, according to Football Outsiders. When the running back is 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage, they're allowing the second-fewest yards among teams. That's an indication that they're not whiffing on tackles or getting wildly out of position in the run game.
And that once-maligned pass defense? It's looking like one of the best units in the league. Pittsburgh is allowing just 5.8 net yards per pass attempt, tied for the sixth-lowest rate in the league. This defense has already picked off 14 passes, led by Minkah Fitzpatrick (who's tied for the NFL lead with five) and Devin Bush (two). Fitzpatrick, in particular, has been stellar and is a player of the year candidate in his own right. As a Steeler, he's allowing just a 56.3 percent completion rate, a 57.3 percent passer rating and 6.5 yards per attempt when targeted in coverage, per Pro Football Reference's advanced stats. He ranks in the top ten among safeties in all three categories. Free agent signee Steven Nelson has also stood out, with a 52.8 percent completion rate, 70.6 passer rating and 5.9 yards per target allowed. This team, routinely torched for long gains in years past, has given up the seventh-fewest pass plays of 20+ yards (25) and second-fewest plays of 40+ yards (two).
While the defense could stand to improve in avoiding penalties (they have the eighth-most in the league, with 71), they're doing a nice job of wrapping up opponents. The Steelers have 47 missed tackles, which is the eighth-fewest in the game. Nelson (3.1 percent missed tackle rate), Vince Williams (3.4 percent) and Joe Haden (six percent) have been the most reliable.
With athletic defenders at all three levels, the Steelers have transformed from a team that couldn't buy a turnover in 2018 (they caused them in just 8.2 percent of opposing drives, 28th in the league) to certified ball hawks. With a 23.8 percent turnover rate, the Steelers defense leads the NFL. They're flipping the field at a better rate than any other Steelers team since Football Reference began tracking the stat in 1998:
It's a miracle that the 2019 Steelers--who rank 28th in total offense--look to be in a prime spot to get a wild card spot. And it's easy to envision continued dominance from a defense that features so many key players who are entering or are in their prime, including Bush (age 21), Terrell Edmunds (22), Fitzpatrick (23), Watt (25), Javon Hargrave (26), Nelson (26), Dupree (26) and the injured Stephon Tuitt (26). If the offense can evolve to be at least semi-competent, look out.
MORE STEELERS
• Run blocking decline: The Steelers’ run game has been practically nonexistent in 2019, with the team ranking 27th in yards per carry (3.5) and total yardage (749). There are a variety of reasons for that lousy output, from injuries at the position to a low-octane passing game that allows defenders to stay closer to the line of scrimmage. But it’s also fair to cast some blame at the offensive line, which remains elite at pass blocking (Pittsburgh has allowed a 3.5 percent sack rate, second-lowest in the NFL) but is struggling to create running lanes. The Steelers rank 26th in Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) with 3.87 per attempt. ALY is a Football Outsiders metric that measures an offensive line's ability to open up holes for running backs based on down, distance and opponent. Rushing yards gained closer to the line of scrimmage are credited more to the O-line, while yards downfield are credited more to the running back. For comparison’s sake, the Steelers ranked 15th in ALY in 2018 and seventh in 2017. The Steelers have only had success running around the left end of the line (they rank 11th in ALY in that direction). They rank 24th or worse in runs to all other directions. As this unit ages, it’s looking like their ability to manhandle opponents is waning.
• Getting separation: For the second week in a row, James Washington was the Steelers’ most effective target in the passing game. The second-year wide out caught six of the seven passes thrown his way for 90 yards and a touchdown. Washington established new career highs in both receptions and yardage. A week after displaying his ability to outmuscle DBs and win contested balls, Washington showed off his ability to get separation versus the Rams. Washington had an average of 3.1 yards of separation between the nearest defender at the time of his receiving targets, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That ranked in the top 15 among NFL receivers during Week 10, and compares to his 2.6 average overall in 2019. After a bumpy start to his NFL career, Washington is starting to justify his second-round draft status.
PENGUINS
• Power outage: Perennially one of the league's best teams with the man advantage, the Penguins have been putrid on the power play so far. With a 12.5 percent success rate, Pittsburgh is 28th in the NHL on the power play and is falling well short of the 19.3 percent league average. The Penguins ranked fifth in power play rate in 2018-19 (24.6 percent), and posted a league-best and franchise-best 26.2 percent rate in 2017-18. In fact, you've got to go back to 2015-16 to find the last time that the Penguins ranked outside of the top ten in power play percentage (they were 17th, while still managing to win the Stanley Cup). Right now, they're having the same level of success as the inaugural 1967-68 team which set a franchise low at 13.3 percent. The underlying stats for the 2019-20 power play aren't rosy, either. The Penguins rank 16th in the league in shot share on the PP (86.8 percent) and 11th in the game's share of scoring chances (90 percent). There's too much talent for the PP to remain this bad, but this is a lousy start.
• Feeling dangerous: The Penguins are generating plenty of premium scoring opportunities in 2019-20, ranking fourth in the NHL in high-danger scoring chances. High-danger chances are the offensive opportunities that have the best odds of being converted into a goal based on shot type, shot location and odd-man rush situations. And they're making those chances count, converting them into goals at the second-best rate (11.9 percent) among NHL teams. Only the Predators (12.9 percent) have been better. Marcus Petterson has been on the ice for a team-best ten high-danger goals for this season, while Jake Guentzel and Dominik Simon are second at nine apiece. Pittsburgh ranked fifth in high-danger chances last year, but they were 23rd in converting those into goals.
• Marino a pro: In the span of about three months, John Marino has gone from a semi-intriguing prospect whom the Penguins acquired for a sixth-round pick to an indispensable part of their current and future plans on the blue line. The 22-year-old rookie from Harvard has helped the Penguins generate 52 percent of the game's total shots when he's skating during even-strength situations, which is third among the team's defensemen behind Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin. Pittsburgh has generated 52 percent of scoring chances when Marino's skating, and 58.2 percent of high-danger chances. Among all rookie defensemen with 100+ minutes of even-strength ice time, he ranks fifth in shot share, ninth in scoring chances and fourth in high-danger chances, while also placing first in shots against per 60 minutes (26.4). Between Marino and Marcus Pettersson, the Penguins have received a serious infusion of youth and talent on D over the past year.
PIRATES
• Bottom of the barrel: Despite his wretched 2019 season, there was little doubt that the Pirates would pick up Chris Archer's $9 million club option for 2020 rather than buying him out for $1.75 million and letting him walk via free agency. There's a smorgasbord of improvement points for Archer next year--cutting his walks and homers allowed, and limiting first-pitch and early-game drubbings, and forgetting that he ever had a sinker for starters. But perhaps the most fundamental item he needs to work on is missing the sweet spot of opposing hitters' bats. In 2019, 10.5 percent of balls put in play against Archer were barreled, according to MLB Statcast. Barrel rate is the percentage of batted balls put in play that have characteristics (such as exit velocity and launch angle) that lead to at least a .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage. In other words, these are pitches that are smoked. Archer's barrel rate last year was well above his 6.9 percent career average, and ranked as the 12th-worst rate among pitchers with at least 200 balls put in play.
• Homer woes: Trevor Williams' ERA spiked from 3.11 in 2018 to 5.38 in 2019, which was the worst among all National League pitchers who tossed at least 140 innings. While his strikeout rate (17.8 percent of batters faced in 2019, 18 percent in 2018) and walk rate (6.9 percent in '19, 7.9 percent in '18) were similar, his home run rate jumped from 0.79 per nine to 1.67. Even in this power-hungry MLB era, that was the eighth-highest rate in the majors and second-highest in the NL among pitchers with 140+ innings. So, what changed? Williams' four-seam fastball was the main culprit. He served up 14 homers on four-seamers in 2019, double his total from '18 (seven). He also coughed up more long balls on sliders (five in '19, three in '18), changeups (four in '19, three in '18) and sinkers (three in '19, two in '18).
• Moving on: With new management and a (mostly) new coaching staff at the helm in 2020, it may be time to move on from one of Neal Huntington's biggest trade whiffs. When the Pirates acquired Colin Moran from the Astros in the Gerrit Cole deal, they hoped that the former sixth overall pick in the MLB draft was ready to tap into his power after slugging nearly .550 at Triple-A in 2017. That's hasn't happened, and if anything, Moran took a step back last year. His park and league-adjusted batting line was three percent worse than the overall MLB average last year. In 2018, his adjusted batting line was five percent above average. Moran's walk rate (six percent in '19, 8.4 percent in '18) and strikeout rate (23.3 percent in '19, 17.6 percent in '18) went in the wrong direction as he expanded his strike zone. And he remained a liability in the field, costing the Pirates 13 runs compared to an average-fielding third baseman according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric. DRS measures a player's fielding value compared to an average player at his position, while accounting for range, throwing arm, ability to turn double plays, and sure-handedness. That was second-worst in the majors. With potential Gold Glove candidate Ke'Bryan Hayes nearing the majors and still possessing some offensive upside despite a middling year at Triple-A, Moran's days in Pittsburgh could be numbered.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Dual-threat QBs: You could argue that we've never seen a QB quite like Baltimore's Lamar Jackson. The second-year player out of Louisville is on pace to finish the 2019 season with 1,248 rushing yards, which would shatter the current single-season high for a QB (1,039 by Mike Vick back in 2006). Aside from Vick, the only other QBs with even 900+ rushing yards in a season are Bobby Douglass (968 in 1972) and Randall Cunningham (942 in 1990). Jackson's not just a runner, either, with a 101.7 passer rating that is the fifth-best for a QB to rush for 500+ yards in a single season. The only fleet-footed QBs who had a better passer rating were Russell Wilson (110.1 in 2015), Steve Young (107 in 1992), Deshaun Watson (103.1 in 2018) and Robert Griffin (102.4 in 2012).
LET'S HEAR FROM YOU!
Stats ‘N’ At is a weekly feature that takes a deep dive into the numbers that define our city's sports scene.
Have a question? Post it in comments below!
