When it comes to evaluating a young quarterback, context is everything. And frankly, the context for Mason Rudolph in 2019 has been lousy.
During what amounts to an extended audition to be Ben Roethlisberger's successor, Rudolph hasn't had much support. The offensive line that shielded Roethlisberger so well and extended his career has declined, leaving Rudolph to deal with a collapsed pocket. He suffered a concussion. The skill position players have suffered myriad injuries--to the extent that the second-year passer's top options late in the Browns game were James Washington, a creaky Vance McDonald and a still-mending Jaylen Samuels. Rudolph hit rock bottom in Cleveland, throwing four picks and posting the worst single-game passer rating (36.3) for a Steelers quarterback with 25+ attempts since 2006.
He was having a bad night, even before Myles Garrett did something to him that would have landed Garrett in jail in any other workplace:
Rudolph's performance has to be viewed through the context of the chaos that surrounds him. But what insights can we really glean from the former Oklahoma State star's first half-season as a starting QB?
Let's take a closer look by fact-checking three common criticisms of Rudolph:
1, He's indecisive in the pocket and takes too long to throw the ball.
Rudolph does take more time to make a decision than most QBs. His average time to throw in 2019 is 2.83 seconds, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That is the ninth-longest average time to throw among 38 quarterbacks who have thrown 80+ passes this season.
Before the Cleveland game, though, that hadn't burned the Steelers too badly in terms of sacks allowed. And even with the Browns debacle, Rudolph's sack rate (5 percent of pass attempts) is below the 6.9 percent NFL average. So here again, you have to consider the context: Is Rudolph not reading coverage and finding the open man fast enough? Or are his receivers not getting open? Either way, Cleveland showed what can happen when elite pass rushers confront a QB who holds on to the ball for a long time.
2. He can't throw the deep ball.
Rudolph routinely took deep shots in college, but there's no doubt he has rarely thrown bombs this season. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, 27 percent of Rudolph's throws have been behind the line of scrimmage. Thirty-nine percent of his throws have been within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, 21.6 percent have been between 10-20 yards past the line of scrimmage, and just 12.4 percent have been 20-plus yards past the line.
And when Rudolph has gone deep, the results have been ugly:
On throws that are 10+ yards past the line of scrimmage, Rudolph has a 40.2 percent completion rate and a 5-to-7 TD to INT ratio. That's lousy. He has the second-fewest air yards on completed passes (4.3 on average) among all qualified QBs. Whether it's Rudolph, the game plan, a lack of deep threats at wide out or some combination thereof, he has been subpar on the rare occasions when he airs it out.
3. He's not an accurate passer.
When Rudolph has enjoyed a clean pocket, there have been times when he throws perfect darts. But when pressured, he has missed the mark at times. Overall, he has a 62.3 percent completion rate this year. That's below his 63 percent expected completion rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Expected completion rate is based on the difficult of a passer's throws and factors in variables like length of the throw, the intended receiver's separation from the nearest defenders, and game situation (down and distance). So, you can make the case that Rudolph has been slightly less accurate than the average QB when you take into account the difficulty of his throws.
When you look at the big picture with Rudolph, you get an average to below-average QB who has looked especially bad at times because of the dumpster fire of an offense that surrounds him. In any context, though, it's hard to say that Rudolph has proven that he deserves to be the Steelers QB when Ben calls it quits, or his body decides for him.
MORE STEELERS
• Watt for DPOY? It has become routine to see a Watt in the discussion for NFL Defensive Player of the Year. But this season, it's T.J. Watt who's taking up the mantle for his injured pass-rushing brother. Watt ranks first in the NFL in QB hits (24), second in forced fumbles (four), third in sacks (10.5), fourth in QB hurries (15) and 13th in tackles for loss (nine). He also has an interception during his dominant 2019 campaign. The last Steelers linebacker to win defensive DPOY was James Harrison back in 2008. Watt is on pace to notch one more sack than Harrison did when winning that hardware (17 to 16), which would give him the new single-season high for a Steeler since that became an official stat in 1982. Watt already has more QB hits than Harrison had, too(19). It has been a long time since we've seen a linebacker like Watt.
• Playoffs? Playoffs?! Just how badly did the Steelers' loss to the Browns dent their playoff odds? According to Football Outsiders, Pittsburgh entered the week with a 52 percent chance of returning to the postseason after missing out last year. After their Week 11 egg laying, their odds are down to 28 percent. You can forget about winning the AFC North (one percent), but a wild card is at least considered semi-attainable (27 percent). Of course, those odds look even more bleak if hoped-for offensive cornerstones like James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster aren't healthy.
PENGUINS
• PK killing it: While the Penguins' power play has been cover-your-eyes bad during the early portion of the season (their 14.6 percent success rate ranks 24th among NHL teams), their penalty-kill unit has been elite. Pittsburgh has killed off 89.1 percent of opposing power play opportunities, which ranks second in the league behind the San Jose Sharks. Last year, the Penguins were 19th-best on the penalty kill (79.7 percent). Kris Letang (2:03 of PK ice time per game), Jack Johnson (1:57), Brian Dumoulin (1:57), John Marino (1:50) and Teddy Blueger (1:48) have been the main contributors. Pittsburgh is allowing 43.4 shots per 60 minutes of time on the PK, which is third-best in the NHL and down from 51.6 last year (15th in the league). It likely helps that the PK is spending less time on the ice, so they're not as taxed. Pittsburgh is the second-least penalized team in the game (6.2 minutes per game), after ranking 15th in that category a season ago (8.4 minutes).
• What's with Galchenyuk? When the Penguins acquired Alex Galchenyuk as part of the return from Arizona for Phil Kessel, they envisioned the 25-year-old winger re-establishing his 30-goal form by gelling with Evgeni Malkin and getting significant power play time. Instead, Galchenyuk missed time with a lower-body injury and has averaged just 0.45 points per game in 2019-20. He's still taking a fair amount of shots (2.45 per game, compared to his 2.08 career average), but he has yet to find the back of the net. And that connection with Geno? The early returns were mixed in a small sample size. When Malkin has skated with Galchenyuk during five-on-five play, the Penguins have taken -3.3 percent fewer shots and generated -4.1 percent fewer scoring chances compared to when Malkin skated without Galchenyuk (according to Natural Stat Trick). That could be why Mike Sullivan has taken Galchenyuk off Malkin's line.
• Coming out flat: For whatever reason, the Penguins have been a markedly different--and worse--team during the first period of games. They have scored just 45 percent of the game's total goals during the first period this year, compared to 59.6 percent in the second period and 60.5 percent in the third. The flat first periods have been an especially large problem on the road, where they're scoring just 20 percent of total goals. If you're optimistic, and feel like the first period problems are just an aberration, you can point to the fact that Pittsburgh has still outshot opponents out of the gate (they're taking 53.5 percent of total first-period shots, compared to 53.2 percent in the second and 58 percent in the third).
PIRATES
• Gone fishing: Last week in this space, we examined the murky future of Colin Moran. The former top-ten overall pick's career has stalled out, thanks to subpar defense at third base and decline at the plate (his adjusted batting line went from five percent above the overall big league average in 2018 to three percent below in 2019). The main reason for the offensive downturn? Moran became one of the game's most impatient hitters. In 2018, Moran chased just 29.2 percent of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone, according to Fangraphs. Last year, he chased 39 percent of pitches located off the plate. That was way above the 31.9 percent MLB average, and was the 15th-highest rate among all qualified big league batters last season. Moran became especially jumpy against breaking stuff, as his chase rate climbed on both sliders (36 percent in '18, 48 percent in '19) and curveballs (31 percent in '18, 51 percent in '19). If Moran is going to be more than a bench player moving forward, he has to rake. Re-discovering his strike zone discipline is a key component of that goal.
• Backstop shopping: The Pirates' catching situation was a wasteland in 2019, with Francisco Cervelli succumbing to concussion problems before exiting town and Elias Diaz regressing both at and behind the plate. Jacob Stallings established himself as a viable major leaguer, but likely something short of what you would want from an everyday catcher. Depending on the club's willingness to spend, there are a few intriguing options on the free agent market. The most desired option is Yasmani Grandal, a switch-hitting on-base machine who projects to be worth nearly five Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in 2020 according to Fangraphs' composite projections for next season. WAR is a measure of a player's hitting, field and base running value compared to the type of player typically available on the waiver wire. Last year, Pirates catchers were 26th in the majors with a collective -0.4 WAR. Assuming a relatively even time share next year, Stallings and Diaz are projected to compile about 1.3 WAR. Grandal would be a major upgrade, albeit one who is 31 years old and who may command something like three years and $50 million. If they choose to go bargain hunting, keep an eye on Travis d'Arnaud. The former Mets top prospect has often been sidetracked by injuries, but he's projected to be worth about 2.5 WAR over the course of 100 or so games.
• Archer's heat: If you're trying to maintain some sense of optimism about Chris Archer entering 2020, you could start with this: his four-seam fastball was much more effective down the stretch. During the first half of the season, batters teed off for a .525 slugging percentage off Archer's four-seamer, according to MLB Statcast. During the second half, Archer limited opponents to a .375 slugging percentage on that pitch. Archer relied on his four-seamer much more often (34.5 percent of total pitches through the All-Star break, 50.4 percent after) while increasing his velocity (93.9 mph during the first half, 94.4 mph during the second). Assuming Archer enters the year healthy, and has any notion of his sinker wiped from his memory Men in Black style, he could at least be a decent mid-rotation arm for the Pirates. That's cold comfort, considering the bevy of young talent surrendered to acquire him, but's it's some salvaged value in a trade gone wrong.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Top pick QBs: The 2019 season has not been kind to quarterbacks who were selected with the first overall pick in the draft. The seven QBs taken 1-1 who have taken snaps this year have a combined completion rate that is five percent worse than the overall NFL average and an interception rate that is 23 percent below average. After a quality rookie season, Baker Mayfield has become the poster child for top pick struggles. Mayfield has played better as of late, but his completion rate is eight percent below average and his INT rate is a whopping 59 percent worse than average.
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