Has anyone managed to scrape Ryan Finley off the Paul Brown Stadium turf?
The Bengals' QB became the latest victim of a young, ascendant defense that is almost single-handedly dragging the Steelers into playoff contention despite what might be the worst offense we've seen in a couple of generations. And two of the biggest catalysts are T.J. Watt and Bud Dupree, who are proudly upholding the team's Blitzburgh reputation. The former blew up Finley for a sack and forced fumble early on Sunday in Cincinnati, while the latter virtually sealed the game with a late strip sack and fumble recovery.
In 2019, Watt his continued his climb from steady rookie to Pro Bowler to a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Dupree, meanwhile, has shed a first-round bust label while setting himself up for a major payday this upcoming offseason.
Just how good have the Steelers' outside linebackers been in 2019?
Watt ranks third in the NFL in sacks (11.5), while Dupree ranks just outside the top twenty with seven. Watt's well on his way to establishing a new career high in QB takedowns (13 in 2018), and Dupree has already surpassed his previous high-water mark of six set in 2017.
Watt, the club's 2017 first-round pick, is a candidate to break the Steelers' all-time single-season high sack total since that stat became official in 1982 (James Harrison is the current leader, with 16 back in 2008). He already holds the record for most sacks by a Steelers defender during his first three seasons (31.5), surpassing the likes of LaMarr Woodley (29 from 2007-09), Joey Porter (21.5 from 1999-2001), Keith Willis (20 from 1982-84) and Kendrell Bell (18 from 2001-03). If Watt keeps up this pace, he will finish his first three years with about 35 sacks. That would make him one of the ten best young pass-rushers in NFL history since the sack became official:
Sacks are the glamour stat, but Watt and Dupree are wreaking havoc in other ways. Watt leads the NFL in QB hits (25), and is tied with Aaron Donald for first in QB pressures (40). Dupree has a more modest ten QB hits, but that's still on track to surpass his previous career best of 13 in 2018. Ditto on pressures (he's got 20 in 2019, with a chance to best his high of 25 from 2018). Watt and Dupree are both tied for eighth among all defenders in tackles for loss (10). Watt's tied for the NFL lead in forced fumbles (five), and Dupree is tied for seventh with three. Name a way to embarrass an offensive line and terrify a QB, and you can sum it up this way: Dupree has been much improved, and Watt has been best-in-class.
In fact, T.J. can make a case for adding another Player of the Year trophy to the Watt family trophy case (which, if that's a real thing, must rival the size of the FedEx Great Hall at Heinz Field). Watt has the highest overall player grade (91) among NFL edge defenders, according to Pro Football Focus' 0-100 rating system that takes into account pass rushing, run defense and coverage ability. That just edges out the likes of Khalil Mack, Calais Campbell, Nick Bosa and his now-injured brother, J.J. Watt (90 grades each). For comparison's sake, T.J. had a 76 overall grade in 2018 and a 71 grade as a rookie in 2017. Dupree isn't in that POY conversation, but his 83 player grade ranks in the top twenty among all edge defenders and is a marked improvement over his 60 grade last season.
For the first time in years, the Steelers boast elite talent at all three levels of the defense. Watt and Dupree have altered games and clawed back wins like few other outside linebacker combos in the game and in franchise history. With Cam Heyward bulldozing people on the line, Minkah Fitzpatrick emerging as field-flipping menace and Watt and Dupree bringing the heat, the Steelers might just sneak into the postseason in spite of an offense that would make Bubby Brister blush.
MORE STEELERS
• Found: A running game: The Steelers’ rushing attack has been practically nonexistent in 2019, with the team ranking 21st in the NFL in attempts (266), 25th in yards (967) and 27th in yards per carry (3.6). But against the winless Bengals, Pittsburgh racked up a season-best 160 rushing yards led by rookie Benny Snell. The fourth-round pick out of Kentucky had 98 yards on 21 carries (4.7 yards per attempt), with most of that damage coming on runs around the edges. Snell gained 61 yards on nine carries on runs directed toward the left tackle or around the left edge, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He also had 22 yards on five carries with runs directed toward the right tackle/right edge. The running game’s performance is more impressive when you consider that Snell had eight or more defenders in the box on 62 percent of his carries, the second-highest rate among all qualified NFL running backs during Week 12.
• TEs still MIA: While the running game enjoyed a potentially season-saving resurgence, Steelers tight ends are still on the side of the Turner’s milk carton. Last year, Vance McDonald and Jesse James combined for a prolific level of production: 80 catches, 1,033 receiving yards. This season, with James in Detroit and McDonald again battling injuries, Steelers tight ends have combined for 35 catches and 284 yards. Over a full season, that’s a pace of 46 catches and 372 yards. McDonald has gone from a game-breaker—he averaged 12.2 yards per catch last year—to a dump-down option (7.6 yards per catch) in 2019. Certainly, part of his decline can be attributed to how terrible and injury-riddled the offense has been overall. But it’s also true that he’s not making much happen once the ball is in his hands. In 2018, McDonald gained an average of +2.4 more yards after the catch expected, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. That metric takes into account expected YAC based on the distance and location of the catch, as well as where the nearest defenders are on the field. Only George Kittle (+3.4) was more of a playmaker among tight ends. This year, McDonald has been about average (+0.6 more yards after the catch than expected).
PENGUINS
• Geno’s thievery: Evgeni Malkin is hardly known for his defensive prowess. But say this about him so far: The man knows how to create a turnover. With 6.02 takeaways per 60 minutes of even-strength ice time, Malkin leads all NHL players who have skated at least 100 minutes this season. And it’s not even close, with the Islanders' Mathew Barzal (5) and the Panthers' Vince Trocheck (4.95) ranking a distance second and third. That’s by far the highest takeaway rate of Geno’s career (his previous high was 3.69 in 2017-18). Now, if only he would stop turning over the puck so much himself (3.4 giveaways per 60 minutes, which ranks in the top 40 among all players this year).
• Bjugstad backslides: After making a favorable first impression in Pittsburgh, Nick Bjugstad has endured an injury-marred and underwhelming start to the 2019-20 season. The 27-year-old, who joined the Penguins last February along with Jared McCann in a deal for Derick Brassard, has just one point in ten games. And now, he's facing possibly two months on the shelf after undergoing core muscle surgery. The underlying possession stats for Bjugstad weren't much better, either. With Bjugstad skating during five-on-five play, the Penguins have taken -5.6 percent fewer of the game’s total shots compared to when he’s off the ice. That’s the second-worst rate among Penguins who have played in at least ten games, ahead of only Jack Johnson (-7.6 percent). Last year, Bjugstad boosted the Penguins’ even-strength shot share by +3 percent. Here's hoping for better health, and better production, for Bjugstad in the new year.
• Costly injuries: With Sidney Crosby joining the ranks of the walking wounded, the Penguins continue to endure more injuries--and spend more money on injured players--than just about anyone. Pittsburgh has already spent about $4.5 million of its salary cap space on injured players, according to the NHL Injury Viz website. That total is calculated by multiplying an injured player's per-game salary by the number of games that he has missed. Only Detroit ($5.75 million), Toronto ($5 million) and Ottawa ($5 million) have burned more money on injured players this season.
PIRATES
• Marte's D: Has Starling Marte's once-stellar defense slipped? The two-time Gold Glove Award winner (in left field) succeeded Andrew McCutchen as the Pirates' center fielder, and seemed to perform reasonably well in the role in 2018. Marte saved one run for the Pirates compared to an average defensive center fielder that season, according to Fangraphs' Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric. DRS compares a player's defensive value to an average player at his position, while accounting for range, throwing arm, and errors. In 2019, Marte had -9 DRS. That was tied for the fourth-worst mark among all major league center fielders, besting only Ian Desmond (-19), JaCoby Jones (-13) and Wil Myers (-10). Marte had a particular problem getting to balls on which he had to break back toward the wall. He was -5 outs below average on balls where be moved back from his original defensive position on the field, according to MLB Statcast. In 2018, he was +3 outs above average when he had to move back on balls hit in his direction. Interestingly, Marte--or the Pirates' previous coaching staff--seemingly tried to compensate by having him play father back. Marte stood an average of 326 feet from home plate last year, up from 322 feet in 2018 and 317 feet in 2017. The Pirates' new front office, and potential trade partners, will have to evaluate whether they think the 31-year-old has lost a step defensively.
• Hayes’ hitting: Everyone knows that Pirates third base prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes can field. Some have pegged the 22-year-old, who was recently added to the club’s 40-man roster, as a future Gold Glove winner. But the question is: How much can he hit? Hayes took a step back offensively, with his park and league-adjusted batting line falling from 29 percent above average at Double-A Altoona in 2018 to eight percent below average in 2019. Hayes’ walk rate declined (from 11.2 percent to nine percent), his ground ball rate increased (from 40.3 percent to 46.4 percent) and his pop up rate increased from 18.8 percent of fly balls hit to 20.7 percent). He’s young and was hampered by a hand injury last season. But, given the state of the farm system, the Pirates need Hayes to be more than a solid complementary piece.
• Tale of two fastballs: It's easy to see why Steven Brault fell in love with throwing high heat in 2019. Brault located his four-seam fastball to the upper third of the zone about 42 percent of the time, according to MLB Statcast. And while the pitch isn't all that fast by today's standards--he averaged 92.1 mph--he nonetheless dominated batters to the tune of a .296 slugging percentage on high fastballs. That's nearly 200 points below the overall MLB average in that location (.482). Problem is, Brault's fastball was obliterated when he threw it anywhere else. He surrendered a .679 slugging percentage on fastballs thrown belt-high (.610 MLB average), and .596 on low fastballs (.482 average). If he's going to establish himself as a legit, long-term MLB starter, Brault will need to find a way to establish his fastball in other portions of the zone.
THE NATIONAL TREND
• Goalies, beware: Across the NHL, players continue to light the lamp more often. Teams are averaging 3.08 goals per game so far in 2019-20, which is up from 3.01 per game last season and represents the fifth straight year in which there has been a scoring uptick. Over that time, the average has climbed from 2.71 goals per game back in 2015-16. What's behind the scoring surge? An increase in power play opportunities has certainly helped. Teams are enjoying the man advantage an average of 3.22 times per game this year, which is up from 2.92 per game is the highest rate since 2013-14 (3.27).
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