When Mike Tomlin was a senior wide receiver at William & Mary, there was a freshman walk-on defensive back that watched every move made by the upperclassman.
Sean McDermott wanted to be like Mike. And he's continued to want to be like Mike for a long time.
Now 45, McDermott is like Tomlin. Both are head coaches in the NFL, Tomlin with the Steelers and McDermott with the Bills. And both are doing an excellent job this season, with both having put their respective teams in position to make the postseason in 2019.
In fact, when the Steelers (8-5) host the Bills (9-4) Sunday night, fifth place in the AFC playoff standings will be on the line at Heinz Field.
Now in his third season with the Bills, McDermott is on the verge of taking the formerly beleaguered franchise to the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. And in many ways, Bills fans owe Tomlin for bringing them the 45-year-old head coach.
He saw how Tomlin made the jump from player to grad assistant to assistant at the collegiate level and then to the NFL.
“What Mike did was he gave me a blueprint a little bit for what it looked like,” McDermott said of how Tomlin has helped him in his coaching career. “He was such a role model for a lot of us, myself included, on campus as a younger player. He was a fourth-year senior when I got there so he was a good example for me as well as many others.
“To watch him go off and graduate and begin his coaching career and the way he did it and the way he climbed the ladder, I've always looked at him as kind of an older brother in the profession because of where we started.”
Tomlin might hope he didn't show McDermott the blueprint on how to beat the Steelers.
Neither team has locked up a spot in the postseason as of yet. But if the playoffs began today, both would be in as Wildcard teams. The Steelers can't win the AFC North as the Ravens clinched that title with a win over the Jets Thursday night. But the Bills still have a shot to catch the Patriots (10-3) in the AFC East. Those two meet next weekend at Gillette Stadium.
First, however, comes this game.
The Steelers have dealt with numerous injuries this season, including Ben Roethlisberger, but have won seven of their past eight games to get to this point.
“It’s been tremendous. I am sure Mike would say Kevin (Colbert) and him both have done a phenomenal job," McDermott said. "They have a talented roster. I know they had the injury at the quarterback position. But when you look at the depth of their roster, because they had some other injuries, that’s what you have to do. You have to have depth. Because they have been together for so long, they built that.
"You look at the wide receiver position, the running back position, that speaks of their acumen as football guys.”
Those two positions mentioned by McDermott could get a boost for the Steelers this week. James Conner is expected to return at running back after missing five of the past six weeks with a shoulder injury, while JuJu Smith-Schuster is closer to returning from a knee injury that will sideline him for the fourth straight game. Smith-Schuster could return next week.
But this game will be more about the defenses.
The Bills have won all season with their defense and running game. The Steelers? They've leaned on their defense all season, but the running game has come on in recent weeks as the team has averaged just over 140 yards per game in its past three games.
The Bills rank third in the NFL in total defense. The Steelers are fifth.
It should be a battle of wills between two teams and two head coaches who have nothing but respect for the other.
"Usually, I don’t like to speak about it. It’s not bulletin board material, but we respect it," Steelers linebacker Vince Williams told me. "That’s why I love games like this, because I have so much respect for your opponent. To me, this is way more personal than the games that might be a little chippy because of some slight disrespect. This is just good versus good and who’s going to be the best. You’ve gotta love a dog fight."
The teams are taking the cues from their head coaches.
"I’ve known Sean McDermott for a long time," Tomlin said. "That’s guy is a quality coach. (Defensive coordinator) Leslie Frazier, same thing. They’ve got a relationship that probably spans back 20 years, and you see the product of that type of continuity and that type of understanding, the type of performances that they’re putting out. So, we’re really excited about being in the five-star matchup."
THE ESSENTIALS
• Who: Steelers (8-5) vs. Bills (9-4)
• When: 8:25 p.m.
• Where: Heinz Field
• Radio: 102.5 WDVE, ESPN Pittsburgh
• Satellite: SiriusXM 226, Internet 826
• Lots open: 4:30 p.m.
• Will call open: 6:30 p.m.
• Gates open: 6:30 p.m.
• Boxscore: NFL Game Center
• Odds: MyBookie.AG
THE INJURY REPORT
Steelers: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee, out), TE Vance McDonald (concussion, out), RB James Conner (shoulder, questionable)
Bills: OG Jon Feliciano (illness, questionable), DT Corey Liuget (knee, questionable), OT Ty Nsekhe (ankle, out)
THE KEY VARIABLE
When the Bills selected Josh Allen with the seventh-overall pick in the 2018 draft, some compared the former Wyoming star to a young Ben Roethlisberger. He's big. He's mobile. And he's got a strong arm.
Allen didn't have the success Roethlisberger did as a rookie -- when he went 13-0 in leading the Steelers to a 15-1 record and the AFC Championship game -- completing just over 52 percent of his passes and throwing 10 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 12 games, 11 of them starts.
But the second-year quarterback has made progress. This season, his completion percentage is just a shade under 60 percent. He's thrown 17 touchdown passes and just eight interceptions while throwing for over 2,700 yards. He's also rushed for 439 yards and eight touchdowns, with his touchdown totals leading all quarterbacks -- even the Ravens' Lamar Jackson.
The Steelers have done a good job of shutting down some mobile quarterbacks this season, including limiting the Cardinals' Kyler Murray to two yards on six attempts. But Allen is a different animal.
"He’s a big man who runs pretty quick," Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler said. "Good player for them. You know, he’s still a young guy. This is his second year in the league. He’s still learning, but they do have designed runs for him, probably a little bit more than last week, but we’ve got to be able to stop them."
The Steelers overwhelmed the much smaller Murray, stopping him in the backfield before he could get into their secondary. At 6-foot-5, 237-pounds, Allen could be an issue if he gets into the secondary. And the Bills will run him on straight power plays between the tackles. He's not necessarily looking to get to the edge like Jackson or Murray.
"Good point there," nickel cornerback Mike Hilton told me. "But we’ve got to keep doing the same thing, get a lot of bodies to the ball and keep him contained and make sure you get some hands on him."
Opposing teams have done that. Allen has been sacked 33 times this season. The Steelers lead the NFL with 48 sacks to go along with their league-best 33 takeaways.
The Steelers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to rush for just 143 yards on 51 attempts, an average of just 2.8 yards per attempt. And they've played Jackson once already this season. Allen averages 34 rushing yards per game to supplement Buffalo's running game, but it won't be easy against the Steelers.
"They're playing extremely well, obviously, taking away the ball, sacking the quarterback at a very high rate," Allen said. "I think they lead the league in both those statistics. They’ve got some young players that are moving around well, off the edge, they get to the quarterback, they play really smart coverage. It's going to be very tough for us mentally this week and we’ve got to go in and prepare and watch as much film as we can and be ready for another four quarter game.”
THE HISTORY LESSON
The Steelers dominated the upstart Bills from the first time they played in 1970 through 1979, winning five of the six meetings between the two teams.
But from 1980 through the 1992 playoffs -- when they handed Bill Cowher's upstart team a 24-3 beatdown -- the Bills dominated the series, winning seven of eight meetings.
The tables turned, however, in the 1993 season when the 7-1 Bills visited the 5-3 Steelers at Three Rivers Stadium Nov. 15 for a Monday night game.
The Steelers knocked Jim Kelly, Andre Reed and Don Beebe out of the game, handing the Bills a 23-0 defeat that was the first shutout Buffalo since the 1985 season.
The Bills crossed midfield just twice in the game against the Steelers' top-rated defense, with defensive end Kenny Davidson sacking Kelly and knocking him out of the game with a concussion and shoulder injuries, and safety Gary Jones giving Beebe a concussion the second time the Bills dared cross midfield.
The Steelers got a 9-yard touchdown run from Leroy Thompson and a 1-yard touchdown pass from Neil O'Donnell to Eric Green, along with three Gary Anderson field goals to account for all of the game's scoring.
The Bills' high-powered offense was limited to just 157 yards, as Kelly was just 7 of 19 for 93 yards and backup Frank Reich threw for 41 yards on 4-of-9 passing. Thurman Thomas managed just 40 yards rushing on 13 carries.
Thompson, meanwhile, rushed for 108 yards on 30 carries, while Merril Hoge added 64 yards on 10 attempts for the Steelers, who gained 400 yards while holding the ball nearly 45 minutes. Thompson entered the game late in the first quarter after Barry Foster exited with a sprained ankle.
O'Donnell threw for 212 yards and a score, with Green hauling in six passes for 69 yards.
"Sometimes it can be misleading," Cowher said after the game. "We happened to get up on them and played very solid defense. It proved that we finally beat the team that's won the conference for three years. But it's only the ninth game of the season with seven to go."
The proved to be prophetic.
The Steelers would finish the season 9-7 and in second place in the AFC Central behind the Houston Oilers. They would go on to lose in Kansas City in a Wildcard game in overtime to Joe Montana.
The Bills, meanwhile, proved the game was just a blip on the radar, finishing 12-4 and beating Montana and the Chiefs in the AFC Championship to earn their fourth consecutive trip to the Super Bowl. There, they lost to the Cowboys, 30-13.
Since, the Steelers have regained their dominance in the series, winning 10 of the past 11 meetings to take a 19-6 lead in the all-time series.
THE MAIN MATCHUP
Immovable object meet unmoving object.
The Steelers rank 28th in the NFL in total offense at just 290.1 yards per game. They're 23rd in points scored at 19.9 per game.
But while they've won their past three games by scoring 16, 20 and 23 points, right on their average, the offense has looked different the past three games mostly with Devlin 'Duck' Hodges at quarterback.
Since replacing an ineffective Mason Rudolph three weeks ago, Hodges has completed 30 of 40 passes for 364 yards, two touchdowns and one interceptions in two starts.
Overall, he's 3-0 as a starter with 45 completions in 60 attempts with three touchdown passes, two interceptions and 496 yards passing, a passer rating of 101.8.
Just as importantly, the Steelers are running the ball more. In Hodges' starts, they're averaging 35 rushing attempts per game. And they've averaged 141 yards rushing per game over their past three, all without Conner. Now, they get their leading rusher back to mix in with Benny Snell, Jaylen Samuels and Kerrith Whyte.
The Steelers have been much more balanced. And they've been able to generate a running game because they've finally backed some defenders out of the box by having Hodges take and complete some shots downfield, something that wasn't happening with Rudolph.
"Duck is really aggressive with the downfield throws," wide receiver James Washington told me. "When in doubt, he throws it and gives his guys a chance. We love that. When that ball is in the air, we want it to be ours. We’re going to compete for him and try to move the offense down the field."
But it might not be easy against the Bills. While the Bills are 19th in the NFL against the run, they're third against the pass.
A big reason for that is because they don't allow any big plays. With the exception of last week's 24-17 loss to the Ravens, the Bills have largely kept their safeties deep, playing with seven defenders in the box and allowing their talented corners -- led by Pro Bowl player Tre'Davious White -- to cover things.
Only the 49ers have allowed fewer than the 26 20-yard passes given up by the Bills -- the Steelers have allowed 37 -- and four plays of 40 or more yards.
"These guys don’t beat themselves. They tackle well," Steelers offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner said. "It seems to me, just watching the tape, they play angry. We’ve got a heck of a challenge. We’re going to have to match that intensity in physicality, and then also, they just do a very nice job with utilizing their playmakers and putting them in position to make plays too."
With the Steelers running the ball an average of 35 times and throwing it 20 in Hodges' starts, the Bills could choose to bring one of the safeties in the box, something the Steelers have seen a lot of. But it's just not in their DNA. They don't mind making you work your way down the field.
"I’m expecting two deep to be honest with you, but you never really know how they’re going to play you until you get out there," Washington told me. "That’s what I’m expecting because we’ve thrown the ball (downfield) a lot more. I can see them playing with the safety down (against Baltimore) because you’ve got Lamar and their running game, so you’ve got to have extra help. But I’m thinking they’ll have two high back there."
THE QUOTES
• "It’s going to be a whole busload of people. I don’t know how many for sure, but it’s over 30. They said to bring a bus, so we’ll see how it goes." -- Terrell Edmunds, who will be the part of the first brother trio to appear in a game in the NFL since 1927, on how many family members will be on hand to watch he and his brothers Trey, a running back for the Steelers, and Tremaine, a linebacker for the Bills, compete
• "He’s always been an orator. He’s always had a way about him in terms of his command of the English language." -- McDermott on Tomlin
• "If I am awake and, in this building, and they are in the building, I am meeting with somebody. I think it is important. I live by the creed “no job too small.” We all have to roll our sleeves up and be prepared to ante up and kick in. But those are just words. The actions are more important, and I like to display that. So, I have a bunch of these personal relationships. I meet with DBs, I meet with linebackers, I meet with quarterbacks on Wednesday mornings at 7:30. You can go on and on. There is nothing unique or new that is happening in that regard. We are not paid by the hour. Our job is to win. I enjoy what I do." -- Tomlin
THE TEN DATA POINTS
• Since the league expanded to 32 teams in 2002, the Bills have gone 3-17 in games played in prime time.
• The Steelers are allowing a league-low 4.3 yards per play in their past 10 games.
• Conner has averaged 4.1 receptions per game this season, the best total of any Steelers player.
• Since their bye in Week 7, the Steelers are allowing an average of 191 passing yards per game.
• The Bills have allowed 10 runs of 20 or more yards, the fourth most in the league.
• Allen has been intercepted just eight times this season but has fumbled 14 times, second most in the league, one behind the Giants' Daniel Jones. He's lost just four of those. The Steelers are second in the NFL with 15 fumble recoveries.
• Slot receiver Cole Beasley has has been Allen’s most reliable weapon, posting 70 yards and/or scoring a touchdown in seven of Buffalo’s last eight games.
• The Steelers are 5-0 when wearing their Color Rush uniforms and are 18-11 in Sunday night games under Tomlin.
• Opposing kickers are just 10 of 18 on field goal attempts against the Bills, the worst percentage in the league. The also have missed four PAT attempts. The 12 total missed kicks against also leads the league.
• Referee Tony Corrente's crew has called 77 penalties on home teams in 12 games this season and 100 on the away teams.
FANTASY CORNER
Had a great go of it in Week 14, putting together a winning lineup. Jackson was fine against the Bills, but the real hits were Melvin Gordon, Aaron Jones, Tyler Higbee and Zach Pascal, who I put in the lineup after Will Fuller was declared out. Here's this week's lineup on the Sunday-Monday slate on DraftKings.
Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill ($6,500) -- Tannehill has been on fire and get a Houston defense that was just tortured by the Broncos.
Running backs: Chris Carson ($7,500), Raheem Mostert ($5,200) -- Carson will get all the work now that Rashard Penny is out. And Mostert has been a monster the past couple of weeks for the 49ers.
Wide receivers: A.J. Brown ($6,000), Cooper Kupp ($6,500), Allen Robinson ($6,800) -- Brown has emerged as the No. 1 guy in Tennessee and stacks with Tannehill. Kupp has been ignored the past couple of weeks, but the Cowboys are awful in the slot. He could feast. And Robinson has been on fire of late and also had 100 yards against the Packers in their previous meeting.
Tight end: Ian Thomas ($3,100) -- Playing the matchup here. The Seahawks have had issues with tight ends all season and Thomas gets the start with Greg Olson out with a concussion.
Flex: Kenyan Drake ($5,000) -- Another matchup play. The Browns have had issues stopping the run and Drake has run well against everyone not named the Steelers since coming over from Miami.
Defense: Steelers ($3,200) -- The Steelers are a bit of a bargain play this week in a good matchup against the Bills. The team with the most forced turnovers and sacks for just $3,200 at home? Yes please.
Dale Lolley (8-5): Last week in New Orleans, two of the top defenses in the league got together and the game had nearly 100 points scored. That won't happen in this game. A few things stick out about this game. First is that Buffalo record of 3-17 since 2002 in night games. The second is Allen's fumbling issue (14 in 13 games) and the Bills' relative luck in recovering 10 of them. The final is the Bills benefitting from so many missed kicks against them (12). That won't happen in this game with Chris Boswell. In fact, the biggest difference in this game could be special teams. The teams are close on both offense and defense, but -- at least according to FootballOutsiders.com, the Steelers have a massive advantage on special teams, where they rank 5th in the league and the Bills are 22nd. In a field position game, that could be the difference. And this will be that kind of game. Steelers, 16-13
Christopher Carter (6-7): It’s obvious both defenses are among the best in the NFL, but the bottom line will be game-changing plays. The Bills have given up the second-fewest points in the league but are middle of the road in creating turnovers. The Steelers make their mark by leading the NFL with 33 forced turnovers and 48 sacks. If the Steelers can win the turnover battle by at least two, I like their chances. The Bills have given up 33 sacks and Allen has the second most fumbles in the NFL with 14. Steelers, 19-13
Hunter Homistek (8-5): Yinz like defense? Because you're about to see some defense. The Bills have steadily impressed me this season, and I think they have the foundation to trouble teams on a weekly basis with their strong defense and running game combo ... which is kinda exactly what the Steelers have been doing of late. And on that front? I'm taking the Steelers defense at home in primetime. They'll cause three turnovers to help out Hodges and company, squeaking out the crucial win in the process. Steelers, 19-10
Matt Sunday (9-4): The Bills are the better team on the season coming into this game -- at least when considering their all-around game. Allen, in particular, has been a serious treat to watch. Like Lamar Jackson, Allen is having quite the breakout campaign and is lowering his shoulder to raise expectations in Buffalo. The problem? The Steelers shut down Jackson. They also shut down Kyler Murray. There is no reason to think they can't shut down Allen. Steelers, 23-20
Dejan Kovacevic (7-6): This is troublesome. Favoring the Steelers for their pluckiness over clearly inferior opponents is one thing. And by that, I mean opponents so deficient on offense that the Steelers' defense could decide the outcome. That's not Buffalo. The Bills can run, and Josh Allen has emerged as a budding NFL quarterback, if not yet a spectacular one. And that means more than a cute, cuddly output from Duck and crew will be needed. I'm doubtful. Bills, 24-13
